Ligue 1 2022-23: PSG to romp to another title while European battle attracts interest - Stats Perform AI predicts

By Sports Desk August 04, 2022

Another Ligue 1 campaign begins on Friday after a big window for French football, the highlight of which was Paris Saint-Germain retaining Kylian Mbappe.

New arrivals in the league include returns for Lyon duo Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso, while high-profile departures have seen Aurelien Tchouameni, Sven Botman and Nayef Aguerd depart.

With PSG once again investing heavily in their squad, adding the likes of Vitinha, Hugo Ekitike and Nordi Mukiele, the capital club are widely expected to storm to another title – but can there be an upset?

The verdict, unsurprisingly, is probably not – as Stats Perform AI predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.

These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and, while the title race is not likely to get going, there are some big battles elsewhere in the division.

PSG PARTY ONCE AGAIN

With one of the most expensive squads ever assembled, including the devastating attack of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, PSG are unsurprisingly expected to romp to another Ligue 1 success.

Having won eight of the last nine titles, Stats Perform AI has given PSG a 76.01 per cent chance of retaining their crown.

Marseille, runners-up last season, are seen as the side most capable of mounting a challenge, though their 7.29 per cent chance is slim. Monaco, title winners in 2016-17, are given a 6.55 per cent chance.

Lyon, once the dominant force in French football, have just a 4.29 per cent chance, while Rennes clock in at 3.44 per cent and Lille, the last side to prevent PSG from winning the title having lifted the trophy in 2020-21, have only a 0.71 per cent chance.

The gulf in class within French football is highlighted by the fact that nine teams, almost half of the division, are seen as having no hope in mounting a title challenge.

 

SCRAMBLE FOR EUROPEAN FOOTBALL

Unlike the other top leagues in European football, France has a limited number of places for qualification for UEFA competitions with just two guaranteed Champions League spots, one qualifying spot, one spot in the Europa League group stage and one in the Europa Conference League play-offs.

With PSG expected to surge to the title and take the first of the two group stage spots in the Champions League, with a 90.93 per cent likelihood, the scrap for the other automatic qualification spot could be fierce.

Marseille are seen as the favourites in that battle with a 29.97 per cent chance, with Monaco following suit with a 29.97 per cent chance.

Elsewhere, Lyon have an 18.7 per cent chance, with Rennes at 15.53 per cent, though they may have to settle for a third-place finish or a spot in the Europa League.

In the battle for fifth, and a play-off spot in the Conference League, it's also expected to be tight – with five clubs, as well as those already mentioned above, given at least a five per cent chance of reaching that spot.

Nice, Lens, Lille, Nantes and Strasbourg are all in with an outside shot of gunning for a spot in European competition, which could set up a thrilling battle.

 

REGULATION CHANGES INCREASE RELEGATION FIGHT

With Ligue 1 reducing to 18 teams from the 2023-24 season, the fight to avoid the drop to the second-tier will be fiercer than ever with the bottom four all being relegated – and there will be no play-offs either.

The situation looks bleak for Ajaccio (57.64 per cent chance of relegation), Clermont (57.57), Troyes (56.72) and Lorient (53.92), all of which are seen as more likely to suffer relegation than they are to avoid the drop.

Auxerre (46.58) and Toulouse (34.02) could also find themselves looking over their shoulders during the course of the season, while PSG, Marseille and Monaco are the three sides given no chance leaving the league through the bottom.

Of the promoted trio, it is Toulouse who are given the best chance of maintaining their top-flight status for another season – with their most likely position being 15th, with a 10.59 per cent chance of securing that spot.

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    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • France come from behind to beat Chile in entertaining clash in Marseille France come from behind to beat Chile in entertaining clash in Marseille

    France returned to winning ways after coming from behind and then holding on to beat Chile 3-2 in an entertaining friendly in Marseille.

    Youssouf Fofana cancelled out Marcelino Nunez’s early opener for Chile and after Randal Kolo Muani had given France a half-time lead, Olivier Giroud put them 3-1 up before Dario Osorio’s late effort for the South Americans.

    France head coach Didier Deschamps’ made nine changes after Saturday’s 2-0 loss to Germany in Lyon and was rewarded with a much-improved display at the Orange Velodrome.

    France conceded after just seven seconds against Germany at the weekend and went behind to another early goal when Nunez buried a low angled shot after being picked out in the area by Mauricio Isla’s cut-back.

