The NFL Draft is rarely dominated by teams in contention to lift the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the upcoming season.
Though trades regularly shuffle the pack, more often than not the draft headlines are made by teams who finished at the wrong end of the regular-season standings in the previous campaign, such is the nature of league's annual selection meeting.
While those franchises with rosters capable of contending to go all the way to the Super Bowl may not be as reliant on the draft as those rebuilding their teams, the selections they make can be critical in providing the potential final piece of what they hope will be a championship-winning puzzle.
Inevitably, not every team expected to contend in April will do so once the season gets under way in September.
Yet we can make educated guesses as to which teams will be in the mix to go deep into the postseason in each conference.
Here Stats Perform has identified four such teams from each conference, with the Cleveland Browns omitted from the list due to the threat of a possible suspension for new starting quarterback Deshaun Watson.
With help from some advanced metrics, we look at what each of these eight teams need to add in the draft to maximise their hopes of standing underneath the confetti in Arizona next February.
NFC
Los Angeles Rams
Identifying draft needs for the Rams is a difficult task not because they don't have any, but because they so often fill their holes by trading away their picks to land superstars.
This year, the Rams don't pick until 104 overall in the third round, not that the Super Bowl champions will mind skipping the first two rounds.
When it finally comes to their turn, the interior of the offensive line stands out as an area of weakness, while the Rams might also be eyeing an edge rusher to help fill the void left by Von Miller, whose stunt-adjusted pass rush win percentage of 43.4 was fifth among edge rushers with at least 100 one-on-one matchups last year.
San Francisco 49ers
The Niners are in a similar position to the Rams in that they don't have a lot of needs, though the urgency is greater for a team that let a fourth-quarter lead slip against Los Angeles in the NFC Championship Game.
Right guard has been a long-standing issue for San Francisco, and the Niners will also need to find a developmental center to replace Alex Mack when he eventually retires. Nebraska's Cam Jurgens is a name to watch there.
San Francisco do not pick until 61st overall in the second round, having traded this year's first-rounder in the package that landed Trey Lance. A defense that ranked first in pass rush win rate could be stacked further by another edge rusher to pair with Nick Bosa, and there is a clear need next to Jimmie Ward at safety.
Of course, what would really make it a successful draft for the Niners would be finally trading Jimmy Garoppolo to secure more picks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There's a theme here, and the theme is that trying to find needs for NFC contenders is tough, especially in the case of the Bucs, who brought back Tom Brady after he quickly got bored with retirement and re-signed a host of free agents many expected to depart.
With Todd Bowles assuming the head coaching reins from Bruce Arians, it's fair to anticipate a focus on the defense from the Bucs, who own the 27th pick in the first round as well as two other top-100 selections.
More beef on the interior of the defensive line is required with Ndamukong Suh as yet not re-signed and, though Logan Ryan and Keanu Neal have signed as safety help to atone for Jordan Whitehead's departure, a rookie who can make a difference down in the box and in coverage would be a welcome addition to the defense.
Green Bay Packers
Now this is more like it. The Packers have one glaring, obvious need and there's no way they can fail to address it, right?
Brian Gutekunst may have a history of eschewing first-round wide receivers but, after trading Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders, it would be an extremely bemusing move to risk Aaron Rodgers' wrath and do so again.
Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson... they all must be in the mix here and, with two selections in the first round, the Packers could even double up at the position.
There are other holes. The secondary could use some more quality depth, and an offensive line that ranked 28th in run-block win rate could also be improved, but the Packers' hopes of getting over the hump in 2022 likely rest on their ability to give Rodgers weapons that mitigate the impact of Adams' stunning departure.
AFC
Kansas City Chiefs
After Patrick Mahomes faced the most pressures in a Super Bowl since 2006 in consecutive years (28 in SB LIV, 34 in SB LV), the Chiefs overhauled their offensive line heading into 2021 and were confident they were on course for the title game once again – only for Mahomes' own stunning playoff collapse to end both the team's season and the career of Tyreek Hill in Kansas City.
Hill's departure in a trade to the Miami Dolphins leaves a gaping hole.
New signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling at least offers a downfield option, but that was his sole responsibility with the Packers in 2021, recording a league-high average depth of target of 17.6 yards but making just 26 catches. Valdes-Scantling and fellow recruit JuJu Smith-Schuster, who's coming off shoulder surgery, have just one 1,000-yard season between them; Hill has four.
Thankfully, the Hill deal means the Chiefs have plenty of draft picks – two in each of the first three rounds – and plenty of options at wide receiver, but safety Tyrann Mathieu and cornerback Charvarius Ward must also be replaced just to get Kansas City back to where they started.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a year behind the Chiefs, beaten in the Super Bowl after leaving their quarterback horribly exposed. Joe Burrow faced 23 pressures against the Rams, tied for third-most since 2006.
