Outside of the World Cup and the Olympic Games, no sporting event commands attention quite like the Super Bowl.
The build-up to an opening kick-off witnessed by a cavalcade of television and smartphone cameras is a week-long celebration of North America's dominant professional sport, a seven-day period in which talking heads agonise over every storyline in the only game of the year that doubles as a de-facto national holiday in the United States.
On occasion, such storylines may be contrived in a bid to create excitement for a matchup that does not instantly capture the imagination. Yet the modern NFL is one spoilt by the number of captivating contenders that reside in the league, and commissioner Roger Goodell could not have asked for a more enticing Super Bowl clash than the one that will take place in Arizona on Sunday.
Indeed, the meeting between AFC Champions the Kansas City Chiefs and NFC Champions the Philadelphia Eagles is one positively teeming with storylines that make Super Bowl LVII a game worthy of the ceaseless hype it will receive before Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Co. settle matters on the field in their fight to secure the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Mahomes and Hurts are poised to make history with their duel at State Farm Stadium. Their matchup is the first in the Super Bowl between two black starting quarterbacks and, by the time the Chiefs and Eagles have taken the field, one of them will likely have been crowned as MVP — both are finalists for the league’s most prestigious individual honour, which will be announced at a ceremony in Phoenix on Thursday.
Theirs is a battle between a signal-caller who is by this point established as the gold standard of his generation, with a prospective second MVP for Mahomes just reward for a campaign in which he threw for 50 passing touchdowns and over 5,000 yards in the same season for the second time in his career, and a quarterback who seems to be in the midst of an unexpected rise to the elite after startling growth in his second full season as a starter.
Yet both head into the game with plenty to prove. Mahomes will consider it past time to end his wait for a second Super Bowl title after breaking the hearts of the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, while there will be many still questioning whether Hurts can excel against this calibre of opposition. The Eagles went 14-1 with him as the starter in the regular season but faced only six teams who finished the year with a winning record. So far in the postseason, they have blown out an overachieving New York Giants team and seen a mouth-watering NFC Championship Game with the 49ers reduced to a no-contest after injuries left San Francisco with no healthy quarterbacks.
But questions about the opposition Hurts has faced do nothing to detract from the quality of his overall play. He has performed extremely impressively as a deep-ball thrower, with his passer rating of 112.1 on passes of 21 air yards or more the fourth-best among quarterbacks with at least 25 such attempts. The Eagles have utilised Hurts’ running ability to devastating effect as he has rushed for 13 touchdowns, while the Philadelphia quarterback ranks fourth in yards over expected in true passing situations (among quarterbacks with at least 100 such throws).
Mahomes is second by the same measure, illustrating this game’s status as a legitimate matchup between two of the very best at the game’s most important position.
Both Mahomes and Hurts will depend heavily on a man named Kelce as they look to guide their team to glory, with Travis and Jason becoming the first brothers to play against each other in the Super Bowl. Tight end Travis Kelce became the undisputed top option in the Kansas City offense in the wake of the Tyreek Hill trade and added another hugely impressive season to a Hall of Fame resume.
His campaign featured 1,338 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns with his 19 receptions of at least 20 yards the most of any tight end and the seventh-most in the NFL. The impact of an offensive lineman can sometimes be less tangible, but no center in the league makes their presence as obvious as Jason Kelce, the engine to an Eagles line that ranks first in pass block win rate and second in run block win rate, according to Stats Perform data.
Both Kelce brothers were drafted by Andy Reid, Jason picked in 2011 when the 64-year-old was Eagles head coach, with Travis then selected in his first year in Kansas City in 2013, a tenure in Philadelphia defined by frustrating near-misses coming to an end in 2012.
Reid lost three successive NFC Championship Games with the Eagles between the 2001 and 2003 seasons before finally getting them to the Super Bowl in the 2004 campaign, with his time management skills vehemently criticised in a loss to the New England Patriots.
He got back to the NFC Championship Game one more time with Philadelphia in the 2008 season, but never did so again following a loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Though his triumph with the Chiefs four years ago will obviously have softened the pain of seeing the Eagles get over the hump without him in the 2017 campaign, a contest between a man who could never quite get job done in Philadelphia and a coach in Nick Sirianni who is a game away from winning the Super Bowl in his second season is a fascinating plot point in a heavyweight encounter.
Such will be the attention on messrs Mahomes, Hurts, Reid and the brothers Kelce that some of the critical battles on which the destination of the Lombardi could hinge may well fly under the radar.
Chief among them will be the fight in the trenches. Defensive Player of the Year contender Chris Jones has led the way for a Kansas City defensive line that has tallied 18 quarterback hits in the postseason, tied for the most among 2022 playoff teams. However, he and his team-mates up front will be tested not only in defeating the blocks of the Philadelphia offensive line but in tempering the aggressiveness by which Steve Spagnuolo's defense has come to be defined against a diverse Philadelphia ground game that is well-equipped to use it against Kansas City.
