"Anticipation has the habit to set you up for disappointment."

That refrain from The Arctic Monkeys song 'The View From The Afternoon' applies perfectly to the world of fantasy football, where high expectations are often not reflected by the end result.

While it is too early in the NFL season to be writing off teams and players who have not lived up to their hype as yet, there will already be fantasy owners getting impatient with certain players they drafted to help their team to glory.

Fans of the Las Vegas Raiders will certainly be irritated by their winless start while two offensive stars in the NFC West have yet to deliver much for differing reasons.

Keep that theme and that division in mind as Stats Perform dives into this week's edition of fantasy picks.

Quarterback: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans

Is it time to panic in Vegas after an 0-2 start? It certainly will be if the Raiders do not get it done against the also winless Titans.

Recent evidence quite clearly points to the Raiders' quarterback putting Las Vegas in a position to finally get up and running against a Tennessee defense that was shredded by the Buffalo Bills in Week 2.

The Titans are giving up seven yards per pass play, the seventh-most in the NFL, while the six passing touchdowns they have conceded are the third most.

Las Vegas' offense may not be on the same level as that of Buffalo, but the Raiders should have more than enough to consistently take advantage of a Titans defense that has been hit by injuries and reward fantasy players willing to give Carr a shot.

Running Back: Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

The Eagles' offense is built around quarterback Jalen Hurts, with his ability to thrive running the ball a critical component of their early success this year.

But Sanders' 20 touches in the win over the Minnesota Vikings illustrated that he too is a key part of the attack.

Through two weeks, he is averaging 88 yards per game on the ground and this week gets to face a Commanders defense allowing 7.48 yards per rush, the highest average in the NFL.

Sanders should, therefore, be a high-floor fantasy play at running back this week, though Hurts' involvement in the ground game somewhat limits his ceiling.

Wide Receiver: Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

The highly anticipated return to form for Robinson following his move to Los Angeles has yet to come to fruition, though he did find the endzone last week against the Atlanta Falcons.

In Week 3, he has a clear opportunity to build on that showing against a Cardinals team whose failures should not be masked by their incredible comeback win over the Raiders.

The Cardinals have allowed 7.65 yards per pass play in the first two games and seven passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL.

In other words, the Rams should have little problem moving the ball on Arizona, putting Robinson in position to have a big day as a mismatch in the red zone.

Tight End: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos

The Niners should get Kittle back from a groin injury this week, and the fact the Jimmy Garoppolo has had to step in for the injured Trey Lance is unlikely to have any negative impact on his production.

Kittle's chemistry with Garoppolo is well-established and, though theoretically he has a tough matchup against a stingy Broncos defense, there is room for optimism he will immediately hit the ground running in his season debut.

That optimism stems from the Broncos' performance against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1, when Denver allowed eight catches for 102 yards and a touchdown to tight ends, an average of 12.75 yards per reception.

If Kittle is allowed to do similar damage, then arguably the best yards after catch threat at his position could make it a long night for Denver and a great one for fantasy players with him on their roster.

Defense/Special Teams: Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

OK. Listing the 0-2 Panthers here might elicit a double take, but there's logic behind this pick, believe it or not.

The Panthers may be heading to a complete teardown come the end of the year, but the defense is not the reason behind their struggles.

They have given up just 4.31 yards per play, the fourth-best average in the NFL, and just three offensive touchdowns.

Yes, the Saints are the better team, but they are also starting a quarterback in Jameis Winston who has four fractures in his back.

A low-scoring struggle is the most likely outcome in this NFC South matchup and, for that reason, the Panthers are a defense worthy of streaming for fantasy players in a bind at that spot.

Police in Las Vegas are investigating allegations that a fan struck Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray in the aftermath of Arizona’s 29-23 overtime victory over the Raiders on Sunday.

Video showed that Murray was giving high-fives to fans in the front row of Allegiant Stadium when a man appeared to reach down and strike Murray in the face with an open hand.

Murray was not injured but appeared shocked by the act on video.

A Las Vegas police spokesperson confirmed that a battery complaint was filed Sunday. Murray’s name was not explicitly mentioned by the spokesperson, who said the allegation was that "a spectator at the stadium struck a professional football player."

Police have not yet identified a suspect.

Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury said he has not seen the video but was made aware of the incident on Monday.

"I was just told about it," Kingsbury said. "But I think that guy's a lowlife, whoever did it, and I hope they arrest him, he gets fired and can never go to another game."

The Cardinals trailed 23-7 at halftime but stormed back to force overtime, thanks in large part to Murray tallying a passing and a rushing touchdown, along with two two-point conversions to force overtime.

Arizona won the game when Byron Murphy Jr. returned a Hunter Renfrow fumble 59 yards for a touchdown in the extra session.

Kyler Murray decided to take responsibility for the Arizona Cardinals after a woeful first half left them 20-0 down at the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.

And Murray and the Cardinals were rewarded for his bravery as they rallied to a sensational 29-23 win in overtime.

Cornerback Byron Murphy's fumble return decided the game, but quarterback Murray had brought Arizona to that point.

Under increased scrutiny this season after signing a five-year, $230.5million contract extension – which initially contained a controversial 'homework' clause – Murray threw for 193 yards and two touchdowns against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 but saw the Cardinals beaten 44-21.

Through two quarters in Week 2, Murray had completed only six passes for 53 yards, thrown an interception and not carried the ball once.

It looked like being another miserable day for the former first overall pick and his team-mates, yet he turned the game on its head.

"I had to take over, had to do whatever it took to win," Murray explained. "That was my mindset."

The fourth-year star threw for 224 yards and a TD, rushing for a further score to put Murphy in a position to win the game.

"That feeling, going into the half where nothing is going right, we've felt that plenty of times since I've been here," Murray said afterwards. "It's an ugly feeling.

"But the grit, the resiliency of this group... the issue with this group is never about playing hard. It's about executing."

The pick of Murray's plays was a two-point conversion when the Cardinals trailed the Raiders 23-13, as the QB scrambled for 20 seconds and 85 yards before reaching the end zone.

"There's so many do-or-die plays, I lost count, where we had to have this stop, had to have this two-point conversion, had to score, had to have the fourth down," coach Kliff Kingsbury said.

"And guys just kept fighting. I mean nobody blinked. At half-time, it was just, 'hey, we got to settle in and do what we do'.

"We played about as bad as you could the first half and didn't play great the second half, but the effort was incredible."

Of Murray, he added: "He's a special talent. You can see when he's able to do his thing, that's what he does, and he had some tremendous plays.

"The numbers may not be great, [but] we don't care about numbers."

What a first week of the NFL season that was.

So much drama, so many late twists, and it's almost time to do it all over again as Week 2 looms on the horizon.

Sunday sees Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looking to follow up their opening win against the Dallas Cowboys when they head to New Orleans, the Los Angeles Rams will aim to get on the board when they host the Atlanta Falcons, while Russell Wilson's first home game for the Denver Broncos sees them welcome the Houston Texans.

With all that and more, Stats Perform has used Opta data to preview the weekend's action in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) @ New Orleans Saints (1-0)

The Saints have won their last seven regular-season games against the Buccaneers, matching the longest previous winning streak by either team in this rivalry, a run of seven consecutive wins by New Orleans from 2011 to 2014. Tampa Bay did beat the Saints in a Divisional Playoff game following the 2020 season.

Tampa Bay had one interception (by Antoine Winfield Junior) in their season-opening win at Dallas. The Bucs were 11-0 last season in games in which they intercepted at least one pass. The Green Bay Packers (also 11-0) were the only other NFL team to go unbeaten last season in games in which they recorded one or more interceptions.

New Orleans won their season opener in Atlanta, 27-26, after trailing 26-10 in the fourth quarter. It was the first time in franchise history that the Saints won a game in which they trailed by 16 or more points in the fourth quarter, and only the third time they won a game in which they were behind by 16 or more points in the second half.

