While the Premier League title race unfolds, there is another tussle playing out at the bottom.

And this weekend, six of the teams at the wrong end of the table fight it out against each other.

On Saturday, Luton Town will hope to propel themselves out of the relegation zone by overcoming Brentford at Kenilworth Road, though the 15th-placed Bees will know that another win could all but end their worries of dropping down to the Championship.

At the same time, the two bottom clubs go head-to-head at Bramall Lane, with Sheffield United hosting Burnley. Both the Blades and the Clarets look likely to go down, though if either are to survive, then taking three points from this one is a must.

Sunday’s early game is a huge one at Goodison Park, as Everton and Nottingham Forest – both impacted by points deductions for breaches of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – face off. The Toffees are 16th, a point better off than the Tricky Trees, but Sean Dyche’s team are on a dismal run of just one win in 15 league matches.

Crystal Palace are perhaps not out of the woods just yet, though after their stunning win at Anfield last time out, the Eagles will hope to carry on the momentum when they face West Ham.

And using Opta data, we can assess the likelihood of the Premier League relegation scrap, as well as the underlying metrics behind each of these teams.

 

Let’s work from the top down.

Palace, after that shock 1-0 win over Liverpool, are now not considered to be relegation candidates by Opta’s predictive model, which gives them a 46.5 per cent chance of staying right where they are in 14th.

The Eagles are six points clear of Everton in 17th, and while not mathematically safe, Oliver Glasner’s team are certainly within touching distance.

It is worth noting, though, that according to the Opta power rankings, Palace have the most difficult run-in of all these seven teams, with the average rating of their remaining opponents coming in at 87.9. Like the Toffees and Sheffield United, Palace have six matches left to play, though they do not play any of the teams below them in that run.

Next come Brentford. The Bees have five games remaining but, with 33 points, are likely just a win away from tying up their safety, and they will be hoping that comes against Luton (as well Everton and Forest fans).

According to Opta’s model, Brentford have the second-easiest fixture list of any team in the league, with their average opponent rating of 85.1 higher only than Newcastle United’s (84.1).

The Bees do, though, face a trip to Everton after they head to Luton, so should the worst occur and they lose those matches, then Thomas Frank’s team could find themselves firmly back in danger. As it stands, Brentford’s chances of going down are a meagre 0.3 per cent.

Brentford are the second-worst expected goals underperformers in the competition this season, having scored six fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they have created, suggesting that with better finishing, and a bit more luck, they would likely be clear of danger already.

And if that can be said for Brentford, then it can be emphatically repeated for 16th-placed Everton.

 

Even factoring in the eight points that have been taken off them this term, Everton – who were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea on Monday – could have been out of danger had they simply come close to matching their xG. They are by far the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to that metric – Dyche’s side have scored 32 goals (which ranks 19th in the league) from an xG of 48, a whopping underperformance of 16.

Sunday’s clash with Forest kick-starts a huge week of home games for the Toffees, with a Merseyside derby against Liverpool following on April 24, before Brentford then visit Goodison Park.

With Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United among their final four fixtures, Everton should still have some confidence – they have taken seven points off those sides already this term, and a repeat of that could be enough, though a final-day away outing at Arsenal is ominous, given the Toffees have shipped nine goals in their last two visits to Emirates Stadium. Opta predicts they will stay up, but Everton do have an 8.9 per cent chance of slipping out of the top tier for the first time in over 70 years.

Below them, Forest will no doubt have been buoyed by Everton’s sorry performance at Stamford Bridge. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team do have a rather sizeable 29.9 per cent chance of going down, so a victory at Goodison Park could be vital.

Especially considering Forest’s next fixture comes against Manchester City, albeit it is at home, where they also face Chelsea in between away clashes with Sheffield United and Burnley.

Perhaps worrying for Forest, however, is that in their three matches against Everton, the Blades and Burnley this term, they have taken only four points. Interestingly, while Forest have shipped 58 goals – a figure which betters only the bottom three, they have been unfortunate to concede so many based on their expected goals against (xGA), which is actually the sixth best in the league at 47.4.

Then we have Luton. The Hatters have been one of the stories of the season, and despite their small budget have a brilliant chance of survival.

That being said, Opta’s predictive model does anticipate they will go down, with Rob Edwards’ side having a 54.3 per cent chance of finishing where they are in 18th, with their chances of finishing in 17th being 29.6 per cent.

Victory over Brentford, who beat them 3-1 earlier in the campaign, would see Luton move out of the bottom three, though, and with five games left, they do have what is considered a relatively easy run-in when it comes to the average rating of those teams they are going up against, at 85.4.