Like the Chiefs, they quickly set about bolstering their O line in free agency, though there remains a pressing need at left guard. Ted Karras played there for the New England Patriots last year, but is set to move back into center after Trey Hopkins was cut.
That versatility at least gives the Bengals options at either position depending on how the draft plays out, with their first pick not until the end of the first round (31). In fact, given competition at cornerback, edge and/or tight end could also be sought, the Bengals may be flexible throughout.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills are the Super Bowl favourites, and with good reason. They were a coin flip away from beating the Chiefs and would have backed themselves against the Bengals, which might have quelled some of the optimism in Cincinnati channelled above. Buffalo have also added Super Bowl champion Miller to a defense that gave up a league-low 4.57 yards per play.
That's not to say there don't remain areas for improvement, with cornerback an obvious place to start. Tre'Davious White is returning from an ACL tear, and the Bills need a new man opposite him, given the loss of Levi Wallace.
The Bills might also be advised to ease the burden on all-action quarterback Josh Allen with the addition of a reliable running back. Allen ranked third among QBs for rushing yards in 2021 (763) but accounted for 34.5 per cent of his team's total – far and away the greatest share at his position.
Second on the list was former MVP Lamar Jackson (767 yards, 30.9 per cent), who's already showing signs of wear and tear having been tasked with running the Baltimore Ravens' offense.
Los Angeles Chargers
Outside the Packers, the Chargers perhaps have the most obvious positional need of any contender at right tackle – despite their own strong signings so far.
Left tackle Rashawn Slater was their first-round pick in 2021 and earned Pro Bowl recognition in his rookie season. Among offensive tackles with 200 or more pass protection snaps, Slater's stunt-adjusted win percentage of 90.5 ranked third. However, that stood in complete contrast to right tackle Storm Norton, whose 63.0 per cent ranked third-last.
Norton was brought in to play 15 games after a back injury put Bryan Bulaga on injured reserve. Bulaga has now been cut, and the Chargers surely cannot run it back with Norton.
The very best OTs in the draft are unlikely to still be available when the Chargers get to work in the middle of the first round, but it's no surprise to see them widely linked with Northern Iowa's Trevor Penning.
Record-setting first round of NFL draft goes offence heavy
Offence and then offence, some more offence followed by offence.
That was the story of a record-setting first round of the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit on Thursday night.
For the first time in history, the first 14 picks were offensive players, including six quarterbacks and three wide receivers. The first defensive player didn’t come off the board until the Indianapolis Colts selected edge rusher Laiatu Latu from UCLA with the 15th pick.
The latest a first round had previously gone before a defensive player was taken was No. 8 overall. That’s where the Carolina Panthers took cornerback Jaycee Horn in 2021.
Not only were the 14 straight offensive players to start the draft a record, but it was also the first time 14 consecutive offensive players were taken at any point in the draft.
As expected, the first three picks were quarterbacks.
USC’s Caleb Williams – the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner - went first overall to the Chicago Bears, 2023 Heisman winner Jayden Daniels from LSU was picked next by the Washington Commanders and the New England Patriots took Drake Maye out of North Carolina.
This was the fourth time in the common draft era starting in 1967 that quarterbacks went with the top three picks.
The QBs continued to fly off the board soon after, with the Atlanta Falcons pulling the first surprise of the draft by selecting Michael Penix Jr. of Washington with the 8th overall pick.
The Falcons took Penix less than two months after signing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed.
J.J. McCarthy was the next QB taken, as the Minnesota Vikings moved up one spot to 10th in a trade with the New York Jets. McCarthy went 27-1 as a starter at Michigan and won last season’s national championship.
The Denver Broncos grabbed Oregon signal-caller Bo Nix with the 12th pick as they look to settle a position that has been in flux since Peyton Manning. The Broncos have had 13 starting quarterbacks since Manning retired as a Super Bowl champion after the 2015 season.
Six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks tied the 1983 draft for the most taken in any first round. Three of those became Hall of Fame quarterbacks – John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly. Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O’Brien also went in the first round in 1983.
The Arizona Cardinals stopped the run of quarterbacks by going for Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4. The Los Angeles Chargers opened the Jim Harbaugh era by taking Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt and the New York Giants picked up explosive LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth pick.
After the Tennessee Titans took Alabama offensive tackle J.C. Latham with the seventh pick, the Bears took Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze at No. 9 with their second selection in the top 10.
The Vikings made the biggest move up in terms of spots, going from No. 23 to 17 in a swap with the Jacksonville Jaguars to select Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner.
The Jaguars selected LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd pick as they try to fill the void left by Calvin Ridley signing with division rival Tennessee in free agency.
