Another Ligue 1 campaign begins on Friday after a big window for French football, the highlight of which was Paris Saint-Germain retaining Kylian Mbappe.
New arrivals in the league include returns for Lyon duo Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso, while high-profile departures have seen Aurelien Tchouameni, Sven Botman and Nayef Aguerd depart.
With PSG once again investing heavily in their squad, adding the likes of Vitinha, Hugo Ekitike and Nordi Mukiele, the capital club are widely expected to storm to another title – but can there be an upset?
The verdict, unsurprisingly, is probably not – as Stats Perform AI predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.
These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and, while the title race is not likely to get going, there are some big battles elsewhere in the division.
PSG PARTY ONCE AGAIN
With one of the most expensive squads ever assembled, including the devastating attack of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, PSG are unsurprisingly expected to romp to another Ligue 1 success.
Having won eight of the last nine titles, Stats Perform AI has given PSG a 76.01 per cent chance of retaining their crown.
Marseille, runners-up last season, are seen as the side most capable of mounting a challenge, though their 7.29 per cent chance is slim. Monaco, title winners in 2016-17, are given a 6.55 per cent chance.
Lyon, once the dominant force in French football, have just a 4.29 per cent chance, while Rennes clock in at 3.44 per cent and Lille, the last side to prevent PSG from winning the title having lifted the trophy in 2020-21, have only a 0.71 per cent chance.
The gulf in class within French football is highlighted by the fact that nine teams, almost half of the division, are seen as having no hope in mounting a title challenge.
SCRAMBLE FOR EUROPEAN FOOTBALL
Unlike the other top leagues in European football, France has a limited number of places for qualification for UEFA competitions with just two guaranteed Champions League spots, one qualifying spot, one spot in the Europa League group stage and one in the Europa Conference League play-offs.
With PSG expected to surge to the title and take the first of the two group stage spots in the Champions League, with a 90.93 per cent likelihood, the scrap for the other automatic qualification spot could be fierce.
Marseille are seen as the favourites in that battle with a 29.97 per cent chance, with Monaco following suit with a 29.97 per cent chance.
Elsewhere, Lyon have an 18.7 per cent chance, with Rennes at 15.53 per cent, though they may have to settle for a third-place finish or a spot in the Europa League.
In the battle for fifth, and a play-off spot in the Conference League, it's also expected to be tight – with five clubs, as well as those already mentioned above, given at least a five per cent chance of reaching that spot.
Nice, Lens, Lille, Nantes and Strasbourg are all in with an outside shot of gunning for a spot in European competition, which could set up a thrilling battle.
REGULATION CHANGES INCREASE RELEGATION FIGHT
With Ligue 1 reducing to 18 teams from the 2023-24 season, the fight to avoid the drop to the second-tier will be fiercer than ever with the bottom four all being relegated – and there will be no play-offs either.
The situation looks bleak for Ajaccio (57.64 per cent chance of relegation), Clermont (57.57), Troyes (56.72) and Lorient (53.92), all of which are seen as more likely to suffer relegation than they are to avoid the drop.
Auxerre (46.58) and Toulouse (34.02) could also find themselves looking over their shoulders during the course of the season, while PSG, Marseille and Monaco are the three sides given no chance leaving the league through the bottom.
Of the promoted trio, it is Toulouse who are given the best chance of maintaining their top-flight status for another season – with their most likely position being 15th, with a 10.59 per cent chance of securing that spot.
Everton 0-0 Newcastle United: Pickford penalty heroics deny Goodison old boy Gordon
Everton old boy Anthony Gordon saw a penalty saved on his return to Goodison Park as Newcastle United were held to a 0-0 draw on Saturday.
Gordon had been Newcastle's spot-kick hero a week earlier, winning and converting a penalty to earn a point against Manchester City, but his failure this time cost the Magpies.
After James Tarkowski's foolish foul on Sandro Tonali gave Gordon, who left Everton for Newcastle in January 2023, his opportunity from 12 yards, he could not find a way past England team-mate Jordan Pickford.
