It has been another off-season of change in Italy, but Serie A returns this week and another intriguing campaign awaits.
Inter were champions last term, ending Juventus' run of nine straight Scudetti, but they have not been able to keep their title-winning side together.
Romelu Lukaku is gone, as is coach Antonio Conte, while Massimiliano Allegri has returned to Juve to tee up another tilt.
So, what does that all mean for the coming season? Stats Perform attempts to find out.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Read on to see who can realistically compete with Inter and who should be looking over their shoulders...
THREE FIGHTING FOR TITLE
Inter might have lost some key men, but the model is backing a team that finished second and then first to lead the way again.
The Nerazzurri are given the best chance of taking the title (45.1 per cent), while they certainly should make the top four even without Lukaku and Conte, rated as a 94.2 per cent likelihood.
Unsurprisingly, Juve are the closest challengers to Inter's crown, with a 21.5 per cent shot.
It is not set to be a two-horse race, though, as Atalanta are the third and final team to be given a substantial chance at 19.6 per cent.
In fact, Atalanta's lowest probable finish of ninth is higher than Juve's 10th, with another exciting season expected for La Dea.
TOP FOUR SETTLED?
There is strength in depth in Serie A this season, but the model has identified a clear frontrunner for the fourth Champions League place.
Napoli, with a 9.4 per cent title chance, have a 68.6 per cent likelihood of making the top four, putting them well clear of the rest despite finishing fifth in 2020-21.
That means disappointment for big names like Milan, Lazio and Jose Mourinho's Roma.
Milan do have a 44.0 per cent shot at Champions League qualification, but that is a modest opportunity given they were second last term and led the league for half the season. A Scudetto triumph is rated at 3.6 per cent.
Lazio, under Maurizio Sarri, have a 14.9 per cent hope of a top-four place, while Mourinho clearly has work to do as rivals Roma are only given an 8.2 per cent likelihood.
Besides those sides, only Sassuolo – 1.1 per cent for the Champions League, 2.6 for the Europa League and 8.2 per cent for the Europa Conference League – are realistically also in the European picture.
STRAIGHT BACK DOWN AGAIN
The model does not make for pretty reading for the three promoted sides, who are all expected to spend only a single season in the top flight before returning to Serie B.
For Salernitana and Venezia, a particularly brutal campaign could be in store. They are highly likely to go down, rated at 95.9 per cent and 94.8 per cent respectively.
Empoli are given a slightly improved chance but are still expected to be relegated, at 79.3 per cent.
Torino's awful season, finishing 17th in 2020-21, should not be repeated, with merely a 4.3 per cent likelihood of demotion.
That still makes them sixth favourites for the drop, also behind Spezia (6.0 per cent) and Hellas Verona (5.4 per cent).
Kylian Mbappe's future continues to dominate headlines.
The Paris Saint-Germain forward is out of contract at the end of 2021-22 and no closer to re-signing in the French capital.
Real Madrid are reportedly holding onto hope of securing his services before the end of the transfer window.
TOP STORY – MADRID STILL DREAMING OF MBAPPE
Real Madrid have not given up on signing Paris Saint-Germain's Kylian Mbappe, according to the front page of Thursday's Diario AS.
Mbappe is into the final year of his PSG contract and while he has been tipped to make the move to Madrid, he has reportedly told friends he will remain in Paris.
However, LaLiga powerhouses Madrid – also linked with Borussia Dortmund forward Erling Haaland – believe it is a strategy to secure a friendly exit from PSG.
ROUND-UP
- Manchester United are interested in Monaco defensive midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni, say reporters Sacha Tavolieri and Jonathan Shrager. United have also been linked with Rennes sensation Eduardo Camavinga, who is reportedly wanted by PSG and Madrid.
- RB Leipzig star Marcel Sabitzer is interested in a move to Bundesliga rivals Bayern Munich, claims Bild.
- Goal and widespread reports say Arsenal are close to signing Martin Odegaard from Madrid. Odegaard spent six months on loan at Arsenal last season.
