NFL

NFL Fantasy Picks: Time to turn to rookie QB?

By Sports Desk December 21, 2022

As in the NFL, not every team maintains an active interest in fantasy football at this stage in the year.

But for those who still have title hopes, there is no room for error.

Finding an edge can be tricky as franchises outside the playoff picture wind down for the year and the league's leading lights think about resting up for the postseason.

But Stats Perform has picked out four players and a defense that could make the difference in Week 16.

Quarterback: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders

Nobody – at least nobody still in contention now – had any real interest in Purdy at the start of the year as he was the 49ers' third-choice QB, but that means he remains available in a number of leagues. It may well be time to fix that, with Purdy one of the outstanding performers across Weeks 14 and 15.

Josh Allen alone threw more touchdown passes (five to Purdy's four) without throwing an interception, while the rookie's 8.55 yards per pass attempt ranked third. Purdy was the sole QB in the NFL with a passer rating of at least 115.0 in two starts over this period. In fact, Aaron Rodgers is the only other player in league history to have had such a passer rating in his first two career starts.

Purdy is an obvious option for any fantasy player suffering QB woe, with the 49ers having clinched the NFC West but unlikely to slow too much as they hunt down the Minnesota Vikings and the second seed in the NFC.

Running Back: Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Gardner Minshew would be another popular pick at QB, with Jalen Hurts injured, but the Philadelphia Eagles still have not ruled out their MVP candidate. On the other hand, the Colts have shut down Jonathan Taylor for the year.

However, Indy would be wise to press on with the run game against the Chargers; only the Packers (42.9 per cent) have allowed opponents greater success on run plays this year than the Chargers (42.5 per cent).

That should mean plenty of touches again for Moss, who had 24 carries last week – as many as he had across the rest of the year combined.

Wide Receiver: Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins

The Packers' season never really got going, with Aaron Rodgers unable to make his receiving corps work without the departed Davante Adams.

But Watson, who had just 14 targets through nine weeks, has really come to the fore of late. Since Week 10, Watson has seven receiving TDs – leading the league ahead of Adams (five) – and has converted 17 of his 19 receptions into first downs.

Over the past two weeks, only two defenses have given up more receiving yards (671) and more receiving TDs (five) than Miami. They have also tied the Detroit Lions in allowing a league-worst 32 receiving first downs in this time.

Tight End: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets

Engram has been a steady performer in his first year with the Jaguars, but there is reason to believe he may be able to move to another level now as Trevor Lawrence ignites this Jacksonville offense.

Over the past two weeks, the Jags rank second in net passing yards (679) and lead the way for TD passes (seven) and points (76).

Engram caught two of those TDs and has led the team in targets (25), catches (19) and receiving yards (224) over this period. He and those who can call on him for fantasy purposes are among the chief beneficiaries of Lawrence's late surge.

Defense/Special Teams: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals

Opposition teams have been successful on only 36.5 per cent of plays against the Buccaneers this year, making this the league's sixth-best defense.

And now they will be faced with a Cardinals offense manned by third-string QB Trace McSorley, who is in line for his first career start despite struggling badly from his limited snaps so far this year.

McSorley has not thrown a single TD pass in 2022 but has tossed three picks, completing only 15 of his 29 pass attempts for an atrocious passer rating of 29.5.

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  • Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta

    Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.

    The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.

    That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.

    Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.

    “I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.

    “What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”

    On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.

    “I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”

    Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Wolves – Matheus Cunha

    Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).

    Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

    Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.

    MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN

    Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).

    Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.

    Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.

    Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Wolves – 21.5%

    Arsenal – 51.2%

    Draw – 27.3%

  • Fulham v Liverpool: Klopp unconcerned by Salah's scoring form Fulham v Liverpool: Klopp unconcerned by Salah's scoring form

    Jurgen Klopp is not overly worried by Mohamed Salah’s slight dip in form, as the Liverpool manager turned full focus to the Reds’ Premier League title challenge.

    A bad week for Liverpool was capped off on Thursday when, despite a 1-0 win over Atalanta, they slumped out of the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate following a heavy defeat at Anfield in the first leg.

    That loss on April 11 came three days before a 1-0 home reverse to Crystal Palace, which saw Liverpool’s league title hopes take a dent – they are now two points behind Manchester City with six games remaining.

    What has not helped their course is that talisman Salah – who netted an early penalty against Atalanta but squandered a big chance later in the match – has scored just three times in the league since returning from a hamstring injury he sustained while playing for Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations in January.

    Klopp, though, is confident Salah will soon be back at his best.

    “I am not particularly concerned,” he said ahead of facing Fulham.

    “That’s what strikers do, that’s what happens to strikers, that’s how it is. We have to go through this, he has to go through that. He is one of the most experienced players we have in the squad.

    “We will go through that but that’s pretty much all. It’s not that Mo didn’t miss chances before in his life, that’s a part of the game. I am not particularly concerned.”