That being said, Luton’s defensive record this season is awful. The Hatters have shipped 70 goals from an xGA of 69.7. They will need to tighten up if they are to complete the great escape.

 

What about the bottom two?

Well, they are perhaps down and out. After visiting South Yorkshire on Saturday, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team have to go to Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium either side of hosting Newcastle, and Opta’s predictive model suggests they will go down – they have just a 1.6 per cent chance of survival.

There is an even smaller chance of the Blades, who are 20th, staying up, at just 0.2 per cent.

Chris Wilder’s team are the team with the fewest goals scored in the top flight, at 30, while they have conceded 84 – the worst in the division, and while victory over the Clarets would provide a morale-boost, the Blades seemed destined for the Championship.

Chris Wilder felt luck was against Sheffield United again after they were shoved another step closer to the Championship by a 2-0 defeat at Brentford.

Mikkel Damsgaard’s cross was turned into his own net by teenager Oliver Arblaster for the game’s crucial opening goal.

Substitute Frank Onyeka slid in a second with time ticking down on both the match and the Blades’ stay in the Premier League.

Another defeat – their 22nd of the season – leaves them 10 points adrift of safety with only six games remaining.

To rub salt in the wounds from a chastening campaign, Sheffield United found out this week that a two-point deduction awaits them upon their now almost-inevitable drop into the Championship.

“I don’t think there was a lot in the game tactically, our shape was good out of possession,” said Wilder.

“For clubs in our position, to get to 0-0 at half-time is an achievement and it wasn’t a backs-to-wall first half.

“My disappointment is we tried to score with our first attack and if we’d got the first goal, it would have been a different game.

“We felt we could make it a nervous afternoon for Brentford. You could sense the relief from them.

“The first goal is a counter-attack, Ollie gets back into position, a wicked deflection and it goes flying in. Yet again it’s something that goes against us.”

A first win in 10 significantly eased any lingering worries Brentford had of being sucked into trouble.

They had a goal disallowed either side of Arblaster’s unfortunate opener, with Mathias Jorgensen offside when he poked in Mathias Jensen’s free-kick and a Damsgaard volley ruled out for a foul by Nathan Collins on Ollie McBurnie.

So the relief was palpable when Onyeka struck from a half-cleared throw-in to secure a much-needed victory.

It was one achieved without Ivan Toney, who was on the bench for the second match running and this time not required as a substitute.

“Happy and relieved,” was boss Thomas Frank’s immediate reaction. “I just said to the players, please don’t do that to me or themselves again – to not win in nine.

“That spell and this season is a reminder this league is brutal, relentless, the best and toughest league in the world.

“I’d been optimistic. We have great players, a great squad and then that hits you. But it’s a good win, a good performance – not through the roof – and I think it was well deserved.

“We got some luck from the first goal but we were due a bit.”

Luckless teenager Oliver Arblaster scored an own goal as Sheffield United were shoved another step closer to the Championship after a 2-0 defeat at Brentford.

Arblaster, making only his fifth Premier League start, held his head in his hands after inadvertently turning the ball past goalkeeper Ivo Grbic in the second half.

Substitute Frank Onyeka added a second with time ticking down on both the match and the Blades’ stay in the top flight.

Another defeat – their 22nd of the season – leaves Chris Wilder’s men 10 points adrift of safety with only six games remaining.

To rub salt in the wounds of a chastening campaign, Sheffield United found out this week that a two-point deduction awaits them upon their now almost-inevitable drop into the Championship.

United’s only real hope of a second away win of the season was by getting Ben Brereton Diaz and Ollie McBurnie up the pitch.

They managed it in the opening stages when Brereton Diaz raced through but his weak, left-footed finish was blocked by Bees goalkeeper Mark Flekken.

Brereton Diaz had a better chance when he cut inside Vitaly Janelt onto his favoured right foot, but his attempted curler flew too high.

Other than that Brentford, by no means out of the relegation picture themselves, were utterly dominant.

But, with Ivan Toney on the bench for the second match running, they were lacking a cutting edge in front of goal.

Sergio Reguilon headed an early Mads Roerslev cross over and Yanelt sidefooted the ball straight into the arms of Grbic.

Brentford’s best chance of the first half arrived nine minutes before the break and it was all of Sheffield United’s making.

Auston Trusty’s ball out from the back was straight to Bryan Mbeumo, who quick as a flash sent Neal Maupay through on goal.

But the French striker was stretching as he prodded the ball past the onrushing Grbic and it rolled agonisingly wide of the post.

Brentford had the ball in the net early in the second half but Mathias Jorgensen was clearly offside when he poked Mathias Jensen’s free-kick in.

But they made the breakthrough just after the hour mark when Mbeumo fed Mikkel Damsgaard down the right.

