Another Ligue 1 campaign begins on Friday after a big window for French football, the highlight of which was Paris Saint-Germain retaining Kylian Mbappe.
New arrivals in the league include returns for Lyon duo Alexandre Lacazette and Corentin Tolisso, while high-profile departures have seen Aurelien Tchouameni, Sven Botman and Nayef Aguerd depart.
With PSG once again investing heavily in their squad, adding the likes of Vitinha, Hugo Ekitike and Nordi Mukiele, the capital club are widely expected to storm to another title – but can there be an upset?
The verdict, unsurprisingly, is probably not – as Stats Perform AI predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.
These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and, while the title race is not likely to get going, there are some big battles elsewhere in the division.
PSG PARTY ONCE AGAIN
With one of the most expensive squads ever assembled, including the devastating attack of Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, PSG are unsurprisingly expected to romp to another Ligue 1 success.
Having won eight of the last nine titles, Stats Perform AI has given PSG a 76.01 per cent chance of retaining their crown.
Marseille, runners-up last season, are seen as the side most capable of mounting a challenge, though their 7.29 per cent chance is slim. Monaco, title winners in 2016-17, are given a 6.55 per cent chance.
Lyon, once the dominant force in French football, have just a 4.29 per cent chance, while Rennes clock in at 3.44 per cent and Lille, the last side to prevent PSG from winning the title having lifted the trophy in 2020-21, have only a 0.71 per cent chance.
The gulf in class within French football is highlighted by the fact that nine teams, almost half of the division, are seen as having no hope in mounting a title challenge.
SCRAMBLE FOR EUROPEAN FOOTBALL
Unlike the other top leagues in European football, France has a limited number of places for qualification for UEFA competitions with just two guaranteed Champions League spots, one qualifying spot, one spot in the Europa League group stage and one in the Europa Conference League play-offs.
With PSG expected to surge to the title and take the first of the two group stage spots in the Champions League, with a 90.93 per cent likelihood, the scrap for the other automatic qualification spot could be fierce.
Marseille are seen as the favourites in that battle with a 29.97 per cent chance, with Monaco following suit with a 29.97 per cent chance.
Elsewhere, Lyon have an 18.7 per cent chance, with Rennes at 15.53 per cent, though they may have to settle for a third-place finish or a spot in the Europa League.
In the battle for fifth, and a play-off spot in the Conference League, it's also expected to be tight – with five clubs, as well as those already mentioned above, given at least a five per cent chance of reaching that spot.
Nice, Lens, Lille, Nantes and Strasbourg are all in with an outside shot of gunning for a spot in European competition, which could set up a thrilling battle.
REGULATION CHANGES INCREASE RELEGATION FIGHT
With Ligue 1 reducing to 18 teams from the 2023-24 season, the fight to avoid the drop to the second-tier will be fiercer than ever with the bottom four all being relegated – and there will be no play-offs either.
The situation looks bleak for Ajaccio (57.64 per cent chance of relegation), Clermont (57.57), Troyes (56.72) and Lorient (53.92), all of which are seen as more likely to suffer relegation than they are to avoid the drop.
Auxerre (46.58) and Toulouse (34.02) could also find themselves looking over their shoulders during the course of the season, while PSG, Marseille and Monaco are the three sides given no chance leaving the league through the bottom.
Of the promoted trio, it is Toulouse who are given the best chance of maintaining their top-flight status for another season – with their most likely position being 15th, with a 10.59 per cent chance of securing that spot.
Juve must play at their limits against in-form Lille, warns Motta
Thiago Motta stressed the importance of Juventus playing at their very best when they face Lille in the Champions League on Tuesday.
Juve face a tough task against a side who have already upset Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in this season's competition.
This will be the first ever meeting between these teams.
However, Juve have lost three of their last four Champions League matches against French opponents (W1), including both against Paris Saint-Germain in the 2022-23 campaign. and Motta warned against any complacency.
"All matches are important. We, as Juventus, always want to win. The most important thing is always trying to improve," Motta told reporters on Monday.
"Lille are very confident, and we want to face them in optimal condition. We aim to give more than our maximum.
"There are no favourites in a match. It's a beautiful game, in a beautiful stadium, and we hope the pitch will be in good condition tomorrow. We can only talk tomorrow about who played better."