Tom Brady and the Bucs lost their last game against the Saints, 9-0 (Week 15 last season). That is one of only three times that Brady's team has been shut out in his 317 regular-season and 47 postseason starts in the NFL. The other shutouts were in 2003 (Patriots at Buffalo, 31-0 in Week 1) and 2014 (Patriots at Miami, 21-0 in Week 14).

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (0-1)

Including their original stint in California and time in St. Louis, the Rams are 28-8-2 (.778) at home against their former NFC West rival, Atlanta Falcons. That is the best home record of any franchise against a single opponent (minimum of 30 games) in NFL history.

Cordarrelle Patterson rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown in Atlanta's season opener. At 31 years old, Patterson is the second-oldest player in team history to have 100+ rushing yards and a touchdown run in a game, behind only Warrick Dunn, who had two such games.

The Rams started the season with a 31-10 loss to the Bills, the largest home loss in a season opener ever by a defending Super Bowl champion. The team has not started a season at 0-2 since 2011 when they were in St. Louis and have not lost their first two games as the Los Angeles Rams since 1987.

Cooper Kupp tied a career high with 13 catches in the opener against Buffalo. Including playoffs, Kupp has at least five receptions in each of the Rams' last 22 games. Only Antonio Brown has a longer such streak of team games with five or more catches in the Super Bowl era (37).

Houston Texans (0-0-1) @ Denver Broncos (0-1)

The Texans opened their season with a 20-20 tie against the Indianapolis Colts, despite being outgained by 218 yards in the game. Prior to Houston on Sunday, the last team to tie a game while having 200+ yards less than their opponent was the Packers against the Broncos in 1987.

In his first game with the Texans, O.J. Howard scored touchdowns on each of his two receptions. Howard joins Jaelen Strong as the only players to ever have two TD catches in their team debut for Houston.

Denver committed 12 penalties in their 17-16 loss to the Seahawks on Monday. It was the most penalties the Broncos have ever committed in a season opener, surpassing the 11 penalties they had to kick off the 1970 season against the Bills.

Russell Wilson threw for 340 yards against the Seahawks in his Denver debut. It was the most passing yards by a Broncos QB on their debut with the team and Wilson's 12th career game with 340+ passing yards (his teams are 5-7 in those games).

Elsewhere...

The New England Patriots travel to the Pittsburgh Steelers after suffering a 20-7 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, and have not started a season with consecutive double-digit losses since losing three straight games by such a margin to begin the 1969 campaign.

Baltimore's Lamar Jackson threw for three touchdowns against the New York Jets after throwing three or more TDs just twice all of last season. Before they host the Dolphins, it is notable that, in his career, the Ravens are 13-1 when Jackson has three or more pass TDs, the second-best team record among active players behind Josh Allen at 14-1 (minimum 10 such games).

Starting with their 2013 NFC Championship game success over the 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks are 15-2 in their last 17 games against San Francisco, which includes season sweeps in 2020 and 2021. The 15 wins since January 2014 are tied with the Patriots (vs. Jets) for the most by an NFL team against a single opponent in that span (including playoffs).

The Arizona Cardinals will need to watch Davante Adams, who had 10 catches for 141 yards on 17 targets in his Las Vegas Raiders debut. That is the most targets for any player in their first career game with the Raiders in the past 30 seasons. The only other with player with 15+ targets in their Raiders debut over that span is Randy Moss in 2005 (15).

The Las Vegas Raiders and tight end Darren Waller have agreed to a three-year, $51million contract extension, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Saturday.  

Waller, who turns 30 next week, was already under contract for the next two seasons, so his new deal keeps him tied to the Raiders through 2026.  

The 2020 Pro Bowl selection had no guaranteed money left on his previous deal, with this extension giving Waller some insurance on the eve of the Raiders’ 2022 campaign.  

Drafted in the sixth round by the Baltimore Ravens in 2015, Waller was a practice squad player to begin his career and had just 18 career catches through the 2018 season.  

Since 2019, Waller has made 252 catches for 3,006 yards – both second in the NFL by tight ends over that span – and caught 14 touchdowns.  

Waller broke the Raiders single-season franchise record by making 107 receptions in 2020, eclipsing Tim Brown's mark of 104 catches that stood for 23 years.  

The Raiders’ passing offense is poised to be productive and stable for years to come, with Waller, quarterback Derek Carr and receivers Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow all under contract through at least the 2025 season.  

The idea of "any given Sunday" is what makes the NFL so compelling.

Any one team can beat another, and that means at this stage of the season, with the first snap still to be taken, every team can have Super Bowl aspirations.

Sort of.

The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, may have been slightly surprising contenders in 2021, but there remain some teams whose title hopes are so remote as to be non-existent.

For some, this is because they have missed their shot at glory in recent years; for others, the plan is to challenge in seasons to come.

So, this leads us to draw up a preseason tier system, ranking all 32 teams by their Super Bowl windows with the help of Stats Perform AI predictions...

Nowhere near

This is unlikely to be a season to remember for the teams grouped in this category, for a variety of reasons.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South in 2018 and 2019, but the Deshaun Watson saga and two down years have them looking at a rebuild, with the data forecasting just 4.8 wins this year. That at least ranks them ahead of the Atlanta Falcons (3.6 projected wins) and the New York Giants (4.2), while the Texans did gain draft assets in the Watson trade.

The Chicago Bears are the fourth and final team projected to earn fewer than six wins (4.9), with second-year quarterback Justin Fields receiving little help on offense and playing behind an offensive line ranked 31st in pass protection.

Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders rank 31st in terms of skill players – better only than the Falcons – with faith in Carson Wentz long since having diminished. In Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, the Carolina Panthers have two high-draft-pick QBs unlikely to trouble the postseason. The New York Jets are in a similar boat, even if Zach Wilson is still young.

The Detroit Lions might argue they do not deserve to keep such company after a 3-3 finish to last season, but nobody could seriously argue they are title contenders.

Entering contention

If that first group was a mixed bag, so too is the second.

Anyone who has paid any attention to the New England Patriots' preseason would suggest they are very fortunate to be given any hope of success in the near future, but they finished with 10 wins in 2021 – even if that number is projected to shrink to 7.7. Despite a trade for Tyreek Hill, that still ranks the Patriots comfortably ahead of the Miami Dolphins (7.0), although the losing team in their Week 1 meeting will face a long slog of a season.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Eagles are forecast to have 11.9 wins – the second-most in the NFL – after a very strong offseason. But Jalen Hurts, for now, is unproven in the postseason, so Philly fans may have to stay patient.

The San Francisco 49ers are even younger at QB after promoting Trey Lance to a starting role, which explains why the prediction model looks so unfavourably on a team many consider contenders right now. Just 7.1 projected wins speaks to the potentially low floor Lance brings.

NFC West rivals the Arizona Cardinals have to be considered among this group of future hopefuls, with Kyler Murray hugely talented and now committed long term but frustratingly inconsistent, while the Jacksonville Jaguars will hope Trevor Lawrence can follow in the footsteps of the Bengals' Joe Burrow – the number one pick the year before him.

The Los Angeles Chargers, with 9.8 projected wins, have Justin Herbert to lead their charge, while the Cleveland Browns might have been contenders already if not for Watson's suspension, which is enough to limit them to a still strong 9.3-win forecast.

In their prime

The Chargers may have Herbert, but they also have three division rivals who intend to win and intend to win now. Indeed, all four AFC West teams rank in the top half of the league in terms of projected wins, with the Chargers second – behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11.5) and just ahead of the Denver Broncos (9.7) and the Las Vegas Raiders (9.2).

The Chiefs lead the AFC in this regard, although their playoff win over the Buffalo Bills last season came down to a coin flip, and the two are set to be similarly tough to separate this year. Buffalo are down for 11.1 wins.

