The trophy every player in the NFL wants to lift will be hoisted in Arizona a week on Sunday, when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
On the preceding Thursday, a host of players and coaches will receive recognition for their individual efforts at the annual NFL Honors ceremony.
The candidates for the awards are furiously debated throughout each season, though this year the field has been trimmed for each prize with the NFL releasing list of finalists for the first time.
In the case of MVP, the top two candidates are the quarterbacks facing off in the Super Bowl, with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts also going head to head for the game's most illustrious award.
But who does Stats Perform's advanced data say should be the recipients of the prizes on offer at Symphony Hall in Phoenix? Here we name our award winners for 2022, including one not among the finalists who'll be on the red carpet next week.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Though these are regular-season awards, Mahomes' heroics on one leg in the AFC Championship Game were the perfect illustration of why he is the most valuable player in the league.
Even when physically impaired by a sprained ankle, Mahomes can produce magical plays through the air and on the ground in the biggest moments, and this season he has elevated a supporting cast shorn of the downfield threat of Tyreek Hill.
Only Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills averaged more yards over expected in true passing situations than Mahomes' 1.66 (minimum 100 such plays). Mahomes, though, had the edge in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82.1 per cent of his pass attempts, outperforming both Allen (79.7%) and Hurts (81).
Surpassing 5,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns in a single season for the second time in his career, Mahomes was the best regular-season player in the NFL in 2022, and the reality is it wasn't especially close.
Offensive Player of the Year: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders' acquisition of Adams in a blockbuster trade with the Packers did not produce the team results they desired in 2022, but individually his debut season with Las Vegas ranked as one of the finest of his career.
Adams' 14 receiving touchdowns led the NFL and, though his 1,516 receiving yards trailed Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill, his combined open percentage across man and zone coverage of 52.18 was superior to both Jefferson and Hill.
With 10 touchdown receptions of 20 yards or more in 2022, Adams was the NFL's most explosive receiving threat in a season where he once again reaffirmed his status as one of the finest route-runners of his generation. The Raiders may want to forget this season in a hurry, but Adams' campaign was one well worth remembering.
Defensive Player of the Year: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
This award will almost certainly go to Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers next week, but there's a strong case for Jones as a more impactful defender on a down-to-down basis in 2022.
Indeed, Jones' pass rush win rate of 58 per cent and his run defense win rate of 72.7 per cent outstrip those of Bosa, who finished a season in which he led the NFL in sacks (18.5) with a pass rush win rate of 51.4 per cent and 63.6 per cent run block win rate.
Like his quarterback, Jones shines when the situation is at its most pressurised, with his ability to create pass rush working on the interior and off the edge making him a ceaseless nightmare for opposing offensive lines. If the Chiefs are celebrating under confetti in Arizona next Sunday, Jones will likely have been a big reason why.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Sample size be damned! Purdy not only kept the 49ers afloat after Jimmy Garoppolo joined Trey Lance in heading to the sideline with a serious injury, but helped the offense improve as San Francisco won all five of his regular-season starts as part of a 10-game winning streak to end the 17-game campaign.
Albeit undoubtedly aided by the cavalcade of offensive talent at San Francisco's disposal and the play-calling of head coach Kyle Shanahan — Purdy threw to an open target on 84.7 per cent of his attempts — the last pick in the 2022 draft piloted at an offense that was remarkably efficient in expected passing situations.
Purdy averaged 1.2 yards over expected in true passing situations, fifth among quarterbacks with at least 100 such plays.
Other rookies may have played well for a longer period, but in terms of level of influence on his team's performance, no first year offensive player matches Purdy, who unfortunately now faces a long recovery after tearing an elbow ligament on the first offensive series of the Niners' NFC Championship Game loss in Philadelphia.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sauce Gardner, New York Jets
Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner backed up his ostentatious nickname by quickly establishing himself as one of the league's premier defenders and a lockdown corner at the highest level.
Gardner lost just 19 of his 92 matchups in man coverage and 24 of his 92 in zone. His combined open percentage allowed of 18.8 was bettered by only four defenders across the entire NFL.
In addition to his remarkably impressive coverage skills, Gardner showed a knack for finding the football in the air, registering a league-leading 20 pass breakups.
If he can improve on his interception tally of two, Gardner will be in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion in the coming years.
Comeback Player of the Year: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
From the forgotten man whose hopes of becoming a starter in the NFL looked to be over, to the most accurate quarterback in pro football.
Smith led all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 87.1 per cent, improbably guiding a Seahawks team that appeared to be rebuilding to a playoff berth.
The former New York Jet also had the best passer rating (125.8) on throws of at least 21 air yards among all signal-callers with at least 10 such attempts. Smith threw for 13 touchdowns and one interception on his 52 attempts of that distance.
Smith unexpectedly emerged as the answer at quarterback for the Seahawks in the wake of the Russell Wilson trade. With a better ecosystem around him in 2023, he could be the leading man for a true contender.
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Brian Daboll and Doug Pederson deserve a great deal of credit for transforming also-rans into playoff teams in short order, while Nick Sirianni's case is an extremely compelling one after turning the Eagles into the favourite to win the Super Bowl next week.