Motta will have midfielder Douglas Luiz from injury, but is still without a glut of players.
"He's [Luiz] one more player who can help the team. We’ll be missing Arek [Arkadiusz Milik], Gleison [Bremer] and [Nicolas Gonzalez]."
Lille boss Bruno Genesio knows Juve will present a stern test for his team, despite their shock wins over the Madrid clubs this term.
"Every Champions League match is different, but there is one essential parameter to get a result - commitment," he said.
"Like all Italian teams, Juventus are very well organised, very difficult to play against. Having already achieved two big results in this competition, we are going to give it our all again and we have our fans who will give us strength."
Jonathan David will be one of the standout Lille players Juve have to keep a close eye on.
The Canada international has scored six goals in his last eight Champions League appearances for Lille.
Lille have won all five games he has scored in but have not won any of the six games he has featured in without scoring (D2 L4).
Barcelona 3-1 Espanyol: Olmo brace sends Blaugrana nine points clear
Barcelona moved nine points clear at the LaLiga summit following a 3-1 victory over Espanyol in the Catalan derby.
Dani Olmo scored twice while Raphinha was also on target as Hansi Flick's side stretched their advantage over second-place Real Madrid, whose scheduled showdown with Valencia this weekend was postponed.
Barca broke the deadlock after just 12 minutes. Olmo latched onto Lamine Yamal's brilliant throughball with the outside of his boot, before beating Espanyol goalkeeper Joan Garcia with a well-taken first-time finish.
The hosts doubled their lead 11 minutes later with Marc Casado finding Raphinha, who bravely lifted over the advancing Garcia.
It was 3-0 just after the half-hour mark, as Olmo received Alejandro Balde's pass before drilling home from the edge of the penalty area.
Espanyol, who saw two goals disallowed following VAR reviews, pulled one back when Javi Puado turned home Carlos Romero's cross in the 63rd minute.
However, it proved a consolation for the visitors, who suffered their sixth defeat in seven league games.
Data Debrief: Free-scoring Barca maintain derby dominance
Now unbeaten in 27 LaLiga derbies against Espanyol, Barcelona have now scored 40 goals this season; their second-highest tally after the first 12 games of a LaLiga season (42 in 1950-51).
Following Olmo's brace, which took his tally for the campaign to five, the Blaugrana are the only team with four different players to have scored at least five goals in Europe's top five leagues this term.
In setting up Raphinha's goal, Casado is the first Barca player from Spain to provide an assist in three successive games in all competitions since at least the 2014-15 season.
Zverev soars past Humbert to claim Paris Masters crown
Alexander Zverev soared to the Paris Masters title following a commanding 6-2 6-2 victory over home favourite Ugo Humbert in the final.
The German took just 75 minutes to seal his seventh career ATP Masters triumph, and second silverware of the season.
Humbert received a raucous reception as he aimed to become the first Frenchman to win this event since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008.
However, the crowd were silenced when Zverev broke in the third and fifth games on his way to taking the opening set.
The Italian Open champion also dominated the second set, dropping just five points on serve as he wrapped up a comfortable victory.
"I knew I had to play like this to win today," Zverev said. "Ugo is an incredible player, but here in Paris, he plays even better than he usually does, and I knew that.
"Once the crowd gets involved, it's going to be difficult. So, I had to take that away early, and I did, so I'm happy about that."
Zverev was also delighted to triumph in Paris, and demonstrate the strides he has made since suffering a horrifying ankle injury during his 2022 French Open semi-final against Rafael Nadal.
"It was not 100% guaranteed that I would be back at this level," he added. "So, to win this title here in Paris means the world to me, and I'm sure it means everything to those in my box, because they have done so much for me."
Data Debrief: Zverev surpasses Medvedev and matches Sinner
Runner-up to Daniil Medvedev in 2020, Zverev went one better at the Accor Arena four years later, and will be seeded second at the season-ending Nitto ATP Finals.
The second German to win this event after Boris Becker, he surpassed Medvedev (six) with his seventh ATP Masters crown the outright most of any player born since the format's inception in 1990.
Zverev also matched world number one Jannik Sinner for the joint-most match wins in ATP Masters events this season with 28.
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