The trophy every player in the NFL wants to lift will be hoisted in Arizona a week on Sunday, when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
On the preceding Thursday, a host of players and coaches will receive recognition for their individual efforts at the annual NFL Honors ceremony.
The candidates for the awards are furiously debated throughout each season, though this year the field has been trimmed for each prize with the NFL releasing list of finalists for the first time.
In the case of MVP, the top two candidates are the quarterbacks facing off in the Super Bowl, with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts also going head to head for the game's most illustrious award.
But who does Stats Perform's advanced data say should be the recipients of the prizes on offer at Symphony Hall in Phoenix? Here we name our award winners for 2022, including one not among the finalists who'll be on the red carpet next week.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Though these are regular-season awards, Mahomes' heroics on one leg in the AFC Championship Game were the perfect illustration of why he is the most valuable player in the league.
Even when physically impaired by a sprained ankle, Mahomes can produce magical plays through the air and on the ground in the biggest moments, and this season he has elevated a supporting cast shorn of the downfield threat of Tyreek Hill.
Only Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills averaged more yards over expected in true passing situations than Mahomes' 1.66 (minimum 100 such plays). Mahomes, though, had the edge in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82.1 per cent of his pass attempts, outperforming both Allen (79.7%) and Hurts (81).
Surpassing 5,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns in a single season for the second time in his career, Mahomes was the best regular-season player in the NFL in 2022, and the reality is it wasn't especially close.
Offensive Player of the Year: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders' acquisition of Adams in a blockbuster trade with the Packers did not produce the team results they desired in 2022, but individually his debut season with Las Vegas ranked as one of the finest of his career.
Adams' 14 receiving touchdowns led the NFL and, though his 1,516 receiving yards trailed Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill, his combined open percentage across man and zone coverage of 52.18 was superior to both Jefferson and Hill.
With 10 touchdown receptions of 20 yards or more in 2022, Adams was the NFL's most explosive receiving threat in a season where he once again reaffirmed his status as one of the finest route-runners of his generation. The Raiders may want to forget this season in a hurry, but Adams' campaign was one well worth remembering.
Defensive Player of the Year: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
This award will almost certainly go to Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers next week, but there's a strong case for Jones as a more impactful defender on a down-to-down basis in 2022.
Indeed, Jones' pass rush win rate of 58 per cent and his run defense win rate of 72.7 per cent outstrip those of Bosa, who finished a season in which he led the NFL in sacks (18.5) with a pass rush win rate of 51.4 per cent and 63.6 per cent run block win rate.
Like his quarterback, Jones shines when the situation is at its most pressurised, with his ability to create pass rush working on the interior and off the edge making him a ceaseless nightmare for opposing offensive lines. If the Chiefs are celebrating under confetti in Arizona next Sunday, Jones will likely have been a big reason why.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Sample size be damned! Purdy not only kept the 49ers afloat after Jimmy Garoppolo joined Trey Lance in heading to the sideline with a serious injury, but helped the offense improve as San Francisco won all five of his regular-season starts as part of a 10-game winning streak to end the 17-game campaign.
Albeit undoubtedly aided by the cavalcade of offensive talent at San Francisco's disposal and the play-calling of head coach Kyle Shanahan — Purdy threw to an open target on 84.7 per cent of his attempts — the last pick in the 2022 draft piloted at an offense that was remarkably efficient in expected passing situations.
Purdy averaged 1.2 yards over expected in true passing situations, fifth among quarterbacks with at least 100 such plays.
Other rookies may have played well for a longer period, but in terms of level of influence on his team's performance, no first year offensive player matches Purdy, who unfortunately now faces a long recovery after tearing an elbow ligament on the first offensive series of the Niners' NFC Championship Game loss in Philadelphia.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sauce Gardner, New York Jets
Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner backed up his ostentatious nickname by quickly establishing himself as one of the league's premier defenders and a lockdown corner at the highest level.
Gardner lost just 19 of his 92 matchups in man coverage and 24 of his 92 in zone. His combined open percentage allowed of 18.8 was bettered by only four defenders across the entire NFL.
In addition to his remarkably impressive coverage skills, Gardner showed a knack for finding the football in the air, registering a league-leading 20 pass breakups.
If he can improve on his interception tally of two, Gardner will be in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion in the coming years.
Comeback Player of the Year: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
From the forgotten man whose hopes of becoming a starter in the NFL looked to be over, to the most accurate quarterback in pro football.
Smith led all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 87.1 per cent, improbably guiding a Seahawks team that appeared to be rebuilding to a playoff berth.
The former New York Jet also had the best passer rating (125.8) on throws of at least 21 air yards among all signal-callers with at least 10 such attempts. Smith threw for 13 touchdowns and one interception on his 52 attempts of that distance.