The two teams coming off a Super Bowl run are of course prominent among the contenders, even if the model has far greater optimism for a Los Angeles Rams repeat than for another Bengals charge. The Rams are backed for a league-leading 12.4 wins and given a 15.3 per cent shot at defending their title, while the Bengals are actually projected to dip below .500 with 8.2 wins.

The Bengals' route to the Super Bowl will be complicated not just by the AFC West and the Bills but also by any return to form for the fit-again Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens, who are counted among nine teams on course for 10 or more wins (10.4).

Also in that group are NFC pair the Dallas Cowboys (11.0) and the Minnesota Vikings (10.9), who may not even be the best teams in their divisions but might be nearing a point when they must seriously challenge or start again, which brings us to...

Last chance saloon

As long as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are the QBs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers, those teams are in with a chance. The question is how long that will remain the case.

Brady is 45, briefly retired this offseason and then missed a chunk of the preseason. Rodgers is 38, has repeatedly been linked with a move away from Green Bay and lost top target Davante Adams ahead of the new season. Still, the Buccaneers rank eighth for projected wins (10.7), with the Packers up in third (11.5).

They are not the only ageing teams in the NFL, however.

The Indianapolis Colts hope they have upgraded in moving from Wentz to Matt Ryan, yet the former MVP is now 37 and last played in the postseason in 2017 – when Wentz's Eagles took the title.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is a little younger at 34, but of greater concern would be Derrick Henry's durability after the injury that limited to eight games last regular season. The Titans need to make the most of any seasons they have left of the superstar running back going at full tilt.

Missed their chance

Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees won Super Bowls with the Seattle Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints respectively, but with all three having now moved on, it is difficult to see those teams plotting a path to the title.

For the Seahawks and the Steelers, this will be their first year without their stalwart QBs, even if things had already gone stale in 2021. Wilson dipped below the .500 mark for a season for the first time in his career, while Pittsburgh were attempting to stay competitive in spite of Roethlisberger rather than because of him.

Still, with both gone – Wilson to Denver and Roethlisberger to retirement – there is a void under center that has not been suitably filled. Seattle also rank 32nd in pass protection, likely leaving Geno Smith hopelessly exposed.

The Saints have had another 12 months to come to terms with Brees' exit, albeit they spent it juggling Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill at QB. Winston's season-ending injury doomed the Saints' hopes of contention last year, and New Orleans' outlook for 9.5 wins with the entertaining but erratic former number one pick is at least far more positive than that of the Seahawks (6.2) or the Steelers (7.0).

Regardless, each of these three teams have provided an example in how not to do succession planning. They all could have won additional honours with their departed veterans and now face long waits for further title tilts.

It seemed on a frenzied January night in Kansas City as though the AFC title would be decided by the toss of a coin.

The Kansas City Chiefs were the beneficiaries, coming up the field one last time to beat the Buffalo Bills, but Patrick Mahomes and Co. were not to make the Super Bowl.

That the Chiefs were stunned by the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game said a great deal for the strength in depth of the conference.

And that has been ratcheted up to another level over the course of the offseason, with Russell Wilson and Davante Adams among the notable names traded into the AFC.

The NFC may still have the defending Super Bowl champions, but there are no shortage of contenders here – including as many as four in one wild division out west.

The favourites

The Chiefs and the Bills would both have been hugely disheartened by the manner in which their seasons ended. Kansas City had the fortune that deserted Buffalo but were unable to make the most of their reprieve against the Bengals.

But that will merely make Mahomes and Josh Allen two of the more motivated superstars heading into the new season.

Mahomes is now without Tyreek Hill, yet the Chiefs' offensive line went from strength to strength as last season wore on, ranking third in pass protection win percentage by the year's end.

Meanwhile, Allen showed in that playoff blockbuster he can be every bit a match for Mahomes at his best. He threw nine touchdown passes across his two playoff games; no player had previously thrown more than seven while playing two games or fewer in a single postseason.

Allen will hope not to get the chance to better that record, this year targeting a run that goes far beyond the Divisional Round.

In the mix

The Bengals of course have to be considered after pushing the Los Angeles Rams all the way, while the Tennessee Titans actually matched the Chiefs for the best regular season record in the AFC despite Derrick Henry being limited to eight games, though the trade of receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles may restrict their ceiling on offense and ability to compete this year.

Deshaun Watson's suspension will give the Cleveland Browns work to do just to make the playoffs, but they may well be a serious threat if they get there.

A conference packed with quarterback talent also includes former MVP Lamar Jackson, who is fit again and looking to set the Baltimore Ravens back on course after a difficult 2021 in which they finished bottom of the AFC North.

But if the Chiefs are the team to beat, perhaps one of their division rivals can cause an upset. Each of the Los Angeles Chargers, the Denver Broncos and the Las Vegas Raiders have reasons to be optimistic.

Four contenders in the wild, wild AFC West

The Chiefs have won the AFC West six years in a row, but there is no guarantee that will become seven. The scale of the challenge before Kansas City represents a big boost to their AFC rivals – and to the neutrals, licking their lips at a must-watch season-long tussle.

Justin Herbert has long looked like making the Chargers contenders, with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history helping his offense finish fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747) last season. Crucially, the Chargers have added defensive help in the form of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson now, too.

Yet their offseason work perhaps pales next to that of the Broncos and the Raiders.

Wilson left the Seattle Seahawks for Denver, who promptly handed him a huge contract, clearly feeling he and Nathaniel Hackett can be the QB-coach combo they have been missing to return them to the postseason.

Support for that belief comes from Wilson's performance in quarterback Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE), which measures a signal-caller's performance in expected passing situations against the league average. Despite playing only 14 games on a Seahawks team that finished in the NFC West cellar, Wilson was still 13th in EVE, just behind Tom Brady.

Meanwhile, Adams has reunited with former Fresno State team-mate Derek Carr on the Raiders, with Stats Perform's positional rankings subsequently considering Las Vegas to have the most talented skill players in the NFL.

The Chiefs will undoubtedly now be made to work for the division after years of dominance. 

Lamar out to right last year's wrongs

With half of the conference potentially in contention for a Super Bowl run, there is perhaps no true sleeper pick, but the Ravens will expect to go from worst to first in their division.

Much will depend on a return to form for dual-threat superstar Jackson.

Baltimore were firmly on course for the playoffs at the time of the ankle injury that kept Jackson out of the run-in in 2021, collapsing thereafter. However, it had already been by far the QB's worst season as a regular starter.

After 3,127 passing yards and 36 passing TDs and 1,206 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs in his MVP season of 2019, Jackson had regressed slightly in 2020 and struggled further last year both through the air and on the ground.

In 12 games, Jackson threw just 16 TDs to 13 interceptions, while his 767 rushing yards saw him finish second among QBs to Jalen Hurts – a category he had dominated in the previous two campaigns.

Everything the Ravens do when they are good goes through Jackson, so his performance level will make or break their season.

Can Tua turn his fortunes around?

With the wealth of talent at the top of the AFC, there must also be some dregs at the bottom. The Miami Dolphins might fear they belong instead to that category.

The Dolphins made their own big move this offseason, taking elite receiver Hill out of the AFC West to give Tua Tagovailoa little excuse in his third season.

Hill got open on 82.7 per cent of his targets last season, with those skills of separation sure to come in useful when attempting to link up with a passer in Tagovailoa who threw to an open target just 73.8 per cent of the time.

The Dolphins are not expecting Tagovailoa to be Mahomes, but they need him to be much better than he has been thus far for this project to work.

The AFC West has been dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs in recent seasons, with six division titles in succession.

In fact, if the Chiefs can extend that streak to seven, they will tie each of the Denver Broncos, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Chargers on 15 division titles.

Unfortunately for those in Kansas City, their rivals appear especially determined to ensure this year is different.

No division has prompted as much intrigue during the offseason as the AFC West, which has appeared at the centre of numerous big trades as its pretenders attempt to become contenders.

So hard to split is the division that Stats Perform has not even attempted to try – instead explaining what needs to happen for each of these teams in turn to be successful...

