It may be a year late, but Euro 2020 is almost upon us and the opportunity for glory is just around the corner.
The usual suspects will be undoubtedly favoured by many, with France's squad seemingly stronger than ever, Portugal possessing a seriously talented group and England looking good as they bid to end their long wait for international success.
Similarly, Italy and the Netherlands are back on the scene after missing out on tournament qualification in recent times, while Germany will be hoping to bounce back from their World Cup humiliation.
Die Mannschaft were eliminated from the group stage of a World Cup for the first time ever by South Korea three years ago, and Joachim Low will be eager to restore some dignity in what will be his final tournament in charge.
But could the trophy actually end up being lifted by one of the unfancied teams? We all remember Greece's remarkable triumph in 2004, for example.
With that in mind, Stats Perform has identified some potential dark horses ahead of the tournament.
Turkey – Group A
Key man: Burak Yilmaz
One to watch: Abdulkadir Omur
It's fair to say Turkey are a curious team in international football. They have reached the semi-finals in two – and come third on both occasions – of their past three major tournaments, which is impressive, but the caveat is that trio of qualifications spanned 2002-2018.
Euro 2020 will be only their fourth major tournament appearance out of a possible 11 this century across the European Championship and World Cup, and they disappointed at Euro 2016 as they were eliminated at the group stage.
But there are reasons for optimism this time, particularly given the encouraging amount of talent in a youthful squad – their average age of 25 years exactly is the lowest at the tournament, and it would be even lower were it not for the presence of 35-year-old Burak Yilmaz, who certainly isn't there as some kind of token 'Golden Oldie'.
The burly centre-forward proved plenty of doubters wrong in his debut Ligue 1 season with Lille, his 16 goals and five assists helping them to an unlikely title triumph. Those 21 direct goal involvements put him six ahead of any other Lille player, and his experience helped a Les Dogues team that was also on the young side.
Yilmaz became the first player to score at least 15 goals in his first season with Lille in Ligue 1 since Moussa Sow in 2010-11 (25), while his penalty at Angers on the final day saw him beat the record for the most goals netted by a Turkish player in a single campaign in the competition, set by Mevlut Erdinc in 2009-10.
Yilmaz's Lille team-mates Zeki Celik and Yusuf Yazici – the latter scored 14 club goals across all 2020-21 competitions from midfield – are also present, while Hakan Calhanoglu offers guaranteed creativity. The Milan playmaker created the most chances in Serie A (98) in 2020-21, while his nine assists came from an xA (expected assists) value of 8.5, suggesting that haul came from a place of consistency rather than luck.
But then Turkey also looked solid at the back in qualifying, their three goals conceded in 10 games was the joint-best record alongside Belgium, and Kaan Ayhan's three headed goals en route to the Euros wasn't bettered by anyone, meaning Calhanoglu's set-piece deliveries could be a real asset.
Senol Gunes is back at the helm having guided them to third place at the 2002 World Cup, and he may just fancy another upset 19 years on.
Ukraine – Group C
Key man: Ruslan Malinovskiy
One to watch: Illya Zabarnyi
Ukraine are long-term underachievers at this level. They've failed to score in their last five games at the European Championship, the longest goalless run in the history of the tournament.
In fact, none of Ukraine's last 67 shots have ended in the back of the net. This, coupled with the fact their coach Andrey Shevchenko is the only player to find the net for them at the Euros (a brace against Sweden in 2012) highlights their biggest issue over the past nine years: scoring goals.
While the likes of Andriy Yarmolenko and Yevhen Konoplyanka – the latter of whom isn't in the squad due to injury – have good records, Ukraine have lacked a reliable goal threat in the central striker berth practically ever since Shevchenko retired.
However, in Gent forward Roman Yaremchuk they may have finally founded a suitable answer, with the 25-year-old heading into the tournament on the back of his best-ever season for goals, having netted 20 times in the Belgian top flight.
Those 20 strikes came from an xG (expected goals) value of 18.2 as well, so although he may have been fortunate once or twice, he would still have expected to get a good haul, which speaks to his reliability in front of goal.
Ruslan Malinovskiy of Atalanta is another interesting player. Something of a late bloomer, the talented central midfielder has been an important part of a wonderful Nerazzurri side this season.
While his Serie A-high 12 assists was considerably higher than his 6.7 xA, suggesting his passes benefited from particularly impressive finishing, that xA figure was still only bettered by only six players.
Similarly, his 57 key passes in open play was second only to Luis Alberto (59), yet it's worth bearing in mind Malinovskiy only actually started 22 matches.
Czech Republic – Group D
Key man: Tomas Soucek
One to watch: Adam Hlozek
At Euro 2016, the Czech Republic only managed one point as they failed to get past the group stage, and there will be plenty of people expecting them to crash out in a similar manner again.
Nevertheless, they're a country with a strong history in the competition given this is their seventh successive appearance at the Euros, a streak only Germany (13) and France (eight) can better.
Group D should provide them with opportunities as well. While England will be strongly fancied to finish top, Croatia aren't generally seen as quite the same force they were at the last World Cup, and Scotland, though possessing some talented players, are inexperienced at such competitions.