- Duvan Zapata is Inter's priority signing, according to Calciomercato. Despite signing Edin Dzeko and Denzel Dumfries after Romelu Lukaku's, the Serie A champions are eyeing the Atlanta forward. Borussia Monchengladbach's Marcus Thuram, Joaquin Correa of Lazio, Torino forward Andrea Belotti and Wolfsburg's Wout Weghorst are other options.
- Italian journalist Sara Meini reports Manchester City are stepping up their pursuit of Fiorentina forward Dusan Vlahovic amid their struggle to prise Harry Kane from Tottenham. Atletico Madrid and Spurs have also been linked with Vlahovic.
- Juventus are nearing a deal to re-sign Miralem Pjanic from Barcelona, according to Mundo Deportivo. Juve, according to Di Marzio, are also listening to offers for Weston McKennie.
Is Kylian Mbappe's future nearing a resolution?
Mbappe is out of contract at the end of the season and the Paris Saint-Germain forward is no closer to extending his contract in the
French capital.
Real Madrid are reportedly poised to pounce.
TOP STORY – MADRID NEARING MBAPPE DEAL?
Real Madrid are closing in on Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappe, according to the front page of Monday's Marca.
Mbappe is in the final year of his PSG contract and he has reportedly made it clear he has no intention of re-signing in Paris.
Long touted to join Madrid, the LaLiga giants' pursuit of Mbappe is set to enter a decisive phase this week.
The Transfer Window podcast, however, claims Liverpool will attempt to sign Mbappe on a free transfer at the end of the 2021-22 season.
ROUND-UP
- Sport reports Barcelona are monitoring Arsenal pair Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang as they look to rebuild following Lionel Messi's departure to PSG.
- Inter are eyeing Napoli captain Lorenzo Insigne but want a discount on the Italy star, claims Sky Sport Italia. Napoli value Insigne at around €25-30million with one year remaining on his contract. Lazio's Joaquin Correa, Atalanta forward Duvan Zapata and Fiorentina sensation Dusan Vlahovic have also been linked to Inter.
- Sport Italia says Tottenham are in talks with Fiorentina for centre-back Nikola Milenkovic, who has been linked with West Ham. Spurs are also keen on Fiorentina star Vlahovic, according to Sport Italia.
- According to Cadena SER, Antoine Griezmann is open to returning to Atletico Madrid this off-season. Griezmann swapped Atletico for Barca in 2019.
- Luka Jovic has decided he wants to join Inter on loan, per Nerazzurri Siamo Noi. The Madrid outcast has also been linked with Eintracht Frankfurt, Sampdoria and Genoa.
- Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City are tracking Metz's 18-year-old midfielder Pape Matar Sarr, claims the Daily Mail.
England international Kieran Trippier has expressed his desire to return from Spain this off-season.
The Atletico Madrid full-back has spent two seasons in Spain, helping Diego Simeone's side win LaLiga in 2020-21.
A former Burnley and Tottenham defender, Trippier has been pursued by Manchester United who are yet to agree a fee with Atletico.
TOP STORY – ARSENAL ENTER TRIPPIER RACE
Arsenal have joined United in targeting Kieran Trippier, reports The Sun.
The Gunners see Trippier as Hector Bellerin's replacement, with the Spaniard having been linked with Inter as he aims to make a move away from north Lonndon.
Atletico are demanding €40million (£34million) for 30-year-old Trippier.
ROUND-UP
- The Sunday Mirror are reporting that Harry Kane will need to force through his transfer from Tottenham to Manchester City, after Spurs chairman Daniel Levy's claim the England captain is not for sale. City are reportedly prepared to wait and start the new season without a recognised striker.
- Inter are closing in on a deal for Atalanta's Colombian forward Duvan Zapata, with an offer of €30m on the table, reports Cesar Luis Merlo. Zapata is seen as a replacement for Romelu Lukaku, with the Belgium striker set to exit for Chelsea.
- Atalanta are ramping up their move to sign Chelsea forward Tammy Abraham as part of the three-club shuffle. Fabrizio Romano claims the Atalanta board will meet Chelsea in the next 48 hours, with a price tag of around €40m to be discussed.
- Paris Saint-Germain have held advanced talks with the agent of Napoli defender Kalidou Koulibaly about a move, reports Foot Mercato.