Kansas City Chiefs

After topping the AFC West in six straight seasons, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Chiefs can be toppled in 2022: Patrick Mahomes is coming off perhaps the worst season of his career, Tyreek Hill is gone, and the competition in the division is intense.

Yet those are also three reasons why Mahomes will be determined to lead the Chiefs to another strong year.

One of the game's leading lights will hope the 2021 season, with its 3-4 start and hugely disappointing finish in the AFC Championship Game, does not live long in the memory, but his attempts to move on swiftly could easily be hampered by the departure of WR1 Hill to the Miami Dolphins.

However, tight end Travis Kelce – the career leader in Mahomes targets (540), completions (383) and passing yards (4,960) – remains in Kansas City, and the quarterback has the ability to make a partnership work with any receiver.

Mahomes just needs time, and that is what he can expect to get behind one of the best offensive lines in the game.

The Chiefs rebuilt their O-line last year, and they ranked third in the NFL in pass protection win percentage (80.16) in 2021. Crucially, that unit improved as the season went on; the six games in which Mahomes faced the most pressures were all before the Week 12 bye.

Mahomes' pass completion rate of 77.4 per cent when not pressured ranked second among QBs with 100 or more attempts last season; this dropped to 56.7 per cent when pressured – only marginally above the league average in such scenarios (56.6).

Widely considered the most talented passer of his generation, the Chiefs have focused on protecting Mahomes rather than worrying about who he is throwing to, and that should be a safe bet despite his postseason wobble.

Las Vegas Raiders

As one elite receiver leaves the AFC West in Hill, another arrives. Davante Adams has quit the Green Bay Packers to bring his star power to Vegas.

Since his rookie season, Adams ranks fifth in the NFL for catches (669), sixth for receiving yards (8,121) and second for receiving touchdowns (73), although he has spent his entire career playing with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Now, Adams will be paired with zero-time MVP Derek Carr, who threw for 23 TDs and 14 interceptions last year, ranking 24th in touchdown percentage (3.7). Rodgers, by comparison, threw for 37 scores and four picks, with his 7.0 TD percentage the best in the league.

Yet Carr will surely benefit from having Adams to throw to. He saw 25 passes dropped in 2021 – tied for the third-most in the NFL – and a solid completion percentage of 68.4 could have been better, as his expected completion percentage of 74.5 trailed only Mahomes (75.9).

Carr is clearly an accurate passer; he just needs a little help turning this talent into tangible rewards.

Adams is the ideal man to do that, with the duo teaming up previously for two years at Fresno State, in which time the receiver's 38 TDs led the FBS by some distance.

Last year, Adams – who dropped a career-low one pass, just 0.6 per cent of his targets – added 633 yards after the catch, fourth-most in the league, and led the way in recording a first down with 49.7 per cent of his targets.

He can have a transformative impact on a team who were already the Chiefs' nearest challengers in this division and will now be overseen by former New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as coach.

Los Angeles Chargers

This division is so exciting not only because it contains four potentially great teams but because it contains four potentially great offenses.

For the Chargers, there are few doubts on that side of the ball. They have largely brought back the same offense that made Justin Herbert a star in 2021 with just the 14th 5,000-yard passing season in league history. Of course, the 17-game season helped in that regard, but only Tom Brady (5,316) outperformed Herbert (5,014) on the year.

As a result, the Chargers were fourth in the league in yards per game (390.2) and fifth in total points scored (747).

So, why did they miss out on the postseason?

Well, the Chargers had a bottom-10 defense in terms of yards per game (360.1), and only two teams allowed more points across the season (459). That Herbert-powered offense ranked 23rd in time spent on the field, with the defense giving them too much to do in too little time.

There are reasons to believe that will change this year, though, with the acquisitions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson particularly notable for a team that ranked in the bottom half of the league for takeaways (21).

Only three players have had eight or more interceptions in a single season over the past two years; Jackson, one of those three, has done it twice.

No player has ever previously had eight or more picks in three straight seasons, but Jackson has shown no signs of slowing and could be exactly the type of superstar the Chargers need on defense to complement Herbert's efforts on offense and seize control of this division.

Denver Broncos

These might not be the four most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, but they may well be the four most motivated.

Russell Wilson undoubtedly has a point to prove after ending a 10-year stint with the Seattle Seahawks that went downhill fast in its final 18 months. In early MVP contention after a 5-0 start to the 2020 season, Wilson went 13-12 over the rest of his Seahawks career.

He last year missed the postseason for only the second time and, according to Seattle, pushed for a trade. "I didn't initiate it," was Wilson's reply. "It was definitely mutual."

Regardless, Wilson will find a very receptive audience in Denver, where Broncos fans were desperate to see an end to the QB merry-go-round that had them in a spin for six straight years after Peyton Manning's farewell Super Bowl 50 win. They have had 10 different starters under center since 2016, second only to Washington (11).

In that time outside the title picture, though, the Broncos have rebuilt the rest of the roster, waiting for the sort of QB-coach combo they now have in Wilson and former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett.

Denver allowed the eighth-fewest yards per game last season (326.1) and the third-fewest points (322); on offense, a better QB than Teddy Bridgewater would have made more use of playing behind an O-line that ranked eighth in pass protection win percentage (78.64).

With personnel changes at the two most important positions, the Broncos can expect to be much, much better than 19th for yards per game (330.5) and joint-23rd for total points (335).

That improvement should take the Broncos from nowhere to somewhere, even in this AFC West.

The NFL is all about evolution. The constant fight to gain a decisive advantage, in a league where those who can adapt fastest are kings, consistently leads to sweeping changes every offseason.

While it is the raft of head coaching changes that dominate the headlines when the regular season gives way to 'Black Monday', it is the more granular alterations to a team's approach that can often have the greatest influence on a franchise's fortunes in a given season.

Switches in scheme or a diversion away from a team's long-standing tendencies are regularly brought on by the arrival of a new coaching staff or a change in coordinator, but personnel moves also frequently dictate the approach coaches settle on as they plot a path towards success.

Schematic decisions that may not cause much of a league-wide stir can end up having a huge influence on the outcome of a season, and there are no shortage of such changes that figure to have a significant bearing on the race for the playoffs in 2022.

Here, with the help of its advanced data, Stats Perform looks at five switches in scheme or tendencies that could play a defining role in the coming campaign.

Can McDaniel transform Tua?

The Miami Dolphins' second-half surge in 2021 was tied to their reliance on the run-pass option as they tailored their offense to Tua Tagovailoa's strengths.

Not only were the Dolphins prolific in going to the RPO, they were very effective when they called them.

Miami called a RPO on 12.27 per cent of their pass attempts, the league average was 3.5 per cent. They averaged 7.25 yards per play on RPOs, comfortably above the league average of 5.85.

Given their success on those plays and Tagovailoa's comfort in executing them, RPOs will still be a part of the Miami attack in 2022.

But the usage numbers are unlikely to be as high under new head coach Mike McDaniel, who brings his take on the Kyle Shanahan offense to Miami afer serving as the San Francisco 49ers' offensive coordinator last year.

McDaniel will likely reduce the number of straight dropback pass plays for Tagovailoa. The Dolphins ran them on 34 per cent of passes last year, below the league average of 36.1 per cent but well above the 2021 49ers, who used such plays only 22.9 per cent of the time while utilising the quick game on 40.97 per cent of passes compared to 25.97 per cent for the Dolphins.

The arrival of McDaniel will likely tip the balance towards the quick game for Miami in 2022 as he looks to give Tagovailoa easy buttons in the same way Shanahan did for Jimmy Garoppolo, getting the ball into the hands of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill to do damage after the catch.

McDaniel, who was San Francisco's run-game coordinator prior to his promotion last year, will undoubtedly lean on Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds and a ground attack certain to be heavily based around inside and outside zone runs to take the burden off Tagovailoa and set up play-action.