    Les Bleus gradually grew into the game and equalised with their first shot on target in the 18th minute.

    Kylian Mbappe teed up Fofana on the edge of the box and the Monaco midfielder’s curled effort took a slight deflection off Chile defender Igor Lichnovsky on its way into the net.

    A second goal seven minutes later put France in control. Theo Hernandez crossed from the left and Paris St Germain striker Kolo Muani rose above two Chile defenders to head home his third goal in four international appearances.

    Alexis Sanchez, who set a new record of 162 appearance for Chile, teed up Dario Osorio shortly before half-time, but the latter’s shot was just too high.

    Mbappe blazed over for France soon after the restart and Giroud’s deflected header was easily held before an end-to-end spell of action.

    Chile striker Eduardo Vargas’ fine header from Gabriel Suazo’s cross hit a post and France substitute Jules Kounde lashed a shot narrowly over.

    France extended their lead in the 72nd minute as Kolo Muani wriggled free of Lichnovsky’s challenge and crossed low for Giroud to side-foot home his 57th goal for his country.

    Osorio set up a grandstand finish by firing a brilliant low shot into the bottom corner from the edge of the area in the 82nd minute.

    And Chile substitute Ben Brereton Diaz was denied by William Saliba’s last-ditch tackle as the Sheffield United striker bore down on goal in an exciting finish.

  • France 3-2 Chile: Mbappe matches Henry record in comeback victory France 3-2 Chile: Mbappe matches Henry record in comeback victory

    France got back to winning ways as they came from behind to beat Chile 3-2 at Stade Velodrome.

    Les Bleus endured a poor start for the second time in as many games, falling behind after just six minutes in Marseille through Marcelino Nunez's finish.

    However, they turned the contest on its head before half-time with Youssouf Fofana equalising and Randal Kolo Muani heading them in front.

    Olivier Giroud ultimately got the winner for Didier Deschamps' side who, despite Dario Osorio's late strike, completed their Euro 2024 preparations with a ninth victory in 12 games since their 2022 World Cup final defeat to Argentina.

    France, who conceded after just seven seconds against Germany on Saturday, were punished for another slow start as a neat one-two down the right flank enabled Mauricio Isla to pull the ball back for Nunez to drive home.

    Despite losing Jonathan Clauss and Eduardo Camavinga to injury during the first half, Les Bleus responded well and levelled in the 19th minute when Kylian Mbappe teed up Fofana, who found the net from 20 yards via a slight Igor Lichnovsky deflection.

    Mbappe went close himself before the hosts turned matters around when Kolo Muani rose to head home Theo Hernandez’s deep cross.

    However, France survived scares either side of the break with Eduardo Vargas twice failing to hit the target from inside the six-yard box, heading against the post with his second attempt.

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    Chile threatened a dramatic fightback when Osorio drilled home eight minutes from time, and it took William Saliba's superb last-ditch sliding challenge to deny Ben Brereton Diaz an equaliser right at the death.

    Mbappe moves level with Henry to lead France revival 

    Deschamps' team had not suffered successive defeats since June 2015, though it looked a possibility when they fell behind in the sixth minute.

    But the revival began when Mbappe set up Fofana, who continued his fine scoring streak with his third international goal in four appearances.

    Although Mbappe did not find the net himself, he still managed to achieve yet another milestone courtesy of his 27th assist for Les Blues, moving him joint-second with Thierry Henry on France's all-time list, he now has Antoine Griezmann's record of 30 in sight.

    The skipper could well surpass that at Euro 2024, where France will be among the favourites when they launch their quest for a third title against Austria in Group D on June 17.

    Chile's rapid start proves academic on Sanchez's record-breaking night

    Having begun Ricardo Gareca's reign with a morale-boosting 3-0 victory over the in-form Albania, Chile built on that momentum with their fast start this time around.

    Nunez's strike after just five minutes and 12 seconds was their quickest goal since Alexis Sanchez found the net one second earlier against Germany in the 2017 Confederations Cup.

    Speaking of Sanchez, the Inter forward enjoyed a momentous night, as he surpassed Gary Medel to become Chile's most-capped player.

    One of three players to feature in his nation's last meeting with France in August 2011 – along with Claudio Bravo and Mauricio Isla – it was quite fitting that his landmark 162nd appearance came at the home of Marseille, for whom he scored 18 goals in 44 games last season.

    Chile now switch focus to their forthcoming Copa America campaign, which begins against Gareca's former employers Peru on June 22.

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