But for a combination of overcoming adversity and leading a Super Bowl-contending team, no coach can compete with Shanahan.
Shanahan calmly navigated his team through the stormy waters of losing not one by two starting quarterbacks during the regular season, putting Purdy in a position to succeed, with the rookie's readiness and the support he received from the NFL's best defense a testament to the 49er head coach's ability to assemble a top-tier staff.
Winning 13 games, 15 when counting the pair of playoff victories, in the circumstances the 49ers faced on offense is a remarkable achievement. San Francisco finished the season first in overall Efficiency Versus Expected, doing so after being forced to turn to Purdy is a feat worthy of Coach of the Year recognition.
Everton 0-0 Newcastle United: Pickford penalty heroics deny Goodison old boy Gordon
Everton old boy Anthony Gordon saw a penalty saved on his return to Goodison Park as Newcastle United were held to a 0-0 draw on Saturday.
Gordon had been Newcastle's spot-kick hero a week earlier, winning and converting a penalty to earn a point against Manchester City, but his failure this time cost the Magpies.
After James Tarkowski's foolish foul on Sandro Tonali gave Gordon, who left Everton for Newcastle in January 2023, his opportunity from 12 yards, he could not find a way past England team-mate Jordan Pickford.
The save from Pickford was heartily celebrated by the Everton fans, though their fury was directed at referee Craig Pawson midway through the second half, when Dominic Calvert-Lewin felt he too should have had a penalty.
Idrissa Gueye missed a huge chance as part of that incident, before Gordon was wasteful again late on as both sides were forced to settle for a point.
It nudges Sean Dyche's side further clear of the relegation zone, while Newcastle can at least take solace in a place in the top six.
Data Debrief: Gordon's Goodison nightmare
Gordon was at the centre of attention right from the outset, jeered by the Everton fans and on the end of a number of heavy challenges from his former team-mates. He won four fouls, more than any other player on the pitch.
So the Newcastle winger was clearly determined to provide a response when the visitors were awarded a penalty, stepping up as he had against City but this time denied by Pickford. This was Pickford's first Premier League penalty save since May 2023, ending a run of eight consecutive concessions against a man he knows so well from both club and international duty.
Gordon should have done better late on, too. He had only two shots, but they were worth a combined 0.87 xG – more than Everton's total of 0.73.
Manchester City 3-2 Fulham: Kovacic's brace helps champions keep pressure on Liverpool
Mateo Kovacic's brace helped Manchester City come from behind to beat Fulham 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium.
The former Chelsea midfielder struck either side of half-time, with Jeremy Doku also on target, to give Pep Guardiola's side their first win in three in the Premier League and keep the pressure on leaders Liverpool, who beat Crystal Palace earlier on Saturday.
City fell behind midway through the first half when Andreas Pereira volleyed in Raul Jimenez's back-heeled cross from close range, but Fulham passed up chances to add to their lead.
Kovacic's goals either side of half-time, and a clinching third from Doku ultimately made the visitors pay for their wastefulness, although substitute Rodrigo Muniz set up a nervy finish for the champions when he halved the deficit with two minutes to play.
City held on to stay second and move onto 17 points – one behind Liverpool – while Fulham remain sixth on 11 ahead of seventh-placed Newcastle United playing later in the day.
Data Debrief: 400 up for Walker as City hit half-century
In the second half, Kyle Walker sprinted on for his 400th Premier League appearance, becoming the 44th different player to hit the milestone.
His defensive efforts helped City equal their club record of 30 consecutive unbeaten Premier League games, while they are now 50 without defeat at home across all competitions - becoming only the fourth English top-flight side to achieve that feat.
However, they are now without a clean sheet in nine straight league games on home soil - equalling their club record - but Fulham could not take advantage, suffering their first defeat after scoring the opening goal in 20 matches.
Djokovic recovers from slow start to move past Michelsen on Shanghai return
Novak Djokovic marked his Shanghai Masters return with a hard-fought straight-sets win over Alex Michelsen.
The four-time champion, who is appearing in this event for the first time since 2019, required two tie-breaks before prevailing 7-6 (7-3) 7-6 (11-9) in just under two hours.
Djokovic, still donning a protective sleeve over his right knee, made a slow start in only his second match since losing to Alexei Popyrin in the US Open third round, winning just four points in the first three games as he fell 4-1 behind.
However, the 24-time major winner broke back in the seventh game before dominating the tie-break for first blood.
Roles were reversed in the second set as Michelsen cancelled out an earlier break in game seven.
However, the American squandered two set points to level and was eventually punished by Djokovic, who will play either 28th seed Flavio Cobolli or three-time major winner Stan Wawrinka in the next round.
Data Debrief: Djokovic continues American dominance
Djokovic was given an early scare, but his experience eventually showed as he came through.
Including team events, the Serb has now won his last 33 ATP-level matches against American opponents, with his last such defeat coming against Sam Querrey at Wimbledon in 2016.
The 24-time major winner also demonstrated his determination when the pressure intensified, and he has now come through 12 of his 16 tie-breaks played this season.
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