Miami used play-action on 14.57 per cent of their passes in 2021, above the average of 12.7 per cent but still trailing the 49ers (15.89 per cent). With Tagovailoa's ability to hit Hill and Waddle downfield with consistent accuracy in question, look for McDaniel to put significant stress on defenses by attracting linebackers up to the line of scrimmage with play-action and then running Hill and Waddle cross-field on horizontal routes at the intermediate levels that are well within his quarterback's range.

Under Shanahan, McDaniel has had an education into scheming his weapons into space, and he should thrive at doing so when running an offense himself for the first time. Tagovailoa's challenge will be to prove he can deliver and make the most of the advantageous situations in which his coach will put him. Fail, and the Dolphins may soon be searching for a new franchise quarterback.

More deep balls and diversity for Niners

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Shanahan has insisted nothing in his playbook has changed as he enters the season with a new starting quarterback, and the 49ers head coach will unexpectedly have the same top two signal-callers as he did last season.

It is the order that has flipped, with Jimmy Garoppolo agreeing a reworked contract for 2022 to be Trey Lance's backup. Regardless of what Shanahan says, the 49ers' approach is likely to be different with Lance under center.

Lance averaged 10.10 air yards per attempt across his 10 full quarters of action last season (he started two games and played the second half when Garoppolo was injured in Week 4), the second-most among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts.

On the other end of the scale, Garoppolo's 7.38 air yards per attempt were well below the league average of 7.99. Garoppolo attempted just 26 passes of 21 or more air yards the entire season, while 11 of Lance's 70 passes were of that distance.

The scheme isn't changing, but the tendencies certainly will. Lance will be more aggressive and attack downfield more often, likely leading to explosive splash plays that are not necessarily reliant on receivers creating yardage after the catch.

Though the plays may have already been in Shanahan's playbook, there is certain to be more of an emphasis on the threat of the quarterback run with Lance at the helm.

Just 2.62 per cent of the 49ers' run plays came on the zone-read last year, below the league average of 4.2. That number should increase, as should San Francisco's usage of the RPO game, which the Niners used on only 1.09 per cent of pass plays last year but averaged 8.43 yards per play when they did.

With Lance and the running back both threats to run on such plays, defenses will have to account for three possibilites when defending RPOs against the 49ers, exemplifying how much more diverse their offense can become with the 2021 third overall pick under center.

San Francisco's attack will be even more varied and more aggressive in 2022, but it is also likely to be more volatile due to Lance's inferior precision to Garoppolo on the intermediate passes that set up the yards after catch opportunities on which the 49ers have done such damage in recent years. How that volatility impacts the win-loss column will determine whether Garoppolo gets on the field at any point in the final year of his contract.

Vikings look to the 3-4

The Vikings swapped out basically everything this offseason. New general manager, new head coach – who will also be the offensive play-caller – and new defensive coordinator.

Though head coach Kevin O'Connell's offense will be different to the one run by former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the systems are similar enough that Kirk Cousins and Co. are unlikely to endure too much pain in acclimating to the new scheme.

The biggest adjustments will come on the defensive side of the ball, which will be run by Ed Donatell, who spent the last three seasons coordinating Vic Fangio's defense for the Denver Broncos.

The Fangio defense has become the en vogue scheme in the NFL as acolytes such as Brandon Staley have put their spin on it and the two-high safety shells that have been a hallmark of the system have helped limit explosive plays and level the playing field a little in an offense-dominated league.

Denver played Cover 1 robber – which is where a safety from a two-high look drops down into the box to disrupt in-breaking routes in the congested area – as the defense's primary coverage in 2021. The Broncos ran Cover 1 robber 41.87 per cent of the time in a season where the league average was 14.17 per cent.

The Vikings were more varied but still used Cover 1 robber more than any other coverage, relying on it for 21.81 per cent of defensive snaps.

Whether Donatell uses that coverage to the same extent in Minnesota remains to be seen, but the transition for the Vikings' secondary may be a smooth one given how often they ultilised the same shell under Mike Zimmer. 

The most significant change to the defense comes up front, with the Vikings switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4.

Though defensive fronts are much more hybrid in the modern NFL, the tenets of the 3-4 front are the same. The three-man line is tasked with holding ground and filling up gaps at the point of attack, offering more space to the four linebackers to take better pursuit angles against the run and opening a wide menu of blitz packages against the pass. 

Minnesota's two starting outside linebackers are de-facto edge rushers and both players who should each theoretically thrive in that role. Za'Darius Smith has significant experience with the 3-4 from his time with the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers while the athletic profile of Danielle Hunter – whose 60.5 sacks since 2015 are tied for the seventh-most in the NFL – makes him an ideal candidate to excel as a stand-up pass rusher.

Possessing two impressive space-eating interior defenders in Harrison Phillips and Damon Harrison and an inside linebacker in Eric Kendricks who had five sacks last year, the Vikings have the personnel to continue to succeed rushing the passer despite the change in front. They were 10th in pass rush win rate in 2021, had the sixth-most pressures (291) and the second-most sacks (51).

Despite their joy in getting after the quarterback, the Vikings were 26th in yards per play allowed (5.66), with their struggles tied to a run defense that allowed 51 runs of at least 10 yards. Only 12 teams allowed more. If the switch to the 3-4 helps the Vikings grow more stout against the ground game, then a team with the talent on both sides of the ball to contend for the playoffs will be in a much better position to make noise as a potential Wild Card team.

The Raiders' overdue defensive switch

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new offensive system after hiring Josh McDaniels as their head coach and will also have the benefit of expanded firepower following the blockbuster trade for All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams. 

Las Vegas will have the personnel and the offensive scheme to go blow for blow with their high-powered rivals in the AFC West.

The question is whether their defense can do enough to contain their divisional foes, and its success in doing so likely rests on how the Raiders adapt to new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham.

In 2021, the Raiders only gave up 5.2 yards per play, the ninth-fewest in the NFL; however, former coordinator Gus Bradley's steadfast commitment to single-high Cover 3 defenses saw Las Vegas shredded for 888 net yards in a pair of defeats to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Las Vegas played Cover 3 zone on an incredible 65.79 per cent of snaps last season. The league average was 23.75 per cent.

In his final year as the New York Giants' defensive coordinator, Graham relied heavily on Cover 3, which the Giants used 45.58 per cent of the time. 

But Graham used a wider range of coverages more regularly than his predecessor. The Giants played Cover 1 robber, Cover 2 and Tampa 2 at a rate above the league average.

The Raiders' secondary talent is questionable, but Graham is a coordinator who predominantly plays the coverage with which they are most familiar but is more flexible than Bradley. As such, the transition to Graham should be a relatively smooth one for the Raiders' defensive backfield; however, it will be their ability to excel in a defense that promises to be much more multiple than it was a year ago that determines whether this unit improves.

Las Vegas' defense did not embrace the two-high revolution in 2021. With Graham running a unit that will be tasked with stopping three explosive downfield passers in Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson in the AFC West, such shells will almost certainly become a bigger part of the Raiders' gameplan. How their defenders adapt to playing those coverages more frequently will have a huge bearing on the Raiders' success in competing for top spot in a loaded division.

Will 'Big Red' turn to the run?

As the Raiders perhaps shift towards a more two-high heavy world, the Chiefs' hopes of regaining the Lombardi Trophy will in part be tied to their proficiency in attacking such defenses.

The Chiefs' often exaggerated struggles against two-high coverage shells dominated much of the discussion in the first half of last season as defenses looked for a way to take away the shot play to Tyreek Hill.

By the end of the year, the Chiefs appeared to have solved the riddle and averaged 33.2 points per game over the final six weeks of the regular season.

Yet with Hill gone, the Kansas City offense has lost the reason many opponents not named the Raiders defended them with such coverages.

Defenses are unlikely to suddenly move away from the two-high looks when playing Kansas City now Hill is a Miami Dolphin, and teams will continue to dare Mahomes to take what he is given underneath and attempt to limit his opportunities to go downfield to the deep threats the Chiefs do have, namely Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman.