- Burnley are struggling to complete a move to sign RB Leipzig's Ademola Lookman on loan, according to The Sun.
Everyone wants Lionel Messi but few have the resources to sign him.
Paris Saint-Germain appear to be strong favourites to land the Argentina international.
A deal could happen in the coming days.
TOP STORY - PSG CLOSE IN ON MESSI
PSG believe they are close to a deal to land Lionel Messi.
ESPN reports PSG have been in contact with Messi's father and agent Jorge "for some time" and are set to offer a three-year contract.
Sky Sport Italia says the deal is more likely to be for two years with an option to extend it to a third.
The ESPN report said adding Messi would make it more likely Kylian Mbappe would stay with the club rather than leave when he is out of contract next year, though it would end PSG's pursuit of Paul Pogba, partly due to FFP concerns.
ROUND-UP
- Chelsea are set to pay about £95million for Romelu Lukaku as Inter prefer a cash-only deal, the Daily Mail reports. Calciomercato says the Blues offered Davide Zappacosta and Marcos Alonso in a swap deal but the Nerazzurri were not interested.
- Inter are looking within Serie A to replace their outgoing striker, Sky Italia says, with Atalanta's Duvan Zapata and Roma's Edin Dzeko their preferred options.
- Barcelona are trying to come to an agreement with Lille on midfielder Renato Sanches, Le10 Sport reports.
- Rafa Mir is set for a move from Wolves to Atletico Madrid, with Fabrizio Romano reporting personal terms have been agreed.
- West Ham have offered €14m (£12m) to Marseille for Duje Caleta-Car, L'Equipe reports, saying the Ligue 1 side are holding out for €20m (£17m).
Tottenham have completed the signing of defender Cristian Romero for a reported fee of £47million.
The Argentina international has put pen to paper on a reported five-year contract with the north London club.
The 23-year-old becomes Tottenham's third signing under Nuno Espirito Santo following the arrival of winger Bryan Gil from Sevilla and the loan acquisition of Atalanta goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini, whom Romero played alongside in 2020-21.
Romero is also the second-most expensive transfer in Spurs' history after Tanguy Ndombele's £53.8m switch from Lyon in 2019.
After beginning his career with spells at Belgrano and Genoa, the centre-half failed to make a competitive appearance during his two-year stint with Juventus, spending the entire time out on loan.
Atalanta signed him on loan with a purchase option in September 2020 and Romero went on to play 42 times in all competitions last season as the Bergamo club recorded a third-place finish in Serie A and reached the Coppa Italia final.
Atalanta triggered their purchase option on Romero before then selling him on to Spurs.
Romero's performances led to his senior international debut against Chile prior to this year's Copa America, in which he made three appearances and started the final as Argentina beat Brazil to end their 28-year wait for a major trophy.
His arrival provides a much-needed boost to the Tottenham back line, following the departures of Toby Alderweireld and Juan Foyth earlier in the window.
Romero will compete with Davinson Sanchez, Joe Rodon and Eric Dier for a place in the heart of the defence, and could make his debut when Spurs launch their Premier League campaign against reigning champions Manchester City on August 15.
Tottenham have completed the signing of defender Cristian Romero for a reported fee of £47million.
The Argentina international has put pen to paper on a reported five-year contract with the north London club.
The 23-year-old becomes Tottenham's third signing under Nuno Espirito Santo following the arrival of winger Bryan Gil from Sevilla and the loan acquisition of Atalanta goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini, whom Romero played alongside in 2020-21.
Romero is also the second-most expensive transfer in Spurs' history after Tanguy Ndombele's £53.8m switch from Lyon in 2019.
After beginning his career with spells at Belgrano and Genoa, the centre-half failed to make a competitive appearance during his two-year stint with Juventus, spending the entire time out on loan.
Atalanta signed him on loan with a purchase option in September 2020 and Romero went on to play 42 times in all competitions last season as the Bergamo club recorded a third-place finish in Serie A and reached the Coppa Italia final.
Atalanta triggered their purchase option on Romero before then selling him on to Spurs.
Romero's performances led to his senior international debut against Chile prior to this year's Copa America, in which he made three appearances and started the final as Argentina beat Brazil to end their 28-year wait for a major trophy.