The Denmark midfielder charged forward and attempted a low cross towards Maupay, only for the unfortunate Arblaster to stick out a leg and turn the ball into his own net.

Moments later, Mbeumo’s free-kick across the edge of the penalty area was volleyed home first time by Damsgaard, only for a VAR check to spot a foul on McBurnie by Nathan Collins.

In stoppage time, two minutes after coming off the bench, midfielder Onyeka slid the ball past Grbic to heap more misery on United and wrap up a first win in 10 for the Bees.

Aston Villa boss Unai Emery praised Ollie Watkins’ desire after the striker scored two goals in the 3-3 draw with Brentford.

The England international was a doubt for the game with a hamstring injury but was passed fit and put his side ahead before rescuing a point after the Bees scored three goals in nine minutes to overturn a 2-0 deficit.

Watkins’ double took his Premier League tally to 18 for the season and he is firmly in the race for the Golden Boot, trailing Manchester City striker Erling Haaland by just one.

Emery said: “Ollie has been fantastic, his performances. Fantastic. He is very involved in the new demands we have as a club.

“Myself as a coach with them. And he is involving in it. His processes are getting better, his attitude every day, his wishes to get something collectively and individually is very important for his career.

“To be in the national team, to be one of the best scorers in the Premier League.

“This is his motivation every day. And to get it, to achieve it, is through hard work. And today one step more in his increase of the level.”

Brentford defender Sergio Reguilon had a hand in all three of his side’s goals, directly assisting for Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa on his first start since serving a suspension.

The Spaniard’s career in England has never really taken off since joining Tottenham from Real Madrid in 2020 but Thomas Frank thinks he might have found a home at Brentford.

“I was very pleased with his response,” he said. “I think Reggie is a very good player and he has proved that in his career.

“He needed a place to come to in Brentford where he will play and get the trust and opportunity to perform.

“I actually said to him when he came to us he will make six assists and two goals, and now he is on three assists so he needs to hurry up! But he hadn’t made an assist for one and a half years or something like that.

“I think he has had some very good games for us and obviously he was involved in the red card and penalty against Burnley, and a very good response today.”

Unai Emery says Aston Villa have to work on their mentality after their Champions League qualification hopes took a huge hit in a 3-3 draw with Brentford.

Villa looked to be consolidating fourth position after goals either side of half-time from Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers put them in the ascendency.

But they hit the self-destruct button as three goals in nine minutes from Mathias Jorgensen, Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa saw Brentford turn the game on its head.

The hosts had to rally and a Watkins header rescued a point, but the result handed the impetus to Tottenham in the race for guaranteed Champions League qualification.

Watkins was scathing in his assessment after the game, saying Villa lack the “maturity or game intelligence”, and Emery responded.

“We are disappointed and frustrated because we played very well until the minute 60 and after the minute 75, but in 10 minutes in the Premier League we know we can lose everything we have built before,” Emery said.

“The mentality of the team we always have to work and increasing and be demanding, this is a process.

“Today, everybody is a little bit upset and not understanding clearly what happened.

“I will work with the players and tell them how we can continue in our way, being successful like we are, with 60 points after 32 games is more than our expectation before.

“But we have to be demanding to compete but we can draw a match like today when we lose a little bit of focus in the moment.

“The first 60 minutes I played like I really want, like we have played here before when we won a lot of matches in a row, it was completely difficult to understand how we played afterwards. It is my responsibility and I will work on it.”

Brentford boss Thomas Frank has no issues with Ivan Toney and Nathan Collins’ heated exchange at the end of the match.

The team-mates were angrily disagreeing with each other after the full-time whistle, with Toney seemingly unhappy about Collins not passing to him.

Asked what it was about, Frank said: “I don’t know, I was over there speaking to them but I don’t know exactly what it was and I don’t really care.

“I know it is two very competitive people that want to win a match. I don’t know exactly what it was the situation, but we have a very good culture and a united team and it is OK to have a little bit of friction.

“They will sort it out no problem.”

Their disagreement could have been born out of Brentford’s winless run extending to nine games as they failed to see it out after taking the lead.

“Fantastic game and brand for the Premier League, this is showing why it is the best league in the world and the most entertaining,” the Dane added.

“Probably Unai and I would say we both should have won the game, both can argue well for why we should, OK in the end it’s a fair result.

“I think it is a fine point but it is two points dropped when we are leading in that situation and we haven’t been able to get over the line. But the performance is another step in the right direction.”

Aston Villa’s Premier League top-four hopes suffered a big blow as they threw away a two-goal lead to draw 3-3 against Brentford, who scored three times in nine minutes.

Villa looked to be consolidating fourth position after goals either side of half-time from Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers put them in the ascendency.

