There wasn't much value in being the favourite in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.
Three of the four underdogs, the Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, prevailed to progress to Conference Championship weekend.
An incredible overtime win over the Buffalo Bills saw the Kansas City Chiefs, the sole favourite to prevail, join them in moving one game away from the Super Bowl.
Despite a victory in a game many have already labelled as the best playoff game of all time, the Chiefs' position in the Super Bowl odds by Stats Perform's rest-of-season projection has gone down, with the Rams leapfrogging them and taking their spot as the team most likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy on February 13.
So how has a week of action in which the Chiefs were victorious flipped the odds against Kansas City?
Hollywood ending in store for LA?
Rest-of-season or, in this case, postseason projection, projects every future game to give a predicted win percentage for each team across its remaining games. Rather than being a simulator of future games, the projections are calculated by looking at each team's quarterback and QB efficiency versus expected – performance in terms of yards added in expected passing situations – as well as team values for pass protection/pass rush, skill position players/coverage defenders and run blocking/run defense.
For the playoffs, the projection has been used to calculate each team's odds of winning a home game against every postseason team, with those predictions then used to forecast each franchise's chances of reaching and winning the Super Bowl.
Last week, prior to the Divisional games, the Chiefs were given a 27 per cent shot to win the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons, just ahead of the Rams on 26.3 per cent.
Following their respective victories, the Chiefs are viewed as having a 37.84 per cent chance of taking the silverware back to Missouri. The more likely outcome, at least according to ROS, is that the trophy stays at SoFi Stadium with the Rams, whose odds of winning it for only the second time in franchise history have ballooned to 38.21.
It is not a huge margin between the two, but the change at the top is enough to raise eyebrows given how devastating the Chiefs were on offense in defeating the Bills.
But the Rams' position as the new Super Bowl favourite is more a reflection of the potential opponents, rather than a commentary on the merits of the respective teams.
Another nail-biter for the Chiefs
Kansas City already has experience of one nerve-shredding Super Bowl with an NFC West opponent, coming back from 20-10 down in the fourth quarter to beat the 49ers two years ago in Super Bowl LIV.
And ROS expects either a meeting with the Rams or a rematch with the Niners to be similarly tense.
The Chiefs would not be considered favourites in a home game with the Rams, Kansas City given just a 45.2 per cent chance to triumph.
That number improves significantly in a matchup with the 49ers, against whom the Chiefs have 58.2 per cent odds of winning a home game.
It is still not an overly decisive margin, however, and pales in comparison to the Rams' prospects of beating the alternative AFC representative, the Bengals.
Cincinnati would have just a 16.8 per cent shot of winning a road game with Los Angeles, and those odds improve to just 19.8 per cent in a home game.
In other words, while a close game likely beckons for the Chiefs regardless of who wins the NFC Championship Game, an upset win for the Bengals in Kansas City would make the Rams or the Niners (72.1 per cent home game, 67.2 per cent away game) clear favourites to win the Super Bowl on the neutral field site at SoFi Stadium.
The Bengals' status as rank outsiders even after making it this far is in part based on the struggles of an offensive line that ranked 25th in Stats Perform's pass protection win rate and allowed nine sacks in the Divisional Round win over the Tennessee Titans.
San Francisco (first), Los Angeles (second) and the Chiefs (15th) each ranked in the top half of the NFL in pass-rush win rate, meaning Cincinnati will be at a clear disadvantage in the trenches in the AFC Championship Game and in a potential Super Bowl matchup.
The 2021 NFL season has been full of surprises, but the numbers clearly point to the Rams playing in a home Super Bowl against the Chiefs.
So, is everybody ready for Niners-Bengals?
Lazio 3-1 Napoli: Noslin hat-trick fires Biancocelesti into Coppa Italia quarter-finals
Tijjani Noslin's hat-trick booked Lazio's place in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals following a 3-1 victory over Napoli.