Mahomes will need to be patient and connect with tight end Travis Kelce and other receivers who should excel attacking the underneath areas such as Juju Smith-Schuster and rookie second-round pick Skyy Moore.

But the Chiefs may also look to run the ball more to get defenses out of those coverages and draw more defenders into the box, opening the deep areas of the field for Mahomes to attack.

Kansas City ran the ball on only 31.8 per cent of offensive snaps last season, and there is plenty of evidence to suggest they would succeed if they did so more often.

The Chiefs ranked first in run block win rate in 2021 – their exploits in that regard allowing Clyde Edwards-Helaire to average 3.08 yards before contact per attempt, the eighth-most among running backs with at least 100 attempts – and Kansas City were seventh in yards per play on the ground (4.54). Rookie undrafted free agent Isaiah Pacheco has caught the eye in training camp and could blossom into a dynamic threat out of the backfield.

It is tough to make the case for taking the ball out of Mahomes' hands. However, as defenses continue to present him with more varied and complex looks, there is a need for a greater balance in the Chiefs' offense.

Between using a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire and building an O-line that can produce dominant run-blocking, the Chiefs have spent significant resources on players with the potential to help them achieve that balance by committing to what has been an efficient run game. A modest shift in their offensive tendencies could be the key to the Chiefs getting back to the top of the pile despite the loss of one the league's most fearsome playmakers.

No one player is bigger than the team. It's a phrase that is most commonly applied to football of the other variety, but it can be a tricky one to throw around in the context of the NFL.

In a game and a league where the quarterback position has an outsized impact, there is no denying there are players whose importance overwhelmingly dwarfs that of their team-mates.

And, for all the work NFL teams do to put together 90-man rosters and then get them down to 53, so many critical games are decided by a handful of key plays by one player.

As the NFL approaches the 2022 regular season, there are a collection of players, not all of whom are quarterbacks, who look almost certain to have a defining influence on the campaign.

Here, with the help of its advanced data, Stats Perform ranks the most important players of the 2022 NFL season.

10. Robert Hainsey - Center, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers' hopes of reclaiming the Lombardi Trophy following Tom Brady's decision to end his 40-day retirement were dealt a massive blow last month when center Ryan Jensen suffered a serious knee injury.

Jensen has been one of the most underrated and pivotal factors behind Brady's success in his two seasons in Tampa. The quarterback's relationship with his center is critical to any offense and Brady has enjoyed an outstanding rapport with Jensen.

Now Jensen's replacement Hainsey must quickly establish a similar connection with Brady if Tampa Bay's offense is to perform at its peak in 2022.

Additionally, Hainsey - a third-round pick in the 2021 draft who played only 29 snaps as a rookie - must attempt to replicate Jensen's performance of last season.

Jensen was 11th among all centers with a stunt-adjusted pass block win rate of 80.66 per cent, while his double team-adjusted run block win rate of 87.92 per cent was the best for his position and second among all offensive linemen.

It is a tall order for Hainsey to reach that level in his first season as a starter. However, it is crucial he ensures the drop-off from Hainsey is not too steep so Brady can keep an offense that was the third-most efficient in the NFL, according to Stats Perform's Efficiency Versus Expected (EVE) metric, performing at a championship-calibre standard.

9. Nick Chubb - Running Back, Cleveland Browns

The furore around the Deshaun Watson saga is rightfully unlikely to die down any time soon despite the NFL closing the book in the context of league discipline.

With Watson set to be suspended for the first 11 games, the Browns will be walking a tightrope as they bid to stay in contention with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in their starter's absence.

Brissett has a 14-23 record as a starter and last season his well-thrown percentage of 75.8 across his five starts for the Miami Dolphins was the eighth-worst among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.

Cleveland may, therefore, need to take the emphasis off Brissett, and the best way for them to do that is by leaning on arguably the premier running back in the NFL. 

The Browns led the NFL with 5.09 yards per carry last season, their success built around Chubb's complete skill set.

Chubb was third among running backs with a minimum of 100 carries with an average of 3.44 yards before contact per rush. He was tied 10th in yards after contact per carry (2.17) and led the NFL in yards per carry on plays where there was a run disruption by a defender, his average of 4.51 illustrating his ability to create yardage for himself even when the defense broke into the backfield.

His performances helped the Browns finish second in yards over expected on running plays and, though an undoubtedly talented defense will do its share of the heavy lifting, Chubb must ensure the devastating efficiency Cleveland displayed on the ground last year is maintained for the offense to perform at a high enough level to keep a team harbouring Super Bowl aspirations in the mix until Watson returns.

8. A.J. Brown - Wide Receiver, Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's blockbuster draft-day trade for Brown was the clearest signal yet of the Eagles' intention to do everything they can to make Jalen Hurts succeed as their franchise quarterback.

Brown arrived in Philadelphia after racking up 1,000-yard seasons in two of his three campaigns with the Tennessee Titans. He would have had a third had Brown not been forced to miss four games through injury last season, and Brown projects as the ideal receiver to help take Hurts to the next level.

The former Ole Miss star thrived in a Titans offense based heavily around play-action passing concepts.

Meshing with Hurts, who ranked sixth in well-thrown rate (80.4 per cent) on play-action among quarterbacks with at least 50 such throws and averaged a league-leading 16.78 air yards per attempt on those passes, should not be a problem for Brown, who figures to make life significantly easier for his quarterback.

Indeed, Brown gives Hurts a physical wideout who can make tough contested catches over the middle of the field and has the route-running talent to consistently separate from defenders to make big plays. Brown produced a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 64 per cent of targets (including the playoffs) and was tied for the NFL lead (min. 100 targets) in burn yards per route last season with an average of 4.0.

Everything is seemingly set up for a blissful marriage between quarterback and number one wide receiver. There is a lot of pressure on Hurts to succeed with a loaded offense but, similarly, Brown will be under intense scrutiny as he will be tasked with continuing his outstanding Titans displays and, critically, avoiding any injury problems that could limit the ceiling of a team many anticipate becoming contenders after a flurry of offseason activity. 

7. Davante Adams - Wide Receiver, Las Vegas Raiders

Adams made a decision that changed the landscape of both the NFC and AFC when he eschewed the chance to stay with the Packers to sign a five-year, $141.25million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders following a trade that allowed him to reunite with college quarterback Derek Carr.

While Aaron Rodgers must adapt and excel without his long-time favourite target in Green Bay, Adams starts his new era in Las Vegas under tremendous pressure to live up to his megadeal.

The numbers from his time in Green Bay suggest he should have no problem doing so. 

Adams is second in receiving yards (3,924) and touchdowns (34) over the past three seasons. With an above-league average burn rate of 65.6 per cent last season, Adams was fifth in burn yards per route (3.5) among receivers with a minimum of 100 targets (including the playoffs). He was second (3.4) and first (3.9) in the same metric in 2019 and 2020.

His consistency in creating significant separation from defenders must continue in his new home for the Raiders' big swing to pay dividends in an AFC West division now widely regarded as the best in the league following a series of high-profile moves by all its inhabitants.

Moreover, Adams must re-establish the rapport he had in college with Carr, who had a well-thrown rate of 81.6 per cent that was third among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts in 2021.

Carr has the accuracy to reap the benefits of playing with Adams as Rodgers did. As long as the change of scenery does not provoke a surprising Adams downturn, the Raiders will have the arsenal to match the fireworks their division rivals can produce.  

6. Aaron Donald - Defensive Tackle, Los Angeles Rams

To label Donald as an important player is arguably the most obvious statement that can be made about the NFL.

But, with significant doubt hanging over the fitness of the Los Angeles Rams' star quarterback Matthew Stafford, there may be an onus on Donald to carry the burden of helping them repeat as Super Bowl champions.