But they hit the self-destruct button as quickfire strikes from Mathias Jorgensen, Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa saw Brentford turn the game on its head.

The hosts had to rally and a Watkins header rescued a point, but the result handed the impetus to Tottenham in the race for guaranteed Champions League qualification.

Spurs, who are three points behind in fifth, play relegation threatened Nottingham Forest on Sunday and also have a game in hand.

The draw means Brentford’s winless run extends to nine games and they will see this as a chance missed.

After an even opening, Villa almost took the lead midway through the first half when Lucas Digne’s inswinging corner was clawed away by Bees goalkeeper Mark Flekken.

An opener came in the 39th minute as Watkins grabbed his 23rd goal in all competitions and 17th in the league.

John McGinn, back after a three-game ban, floated in an inviting cross which Watkins headed down towards goal.

Flekken scrambled to scoop the ball away and Leon Bailey followed it in, but the goal decision system showed Watkins’ header had crossed the line.

Villa doubled their lead 32 seconds after the restart as Rogers opened his Villa account in style.

The January signing from Middlesbrough picked up a Youri Tielemans pass, weaved into the area and found the bottom corner.

The game appeared done but Brentford stunned their hosts with three goals in nine minutes.

They got themselves back in it just before the hour, but goalscorer Jorgensen did not know too much about it.

The defender completely missed his kick from Mikkel Damsgaard’s ball across goal, but it hit his standing foot and wrong-footed Emi Martinez.

The tension inside the stadium was palpable and 121 seconds later the Bees were level as Mbeumo volleyed home Sergio Reguilon’s cross from the left.

The remarkable turnaround was complete in the 68th minute as Reguilon was again the provider, squaring for Wissa to convert the easiest of tap-ins.

Suddenly Villa were mounting a rescue act in a game they thought they had already won.

And it took them 12 minutes to get back level as Watkins nodded home Bailey’s deflected cross after Flekken had come to claim it but missed it.

They threw everything forward in search of a winner, with Digne’s acrobatic effort going over, but they could not find a winner and dropped two points.

Aston Villa’s Premier League top-four hopes suffered a big blow as they threw away a two-goal lead to draw 3-3 against Brentford, who scored three times in nine minutes.

Villa looked to be consolidating fourth position after goals either side of half-time from Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers put them in the ascendency.

But they hit the self-destruct button as quickfire strikes from Mathias Jorgensen, Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa saw Brentford turn the game on its head.

The hosts had to rally and a Watkins header rescued a point, but the result handed the impetus to Tottenham in the race for guaranteed Champions League qualification.

Spurs, who are three points behind in fifth, play relegation threatened Nottingham Forest on Sunday and also have a game in hand.

The draw means Brentford’s winless run extends to nine games and they will see this as a chance missed.

After an even opening, Villa almost took the lead midway through the first half when Lucas Digne’s inswinging corner was clawed away by Bees goalkeeper Mark Flekken.

An opener came in the 39th minute as Watkins grabbed his 23rd goal in all competitions and 16th in the league.

John McGinn, back after a three-game ban, floated in an inviting cross which Watkins headed down towards goal.

Flekken scrambled to scoop the ball away and Leon Bailey followed it in, but the goal decision system showed Watkins’ header had crossed the line.

Villa doubled their lead 32 seconds after the restart as Rogers opened his Villa account in style.

The January signing from Middlesbrough picked up a Youri Tielemans pass, weaved into the area and found the bottom corner.

The game appeared done but Brentford stunned their hosts with three goals in nine minutes.

They got themselves back in it just before the hour, but goalscorer Jorgensen did not know too much about it.

The defender completely missed his kick from Mikkel Damsgaard’s ball across goal, but it hit his standing foot and wrong-footed Emi Martinez.

The tension inside the stadium was palpable and 121 seconds later the Bees were level as Mbeumo volleyed home Sergio Reguilon’s cross from the left.

The remarkable turnaround was complete in the 68th minute as Reguilon was again the provider, squaring for Wissa to convert the easiest of tap-ins.

Suddenly Villa were mounting a rescue act in a game they thought they had already won.

And it took them 12 minutes to get back level as Watkins nodded home Bailey’s deflected cross after Flekken had come to claim it but missed it.

They threw everything forward in search of a winner, with Digne’s acrobatic effort going over, but they could not find a winner and dropped two points.

Roberto De Zerbi admitted Brighton dropped two points in the race for Europe after they were held to a goalless draw at Brentford.

The Seagulls failed to take advantage of their nearest rivals West Ham, Newcastle and Wolves all dropping points a day earlier after a drab encounter in west London.

“We have to make a difference between the performance and the result. I’m really pleased for the performance but we are disappointed for the result,” said Seagulls boss De Zerbi.