The save from Pickford was heartily celebrated by the Everton fans, though their fury was directed at referee Craig Pawson midway through the second half, when Dominic Calvert-Lewin felt he too should have had a penalty.
Idrissa Gueye missed a huge chance as part of that incident, before Gordon was wasteful again late on as both sides were forced to settle for a point.
It nudges Sean Dyche's side further clear of the relegation zone, while Newcastle can at least take solace in a place in the top six.
Data Debrief: Gordon's Goodison nightmare
Gordon was at the centre of attention right from the outset, jeered by the Everton fans and on the end of a number of heavy challenges from his former team-mates. He won four fouls, more than any other player on the pitch.
So the Newcastle winger was clearly determined to provide a response when the visitors were awarded a penalty, stepping up as he had against City but this time denied by Pickford. This was Pickford's first Premier League penalty save since May 2023, ending a run of eight consecutive concessions against a man he knows so well from both club and international duty.
Gordon should have done better late on, too. He had only two shots, but they were worth a combined 0.87 xG – more than Everton's total of 0.73.
Manchester City 3-2 Fulham: Kovacic's brace helps champions keep pressure on Liverpool
Mateo Kovacic's brace helped Manchester City come from behind to beat Fulham 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium.
The former Chelsea midfielder struck either side of half-time, with Jeremy Doku also on target, to give Pep Guardiola's side their first win in three in the Premier League and keep the pressure on leaders Liverpool, who beat Crystal Palace earlier on Saturday.
City fell behind midway through the first half when Andreas Pereira volleyed in Raul Jimenez's back-heeled cross from close range, but Fulham passed up chances to add to their lead.
Kovacic's goals either side of half-time, and a clinching third from Doku ultimately made the visitors pay for their wastefulness, although substitute Rodrigo Muniz set up a nervy finish for the champions when he halved the deficit with two minutes to play.
City held on to stay second and move onto 17 points – one behind Liverpool – while Fulham remain sixth on 11 ahead of seventh-placed Newcastle United playing later in the day.
Data Debrief: 400 up for Walker as City hit half-century
In the second half, Kyle Walker sprinted on for his 400th Premier League appearance, becoming the 44th different player to hit the milestone.
His defensive efforts helped City equal their club record of 30 consecutive unbeaten Premier League games, while they are now 50 without defeat at home across all competitions - becoming only the fourth English top-flight side to achieve that feat.
However, they are now without a clean sheet in nine straight league games on home soil - equalling their club record - but Fulham could not take advantage, suffering their first defeat after scoring the opening goal in 20 matches.
Djokovic recovers from slow start to move past Michelsen on Shanghai return
Novak Djokovic marked his Shanghai Masters return with a hard-fought straight-sets win over Alex Michelsen.
The four-time champion, who is appearing in this event for the first time since 2019, required two tie-breaks before prevailing 7-6 (7-3) 7-6 (11-9) in just under two hours.
Djokovic, still donning a protective sleeve over his right knee, made a slow start in only his second match since losing to Alexei Popyrin in the US Open third round, winning just four points in the first three games as he fell 4-1 behind.
However, the 24-time major winner broke back in the seventh game before dominating the tie-break for first blood.
Roles were reversed in the second set as Michelsen cancelled out an earlier break in game seven.
However, the American squandered two set points to level and was eventually punished by Djokovic, who will play either 28th seed Flavio Cobolli or three-time major winner Stan Wawrinka in the next round.
Data Debrief: Djokovic continues American dominance
Djokovic was given an early scare, but his experience eventually showed as he came through.
Including team events, the Serb has now won his last 33 ATP-level matches against American opponents, with his last such defeat coming against Sam Querrey at Wimbledon in 2016.
The 24-time major winner also demonstrated his determination when the pressure intensified, and he has now come through 12 of his 16 tie-breaks played this season.
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