While Stafford is still expected to play in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills, he has spent the offseason dealing with an elbow issue head coach Sean McVay conceded is "abnormal" for a quarterback.

That at least creates the possibility of Stafford enduring injury-related poor performances or even missing time if it is eventually determined he requires surgery.

Playing in an NFC West division that houses a fellow NFC heavyweight in the San Francisco 49ers, the Rams can ill-afford to have any such scenario result in prolonged struggles.

Thankfully for the Rams, Donald is as impactful as Stafford when it comes to deciding games, as he did in Super Bowl LVI with his key fourth-down pressure of Joe Burrow.

Donald comfortably led all defensive tackles in both pressure rate (28.1 per cent) and run disruption rate (37.2) last season. No other defensive tackle with a pressure rate of 20 per cent or better had a run disruption rate of 30 per cent or higher.

With the spectre of possible quarterback injury issues hanging over the Rams, it is imperative Donald continues to produce his frequently game-winning destruction for Los Angeles to mitigate the influence of any such problems.

5. Von Miller - Edge Rusher, Buffalo Bills

The Bills famously failed to finish off the Kansas City Chiefs in last season's epic Divisional Round playoff clash as inexplicably soft defensive play-calling allowed Kansas City to move into range for a game-tying field goal in the final 13 seconds of regulation.

Yet one of the reasons it got to that point was the Bills' failure to convert their pressures of Patrick Mahomes into damaging sacks.

Buffalo registered 23 pressures of Mahomes, the most by any defensive team in the Divisional Round, but managed to get him on the ground just twice.

That performance will surely have had some influence on the decision to sign Miller to a lucrative six-year contract following his Super Bowl-winning sojourn with the Rams.

Miller's 115.5 sacks since entering the league in 2011 are the most in the NFL, and he proved he is still one of the best pressure generators in the NFL in 2021. His stunt-adjusted pass rush win rate of 43.4 per cent was the fifth-highest among edge rushers with at least 100 one on one matchups.

The Bills can be confident Josh Allen and the offense will put them in a position to contend, but it is Miller's addition to a defense with few holes that may be the move to get them over the top.

Buffalo made a big bet on Miller maintaining his outstanding 2021 form. It is imperative that gamble pays off and, if some of his wisdom from years at the top rubs off on young edge rushers Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham, the Bills will be extremely satisfied with their decision to put faith in the former Denver Bronco.

4. Patrick Mahomes - Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs

While the likes of the Raiders and the Bills are plotting to do what the Cincinnati Bengals did in last season's AFC Championship Game and topple the Chiefs, Mahomes and Co. are set to face internal challenges in their bid to remain atop the AFC West.

The primary challenge for the Chiefs will be to replace the impact of Tyreek Hill, the three-time first-team All-Pro speedster sent to the Miami Dolphins in a blockbuster trade.

Hill's threat as a downfield receiver tormented opposing defenses during his time in Kansas City, and he was second among receivers with at least 100 targets with a burn rate of 70.8 per cent (including the playoffs) in 2021.

Though the Chiefs did sign a replacement burner in the form of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the absence of Hill's game-breaking speed will likely force Mahomes to target underneath areas more frequently.

Mahomes was already forced to adapt in such a fashion last season to combat the two-high safety defenses thrown at the Chiefs by teams looking to nullify Kansas City's big-play threat.

Kansas City's struggles against such defenses served as one of the defining narratives of last season. It was a narrative, however, that was somewhat exaggerated and the Chiefs had clearly hit their stride by the end of the year.

Across the final five weeks of the season, the Chiefs averaged 283.6 net passing yards per game, the fourth-most in the NFL. They hit a significant speed bump in the second half of the conference title game, but Mahomes has had plenty of time to brush off that disappointment and needs to rediscover his best without one of his key support acts for the Chiefs to be the class of a stacked conference in 2022.

3. Lamar Jackson - Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens

Amid a flurry of big-money deals for quarterbacks and receivers alike, one high-profile contract saga has remained unsettled.

There has been no sign of an imminent agreement between the Ravens and Jackson, who will be an unrestricted free agent in 2023 unless they can come to terms on an extension.

To say Jackson is important to the Ravens is to put it extremely mildly. He finished in the top five in Efficiency Versus Expected among quarterbacks in expected passing situations in 2019 and 2020 before an injury derailed 2021 campaign and, since taking over as the Ravens' starter in 2019, has averaged more yards per carry (6.36) than any other player in the NFL.

With 103 of his 468 rush attempts going for 10 yards or more, Jackson's explosive run rate of 22 per cent also stands as the best in the NFL over that same period.

Jackson's success in harnessing the dual-threat upside, as he did in spectacular fashion three years ago, will decide if the Ravens return to prominence in the AFC after the frustration of 2021.

Beyond that, however, the extent to which he nears his 2019 zenith could have a huge bearing on his negotiations with the Ravens next offseason should the impasse continue.

If Jackson performs at a level close to his MVP season, the Ravens will be facing the prospect of making him the highest-paid player in the NFL by a potentially massive margin in 2023. An unconvincing and unsuccessful season for Jackson may see him lose a lot of leverage.

2. Aaron Rodgers - Quarterback, Green Bay Packers

It was an offseason of contrasting emotions for the back-to-back MVP, who looks in line to finish his career in Green Bay after signing a three-year, $150.8m deal that made him the highest-paid player in US sports on an annual basis but must renew his quest for a second Super Bowl title without Adams.

The prospect of trying to climb the mountain sans Adams looks a daunting one considering their remarkable rapport and the fact Rodgers couldn't hit anyone but him during the Packers' Divisional Round loss to the 49ers last season.

Rodgers has to establish a connection with two young rookie receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, the latter of whom has enjoyed a sparkling preseason.

Green Bay still made moves to make Rodgers' life easier, though that impact may be less tangible than the one he and Adams produced consistently.

The Packers built up an increasingly talented defense in the draft, adding to their options on that side of the ball and improving the odds of Rodgers coming on to the field with favourable field position.

His receiving options may have changed dramatically, but Rodgers has no room to offer excuses given the apparent strength of the defense.

The 38-year-old's ridiculous consistency is fuelling thoughts of him going deep into his 40s, a la Brady; however, Rodgers' time to win a second ring is running out. After enjoying dominant season after dominant season with Adams as his top receiver, the challenge for the four-time MVP now is to elevate a young and unproven supporting cast as he seeks to right previous playoff wrongs.

1. Trey Lance - Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers

A team that was minutes away from a second Super Bowl appearance in three years handing the keys to the offense over to a quarterback with just two starts to his name? It sounds risky, and there is an inherent danger in San Francisco moving into the Trey Lance era.

But this is why the Niners traded three first-round picks to the Dolphins to move up to the third pick in the 2021 draft to select Lance. There is risk, yet it is unquestionably worth the potential reward.

Lance will be taking over an offense that finished the 2021 season first in Efficiency Versus Expected, a testament to the plethora of talent on that unit, Jimmy Garoppolo's comfort in the offense and the play-calling of Kyle Shanahan.

The task for Lance is to weaponise the deep passing game of one of the most consistent and dangerous attacks in the NFL. While San Francisco might have to sacrifice some efficiency for him to succeed, the numbers indicate he is up to the job.

Garoppolo had eight pass plays of 40 yards or more across 15 games in 2021. Lance produced three in his two starts in relief of his injured predecessor.

On top of that, Lance averaged 10.10 air yards per attempt – the second most in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 50 passes – and no player to average at least 9.0 air yards had a better well-thrown percentage than Lance's 77.1.

The prospect of Lance reproducing that blend of aggressiveness and accuracy over a longer sample size while adding another dimension to a running game that racked up the eighth-most explosive rushes of at least 10 yards in 2021 should terrify opponents.

San Francisco's roster is filled with Pro Bowlers on offense and the Niners have further stacked a defense that forced the most negative plays (122) in the NFL last season with reinforcements up front and in the secondary.