An area that could prove particularly useful for the Czech Republic in what could prove to be a tight group is their set-piece prowess. Seven of their 13 goals in qualifying were scored at set-plays – that's 54 per cent, the joint-highest ratio of any side to qualify.
That's not their only weapon, however. They do have talented individuals in the squad such as Jakub Jankto and Patrik Schick, the hard-working Tomas Soucek – who won more duels and aerials than any other Premier League player in 2020-21 – and a solid goalkeeper in Tomas Vaclik.
They also have something of a wildcard in their midst: Adam Hlozek.
Despite missing a chunk of the season through injury, Sparta Prague's Hlozek still managed to plunder 15 Liga goals in just 19 matches, and in April he became the competition's youngest hat-trick scorer with his treble against Opava.
He then finished the season with an astonishing four-goal haul against Zbrojovka Brno to finish as the league's joint-top scorer, though he also had six assists to his name. The 18-year-old is a complete striker if there ever was one, and he could be a potential breakout star for Czech Republic if he overcomes a pre-tournament injury.
Poland – Group E
Key man: Robert Lewandowski
One to watch: Kacper Kozlowski
Poland's situation in terms of grouping is quite similar to the Czech Republic. Spain will be expected to top Group E, otherwise it looks difficult to call between the Polish, Sweden and Slovakia.
Further to that, the runner-up spot will secure a second-round clash with the team that finishes second in Group D, which could potentially be the Czech Republic. It's entirely plausible that either of them could get as far as the quarter-finals thanks to a relatively kind draw.
Of course, there are lots of variables to consider before than and along the way, but Poland have the advantage of boasting arguably the world's best striker in their squad.
Sure, Robert Lewandowski has scored only one goal in his last 10 games in major competitions (World Cup and Euros), netting against Portugal in the Euro 2016 quarter-finals, but he heads into this tournament on the back of a remarkable season.
The Bayern Munich star's 41 Bundesliga goals broke Gerd Muller's long-standing record of 40 in a single season. The next-best tally in Europe's top five leagues in 2020-21 saw Lionel Messi trailing well behind on 30.
Lewandowski unsurprisingly also led Europe in expected goals – with his chances worth 32.2 xG – and expected goals on target, producing shots with a value of 35.8 xGOT.
He and Poland were arguably unfortunate to not reach the semi-finals five years ago as they were the only team never to trail at any point in Euro 2016, with their elimination by eventual winners Portugal coming via a penalty shootout.
If Lewandowski manages to carry over his Bayern form a little better this time around, who's to say they can't go beyond the last eight in 2020.
Eddie Howe staying grounded after Newcastle’s ‘amazing night’ against PSG
Newcastle boss Eddie Howe will not allow Newcastle to get ahead of themselves despite seeing them dismantle Champions League giants Paris St Germain.
The 4-1 victory over the 2020 runners-up at St James’ Park took the Magpies – playing in the competition for the first time in 20 years – to the top of Group F after two games.
However, head coach Howe was refusing to be carried away by a performance and a result which brought back memories of the club’s 3-2 Champions League win over Barcelona 26 years ago.
Howe, who inherited a Newcastle side seemingly heading for the Sky Bet Championship less than two years ago, said: “Going from the difficult moment we were in to now, it’s a great lesson for us not to get ahead of ourselves.
“We’ve come a long way in a short period of time, but we want to keep going and we take nothing for granted. Amazing night, but we’ve got to continue to work hard from here.
“It goes without saying we hope that gives us that belief that we need to be successful in this competition. Against Milan in our first game, there was an element of us not quite hitting the levels that we expected of ourselves.
“But I think it’s only by doing that you can truly prove to yourself that you can do it consistently, and I think today will go a long way towards proving that.
“But as I said, there are so many difficult games to come in this competition. It’s a small step forward, but there’s still a long, long way to go.
“The next game in this competition will be hugely important, but that goes to the back of our minds now as we focus back on to the Premier League and West Ham.”
The Magpies got off to a dream start when Bruno Guimaraes picked off Marquinhos’ ill-judged ball out of defence and although Gianluigi Donnarumma saved Alexander Isak’s initial shot, Miguel Almiron followed up to score.
Dan Burn made it 2-0 with a towering header six minutes before the break, after a lengthy VAR check, and Sean Longstaff put the Magpies in dreamland five minutes after the restart.
Lucas Hernandez’s 56th-minute header sparked something of a fightback, but ultimately it amounted to little and Fabian Schar smashed home a fourth in stoppage time to cement a remarkable win.
Howe was particularly pleased for Geordies Burn and Longstaff, lifelong supporters of the club they now represent with such distinction.
He said: “I really do respect the Geordies who have had life-long associations with the club and understand what it means to play for Newcastle and have a unique experience, really, so for Sean to score and play how he did and for Dan, they’re amazing moments in their careers.”
A crowd of 52,009 witnessed a remarkable night on Tyneside, although the visiting fans, some of whom briefly caused troubled as they were escorted to the stadium by police, left less than impressed by what superstar Kylian Mbappe and his team-mates produced on the pitch.