    Reflecting on the task at hand now for his side, Klopp added: “Disappointed that we did not go through [in Europe] but not frustrated or angry.

    “Now we can focus on the league and that’s what we will do. We have a few days to recover, we will do that, and then will travel the day after tomorrow to London and will play Fulham, which will be tricky but we will give our absolute all.

    “That’s our competition now. I saw a good reaction from my side, we had not a great week last week obviously. This, if we want, was the start for the rest of the season with a good result and a good performance and that’s how we see it.”

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Fulham – Andreas Pereira

    Pereira has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances (two goals, two assists), with his brace against West Ham more than he had netted in his previous 34 games combined (one).

    Indeed, Pereira has more goal involvements than any other Fulham player since the start of last season (seven goals, 13 assists).

    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah may not be firing on all cylinders from a goalscoring perspective, but he is proving to be Liverpool’s creative hub.

    Only Martin Odegaard (68) and Bruno Fernandes (59) have created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Salah (58). He has created at least four open-play chances in five different games this season, with Roberto Firmino the last Liverpool player to do so more times in one season (10 in 2016-17).

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

    The Reds might have had a bad week, but Opta’s model still fancies their chances of returning to winning ways.

    Liverpool have scored in each of their last 19 away Premier League matches, the longest current run of any side. That being said, since losing 3-0 to Brentford in their first home Premier League game this season, Fulham have conceded just 13 goals in their last 15 games at Craven Cottage (0.9 per game). With six clean sheets at home so far, the Cottagers last had more in a Premier League campaign in 2010-11 (nine).

    Marco Silva’s team have scored 49 Premier League goals this season, having netted 55 last season. The last time the Cottagers scored 50+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons was in 2003-04 (52) and 2004-05 (52).

    However, Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L8), winning 1-0 at Anfield in March 2021.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Fulham – 20.85%

    Liverpool – 53.1%

    Draw – 26.1%

  • Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion

    Nashville SC coach Gary Smith is not looking forward to his team facing Lionel Messi for the third time this year, with the Inter Miami star fit and firing ahead of Saturday's MLS clash in Fort Lauderdale.

    A hamstring issue caused Messi to spend almost a month on the sidelines before he returned with a goal in Miami's 2-2 draw with the Colorado Rapids earlier this month.

    The Argentina great was then on the scoresheet again last weekend, as Miami ended a five-game winless run with an entertaining 3-2 success against Sporting Kansas City.

    With Messi also scoring in both legs of a CONCACAF Champions Cup triumph over Nashville in March, Smith is sick of the sight of the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner.

    "I'm a little bit disappointed that Lionel Messi has gotten himself back into tip-top sharp form as we come back into town again!" Smith said.

    "I think that what we can safely say is when he's in the group, there's a very, very different feel and look and inspiration about that team."

    Nashville are winless in three games since beating Charlotte FC 2-1 last month, with Daniel Gazdag's last-gasp strike condemning them to a 2-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Union last time out.

    Smith believes his team are at least giving themselves a chance of picking up results, adding: "When we've got our best group on the field — and we need to have our best group on the field — we're very competitive."

    Miami's win over Kansas City ensured they will enter the weekend top of the Eastern Conference standings, and boss Gerardo Martino is pleased to see them setting the pace.

    "Being first in the standings is comforting, especially with a long week ahead," Martino said. "It was very important for us to get out of that rut of getting ties, losses, and making mistakes."

     

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Inter Miami – Lionel Messi

    Messi has been involved in at least one goal in each of his first five league games of the season, the second time he's done so in his career, having achieved the feat in six straight matches with Barcelona to begin 2013-14 in LaLiga.

    The Argentine has also managed at least one goal involvement in each of his eight appearances for Miami across all competitions in 2024, including two goals and one assist in two matches against Nashville.

    Nashville SC – Jacob Shaffelburg

    Shaffelburg has assisted each of Nashville's last two MLS goals, one in each of their last two matches.

    Previously, he had only recorded one assist in his first 40 regular-season matches with Nashville. Will his purple patch continue in Florida?

    MATCH PREDICTION – INTER MIAMI WIN

    Nashville have only managed one win in their last 15 away games against MLS opponents across all competitions (six draws, eight defeats).

    That run, which stretches back to June 2023, includes a draw and a loss against Miami, who are also unbeaten in five straight head-to-head meetings between the teams (two wins, three draws).

    Last week's 3-2 win over Sporting KC was the 11th time Miami have scored three or more goals in their 22 games with Messi making an appearance, across all competitions. They have only scored three or more goals on 15 occasions in their 134 all-time games without the Argentine. He should be involved on Saturday, and that makes them favourites. 

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Inter Miami – 36.6%

    Nashville SC – 33.8%

    Draw – 29.6%

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