“We shot 24 times, we had six shots on target but we didn’t score and we are disappointed because in our head we lost two points.”

The main talking point came in first-half stoppage time when referee Andrew Madley was sent to take a look at the pitchside monitor by the VAR for a potential penalty for a foul by Yoane Wissa on Lewis Dunk.

That turn of events almost always ends with a spot-kick being awarded but, in something of a collector’s item, the on-field official stuck to his guns and ruled in favour of the Bees forward, much to Brighton skipper Dunk’s frustration.

“Fantastic decision,” smiled Bees boss Thomas Frank.

De Zerbi added: “I think the referee was correct, maybe the decision was correct. My assistant told me that at the beginning it was Dunk who made the foul.

“I’ve never seen the referee watch the screen and change the decision of the VAR. I learnt something new today.”

Ivan Toney saw his goal drought stretch to seven matches for Brentford.

The England striker turned inside Jan Paul van Hecke 12 yards out in the first half but lost his footing slightly and Bart Verbruggen saved his scuffed shot.

After the break Toney took aim from 25 yards with a free-kick but it sailed over the crossbar.

Substitute Danny Welbeck had two chances to win it for Brighton in stoppage time but he headed a corner wide and then fizzed a low drive the wrong side of the far post.

It was the first time since November that the Bees had picked up points in back-to-back games, following Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United.

“An unbeaten run, finally!” said Frank.

“Yeah, I think it was a good point, a well deserved point, a point that we have missed a lot of times this season.

“If you can’t win, don’t lose, and we got a clean sheet on top of it. That’s going in the right direction so I’m really pleased with that.”

Brighton could not turn a lucrative week off the pitch into a profitable one on it after they were held to a goalless draw at Brentford.

The Seagulls announced on Tuesday an eye-watering annual profit of £122.8million, a record for an English club, following the most successful season in their history.

Chairman Tony Bloom celebrated by taking his place among the away fans for the match he probably wants to win more than any other, even over arch-rivals Crystal Palace.

Bloom refuses to go into the directors’ box at the Gtech Stadium as he and Bees owner Matthew Benham had an almighty fall-out over their business interests some 20 years ago.

Unfortunately that simmering feud was not matched by the on-pitch hostilities in a drab stalemate in west London.

It meant Brighton, who finished sixth last season, failed to take advantage of West Ham, Newcastle and Wolves all dropping points a day earlier in the race for European places.

Brentford, meanwhile, edged another point clear of the relegation zone – they are now six above 18th-placed Luton.

The Bees almost opened the scoring early on after a sweeping move from one end of the pitch to the other.

The ball came from Nathan Collins, via Ivan Toney and Mathias Jensen, to Keane Lewis-Potter whose near-post cross was put narrowly wide by Yoane Wissa.

Toney’s first sight of goal came after half an hour after he was played into the area by Wissa.

The England striker turned inside Jan Paul van Hecke 12 yards out but lost his footing slightly and Bart Verbruggen saved his scuffed shot.

For Brighton, top scorer Joao Pedro, back after two months out injured, drew a save from Bees keeper Mark Flekken and Van Hecke’s shot was deflected over.

Facundo Buonanotte then fired across goal and wide, Adam Lallana was also off target and Flekken saved from Simon Adingra.

Referee Andrew Madley was sent to take a look at the pitchside monitor by the VAR for a potential penalty for a foul by Wissa on Lewis Dunk in first-half stoppage time but he stuck with his decision and ruled in favour of the Bees forward.

At the start of the second half Pedro’s cross found overlapping Brighton full-back Joel Veltman but his shot was always rising as it sailed into the stands.

Toney, without a goal in his previous six matches, took aim with a free-kick from 25 yards but sent it high over the crossbar.

Substitute Danny Welbeck had two chances in stoppage time to win it for Brighton but he headed a corner wide and then fizzed a low drive the wrong side of the far post as a distinctly low-key encounter ended goalless.

Erik Ten Hag admitted Brentford’s late equaliser is likely to prove costly in Manchester United’s already dwindling bid for a place in the Champions League.

United did little to turn down the noise surrounding manager Ten Hag’s future after an ultimately dramatic but largely uninspiring 1-1 draw in west London.

They looked to have turned a lifeless display into an unlikely three points after Mason Mount climbed off the bench to fire them ahead six minutes into stoppage time.

But Brentford equalised less than three minutes later through Kristoffer Ajer to snatch a point which was the least they deserved.

“We didn’t deserve to win but if you are winning you have to take this. Normally we are good in those circumstances,” said Ten Hag.

“In terms of aggressiveness Brentford were better but when you are winning the game you should bring it over the line.

