Another Ligue 1 campaign begins on Friday after a big window for French football, the highlight of which was Paris Saint-Germain retaining Kylian Mbappe.
New arrivals in the league include returns for Lyon duo Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso, while high-profile departures have seen Aurelien Tchouameni, Sven Botman and Nayef Aguerd depart.
With PSG once again investing heavily in their squad, adding the likes of Vitinha, Hugo Ekitike and Nordi Mukiele, the capital club are widely expected to storm to another title – but can there be an upset?
The verdict, unsurprisingly, is probably not – as Stats Perform AI predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.
These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and, while the title race is not likely to get going, there are some big battles elsewhere in the division.
PSG PARTY ONCE AGAIN
With one of the most expensive squads ever assembled, including the devastating attack of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, PSG are unsurprisingly expected to romp to another Ligue 1 success.
Having won eight of the last nine titles, Stats Perform AI has given PSG a 76.01 per cent chance of retaining their crown.
Marseille, runners-up last season, are seen as the side most capable of mounting a challenge, though their 7.29 per cent chance is slim. Monaco, title winners in 2016-17, are given a 6.55 per cent chance.
Lyon, once the dominant force in French football, have just a 4.29 per cent chance, while Rennes clock in at 3.44 per cent and Lille, the last side to prevent PSG from winning the title having lifted the trophy in 2020-21, have only a 0.71 per cent chance.
The gulf in class within French football is highlighted by the fact that nine teams, almost half of the division, are seen as having no hope in mounting a title challenge.
SCRAMBLE FOR EUROPEAN FOOTBALL
Unlike the other top leagues in European football, France has a limited number of places for qualification for UEFA competitions with just two guaranteed Champions League spots, one qualifying spot, one spot in the Europa League group stage and one in the Europa Conference League play-offs.
With PSG expected to surge to the title and take the first of the two group stage spots in the Champions League, with a 90.93 per cent likelihood, the scrap for the other automatic qualification spot could be fierce.
Marseille are seen as the favourites in that battle with a 29.97 per cent chance, with Monaco following suit with a 29.97 per cent chance.
Elsewhere, Lyon have an 18.7 per cent chance, with Rennes at 15.53 per cent, though they may have to settle for a third-place finish or a spot in the Europa League.
In the battle for fifth, and a play-off spot in the Conference League, it's also expected to be tight – with five clubs, as well as those already mentioned above, given at least a five per cent chance of reaching that spot.
Nice, Lens, Lille, Nantes and Strasbourg are all in with an outside shot of gunning for a spot in European competition, which could set up a thrilling battle.
REGULATION CHANGES INCREASE RELEGATION FIGHT
With Ligue 1 reducing to 18 teams from the 2023-24 season, the fight to avoid the drop to the second-tier will be fiercer than ever with the bottom four all being relegated – and there will be no play-offs either.
The situation looks bleak for Ajaccio (57.64 per cent chance of relegation), Clermont (57.57), Troyes (56.72) and Lorient (53.92), all of which are seen as more likely to suffer relegation than they are to avoid the drop.
Auxerre (46.58) and Toulouse (34.02) could also find themselves looking over their shoulders during the course of the season, while PSG, Marseille and Monaco are the three sides given no chance leaving the league through the bottom.
Of the promoted trio, it is Toulouse who are given the best chance of maintaining their top-flight status for another season – with their most likely position being 15th, with a 10.59 per cent chance of securing that spot.
Barcelona's Frenkie de Jong has had a long-running transfer saga this off-season.
The 25-year-old Dutchman has been linked with a move away from Camp Nou amid Barcelona's financial issues, despite their off-season spending landing Robert Lewandowski among others.
The Catalans need to offload players before they can register new signings and De Jong is surplus to requirements.
TOP STORY – CHELSEA TO HIJACK MAN UTD MOVE FOR DE JONG
Chelsea have commenced talks with Barcelona in a bid to hijack Manchester United 's move for Frenkie de Jong, reports The Athletic.
Manchester United have actively pursued the Dutch midfielder this off-season but he has been unwilling to leave the Blaugrana for Old Trafford, creating a stand-off.