In comparison to Jones, Kansas City’s young secondary is an underrated aspect of the Chiefs’ roster. The Chiefs' defense ranks 11th in open percentage allowed, though the prospective return of cornerback L'Jarius Sneed from a head injury will be key to their hopes of limiting the impact of the Eagles' star receiver duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who rank 11th and 13th respectively in combined open percentage across man and zone coverage.
Sneed has lost just 22 of his 76-man coverage matchups. Only four players to have faced 75 such matchups have allowed a receiver to get open less often.
Stopping the Eagles is of course only half the battle for Kansas City and, for as frequently as 'Mahomes magic' has rescued the Chiefs, he cannot do it alone.
Encouragingly, the Chiefs rank ninth in rushing offense in Stats Perform's Efficiency Versus Expected metric and are going against an Eagles defense 21st by the same metric against the run.
The Eagles largely shut down the 49er run game in the NFC Championship Game, but that was primarily due to the fact the Philadelphia defense could focus solely on stopping the ground attack with the threat of the passing game removed.
With Philadelphia having played an offense that was reduced solely to running the ball, the Chiefs will have received an in-depth look at how the Eagles fit their defense to stop the rush, potentially improving their odds of finding weaknesses in that area and taking advantage of them.
Mahomes remains the primary weapon and most will expect and want to see a bewitching duel between and the top two MVP candidates. Yet the Super Bowl can throw up unexpected heroes and, though there are bonafide stars and storylines aplenty, the post-game tales could well be of the job the Eagles did on Jones, how rookie Isiah Pacheco gashed Philadelphia’s run defense or how Sneed and Jaylen Watson kept Brown and Smith at bay. There's plenty of intrigue beneath the surface in a potential all-time classic.
The Numbers Game: Man City need a win as Tottenham come to town
Manchester City are in uncharted territory ahead of Tottenham visiting the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola's all-conquering side, who have won four successive Premier League titles, have lost their last four matches in all competitions.
It is the first time in Guardiola's managerial career that he has lost four straight games in all competitions, while it is the first time City have lost that many in a row since 2006, when they lost six on the bounce under Stuart Pearce.
A 2-1 EFL Cup defeat to Tottenham at the end of October started City's poor form, and defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton followed.
With Liverpool continuing their fine form under Arne Slot, City head into the weekend five points behind the Reds.
Though with Liverpool not in action until Sunday, City can put the pressure back on by seeing off a Spurs team that lost 2-1 to Ipswich Town at home before the international break.
Here, we preview the clash using the best Opta data.
What's expected?
City have won just three of their last 10 Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive league meetings with them for the first time since April 2019.
Yet despite that indifferent form against Spurs, City are still made the big favourites by Opta's supercomputer, which ranks their chances of victory at 59.5%.
Spurs' win probability comes in at 20.2%, while the draw is at 20.3%.
City's form has seen them drop off when it comes to the Opta supercomputer's forecast for the season, with Liverpool now the favourites to win the title (60.2%).
This match should promise goals, though.
Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League away games against City, winning 3-2 in 2021-22, losing 4-2 in 2022-23 and drawing 3-3 last season. No team has ever scored multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League visits to the Etihad.
Under Guardiola (since 2016-17), City have lost more Premier League games (six) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Tottenham than they have against any other opponent.
Saturday's clash also sees two of the league's top three scoring teams this season go head-to-head. Spurs (23) have netted the most goals in the top tier, with City (22) joint-second alongside Brentford.
City have registered the highest xG (22.3), with Ange Postecoglou's team recording the second highest (21.7). These teams have had 401 shots between them across 22 matches this season, so expect entertainment.
Classic City, or is there something wrong?
There has been a tendency for City to take a while to get going in recent years, but they have never looked so short of form as they do now at this stage of a season.
Guardiola is on the longest losing run of his entire managerial career. Though they are the only team to have scored in every Premier League game so far this season, City have lost their last two (1-2 vs Bournemouth and Brighton). They last lost three in a row in the competition in February/March 2016, a run which included a home defeat to Tottenham.
City have already dropped seven points from winning positions this term, while they only dropped 10 from such positions across the entirety of last season.
They have gained a league-leading 13 points from losing positions, though that shows they are falling behind much more often than Guardiola would like.
The loss of Rodri to a season-ending knee injury has not helped, and City may have to dip into the market in January in search of a replacement.
Since the start of last season, City have played 13 league games without Rodri, and they have lost five of them. Their win rate without the Spaniard in the side in that time is 53.8%, while with him in the team it rises to 77.8%.
With Liverpool facing Southampton, City know they need to get back on track quickly, or they might simply have too big of a gap to bridge.
Road rage
Spurs have won just two of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L7), winning just once in five on the road this term. Since the start of this spell in March, no side have lost more Premier League away games than Tottenham (seven).
Postecoglou will not be changing his approach for this game, though. Spurs look to get forward at any opportunity, and the statistics back this up.