His arrival provides a much-needed boost to the Tottenham back line, following the departures of Toby Alderweireld and Juan Foyth earlier in the window.
Romero will compete with Davinson Sanchez, Joe Rodon and Eric Dier for a place in the heart of the defence, and could make his debut when Spurs launch their Premier League campaign against reigning champions Manchester City on August 15.
For the first time in his career, Lionel Messi is looking for a new club.
Barcelona announced on Thursday contract talks had been unsuccessful due to the "economic and structural obstacles" of LaLiga's salary restrictions.
Messi's next step is far from obvious, but what if we imagine money is no object and he could play for anyone he chooses? What if the thrill of the game were more important to him than winning a fifth Champions League? What if he threw caution to the wind and went somewhere just for fun?
We've has imagined such a scenario, and these are the teams we'd love to see him play for...
AJAX
The link between Ajax and Barca goes beyond the basics of football: it's a shared ideology, a philosophical connection, a spiritual understanding.
From Johan Cruyff to Ronald Koeman, plenty of players and coaches have shared the love of both clubs, but Messi moving to Amsterdam would turn the romance up to 11.
Messi as the focal point of an Ajax side – who are beautiful to watch as it is – is a wonderful idea. He will certainly know all about the club from former player and close friend Luis Suarez.
Given the players Barca have signed from Ajax in the past – Frenkie de Jong the latest – it would be nice to see a player going in the opposite direction.
ATALANTA
Gian Piero Gasperini's side have captured the hearts of the football world in recent seasons, threatening title challenges in Serie A and coming close to reaching the Champions League semi-finals in 2019-20.
They have done all this on a modest budget, playing vibrant, attacking football, and all during a global pandemic that struck Bergamo and the Lombardy region particularly hard.
The way Argentine Alejandro Gomez pulled the strings for Atalanta in the past was a joy to watch, but imagine if compatriot Messi were in that role. Imagine him again facing Cristiano Ronaldo and Juventus. Imagine Marten de Roon's Twitter feed.
Glorious, isn't it?
COLOGNE
The GOAT and the Billy Goats – what could be better?
Cologne have gone through some tricky times but will hope to be on the up again in the Bundesliga after surviving a relegation play-off last term.
They might not have won the title since 1978, but they are among Germany's most esteemed clubs, with an ardent fan base and a beautiful home city. If Messi could lead them to challenge the might of Bayern Munich, it would be an unforgettable story.
If not... well, they have a goat as a mascot, for goodness' sake. It's too perfect.
LEEDS UNITED
It might be too early for Messi to return to Newell's Old Boys, but what if he joined up with Rosario's other most famous footballing export in Yorkshire?
Leeds United returned to the Premier League with a bang last season, continuing their progress under the stewardship of Marcelo Bielsa and his big blue bucket.
The chance to truly awaken a sleeping giant of the English game and take Leeds to the next level while playing for the man who inspired Pep Guardiola sounds like an opportunity that's too good to miss.
Plus, if he wanted to visit Pep, Manchester is less than an hour away by train.
Jack Grealish's mooted move to Manchester City appears set to imminently go through.
City manager Pep Guardiola has long admired the 25-year-old England midfielder.
English champions City have also been linked with Harry Kane as they chase an elusive Champions League crown.
TOP STORY - GREALISH BOOKED IN FOR MAN CITY MEDICAL
Aston Villa's Grealish is on the cusp of completing his £100million transfer to join Manchester City, according to the Birmingham Mail.
The report claims Grealish was due to arrive in Manchester on Wednesday, with a medical booked in.
Grealish returned from a holiday after Euro 2020 this week and was spotted at Villa training on Wednesday but has since reportedly headed north.
ROUND-UP
- Sky Sports claims Aston Villa are lining up a move for Norwich City midfielder Todd Cantwell as they prepare for Grealish to depart.
- Tottenham are plotting moves for PSV's Noni Madueke and Denmark's Euro 2020 star Mikkel Damsgaard according to the Evening Standard, as they plan their windfall from Harry Kane's potential sale to Manchester City.