De Jong, who is still owed deferred wages by Barcelona, is more open to moving to Chelsea than United, according to the report.
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– Chelsea are also considering a move for Barcelona forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang claims Fabrizio Romano. The Blues have already held talks with former Arsenal man's representatives.
– Sky Sports reports that Manchester United's pursuit of 19-year-old Slovenian forward Benjamin Sesko is heating up, having held initial discussions with his club, Austrian champions Salzburg. Fabrizio Romano claims Chelsea have also spoken to Sesko's agent.
– Chelsea remain keen on Leicester City defender Wesley Fofana and will offer him £200,000 per week according to the Mail. The Foxes want £85million for the Frenchman.
– The Sun reports that West Ham have agreed to a £35m deal with Lille for Belgian midfielder Amadou Onana. The Hammers still need to thrash out a personal agreement with Onana.
– Juventus are interested in signing Udinese left-back Destiny Udogie according to Il Bianconero, while the Daily Mail claims Antonio Conte's Tottenham are also keen on him.
– Diario Sport reports that Rayo Vallecano president Raul Martin Presa has reached a deal with Diego Costa, who wants to return to Spain after time in Brazil.
– Borussia Dortmund could be set to spend €30million to sign Almeria forward Umar Sadiq according to Mundo Deportivo. Dortmund are looking for cover as Sebastian Haller is absent due to a testicular tumour.
Lille midfielder Renato Sanches will join either Paris Saint-Germain or Milan, according to Les Dogues president Oliver Letang.
Sanches has been heavily linked with a move to the French capital as he enters the final 12 months of his contract, but Letang insisted at the end of June that the Ligue 1 champions had made no contact.
Milan are the other European side interested in the 24-year-old, with reports suggesting the Rossoneri have a €15million deal in place with Lille should they fail to agree a transfer with PSG.
Letang, speaking at a news conference on Wednesday to welcome Guinea forward Mohamed Bayo to Lille, confirmed Sanches will leave, though he remains unsure to which club yet.
"Renato has two very good possibilities, two very big clubs," he told reporters. "If he is still with us, it is because we have not reached an agreement with the clubs concerned.
"Renato is going to leave, to which club I don't know. I will keep the nature of these discussions confidential. It will be Paris or Milan."
PSG have already brought in Hugo Ekitike and Vitinha as the first signings of former Lille coach Christophe Galtier's tenure.
Sanches would provide another creative presence in midfield for Galtier's side, having created the most chances of any Lille player during his three league campaigns at the club (88 – since 2019-20).
Last season, the Portugal international also led the Lille charts for assists (five – level with Burak Yilmaz) and ranked third for successful passes in the opposition half (724).
Sanches will be hoping a move to either Milan or PSG will boost his hopes of featuring at the World Cup in Qatar for Portugal in November.
West Ham are reportedly confident they will be able to land 20-year-old Lille midfielder Amadou Onana after increasing their bid for the Belgium international.
Onana, who made his senior international debut on June 3 against the Netherlands in Nations League action, enjoyed a terrific first season in Ligue 1 after leaving Hamburg in Bundesliga 2 for a £6million fee.
The defensive midfielder totalled 41 club appearances in the season, including eight games in the Champions League, but the Hammers may face some competition for his signature from within the Premier League.
TOP STORY – WEST HAM SET SIGHTS ON LILLE'S BIG BELGIAN YOUNGSTER
According to The Athletic, West Ham had a £25million bid rejected by the French club, but the Evening Standard claims that the English side are confident an increased bid of £30m plus add-ons will get the job done.
However, The Athletic's report states that there is also interest in Onana coming from Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle United, which could throw a wrench in West Ham's plans.
West Ham appear to still have plenty of business to take care of, with the Evening Standard also linking them with a £30m move for 20-year-old Chelsea striker Armando Broja, as well as trying to convince Jesse Lingard to return after a successful loan stint in the latter half of the 2020-2021 season.
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– According to Sport, Barcelona are trying to attach Memphis Depay to their offer for Sevilla centre-back Jules Kounde after not meeting the €65m asking price, while Marca claims Chelsea have already agreed to personal terms with him and have offered Sevilla €55m.
