While the Premier League title race unfolds, there is another tussle playing out at the bottom.
And this weekend, six of the teams at the wrong end of the table fight it out against each other.
On Saturday, Luton Town will hope to propel themselves out of the relegation zone by overcoming Brentford at Kenilworth Road, though the 15th-placed Bees will know that another win could all but end their worries of dropping down to the Championship.
At the same time, the two bottom clubs go head-to-head at Bramall Lane, with Sheffield United hosting Burnley. Both the Blades and the Clarets look likely to go down, though if either are to survive, then taking three points from this one is a must.
Sunday’s early game is a huge one at Goodison Park, as Everton and Nottingham Forest – both impacted by points deductions for breaches of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – face off. The Toffees are 16th, a point better off than the Tricky Trees, but Sean Dyche’s team are on a dismal run of just one win in 15 league matches.
Crystal Palace are perhaps not out of the woods just yet, though after their stunning win at Anfield last time out, the Eagles will hope to carry on the momentum when they face West Ham.
And using Opta data, we can assess the likelihood of the Premier League relegation scrap, as well as the underlying metrics behind each of these teams.
Let’s work from the top down.
Palace, after that shock 1-0 win over Liverpool, are now not considered to be relegation candidates by Opta’s predictive model, which gives them a 46.5 per cent chance of staying right where they are in 14th.
The Eagles are six points clear of Everton in 17th, and while not mathematically safe, Oliver Glasner’s team are certainly within touching distance.
It is worth noting, though, that according to the Opta power rankings, Palace have the most difficult run-in of all these seven teams, with the average rating of their remaining opponents coming in at 87.9. Like the Toffees and Sheffield United, Palace have six matches left to play, though they do not play any of the teams below them in that run.
Next come Brentford. The Bees have five games remaining but, with 33 points, are likely just a win away from tying up their safety, and they will be hoping that comes against Luton (as well Everton and Forest fans).
According to Opta’s model, Brentford have the second-easiest fixture list of any team in the league, with their average opponent rating of 85.1 higher only than Newcastle United’s (84.1).
The Bees do, though, face a trip to Everton after they head to Luton, so should the worst occur and they lose those matches, then Thomas Frank’s team could find themselves firmly back in danger. As it stands, Brentford’s chances of going down are a meagre 0.3 per cent.
Brentford are the second-worst expected goals underperformers in the competition this season, having scored six fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they have created, suggesting that with better finishing, and a bit more luck, they would likely be clear of danger already.
And if that can be said for Brentford, then it can be emphatically repeated for 16th-placed Everton.
Even factoring in the eight points that have been taken off them this term, Everton – who were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea on Monday – could have been out of danger had they simply come close to matching their xG. They are by far the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to that metric – Dyche’s side have scored 32 goals (which ranks 19th in the league) from an xG of 48, a whopping underperformance of 16.
Sunday’s clash with Forest kick-starts a huge week of home games for the Toffees, with a Merseyside derby against Liverpool following on April 24, before Brentford then visit Goodison Park.
With Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United among their final four fixtures, Everton should still have some confidence – they have taken seven points off those sides already this term, and a repeat of that could be enough, though a final-day away outing at Arsenal is ominous, given the Toffees have shipped nine goals in their last two visits to Emirates Stadium. Opta predicts they will stay up, but Everton do have an 8.9 per cent chance of slipping out of the top tier for the first time in over 70 years.
Below them, Forest will no doubt have been buoyed by Everton’s sorry performance at Stamford Bridge. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team do have a rather sizeable 29.9 per cent chance of going down, so a victory at Goodison Park could be vital.
Especially considering Forest’s next fixture comes against Manchester City, albeit it is at home, where they also face Chelsea in between away clashes with Sheffield United and Burnley.
Perhaps worrying for Forest, however, is that in their three matches against Everton, the Blades and Burnley this term, they have taken only four points. Interestingly, while Forest have shipped 58 goals – a figure which betters only the bottom three, they have been unfortunate to concede so many based on their expected goals against (xGA), which is actually the sixth best in the league at 47.4.
Then we have Luton. The Hatters have been one of the stories of the season, and despite their small budget have a brilliant chance of survival.
That being said, Opta’s predictive model does anticipate they will go down, with Rob Edwards’ side having a 54.3 per cent chance of finishing where they are in 18th, with their chances of finishing in 17th being 29.6 per cent.
Victory over Brentford, who beat them 3-1 earlier in the campaign, would see Luton move out of the bottom three, though, and with five games left, they do have what is considered a relatively easy run-in when it comes to the average rating of those teams they are going up against, at 85.4.