“When you don’t play well you still have to win and we did it, almost. We didn’t play well but there was spirit and fight but not enough.

“There are still many games to go. Of course the points could be more expensive by the end. It should have been three points. By the end we will know. It could be an important point.

“Don’t lower the performance from Brentford, I’ve seen them against Man City, against Liverpool. But we should have done this better.

“I’m not happy with the performance, there is no misunderstanding. We should be consistent in the way we take a game and perform.”

Ten Hag had shrugged off speculation over his job this week before returning to the scene of his catastrophic second match in charge, when they conceded four goals in the opening 35 minutes.

On the evidence of this underwhelming performance, they have hardly made any progress since that chastening afternoon in August 2022.

In fact, Brentford had enough chances to stage a repeat performance of their 4-0 romp but for the wayward finishing which has made their season a significantly tougher one than the last.

They had 31 attempts at goal and incredibly hit the woodwork four times.

It really did not look like being their night when, deep into nine minutes of stoppage time, Casemiro set up Mount to convert at the far post.

But Brentford were not to be denied and, when Ivan Toney sent the ball across goal in the 99th minute, centre-half Ajer was on hand to secure a fully merited point.

Thomas Frank, whose side are now five points clear of the relegation zone, said: “I know we beat Man United 4-0 last year but I think we played better today.

“The way we dominated the game throughout, in terms of shots and dangerous situations, was very, very impressive.

“The way we dominated – 31 shots – how we are not winning that game I do not know.

“I almost lost faith in the football god when they scored, brutal. But the ability to come back from that is incredible.”

Manchester United did little to turn down the noise surrounding manager Erik Ten Hag’s future after an ultimately dramatic but largely uninspiring 1-1 draw at Brentford.

United looked to have turned a lifeless display into an unlikely three points after Mason Mount climbed off the bench to fire them ahead six minutes into stoppage time.

But Brentford equalised less than three minutes later through Kristoffer Ajer to snatch a point which was the least they deserved.

Ten Hag had shrugged off speculation over his job this week before returning to the scene of his catastrophic second match in charge, when they conceded four goals in the opening 35 minutes.

On the evidence of this underwhelming performance, they have hardly made any progress since that chastening afternoon in August 2022.

In fact, Brentford had enough chances to stage a repeat performance of their 4-0 romp but for the wayward finishing which has made their season a significantly tougher one than the last.

They had 31 attempts at goal and hit the woodwork four times before finally finding the net.

Ivan Toney, fresh from opening his England account against Belgium in midweek, raced through early on but his finish came back off the foot of the post.

The Bees hit the frame of the goal again when Mathias Jorgensen met Mathias Jensen’s cross with a powerful header which clipped the crossbar.

Toney threatened once more when he chased a long clearance and cut inside Victor Lindelof on the edge of the box, only to curl his shot over the top.

Still the chances came and went, with Vitaly Janelt driving across goal and wide, Yoane Wissa’s acrobatic effort flying off target and Keane Lewis-Potter heading straight at Andre Onana.

All United had to show for their limited endeavour in the first half was a Bruno Fernandes shot which fizzed wide and a deflected Marcus Rashford effort saved by Mark Flekken.

United did at least start the second half with a sense of urgency and Fernandes beat the offside trap before squaring for Rasmus Hojlund, whose first-time effort was brilliantly clawed away by Flekken.

Onana then outdid his opposite number with a stunning double save to keep out Yehor Yarmoliuk’s shot and Lewis-Potter’s follow-up.

Wissa came agonisingly close for the hosts when his volley shaved a post before an audacious Toney volley flew just over.

Toney had the ball in the net when he guided in a cross from substitute Bryan Mbeumo, but he was denied by a tight offside decision.

Moments later Mbeumo volleyed against the crossbar and it really did not look like being Brentford’s day when, deep into nine minutes of stoppage time, Casemiro set up Mount to convert at the far post.

But Brentford were not to be denied and when Toney sent the ball across goal in the 99th minute, Ajer was on hand to ensure United left with only a point which will do little for either their Champions League hopes or Ten Hag’s prospects of staying in a job this summer.

Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag is confident Kobbie Mainoo can deal with the hype following his impressive full England debut.

Just four months on from making his first Premier League start, the 18-year-old put in a man-of-the-match performance in Tuesday’s 2-2 draw against Belgium at Wembley.

Mainoo had not even been included in the initial England squad but followed a promising debut off the bench against Brazil by potentially earning a spot at Euro 2024 with his display against Belgium.

That performance has taken the midfielder’s stock to new heights but Ten Hag is confident the success will not go to his head.

“I thought it was very good, but we are not surprised,” the United boss said. “We have seen what he is capable of, that he can very quickly adapt to high levels. It looks very natural.