As a team, Tottenham have made more off-the-ball runs into the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (612), with Dominic Solanke having the most among players (138).
Spurs have also had the most shots inside the box of any Premier League side this term (134).
Tottenham have played more passes/crosses into the opposition box than any other side in the Premier League this season (429). There are 10 players in the division to have made 70+, with Spurs having three of those (Pedro Porro 96, James Maddison 77, Dejan Kulusevski 72).
Postecoglou promised Spurs fans a trophy this season, and their defeat of City in the EFL Cup was a big scalp, but in the league they have lost three of their last six games and are in 10th, though they are only three points off the top six.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City - Erling Haaland
Haaland netted a hat-trick for Norway this week, taking his tally for the season to 22 for club and country.
He returned to scoring form in the Premier League against Brighton, though City could not hold on for the win. While he may not have always shown his best level, Haaland is still betting at a remarkable rate of 1.1 goals per 90 minutes in the top flight this season.
Tottenham - Dejan Kulusevski
No player has created more chances either overall (30) or from open play (25) in the Premier League this season than Kulusevski.
His pace and skill on the counter could be a real asset against City's high line.
NFL: Texans bounce back, extend Cowboys' woes
Joe Mixon's 109 rushing yards and three touchdowns helped get the Houston Texans back on track with Monday's 34-10 win over the floundering Dallas Cowboys.
Houston (7-4) snapped a two-game losing streak behind Mixon's powerful running and a defence that sacked Cowboys' fill-in quarterback Cooper Rush five times and forced two turnovers, including a fumble Derek Barnett returned 28 yards for a touchdown that gave the Texans a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter.
Dallas (3-7) has now lost five straight, its longest skid since dropping seven in a row in 2015, and fell to 0-5 at home. The Cowboys have been outscored by 118 points (187-69) at AT&T Stadium, the third-largest negative differential through five home games in a season in NFL history.
Rush did throw a 64-yard touchdown pass to KaVontae Turpin in his second straight start subbing for an injured Dak Prescott, and finished with a career-high 354 passing yards with one interception while completing 32 of 55 attempts.
C.J. Stroud threw for 257 yards with an interception for Houston, which extended its lead over the second-place Indianapolis Colts to two games in the AFC South.
The Texans never trailed after Mixon ripped off a 45-yard touchdown run on the game's opening drive, and the veteran running back added a 1-yard scoring plunge late in the first quarter to give Houston a 14-0 lead.
Turpin got Dallas on the board by taking a short pass from Rush and breaking free from the Houston defence nine seconds into the second quarter, but the Cowboys were shut out in the second half after pulling to within 17-10 on Brandon Aubrey's 53-yard field goal with just under six minutes left before half-time.
Burnett's strip sack of Rush and return of the resulting fumble helped put the game away with 12:31 left, and Mixon tacked on his final touchdown of the night with 3:16 remaining to cap a 35-yard drive that began after the Texans stopped the Cowboys on downs.
Mahomes to use Chiefs' first loss of 2024 as 'spark'
Patrick Mahomes said the Kansas City Chiefs will use their first loss since Christmas Day 2023 as fuel after the Buffalo Bills halted their unbeaten start to the season.
Josh Allen scrambled for a stunning 26-yard touchdown with just over two minutes to play as the Bills improved to 9-2 with a 30-21 win over the reigning Super Bowl champions.
The result ended the Chiefs' 15-game winning streak, a run that began after they lost to the Los Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day last year and included their dramatic triumph over the San Francisco 49ers at Super Bowl LVIII.
The Chiefs had started this season 9-0 to take control of the race for the AFC's top seed, but they could have few complaints about Sunday's result.
The Bills outgained the Chiefs by 366 yards to 259, also recording 24 first downs to Kansas City's 19 and enjoying almost nine more minutes in possession.
Mahomes, however, was relaxed about the end of his team's winning streak, saying: "The undefeated thing was cool, but that's not our ultimate goal.
"It's a good football team, so there's nothing to hang your head about. We feel like we can play better, so we will get back to work and try to use this as a spark so that we can be a better football team in the end."
The Chiefs rank just 16th in the NFL for yards per game (337.9) and 11th for points per game (24) in 2024, with many of their victories – including against the Denver Broncos in Week 10 and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 – coming via last-gasp defensive or special teams plays.
Mahomes actually feels the team could benefit from a reality check, adding: "I'm hoping that [losing] is a benefit.
"I'm not going to say I or we are relaxed, but at the same time I feel like we were just coming away with these wins at the end of the games.
"I think it's going to spark us to have more urgency, especially at the start of football games, especially with the offense, and that comes from me and turning the ball over on the first drive. It's something you can't do in big games like this."
No quarterback has thrown more interceptions than Mahomes' 11 (level with Geno Smith and Jordan Love) this season, while a passer rating of 90.3 ranks him a lowly 20th among all players at the position.
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