That being said, Luton’s defensive record this season is awful. The Hatters have shipped 70 goals from an xGA of 69.7. They will need to tighten up if they are to complete the great escape.
What about the bottom two?
Well, they are perhaps down and out. After visiting South Yorkshire on Saturday, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team have to go to Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium either side of hosting Newcastle, and Opta’s predictive model suggests they will go down – they have just a 1.6 per cent chance of survival.
There is an even smaller chance of the Blades, who are 20th, staying up, at just 0.2 per cent.
Chris Wilder’s team are the team with the fewest goals scored in the top flight, at 30, while they have conceded 84 – the worst in the division, and while victory over the Clarets would provide a morale-boost, the Blades seemed destined for the Championship.
Guardiola not concerned despite Manchester City's poor defensive record
Pep Guardiola is not worried about Manchester City's defending despite the reigning champions failing to keep a clean sheet in their last six Premier League matches.
City went 1-0 down against Fulham before fighting back to win 3-2 on Saturday. Their opponents also amassed an expected goals (xG) total of 2.4 compared to City's 1.55.
It follows a trend of unusually sloppy defensive displays from the champions, who have conceded eight goals in their last six league matches. They also had to come from behind against Brentford in September.
Guardiola, however, is not overly worried.
"Sometimes I give credit. The first goal – why don't we give credit to them rather than [be critical] defensively? There are actions we can defend better but step by step we will improve," he said, via the Guardian.
"I would say except [Yoane] Wissa against Brentford, in the other ones we were playing good. It's not nice to come back from 0-1 but we created chances today to go 1-0 and 2-0."
City allowed Fulham five big chances compared to their one, with the London side taking 11 shots, nine of those from inside the box.
Comparatively, City had 20 shots with only half of those coming from inside the box. However, two of the visitors’ goals came from outside the area with Jeremy Doku and Mateo Kovacic both firing in from distance.
"I'm very happy he scored two goals, he's not a guy to score [usually] those goals," Guardiola said of Kovacic, who is one of the midfielders the City boss expects to fill in for the injured Rodri this season.
“We started really well with two chances in two minutes and they switched immediately to five at the back. When they do that, we have one man free on the 18-yard box and that is Kovacic.
"The two goals were because they couldn't defend that. We have to exploit that more against teams that don’t play five at the back – now opponents know that they can’t leave him [Kovacic] alone, otherwise he will score a goal."
St. Benedict’s College defeats Fatima College 3-1 in SSFL top-of-the-table clash
St. Benedict’s College secured a 3-1 win over Fatima College in a top-of-the-table clash in Secondary Schools Football League (SSFL) Premiership action at the Mahaica Sporting Complex.
Goals from Captain Derrel Garcia in the 42nd and 59th minutes and a third from Ethan Trotman in the 80th secured the win and allowed them to move to 19 points from seven matches, three ahead of Fatima who have a game in hand.
Micaiah Leach gave Fatima the lead in the 30th minute.
Elsewhere, Arima North Secondary defeated San Juan North 2-1 at Bourg Mulatrasse. Micha’el John gave Arima the lead in the 42nd minute before Lindell Sween got the equalizer for San Juan North just a minute later.
Jahmarley Caleb got the winner for Arima North ten minutes from full time. The win moved Arima North up to fourth in the table with 14 points from eight games while San Juan remain in ninth with nine points from their eight outings.
A Kristian James 66th minute goal gave St. Mary’s College a 1-0 win over East Mucurapo Secondary at Mucurapo Road.
Presentation College got the biggest win of the day, a 5-0 victory over Speyside High at Mannie Ramjohn Stadium.
Thanks to goals from Vaughn Clement, Cody Cooper, Isaiah Jacob, Caleb Boyce and Duhrell Young, Presentation are now third in the table with 16 points from seven games. Speyside have four points from just five games to lie second from bottom at 15th.
Hosts Signal Hill Secondary suffered a 1-2 defeat at the hands of Queen’s Royal College. Kyle James got the goal for Signal Hill while the QRC goals came from Teshaun Franklin and an own goal from Raevion Marshall.
QRC are fifth in the standings with 13 points from eight games while Signal Hill are 11th with eight points from seven games.
In the day’s other games, St. Anthony College beat Miracle Ministries Pentecostal High School 3-1 at Westmoorings while a 12th minute Sumba Cudjoe strike gave St. Augustine Secondary a 1-0 win over Trinity College East at Trincity.