- Fresh from Danny Ings leaving for Villa, Southampton are closing in on Blackburn forward Adam Armstrong, reports Football League World.
- The Sun claims Norwich City are looking to launch a £15m bid for Blackburn's Armstrong too. Irish prospect Adam Idah could be included in a player-plus-cash deal.
- Atalanta are set to hold talks with Chelsea for a move for striker Tammy Abraham according to Gianluca Di Marzio.
European champions Chelsea have been in the market for a new striker this off-season.
The Blues chased Erling Haaland without success and have now set their sights on Romelu Lukaku.
Lukaku was on Chelsea's books from 2011 and 2014 but has since become one of the world's best forwards.
TOP STORY - CHELSEA TO TABLE NEW BUMPER LUKAKU BID
Chelsea are preparing to table a new bid of between £100million and £110m (€120-130m) bid for Inter forward Lukaku claims Fabrizio Romano.
The Blues had an initial £85m (€100m) offer, including Marcos Alonso, for the Belgian striker rejected by Inter.
The Sun claim Lukaku is keen on a return to Chelsea, citing "unfinished business" from his previous stint in London.
ROUND-UP
- Paris Saint-Germain are not guaranteed to retain Real Madrid target Kylian Mbappe , reports AS. The France superstar has already informed PSG that he will not extend his current contract, due to expire in 2022, and president Nasser Al-Khelaifi is set to take over talks.
- Aymeric Laporte has told Manchester City he wants to leave to return to Spain this off-season, reports 90min. Barcelona and Real Madrid are both interested in the Spain international, who is not first choice at City.
- Arsenal have proposed a player-plus-cash deal, believed to be worth £60m, for Leicester City's James Maddison according to Football.London, but negotiations are "very slow".
- Tottenham will complete a £47m (€55m) deal for Atalanta defender Cristian Romero imminently according to Romano. Atalanta will fill the void by signing Merih Demiral from Juventus.
Chelsea are in the market for a striker and are seemingly keen on one of their former players.
Romelu Lukaku helped Inter to the Serie A title last term and is seemingly in Chelsea's sights.
The Belgium international scored four goals at Euro 2020 after netting 24 times in Serie A.
TOP STORY - CHELSEA REBUFFED IN LUKAKU BID
Chelsea have had their initial bid worth approximately £86 million (€100m) for Lukaku rejected by Inter, reports The Sun.
The Blues made their transfer offer with defender Marcos Alonso also involved, but the Italian champions are demanding a £100m (€117m) fee.
Lukaku is said to be Chelsea's number one target after failing in their bid to lure Erling Haaland away from Borussia Dortmund.
ROUND-UP
- Real Madrid are still expecting Kylian Mbappe to let his Paris Saint-Germain contract expire at the end of the 2021-22 season and join Los Blancos for free, according to AS.
- The Daily Star reports Manchester City and Tottenham are still unable to reach agreement in negotiations over Harry Kane, with £40m separating them currently.
- AS claims Barcelona remain in the box seat to sign highly sought-after Atletico Madrid star Saul Niguez despite their financial challenges. Saul has been chased by Premier League trio Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea.
- Atalanta are set to win the race to sign Juventus defender Merih Demiral, claims Sky Deutschland, with Cristian Romero looking likely to join Tottenham. Bundesliga pair Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen were also interested in the Turkey international.
- Roma head coach Jose Mourinho has switched his attention from Arsenal's Granit Xhaka to Dortmund's Thomas Delaney, according to Bild.
Aaron Ramsey has not set the world on fire since joining Juventus from Arsenal two years ago.
It has been reported in Italy that the Serie A club are ready to listen to offers.
Ramsey reportedly earns £250,000 per week and Juve are said to be keen to ease that burden.
TOP STORY - SPURS SHOCK MOVE FOR RAMSEY
Tottenham are lining up a shock move for former Arsenal midfielder Aaron Ramsey, claims The Sun.
Juventus may be looking to offload the Wales international, who has made 46 league appearances in two seasons in Turin.
Tottenham's managing director of football Fabio Paratici is keen to bring Ramsey back to London to team up with Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg.
ROUND-UP
- Tottenham have ramped up their bid to sign Atalanta centre-back Cristian Romero who will cost around £40million (€46m), according to The Telegraph.