Smith unexpectedly emerged as the answer at quarterback for the Seahawks in the wake of the Russell Wilson trade. With a better ecosystem around him in 2023, he could be the leading man for a true contender.
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Brian Daboll and Doug Pederson deserve a great deal of credit for transforming also-rans into playoff teams in short order, while Nick Sirianni's case is an extremely compelling one after turning the Eagles into the favourite to win the Super Bowl next week.
But for a combination of overcoming adversity and leading a Super Bowl-contending team, no coach can compete with Shanahan.
Shanahan calmly navigated his team through the stormy waters of losing not one by two starting quarterbacks during the regular season, putting Purdy in a position to succeed, with the rookie's readiness and the support he received from the NFL's best defense a testament to the 49er head coach's ability to assemble a top-tier staff.
Winning 13 games, 15 when counting the pair of playoff victories, in the circumstances the 49ers faced on offense is a remarkable achievement. San Francisco finished the season first in overall Efficiency Versus Expected, doing so after being forced to turn to Purdy is a feat worthy of Coach of the Year recognition.
Browns quarterback Watson won't play vs. Ravens due to shoulder injury
The Cleveland Browns will be without Deshaun Watson for their game against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday because of an injured right shoulder.
With Watson out, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make his first NFL start in this key AFC North matchup.
Watson hurt his shoulder in last Sunday's 27-3 win over the Tennessee Titans, and was limited in practice all week.
He warmed up before Cleveland's game against visiting Baltimore, but was ultimately ruled out.
Watson is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 289 yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions after throwing two TD passes and two picks in Cleveland's first two games of the season.
His absence means the Browns may lean more on the ground game and running back Jerome Ford, though he rushed for just 18 yards on 10 carries last Sunday in his first start following Nick Chubb's season-ending injury.
Thompson-Robinson is a fifth-round draft pick out of UCLA, and appeared in five plays against the Titans, but has yet to attempt a pass.
The Browns and Ravens are each 2-1, and enter Week 4 tied atop the AFC North with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Raiders rule out Garoppolo for game against Chargers due to concussion
The Las Vegas Raiders have ruled Jimmy Garoppolo out for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Chargers because of a concussion.
Who gets the start at quarterback is still uncertain less than 24 hours before kickoff.
Garoppolo practised on a limited basis Thursday and Friday but has not cleared the league's concussion protocol and Las Vegas announced Saturday night that he would not play.
The Raiders did not say who would start between veteran Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell.
Garoppolo played every snap in last Sunday's 23-18 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but was evaluated for a concussion afterward.
The concussion is the latest setback for the 31-year-old Garoppolo, who has struggled to stay healthy over the past several seasons.
Las Vegas signed Garoppolo to a three-year, $67.5 million contract in March, including $34 million guaranteed, but the 10-year veteran is off to a shaky start with his new team. He has thrown for 709 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions for the 1-2 Raiders.
Hoyer is a 15-year veteran and is 16-24 in 40 career starts. In 77 career games, the 37-year-old has thrown for 10,668 yards with 53 TDs and 35 interceptions.
The Raiders also said starting cornerback Nate Hobbs won't play because of an injured ankle, while running back Brandon Bolden is expected to play despite not travelling with the team to Los Angeles because of a personal reason.
Raiders release defensive end Chandler Jones after arrest
The Las Vegas Raiders released Chandler Jones on Saturday, less than 48 hours after the defensive end’s arrest.
The club confirmed the move with a post on social media.
Jones, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, has been away from the team since before this season after a flurry of social media posts criticising the team’s leadership. He was placed on the non-football injury/illness list on Sept. 20.
Jones was in the second season of a three-year, $51million contract.
Jones’ arrest was the latest in a series of concerning developments that led to the Raiders cutting ties with the veteran sack artist.
Jones said on social media Monday that he had been hospitalised and taken to a behavioural health facility “against my will.”
The 33-year-old continued his concerning and bizarre social media activity throughout the week, including multiple live videos.
In one video, Jones spoke about a variety of topics for about 25 minutes before breaking down in tears while discussing the death of former teammate Aaron Hernandez.
Jones has since deleted those posts and said that his account had been hacked.
Early Friday morning, Vegas-area police arrested Jones on accusations of violating a domestic violence temporary restraining order. He was detained at the Clark County Detention Center before paying his $15,000 bail.
There has been a wave of growing concern about Jones’ mental health, given his erratic behaviour.
After Jones’ arrest, the Raiders posted a statement on social media saying they are “hopeful that Chandler Jones receives the care that he needs. He, his family, and all those involved are in our thoughts. As this is now a legal matter, we will not be providing further comment.”
Jones has 112 career sacks over 11 seasons with the New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals and Raiders.
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