Calabar edge STATHS 1-0 to assume pole position in Zone D of Manning Cup; reigning champions Clarendon College among winners in dCup
Calabar High School regained pole position in Zone D of the Inter-secondary Schools Sports Association (ISSA)/Digicel Manning Cup following a 1-0 win over St Andrew Technical (STATHS) in a top-of-the-table clash at their Red Hills Road base on Saturday.
Jaheim Rankine got the all-important strike in the 34th minute to extend their unbeaten run across five matches and push Calabar up to 16 points, same as STATHS, who were relegated to second with a slightly inferior goal difference. Haile Selassie (nine points), Camperdown (seven points), Vauxhall (six points) and Kingston Technical (zero point) complete the standings.
Winning coach Andrew Price welcomed the character shown by his team on this occasion to overturn their first leg loss, as players occupied unfamiliar position.
“The players are resilient; we played today without two of frontline central defenders so we had to patch up the team today and people played in positions that they don’t normally play in. But we have a system that we have been playing for the entire season and once people fit into the system, then the team will play well and they showed some depth and character today to get the three points against a very good STATHS team,” Price said.
“I think we needed to be a bit more clinical in front of goal, but our strength is our defensive structure; we have only conceded two goals so far in the entire Manning Cup, which shows that we are very sound defensively, and we want to keep it that way. We are developing a football culture here at the school and we are going to continue to work diligently to ensure that we get some success along the line,” he added.
STATHS started more purposefully and created a few half chances in the early exchanges as the teams battled heavy underfoot conditions due to afternoon showers.
The Bumper Hall-based team should have broken the deadlock approaching the 20th minute mark but Ajetai Marshall muffed his effort from close range.
Calabar got into their rhythm and went close to finding the lead at the half-hour mark, but Rankin’s left-footed shot from a distance was parried by Jaheem Williams in goal for STATHS.
It is often said if you fail to succeed try again, and Rankine did just that to put Calabar in front as he released an even more delightful strike from about 30 yards out that had Williams beaten all ends up.
Calabar went close to doubling their advantage in 41st, but Williams got down well to his right on this occasion to steer Jayden Perry’s left-footed shot from outside the 18-yard box wide.
With the score unchanged at the break, STATHS made a push for the equaliser but failed to create any meaningful chances, and frustration inevitably set in, resulting in Alexavier Gooden being sent off for a second yellow in the 54th.
The numerical advantage created a few openings for Calabar, the best of which came in the 61st Rankine, who rounded the goalkeeper but selfishly went for shot from a tight angle instead of floating a cross in for Perry.
As the game approached its end, substitute Christiano Brown thought he stole a point for STATHS when she slid one through the goalkeeper’s legs, but the goal was belatedly flagged for an offside.
That left Head coach Phillip Williams disgusted as he called out the officiating as the worst part of the encounter.
“It is unfortunate that ISSA has invested so much and the schools have invested so much and the poor officiating just takes away from the game. I think that was the worst thing today; both teams played some decent football but the officiating needs to be better.
“I think what we didn’t do today was score, we have a style of football that we play and we played that today even when we went down a man but referees need to be better in Jamaica, they are very poor,” a disappointed Williams said.
Saturday’s Manning Cup Results
Calabar 1, STATHS 0
Dunoon Park 0, Eltham 0
Ardenne High 0, Hydel High 8
Ascot High 0, Jamaica College 5
Excelsior High 15, Pembroke Hall 0
Holy Trinity 0, St George’s College 5
Camperdown 0, Vauxhall 0
Saturday’s daCosta Cup Results
Munro 0, Maggotty 0
Manchester 1, Belair 0
Glenmuir 4, Old Harbour 0
Ocho Rios 8, Ferncourt 1
Anchovy 1, Green Island 2
McGrath 0, Dinthill 0
Maldon High 4, St James 1
Irwin High 1, Cornwall College 4
Green Pond 5, Herbert Morrison 2
Grange Hill 0, Godfrey Stewart 1
Mannings 6, Little London 0
Muschett 0, Cedric Titus 13
Spot Valley 0, William Knibb 0
Happy Grove 2, Morant Bay 0
Tacius Golding 0, Charlemont 3
Cross Keys 1, DeCarteret College 5
Newell 0, Lacovia 1
B.B Coke 1, STETHS 3
Claude McKay 0, Clarendon College 7
Central 2, Edwin Allen 1
Knockalva 0, Frome Tech 8
Cambridge 1, Rusea’s High 3
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