– AS is reporting that Atletico Madrid have enquired with Cristiano Ronaldo's representatives about the superstar's interest in joining the club.
– Leeds United and West Ham are said to be competing for £34m Rennes striker Martin Terrier, according to L'Equipe.
– Calciomercato claims Paris Saint-Germain have been offering Georginio Wijnaldum to Roma and Milan in an effort to move him on from the club, despite arriving on a free transfer 12 months ago.
– Fabrizio Romano claims Manchester City have a bid ready to go for 23-year-old Brighton fullback Marc Cucurella to replace the outgoing Oleksandr Zinchenko.
A return to Real Madrid would be the best move for Cristiano Ronaldo, according to Portugal team-mate Jose Fonte.
The five-time Ballon d'Or winner has reportedly asked for a move away from Manchester United, just one season after returning to Old Trafford from Juventus.
Despite scoring 24 goals during the 2021-22 campaign, Ronaldo could only help United to a sixth-place finish in the Premier League, thus missing out on qualification for the Champions League.
Having been due to return to training on Monday before he was granted extra time off due to a family issue, Ronaldo is set to miss the club's pre-season tour of Thailand and Australia, with the squad set to depart on Friday.
That has further fuelled widespread speculation the 37-year-old's second spell with the Red Devils is nearing its end.
The Portugal skipper was linked with a move to Bayern Munich, though chief executive Oliver Kahn has ruled out an approach from the Bundesliga champions.
But international team-mate Fonte believes a return to Madrid would be the best outcome for Ronaldo, who won four Champions Leagues and two LaLiga titles with Los Blancos between 2009 and 2018, as well as becoming the club's all-time leading scorer with 450 goals.
Lille defender Fonte, who along with Ronaldo was part of the Portugal squad that won Euro 2016, told talkSPORT: "What I do know is that the man loves the Champions League.
"He believes it is the best competition in the world and knows how he has to perform [in it] to win Ballons d'Or.
"He needs to be winning trophies and competing for trophies for the Ballon d'Or. He is a serial winner, as everyone knows.
"He might be looking at the [United] squad and thinking, 'Am I going to be able to win some trophies this year?' Maybe he doesn't believe it. I don't know. Only he can say.
"Would he go back to Madrid? That would be, for him, the best. If they want him back or not, that's a different question."
Zeki Celik has become Jose Mourinho's third signing of the transfer window at Roma, joining from Lille for a reported €7million fee.
Celik, who has signed a four-year contract with the Serie A club, was said to be of interest to Mourinho when he was Tottenham coach.
He follows midfielder Nemanja Matic and goalkeeper Mile Svilar – both of whom were free transfers – to Rome.
"For me, it is an honour to play for such an important club," Celik said. "I have great ambitions and I want to contribute to the success of the team.
"I feel ready and focused. I never give up, and you will always see me fighting on the pitch."
Celik spent four seasons at Lille, winning the Ligue 1 title in 2020-21.
However, that successful team has been broken up over the past 12 months, with Mike Maignan, Boubakary Soumare, Jonathan Ikone, Sven Botman and now Celik all moved on.
Renato Sanches is thought to be a transfer target for both Paris Saint-Germain and Milan.
Sven Botman is hoping to help Newcastle United in their goal to "get to the top" after finalising his move from Lille.
Newcastle confirmed earlier this week a deal, worth a reported upfront cost of £31.8million (€37m), had been reached with Lille to sign the central defender.
That transfer was made official on Friday, with the ambitious Premier League club seeing off interest from a number of other teams, including Serie A champions Milan.
Netherlands Under-21 international Botman becomes Newcastle's third signing of the window following the permanent capture of Matt Targett and the arrival of Nick Pope.
Eddie Howe's side continue to be linked with an array of other players, and Botman is confident he has made the right choice in moving to St James' Park.
"I'm really happy – delighted – and I can't wait to start this new adventure," Botman, who penned a five-year contract, told Newcastle's official website.
"This is the best day of my life, to sign a contract with Newcastle United. It's a day I've worked hard for and I'm very excited.