Asked if he took responsibility for the performance, PSG boss Luis Enrique said: “Yes absolutely, there’s no doubt about that, I’m the first person to be responsible for what happened this evening. Of course I’m responsible for it.
“I think the outcome of the game was fair, although the scoreline was perhaps a little bit too much in their favour, not really a fair reflection.
“But of course we made such careless mistakes which led to their goals and when you play at this level, you can’t afford to do that.”
Wales defender Ben Cabango limps out of Swansea’s win over Norwich
Swansea centre-back Ben Cabango has given Wales boss Rob Page another injury worry after he limped out of his side’s 2-1 home win over Norwich in the Championship.
Wales are already without Aaron Ramsey and Brennan Johnson for the vital Euro 2024 qualifier with Croatia on October 15 and Swansea boss Michael Duff confirmed Cabango suffered a hamstring issue after he went off in the second half of his club’s victory on Wednesday night.
“Ben did the right thing in coming off. He felt something in his hamstring in the first half and then again later on,” said Duff.
“If he isn’t fit for the weekend, then I don’t think he’ll be able to go off to play for Wales during the international window.”
The win gave Duff’s new-look side a haul of 10 points from a possible 12 in their last four Championship matches having failed to win in any of their opening seven games in all competitions.
“I was delighted with the result and the performance. We started with real intent and the first goal came from a high press,” said Duff.
“Then their goal came from us getting our press wrong. In the second half we defended our box well and got the winner.
“Norwich are one of the best teams in the league and we finished very strongly against them. The fans really got behind us in the added six minutes at the end because our lads were out on their feet.”
Norwich boss David Wagner was “very disappointed” after seeing his side fail to press home their advantage in the second half.
“We didn’t do our job properly in each box, goals change games and we didn’t take our chances,” said Wagner.
“That’s three away defeats in a row now and we lost a game that we could have won. We have to be better in both boxes.
“After two away defeats in a row we knew we had a chance to pick up some points in an important game. It was there for us, but we didn’t do our job.
“Obviously the result is very disappointing. Performance-wise, first half we were not good, second half we were much better.
“Second half we have to kill the game. We had enough very good opportunities until 75-80 minutes.
“After that they put pressure on us with set-pieces. If you don’t kill the game, then one situation can cost you.
“It’s very frustrating that we were not clinical in both boxes today and have not won a game we had opportunities to win at 1-1.”
Mark Robins proud of brave Coventry win over Blackburn
Mark Robins praised his brave Coventry side after they earned a narrow 1-0 victory over Blackburn at the CBS Arena.
Record signing Haji Wright nodded in on 85 minutes after Yasin Ayari’s effort had rebounded off the crossbar.
The Sky Blues had already hit the woodwork twice through Matty Godden and Bobby Thomas, while James Hill’s thunderous effort came back off the woodwork in the first half for Blackburn.
It meant back-to-back wins for the first time this season for Coventry, who beat QPR 3-1 at the weekend thanks to a brace from Ellis Simms.
“We started the brighter of the teams, had loads of energy, tried to execute what we wanted to do and did it pretty successfully to start with,” explained Robins.
“They got control in the second half of the first half and had a lot of possession and they can do that to you.
“You’ve got to be brave, work really hard to try and play through them and if you can do that and the first pass is a really good pass, then you can take out the majority of the team.
“With the pace of Ellis and Haji you can cause them problems and it looked that way. We had the spell in the second half when we created a lot more chances.
“The header is a brilliant header from Haji and he gets a lot of power on it and just waits for the right moment and the timing is perfect.
“It gives us a lead, having conceded a goal at the other end I thought he was going to give. Ben Wilson has got the ball in both hands and he has kicked the ball out of his hands by Moran.
“They are a good side and they will probably get fed up of hearing it, because they have played some really good teams now.
“I think they are a really good team and we’ve done really well to get the three points. Back-to-back wins for the first time this season which is really welcome.”
Blackburn head coach Jon Dahl Tomasson was defiant after his Rovers side suffered a fourth loss on the bounce, as well as seeing a goal disallowed when Andrew Moran was adjudged to have kicked the ball out of Ben Wilson’s hands before tapping in.
“Disappointed with the result of course, I actually saw a really good team, great spirit and togetherness against a good opponent in an away game,” said the Dane.
“I think we were quite solid in everything we did with the ball, without the ball, we created chances and we had big moments where we probably should have done better.
“We need to be more clinical in the box to get results but I think the boys have played an excellent game so if we keep on doing this then we will get some results.
“From my distance it was a strange situation wasn’t it? The referee had no clue if it was a goal or not, the linesman did nothing and after a short chat suddenly it was a free kick.
“I haven’t seen it back, then after that we have an extremely big moment, maybe one or two against one with the goalkeeper, then we are leading 1-0, but a good performance from my players for sure.
“We are doing a lot of good things, we have been giving too easy goals away, I think we were quite solid today mostly and we have created plenty of goal chances to win games, but of course we need to score.”
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