“We are very happy for him and of course a little bit proud. I would say very proud.

“It’s great for the academy of Manchester United that they bring up a player so young going into the national team. That is a big compliment for the whole club.

“I think definitely in the first place for himself because he did it.

“But also for all the ones who worked with him during his time in the academy, so it’s very good news for Manchester United.”

Asked if he has to manage the hype around Mainoo, Ten Hag said: “Yes, but we have discussed this before and so far he handles it very well.

“If he crosses the line, yeah, of course I as a manager, we as coaches, will interfere.

“But so far it’s not necessary because he enjoys football, he wants to win, he wants to give his best every day because he want to improve.

“As I say, he just wants to have fun on the pitch. For him, it’s fun to play dominant, to dictate the game and to win the game.”

Mainoo was conspicuous by his absence from United’s training photos on Thursday as Ten Hag’s side gear up for the Saturday evening trip to Brentford.

The Red Devils head to the capital looking to kick on after the jaw-dropping 4-3 extra-time win against Liverpool in their FA Cup quarter-final before the international break.

That win gives United a pep in their step, as does the impending return of centre-back Lisandro Martinez after two months out with a knee injury.

“Yes, there is a chance (Martinez is involved on Saturday),” Ten Hag said.

“We missed him every game because he brings a composure in the team, a calmness in the team.

“And at the same time, a winning attitude and he can express this very clearly, he can transfer this into the team and that contributes a lot to our levels.”

Questions remain over the fitness of Harry Maguire, Casemiro and Jonny Evans, among others, while Amad Diallo joins United’s long-term absentees on the sidelines for the weekend.

Luke Shaw is among those and faces a race against time to make England’s Euro 2024 squad, but Ten Hag expects him back in a United shirt before the end of the campaign.

“Yes, I expect him back before the end of the season,” Ten Hag said. “That is the plan and he’s still on schedule on this. He will return to our team.”

Vincent Kompany stressed Burnley have “total belief” after his relegation-threatened side beat 10-man Brentford 2-1 at Turf Moor for their first win in 11 Premier League games.

The Clarets took the lead through a 10th-minute Jacob Bruun Larsen penalty awarded for a foul on Vitinho by Sergio Reguilon, who received a straight red card.

David Datro Fofana, having been guilty of a remarkable miss late in the first half, then doubled the advantage with a finish just past the hour mark.

A nervy finale for the hosts saw Kristoffer Ajer score a header for Brentford and a stoppage-time Shandon Baptiste effort ruled out due to Ivan Toney fouling goalkeeper Arijanet Muric.

However, Burnley held out for a first victory of 2024 – and only their fourth in the league this term – to leave an eight-point gap between them and safety with nine games left to play.

Boss Kompany said in his post-match press conference: “It feels great and I think we have to celebrate.

“It’s a day where we won, we got the three points and I think the way we’ll handle this is we’ll really enjoy this moment today and then tomorrow we go back to work.

“The team started hard from the beginning, we were on the front foot, we created situations that forced mistakes from the opponent, we won duels, we were aggressive and then after that I think for large spells we did exactly what we have to do against 10 men. We scored the second goal, probably there’s a couple of goals I still don’t know how we missed it, but OK.

“And then after that I think it’s just like a team when you’ve not been winning, sometimes it becomes a little bit more difficult at the end of games to keep the result, but we did exactly what we had to do in terms of showing grit at times.

“There’s never been a lack of belief. For us, we have total belief, full belief.”

When asked how he would celebrate, the former Manchester City captain said: “It will have to be spontaneous, I didn’t really plan for it just yet. But I’ve celebrated a few times in my life, so I’m sure I’ll get the hang of it again!

“To bring up that energy through the week (after last week being held 2-2 at West Ham due to a stoppage-time Danny Ings equaliser), to start the game like we did, I think then at the end you earn the right to celebrate when you win.”

Brentford boss Thomas Frank, whose side are winless in six and 15th in the table, four points above the drop zone, had no complaints about the officials’ decisions to give the penalty, send off Reguilon, or disallow the stoppage-time effort.

However, he was unhappy no spot-kick was given to the Bees after Fofana tangled with Mathias Jorgensen early in the second half, an incident he described as a “murder in the box.”

Frank said: “There’s a clear penalty, how the referee (Darren Bond) and the VAR cannot see that, it’s incredible.

“That would have changed the game. It is a 100 per cent clear penalty, especially when they speak about you can’t hold, grab players. That was a murder in the box.”

Kompany viewed the situation differently, saying: “No chance (it should have been a penalty) – and with the way it’s gone this year, I’m even more convinced in saying it.”