"Newcastle had a long-term plan to get to the top, for both me and for the club, and they play in the Premier League which is the best league in Europe.
"The whole package is just perfect. I'm looking forward now to meeting the fans and also my new team-mates."
Newcastle may reportedly pay up to £35m for Botman, which would make him their third-most expensive signing behind Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton (both £40m).
Botman won the Ligue 1 title during his two years with Lille, having previously emerged through Ajax's youth system without making a competitive senior appearance.
"I'm delighted Sven is joining us. He is technically very good, physically very good and has a great attitude," Newcastle boss Howe added.
"At 22, he already has solid experience at the top level but he is at a great age to grow with this team.
"I am looking forward to getting to work with him and seeing him with his new team-mates."
Newcastle begin their 2022-23 Premier League season at home against newly promoted Nottingham Forest on August 6.
Sven Botman considered Newcastle United "a little better" than Milan as he weighed up his transfer options, settling on a "dream" Premier League move.
Lille defender Botman is expected to complete his move to Newcastle on Friday, with a deal in principle announced earlier this week.
That reported £31.8million (€37m) agreement brought to an end a long-running saga, with the centre-back the subject of interest from both Newcastle and Milan.
Botman discussed the merits of signing for both clubs following a January window in which neither could convince Lille to sell.
Milan initially seemed favourites to finally land their man following the 2021-22 season, but they could not match Newcastle's offer.
And Botman explained to De Telegraaf: "Newcastle's great project and the chance to play in the Premier League were two decisive aspects in making a decision.
"Milan had also given me good feelings, but Newcastle more so; they seemed a little better.
"I've been dreaming of the Premier League all my life and now this dream comes true."
Botman revealed he was concerned after missing out on a January transfer, believing such opportunities "only pass once".
But he was ultimately pleased to stick around, face Chelsea in the Champions League and depart Lille "in the right way", still joining Newcastle.
Lille president Oliver Letang has denied there have been discussions with Paris Saint-Germain regarding Renato Sanches.
The 24-year-old Portugal international has been heavily linked with a move to the French capital as he is poised to enter the final 12 months of his contract.
Reports have suggested Sanches is closing in on a move to Paris, who are expected to appoint former Lille boss Christophe Galtier as Mauricio Pochettino's successor, with it suggested the midfielder had arrived in the city on Thursday to finalise a transfer.
However, those claims have been rebuffed by Letang as he offered an olive branch to other interested clubs – confirming one offer from an unnamed side.
Milan appeared favourites for Sanches' signature for a long time. They were interested in his Lille team-mate Sven Botman, too, but saw the defender instead head for Newcastle United.
"There are players who can leave and there are players who can't leave. Without naming them today, we want to keep a competitive team," Letang told a press conference after Lille appointed Paulo Fonseca as their new coach.
"Renato is one of the boys who still has a year left on his contract. Renato could or should have gone to Barcelona last summer, before he injured his meniscus.
"As of today, we've had no contact with PSG. We have seen lots of rumours about offers, but we've received no offer from PSG.
"Other clubs are interested, especially one great European club, who have already made us offers. That’s the situation with Renato."
Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel is eager to bring in two attacking players this off-season following their third-place Premier League finish last term.
The club's new owners are set to back Tuchel's plans, with the Blues linked to Raheem Sterling, Barcelona's Ousmane Dembele and Everton's Richarlison.
However, Chelsea could be set for their first splash of the window by signing a superstar from Elland Road.
TOP STORY – CHELSEA TO WIN RAPHINHA RACE
Chelsea are set to win the race to sign Leeds United's Brazilian forward Raphinha claims The Guardian.
Raphinha is being pursued by Arsenal and Barcelona along with the Blues, who are set to complete a £55million deal for the 25-year-old.
The winger is contracted with Leeds until 2024 and may follow Kalvin Phillips out of Elland Road with the England midfielder set to complete his move to Manchester City.
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- The Mail reports Chelsea are also interested in a move for Inter defender Milan Skriniar who has been linked with Paris Saint-Germain. L'Equipe claims that PSG's initial offer for the Slovakian was worth €50m.