The 49ers have a Super Bowl-ready roster but, for all his success, Garoppolo has been unable to get them over the hump to a long-awaited sixth title.

Lance has the upside to end that wait and the Niners may well become Super Bowl favourites if he is as advertised. Should he flounder, a prospective challenger could be removed from the NFC playoff picture. Simply put, there is no player more important to the hopes of a legitimate contender in the NFL.

Tom Brady could have ended up joining the Las Vegas Raiders, but their quarterback Derek Carr is not focusing on what might have been.

UFC president Dana White claimed last weekend he had previously set up a deal for Brady and Rob Gronkowski to join the Raiders, who made the move from Oakland to Las Vegas in 2020.

White claimed he had worked on a deal for Brady to head to the Raiders, rather than join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, after the veteran left the New England Patriots.

In an appearance on the UFC With the Gronks broadcast on ESPN, White said: "I worked to put that deal together for Brady and Gronk to come to the Raiders. It was almost a done deal. And at the last minute, [Jon] Gruden blew the deal up and said that he didn't want him and all hell broke loose, man. It was crazy.

"And Brady was already looking at houses. It wasn't said yet that Gronk was going to be coming. So Las Vegas would have had Brady and Gronk the year that the Bucs won the Super Bowl except Gruden blew the deal up."

A move for Brady might have signalled the end of the road with the team for Carr, who was drafted by the Raiders in 2014 and has been their starting quarterback since.

Carr, though, is paying little attention to what could have happened, and is instead focused on the here and now.

"It was a moment to put things in perspective," the 31-year-old told reporters. "It really doesn't matter.

"At the end of the day, anything I say will just be blasted out there so I'm just going to completely remove myself and just keep trying to play football. It's been nice just answering football questions.

"Hopefully, no more drama in the city."

Carr signed a three-year contract extension with the Raiders in April, a deal that includes a no-trade clause.

Tom Brady almost joined the Las Vegas Raiders in 2020 after a deal was brokered by UFC chief Dana White – only for Jon Gruden to walk away from negotiations in the final stages.

Elite quarterback and perennial winner Brady entered the 2020 season as a free agent, despite boasting six Super Bowl titles and nine AFC championships.

The Raiders, aided by the involvement of White, were reportedly set to swoop for the former New England Patriots star before the Tampa Bay Buccaneers secured a deal for one of NFL's most coveted names.

Brady would throw 4,633 passing yards and 40 touchdown passes as Tampa Bay won eight consecutive games en route to his seventh Super Bowl title in his maiden Buccaneers term.

The intervention of then-Raiders coach Gruden proved the stumbling point as Brady and colleague Rob Gronkowski, who was contracted to the Patriots at the time, ended up playing for Tampa Bay.

"I worked to put that deal together for Brady and Gronk to come to the Raiders," White said on ESPN during Saturday's UFC 278 coverage after being convinced by Gronkowski to tell the story.

"It was almost a done deal. And at the last minute, Gruden blew the deal up and said that he didn't want him and all hell broke loose, man. It was crazy.

"And Brady was already looking at houses. It wasn't said yet that Gronk was going to be coming. So Las Vegas would have had Brady and Gronk the year that the Bucs won the Super Bowl, except Gruden blew the deal up."

While Brady was said to have been a long-term target of the Raiders should he become a free agent, White believes the Las Vegas franchise could have comfortably secured Gronkowski as well.

Neither arrived and duly went on to Super Bowl success with the Buccaneers, with Gruden resigning as Raiders coach in October 2021 – yet Gronkowski has no regrets.

"I'm glad it did not go through," Gronkowski added. "It all worked out for the best, man. I'm glad we went to Tampa, man. It just worked out. I love that place."

Tampa Bay are preparing for their third campaign with Brady as their quarterback, though the veteran has not appeared at their training camp in pre-season.

New Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels gushed over the atmosphere during his first game at Allegiant Stadium, where his side defeated the Minnesota Vikings 26-20 on Sunday.

With the established stars all sitting out, Raiders backup quarterbacks Nick Mullens and Jarrett Stidham both performed well, with Mullens going seven-for-nine for 94 yards and a touchdown, while Stidham completed 10-of-15 passes for 68 yards, also adding 16 yards and a rushing touchdown with his legs.

In a game that featured veteran receivers Demarcus Robinson, Keelan Cole and Mack Hollins, it was rookie D.J. Turner who stood out for the Raiders, with 58 yards and a touchdown while catching three of his four targets.

Over 61,000 packed into Allegiant Stadium for their first taste of competitive football this season, and McDaniels said he had never seen anything like it for what is essentially a meaningless game.

"This was a special day," he said. "I've been around a lot of preseason games over 22 years, and I don't remember one feeling like this.

"The reception from our fans – getting to know Raider nation the way that you see them now – it's just different.

"I've competed against them a handful of times in my time in the NFL, but to now be on the same side, you understand why it is what it is.

"I'm lucky and blessed to be the head coach here. That is the best atmosphere in a preseason game that I've ever been a part of, and that's easy to say that, clearly.

"I can't wait to play another time in here, and then get to the regular season and have the opportunity to do it for real in regular games, but what a great, passionate fanbase we have. To have the girls here, and my son on the sideline, it's a special day."

Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell announced on Friday that starting quarterback Kirk Cousins has tested positive for COVID-19 and will not travel with the team for Sunday's preseason opener at the Las Vegas Raiders.

Cousins will be required to isolate for at least five days before being allowed to rejoin the team at training camp, provided he tests negative.

The 2021 Pro Bowl selection missed Thursday's practice and was sent home from camp with what the Vikings initially termed an illness.

O'Connell did not reveal who will start under center Sunday, but did say both veteran Sean Mannion and second-year pro Kellen Mond will see extensive action.

"No matter who starts, they'll both play a ton," O'Connell remarked.

Cousins was in the NFL's protocols for unvaccinated players last season and missed the Vikings' Week 17 game at Green Bay on January 2 following a positive diagnosis. Mannion started in his place and threw for 189 yards and a touchdown in a 37-10 Minnesota loss to the Packers.

The NFL has lifted coronavirus protocols for this season, though all players must adhere to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines if they test positive.

While most established starters typically sit out the NFL's Hall of Fame Game, Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs saw plenty of action last Thursday night.

Jacobs touched the ball on seven of the Raiders' first 12 plays – rushing five times for 30 yards and catching two passes for 14 yards – leading some to believe the team was deliberately giving him a larger workload so there would be more tape on him for a potential trade.

Las Vegas coach Josh McDaniels quashed those rumours on Monday, dismissing the idea of the team looking for a trade.

"We have a lot of confidence in J.J. And, you know, he did well with his opportunities, which we hoped he would," McDaniels said. "But no, we have no desire to do that at all."

Some of the speculation that the Raiders want to trade Jacobs stems from the fact he is entering the final year of his rookie contract after the team decided not to pick up his fifth-year option this past offseason.

He was one of the bigger names on the Raiders not to get a contract extension under the new regime led by McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler after quarterback Derek Carr, edge rusher Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow all received big paydays.

Jacobs has led the Raiders in rushing each of his first three seasons in the league with his 3,087 rushing yards ranking fifth in the NFL since his 2019 rookie season.

He is expected to be Las Vegas' starting running back again this season, though the team did draft Zamir White out of Georgia in the fourth round of April’s draft, signed veteran free agent Brandon Bolden and will get Kenyan Drake back from a broken right ankle that cut short his 2021 season.

White led the Raiders with 75 all-purpose yards in Thursday’s 27-11 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, while Drake ran five times for nine yards. 

"As I said after the game, I really do believe that the backs, don't really get to simulate what's going to happen during the course of the regular season," McDaniels said. "And so, giving them an opportunity to actually get tackled, take care of the football and get acclimated to a new system, quite honestly, I think is the goal. Each man's different.

"We'll try to do what's best for the team. We felt like that was a good thing, a good opportunity for all our backs that played."