- Marca claims Inter, Sampdoria and Genoa are monitoring Real Madrid's 23-year-old striker Luka Jovic.
- Monaco's Montenegrin striker Stevan Jovetic has agreed to join Bundesliga club Hertha Berlin on a deal until 2024, reports Sky Sport.
- The Telegraph reports that Newcastle United are keen on signing Manchester United defender Axel Tuanzebe, with a loan or permanent move discussed.
- Sky Sports claims West Ham are still interested in signing Paris Saint-Germain goalkeeper Alphonse Areola, who spent last season on loan at Fulham.
- Italian clubs Lazio and Napoli, along with Spanish outfit Villarreal, fancy Liverpool's Xherdan Shaqiri, reports Sky Sports.
Tottenham have confirmed the signing of Pierluigi Gollini from Atalanta, with the goalkeeper initially joining on a season-long loan deal that includes an option to buy.
Gollini has played 89 Serie A games across the past five seasons for Atalanta, having joined the Serie A club after a spell in English football at Aston Villa.
The 26-year-old had previously spent time at Manchester United earlier in his career, too, but it was at Hellas Verona where he made his first-team debut during the 2014-15 season.
After representing Italy at youth level, he made his debut for the Azzurri when coming on as a late substitute in a Euro 2020 qualifier against Bosnia-Herzegovina in November 2019, though that remains his only international appearance to date.
Now part of Nuno Espirito Santos' squad at Spurs, Gollini is looking forward to working alongside Hugo Lloris – but also plans to prove he is a long-term option to be the new number one.
Harry Kane looks like he might soon get his wish to leave Tottenham.
Spurs had previously dug in their heels and were determined that Kane, who is contracted until 2024, would stay.
The England captain won last season's Premier League Golden Boot with 23 goals, and now he could be heading to the champions.
TOP STORY – CITY SET FOR BUMPER KANE DEAL
Tottenham forward Harry Kane is poised for a £160million move to Manchester City, reports The Sun.
According to the report, Spurs chairman Daniel Levy will allow Kane to exit the club for such a sum.
Kane is said by the newspaper to have agreed personal terms on a £400,000-a-week deal with City, which is reportedly double his current Tottenham contract.
ROUND-UP
- Paul Pogba has rejected a £50million contract offer at Manchester United and is set to leave this summer, according to The Mirror as rumours swirl about Paris Saint-Germain's interest.
- Marca reports that Kylian Mbappe will reject Paris Saint-Germain's latest contract offer and look to seal a move to Spanish giants Real Madrid.
- Fabrizio Romano has reported that talks are ongoing between Atalanta and Tottenham for Cristian Romero with personal terms agreed and a €55m price tag on the table.
- Atalanta want Tottenham defender Davinson Sanchez included in any deal, reports Sportitalia.
- Milan are interested in signing Chelsea midfielder Hakim Ziyech on loan, claims Calcio Mercato.
- Donyell Malen 's transfer from PSV Eindhoven to Borussia Dortmund is all but done according to Dutch outlet ED, with an anticipated €30m fee.
Pierluigi Gollini says he is excited about his "big opportunity" with Tottenham ahead of his official unveiling expected on Friday.
The 26-year-old Atalanta goalkeeper flew out on Thursday to sign on loan with Tottenham - with a €15 million (£12.8m) option to buy - where he will be Hugo Lloris' understudy.
Gollini has been Atalanta's preferred shot-stopper for the past three seasons, which marked three consecutive third-place finishes for the small Bergamo club.
The Italian has previously spent time in England with Manchester United and Aston Villa but was delighted by the opportunity that Spurs presented him.
“I am very happy. Clearly, it was difficult to leave a place that was like a second home and family," Gollini said.
"I thank Bergamo, as I felt loved here and what we did will remain in the history of the club, but this is a new experience.
“I am very happy and grateful to Tottenham for this big opportunity. Hugo Lloris is a World Cup winner, so it’s prestigious and an honour for me to play with him.”
Gollini added that Tottenham was the "best offer" he received and would have found it difficult remaining in Serie A for any club but Atalanta.
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