- Portugal midfielder Renato Sanches is eager to join PSG from Lille according to Le Parisien, with a €10m offer on the table. Sanches has one year remaining on his contract.
- Univision reports that LAFC are not pursuing Atletico Madrid forward Luis Suarez amid speculation linking the Uruguayan with the MLS club after they recently landed Gareth Bale and Giorgio Chiellini.
- Milan are looking into swooping to sign Juventus' Paulo Dybala who has been heavily linked with Inter, claims RadioRadio.
- Liverpool's Divock Origi is set to join Milan on a four-year deal pending a medical as widely reported by the Italian media.
- Argentinean outlet Relevo reports that Angel Di Maria is set to sign a deal with Juventus on Wednesday, having left PSG as a free agent.
Sven Botman is belatedly leaving Lille to sign for Newcastle United in a reported £31.8million (€37m) transfer.
Botman had been linked to both big-spending Premier League side Newcastle and Serie A champions Milan since January.
The defender discussed "very concrete" interest from both clubs, describing a "good project" at Newcastle, only for Lille to reject the Magpies' advances in the middle of the season.
Newcastle and Milan appeared to be frustrated at the start of this transfer window, too, with Lille demanding a significant fee for a player determined to leave Ligue 1.
But Eddie Howe's Newcastle forged a breakthrough late last week and agreed a deal that has now been confirmed following a medical on Tyneside.
The Magpies on Tuesday revealed that the formalities of the transfer are set to be concluded this week, with the 22-year then officially becoming a Newcastle player.
Botman, a former Ajax academy graduate who won Ligue 1 in his first season in France, has agreed terms to put pen to paper a five-year contract at St James' Park.
Following the signings of Matt Targett and Nick Pope, Botman would appear likely to come into Howe's team ahead of Dan Burn, another powerful, left-footed centre-back who was signed in his stead in January.
Burn won 4.3 aerial duels and made 6.1 clearances and 0.9 blocks per 90 minutes after signing from Brighton and Hove Albion for £13m, beating Botman's marks for the 2021-22 season in each metric (2.3, 4.5, 0.8).
But Howe will hope Botman can be key to Newcastle's development into a more possession-focused side; he completed 53.4 passes per 90 with Lille to Burn's 28.6 at Newcastle.
Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro might make a seemingly eternal midfield composition, but Real Madrid still need to prepare for life after them.
Following the signings of Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni over the past two off-season transfer windows, Los Blancos will look for a third.
Reports suggest that what they are looking for is penalty area threat, and the intent is not necessarily to replace the attributes of the three veterans. All signs point to Germany, and Borussia Dortmund's England international Jude Bellingham.
TOP STORY – REAL MADRID EYE BELLINGHAM AS FINAL PIECE OF MIDFIELD PUZZLE
Real Madrid will look to sign Bellingham in the 2023 off-season transfer window, according to Diario AS.
According to reports, Bellingham does not have a release clause in his deal at Dortmund and with his contract running to 2025, with the German club seeking a sale in excess of €100million.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid will not look to be the only suitors, with Chelsea and Liverpool also interested.
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- Having already opened talks over Raheem Sterling, the Telegraph reports Chelsea are also looking to sign Manchester City's Nathan Ake.
- Meanwhile, Milan are considering a move for Chelsea winger Hakim Ziyech, per Calciomercato.
- Tottenham want to sign Everton duo Richarlison and Anthony Gordon, according to Sky Sports.
- Christophe Galtier is close to being named as PSG's new boss, with Mauricio Pochettino on the way out, ESPN reports.
Milan's Serie A triumph played out amid a tumultuous boardroom backdrop.
And the Rossoneri's notoriously thrifty project could now test Paolo Maldini's patience, with the need to bolster their squad for domestic and continental competitions not yet being met.
The Italian champions reportedly losing out on long-desired targets could potentially bring the subject of Maldini's future to the fore again.
TOP STORY – MILAN TO LOSE OUT ON SANCHES, BOTMAN
Milan look set to miss out on the signings of Lille pair Renato Sanches and Sven Botman, according to Calciomercato.