The Dutch forward's first treble of his career proved decisive at Stadio Olimpico, where Giovanni Simeone's strike proved nothing more than a consolation for the visitors.
Lazio were awarded a penalty in the 20th minute after Elia Caprile brought down Pedro, but the Napoli goalkeeper redeemed himself with a smart save to deny Mattia Zaccagni from 12 yards.
Nevertheless, the hosts broke through in the 32nd minute. Samuel Gigot headed Loum Tchaouna's deep centre back across goal for Noslin to nod home.
Simeone brought Napoli level four minutes later, tucking away a rebound after Christos Mandas could only parry David Neres' initial effort.
However, Noslin put Lazio back in front within five minutes after Pedro cushioned a cross neatly into his path, before completing his hat-trick early in the second half when heading home Zaccagni's centre.
Data Debrief: Another last-16 exit for Partenopei
Lazio are through to the Coppa Italia quarter-finals for a 14th consecutive season, after Noslin stole the show in Rome.
The Dutchman had never previously in his career scored two goals in the same match, let alone three.
Meanwhile, Napoli have now won just one of their last six away games in the Coppa Italia, and have exited the tournament at this stage in each of the last four seasons.
Cacereno 1-3 Atletico Madrid: Simeone's side survive scare after late fightback
Atletico Madrid progressed to the Copa del Rey last 32, but only after surviving a scare against fourth-tier Cacereno.
Diego Simeone's side trailed 1-0 in the 83rd minute at Estadio Principe Felipe, after Alvario Merencio's first-half strike.
However, the LaLiga side levelled through Clement Lenglet, before striking twice in stoppage time through Julian Alvarez and an Adri Perez own-goal.
Julio Cobos' side were on a four-match winning streak in Group 5 of the Segunda Federacion, and took the lead on the half-hour mark, with Merencio rounding off a quick counter.
The hosts held firm but were finally breached seven minutes from time, when Lenglet headed in from Rodrigo de Paul's cross.
Cacereno were reduced to 10 men two minutes later with Jaime Sancho shown a second yellow card, and Atletico capitalised on their numerical advantage in stoppage time.
De Paul's shot deflected in off Perez to complete the turnaround, while Alvarez put the tie beyond the fourth-tier outfit later on.
Data Debrief: Late, late show spares Atletico blushes
Atletico had won each of their last seven matches across all competitions, but they were given an almighty scare on Thursday.
Nevertheless, Simeone's side eventually broke Cacereno's resistance, scoring three goals from the 83rd minute onwards in any competition for only the second time - also doing so against Real Zaragoza in June 2013.
Aston Villa 3-1 Brentford: Rogers wondergoal helps snap winless streak
Morgan Rogers' superb goal set Aston Villa on their way to a commanding 3-1 home victory over Brentford, ending their eight-match winless streak in all competitions.
Rogers, Ollie Watkins and Matty Cash were all on target in a 13-minute flurry of goals in the first half that proved decisive at Villa Park.
An impressive victory saw Unai Emery's side end their alarming recent run of form, which had included collecting just two points from their last five Premier League games.
A long-range strike from Rogers midway through the first half broke the deadlock, and Watkins swiftly doubled the lead with a penalty kick he had won himself.
Cash's thumping volley stretched the advantage further, with Mikkel Damsgaard's early second-half strike only proving to be a consolation for Brentford, who continue to struggle away from home.
The hosts return to the Premier League's top half in seventh place on 22 points – two more than Thomas Frank's side, who slip to ninth.
Data Debrief: Villa end drought as Bees' tricky travels continue
Emery was in danger of overseeing a nine-match winless streak for the first time in his managerial career.
However, Villa ensured that would not be the case with a clinical first-half display. Watkins was on target for the fourth time in his last three appearances against his former club.
The hosts have now lost just one of their last 12 league games at Villa Park, where Brentford have now failed to win in 10 league attempts.
Not only that, but just one of the Bees' 20 points this season have been registered away from home. Though a cause for concern, Frank's side are still well placed in the table.
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