It was only fitting that the final two picks of the first round were wide receivers. Ricky Pearsall of Florida went 31st to the San Francisco 49ers and South Carolina’s Xavier Legette was the last selection to the Carolina Panthers.
The 23 offensive players picked was easily the most in history, surpassing the previous record of 19 (1968, 2004 and 2009).
The Philadelphia Eagles made the biggest move of the night outside the draft, agreeing to a three-year contract extension with star wide receiver A.J. Brown.
The contract includes $84 million in guaranteed money and will make Brown the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL at $32 million a season. He could earn as much as $96 million over the length of the extension.
Brown had 106 catches for 1,456 yards receiving last season after he had 88 catches for 1,496 yards in 2022, in his first season with the Eagles.
Brown spent his first three seasons with the Tennessee Titans after he was drafted 51st overall in the 2019 draft. He surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first two seasons in the NFL and had 869 in 13 games in his third season.
Colts make edge rusher Latu first defensive player drafted at No. 15
The first defensive player is finally off the board.
The Indianapolis Colts ended the longest run of consecutive offensive players selected to start a draft by taking UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu with the eighth overall pick in Thursday's draft.
Latu arrives in the NFL after winning last year's Lombardi Award, which is given to the best collegiate lineman in the United States.
As a senior last year, he also won the Ted Hendricks Award, which is given to the nation's top defensive end.
A first-team All-American and the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2023, Latu will continue his football career in the NFL after it appeared his playing days were over just a few years ago.
While playing at Washington in 2020, Latu suffered a neck injury that required surgery and doctors did not clear him for the 2021 season forcing him to medically retire. He ended up transferring to UCLA, where he excelled on the field after being medically cleared.
In his first season with the Bruins in 2022, he was a first-team All-Pac 12 selection after registering the eighth-most sacks in the FBS with 10 ½.
He took a step forward in 2023, as he led the FBS with 21 ½ tackles for loss and his 13 sacks were tied for fourth in the nation.
Latu showed he can beat opposing offensive linemen in multiple ways, either using a quick first step to blow by them or overpowering them with his upper-body strength.
He plays with a high motor and has been playing with a chip on his shoulder for the last two years after being out of football for two years.
The Colts, who finished 9-8 in 2023, are now banking on his mindset and skillset succeeding in the NFL.
Prior to Indianapolis picking Latu, the latest the first defensive player was selected in the common draft era (1967) was in 2021, when the Carolina Panthers drafted South Carolina defensive back with the eighth pick.
Broncos select quarterback Nix at No. 12 as the run on QBs continues
Sean Payton got his man.
Payton has a new quarterback to run his offence after the Denver Broncos selected Oregon's Bo Nix with the 12th pick in NFL draft on Thursday.
In the weeks leading up to the draft, Nix had been linked to Denver, as he had been drawing comparisons to Drew Brees – the quarterback who flourished under Payton with the New Orleans Saints and the two won a Super Bowl together in 2009.
He now will likely get a chance to compete for the starting QB job in Denver after the Broncos released Russell Wilson in early March following an 8-9 finish in 2023.
Nix comes to Denver with plenty of experience of reading defences after starting an NCAA-record 61 games during his five years in college.
As a senior in 2023, Nix put up eye-popping numbers, leading the FBS with 45 touchdowns while throwing just three interceptions to finish third in Heisman Trophy voting.
He set an NCAA-single-season record for completion percentage at 77.4, and his 4,508 passing yards trailed only Michael Penix Jr. for the most in the United States.
Not only does Nix do an excellent job of protecting the football, as his interception rate of 0.6 ranked third out of 119 qualifying FBS quarterbacks, but he also excels in getting rid of the ball quickly and avoiding the sack.
Despite attempting 470 passes, he was sacked just five times – the fewest among the 44 quarterbacks with at least 350 pass attempts.
Showing poise in the pocket, Nix has superb touch on his passes, firing the ball out quickly from a variety of arm platforms.
Nix is the second quarterback acquired by the Broncos this week after the team traded for Zach Wilson from the New York Jets on Monday, and Nix is actually just a few months younger than Wilson, who was the second overall pick of the 2021 draft.
The 24-year-old Nix began his collegiate career at Auburn in 2019 and spent his first three years there before transferring to Oregon prior to the 2022 season.
In his collegiate career, Nix completed 66.4 per cent of his passes for 15,352 yards with 113 touchdowns and 26 interceptions.
With Denver drafting Nix, this marks the first time in the history of the common draft (1967) that half of the first 12 picks were quarterbacks.
The last time six QBs were picked in the first round was the famous 1983 draft, when Hall of Famer and former Bronco John Elway, along with Hall of Famers Jim Kelly and Dan Mariano, as well as Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien were selected in the opening round.
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