Frank said he was “very, very proud” of his players, adding: “What an effort, what a mentality, basically playing the whole match with 10 players – we were very close to getting a point.”

Burnley registered their first win in 11 Premier League games as Vincent Kompany’s relegation-threatened side defeated 10-man Brentford 2-1 at Turf Moor.

The Clarets took the lead through a 10th-minute Jacob Bruun Larsen penalty given after a foul on Vitinho by Sergio Reguilon, who received a straight red card.

David Datro Fofana, having been guilty of a remarkable miss late in the first half, then doubled the advantage with a finish just past the hour mark.

Kristoffer Ajer pulled a goal back for Brentford with eight minutes of normal time to go but Burnley were able to see out what was their first victory of 2024, and only their fourth in the league this season.

Boss Kompany had emphasised pre-match that he had not given up hope of avoiding relegation and after ending their winless run, the gap between second-bottom Burnley and safety stands at eight points with nine games left to play.

Fifteenth-placed Brentford, meanwhile, are four points above the drop zone as their own sequence without victory extended to a sixth match.

Kompany made one change from last weekend’s 2-2 draw at West Ham, opting to drop goalkeeper James Trafford – previously an ever-present in the league this season – and bring Arijanet Muric into the team for his Premier League debut.

One of those coming into Brentford’s starting line-up as boss Thomas Frank made two adjustments from the 2-1 loss at Arsenal was the fit-again Reguilon, whose return proved extremely short-lived.

An early Burnley attack saw Josh Cullen swing the ball into the box, where Vitinho went to ground following contact from behind from the on-loan Tottenham defender.

VAR intervened and after referee Darren Bond had watched the incident back pitchside, a penalty was awarded, Reguilon was given his marching orders and Bruun Larsen coolly sent the spot-kick past Mark Flekken.

Ivan Toney headed over as Brentford looked to hit back, and Burnley then breathed a sigh of relief when Dara O’Shea misjudged an attempted pass back to Muric and the goalkeeper slid to clear the ball off the line with his boot, then saved Toney’s follow-up effort.

At the other end Fofana somehow missed when looking certain to score from close range having been teed up by Lorenz Assignon’s cutback.

Muric then produced a fine save to deny Yoane Wissa, before Fofana, having lurked behind Flekken as he prepared to take a kick, emerged to nick the ball, only to be thwarted by the Dutchman as he tried to take it past him.

After Charlie Taylor put a shot over the Brentford bar early in the second half, Fofana was then able to redeem himself in the 62nd minute as he was played in by Wilson Odobert and slotted past Flekken.

Burnley’s push for more included Zeki Amdouni’s shot being held by Flekken, before their lead was halved by Ajer heading in a cross from Shandon Baptiste.

The Clarets had been 2-0 up against West Ham only to be held 2-2 and fans may have been fearing a repeat as Muric kept out a Keane Lewis-Potter header.

A lengthy period of stoppage time – in which replacement Amdouni was substituted himself – then saw the ball in the Burnley net but no goal given with Toney being penalised for a challenge on Muric, before the final whistle confirmed three points for the hosts.

Burnley kept their faint Premier League survival hopes alive with a 2-1 victory over Brentford at Turf Moor.

Brentford had to play most of the match with 10 men after Sergio Reguilon was sent off with just nine minutes on the clock for a push on Vitinho inside the penalty area.

Following the fastest red card of the Premier League season, Burnley took the lead from the resulting spot-kick as Jacob Bruun Larsen converted from 12 yards.

Burnley looked to have sealed their first win in 2024 and first since a 2-0 victory over Fulham in December when David Datro Fofana slotted past Mark Flekken from inside the box to make it 2-0 but they were made to sweat for the points when Kristoffer Ajer pulled a goal back in the 83rd minute with a smart header.

Brentford thought they had snatched an equaliser at the death when Shandon Baptiste’s cross ended up in the net but referee Darren Bond blew for a foul on keeper Arijanet Muric as Vincent Kompany’s side hung on to move within eight points of safety.

In another crucial game in the relegation battle, Luke Berry scored a late equaliser to earn Luton a 1-1 draw with fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest.

Forest hit the front in the 34th minute after Morgan Gibbs-White floated a cross to the onrushing Chris Wood who volleyed home from close range.

Luton looked to have equalised before the break when Teden Mengi bundled home but referee Darren England cut celebrations short after the ball hit the defender’s arm in the process.

Forest had chances to put the game to bed and came close to a second when Anthony Elanga had an effort cleared off the line.

The Hatters struck in the 89th minute to secure a valuable point when Berry poked home from Reece Burke’s nod down inside the box to prevent Forest pulling away from the bottom three and keep the gap at three points.

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