Although the Rossoneri had agreed personal terms with Sanches several months ago, Paris Saint-Germain are set to double Milan's offer to Lille of €15million.
They face a similar dynamic with defender Botman, who also agreed personal terms with Milan, as fellow long-term suitors Newcastle United attempt to swoop.
With Maldini and right-hand-man Ricky Massara's contracts to expire at the end of the month, these failings will likely create inconvenient tension.
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– Chelsea are interested in signing Manchester City and England forward Raheem Sterling, according to Fabrizio Romano.
– Meanwhile, The Sun is reporting the Blues are set to sign Ousmane Dembele, but the winger will demand a starting spot instead of a squad role.
– Manchester United are hoping Barcelona reduce their asking price for Frenkie de Jong, per The Athletic.
– Liverpool are bracing for the eventual departure of Mohamed Salah as contract renewal talks stall, the Mirror reports.
Paris Saint-Germain eased to a record-equalling 10th Ligue 1 title in the 2021-22 campaign, with Lille and Monaco the likely contenders to challenge the French giants in the following campaign.
Mauricio Pochettino's future remains uncertain at PSG despite securing the French top-flight title with four games to spare last season, with Nice's Christophe Galtier linked with the potential vacancy.
PSG have to wait until the ninth matchday to face Nice on October 2, but visit Lyon the game before on September 18 and face early clashes with Lille and Monaco on matchday four and five respectively.
The Ligue 1 champions host Marseille in the season's first Le Classique meeting on October 16, while PSG will have to negotiate a tricky period in February.
PSG visit Monaco on February 12 and Marseille two weeks later, either side of a home clash with Lille, who were the last side to deny Les Parisiens the championship in the 2020-21 term.
Away trips to AJ Auxerre and Strasbourg then precede a final matchday home clash with Clermont as PSG search for their ninth Ligue 1 crown in the last 11 seasons.
PSG's Ligue 1 fixtures in full:
07/08/2022 - Clermont (a)
14/08/2022 - Montpellier (h)
21/08/2022 - Lille (a)
28/08/2022 - Monaco (h)
31/08/2022 - Toulouse (a)
04/09/2022 - Nantes (a)
11/09/2022 - Brest (h)
18/09/2022 - Lyon (a)
02/10/2022 - Nice (h)
09/10/2022 - Reims (a)
16/10/2022 - Marseille (h)
23/10/2022 - AC Ajaccio (a)
30/10/2022 - Troyes (h)
06/11/2022 - Lorient (a)
13/11/2022 - AJ Auxerre (h)
28/12/2022 - Strasbourg (h)
01/01/2023 - Lens (a)
11/01/2023 - Angers (h)
15/01/2023 - Rennes (a)
29/01/2023 - Reims (h)
01/02/2023 - Montpellier (a)
05/02/2023 - Toulouse (h)
12/02/2023 - Monaco (a)
19/02/2023 - Lille (h)
26/02/2023 - Marseille (a)
05/03/2023 - Nantes (h)
12/03/2023 - Brest (a)
19/03/2023 - Rennes (h)
02/04/2023 - Lyon (h)
09/04/2023 - Nice (a)
16/04/2023 - Lens (h)
23/04/2023 - Angers (a)
30/04/2023 - Lorient (h)
07/05/2023 - Troyes (a)
14/05/2023 - AC Ajaccio (h)
21/05/2023 - AJ Auxerre (a)
27/05/2023 - Strasbourg (a)
03/06/2023 - Clermont (h)
Lille have confirmed they have mutually agreed to terminate the contract of head coach Jocelyn Gourvennec.
The former Guingamp and Bordeaux boss took the reins at Stade Pierre Mauroy as the replacement for Christophe Galtier, who left for Nice after improbably winning the 2020-21 Ligue 1 title ahead of Paris-Saint Germain.
However, Gourvennec was unable to even come close to matching the achievement last season, finishing 10th with just 55 points.
He did guide the club to the last 16 of the Champions League before being eliminated by Chelsea.
Early reports suggest former Roma and Shakhtar Donetsk head coach Paulo Fonseca is in line to replace Gourvennec.
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