No journey to the Super Bowl is ever linear. Ever since the Miami Dolphins achieved football perfection in 1972, every team that has climbed the mountain has had to experience some kind of bump in the road, and any team that harbours ambitions of adding their name to the list must show an ability to win in different ways and prevail when one side of the ball misfires.
The 2022 San Francisco 49ers have hit several bumps in the road. From a Week 1 loss to the Chicago Bears in a monsoon, to losing the anointed quarterback of the future, Trey Lance, to a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 and suffering back-to-back losses to the Atlanta Falcons and the Kansas City Chiefs, the latter of which saw them ship 44 points, there have been plenty of points this season where belief in the 49ers as the Super Bowl contenders has been tested.
But San Francisco's response to the blowout Week 7 loss to the Chiefs has been emphatic and has reaffirmed the 49ers' status as a heavyweight in the NFC.
The 49ers have reeled off four successive victories to surge to 7-4 and, if the season ended today, would win the NFC West and enter the playoffs as an extremely dangerous third seed.
Two of those four wins have been blowouts, San Francisco marrying devastating offense from a group overflowing with playmakers following the October trade for Christian McCaffrey with tremendous defensive fortitude to destroy a pair of NFC West rivals in the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals on the road.
Even with the level of star talent they have at their disposal, the 49ers' offense has not been consistent. A continuing theme of their recent dominance has been DeMeco Ryans' defense, which reached its 2022 zenith to this point on Sunday with a shutout 13-0 win over the New Orleans Saints.
It was a performance that served as an encapsulation of why Ryans is likely to be the premier head coaching candidate this offseason and one that should serve to raise the question of whether his defense is one that could be among the select few that carries its team to Super Bowl glory.
The numbers point heavily to the 49er defense being of that standard.
San Francisco's shutout was the Niners' first since they beat Washington 9-0 in the 2019 season, and it was the first suffered by the Saints since Week 17 of the 2001 season. The 49ers were the team to dole out the shutout on that occasion in a 38-0 win.
While it was a 20-year low point for the Saints on offense, for the 49ers it was a continuation of an eye-opening run of defensive obduracy. The Niners have now pitched four consecutive shutouts in the second half, also keeping the Rams, Los Angeles Chargers and Cardinals off the board in the final two quarters. Achieving the feat for four quarters against the Saints, they have now not conceded a point in over 94 minutes of game action.
The 49ers' refusal to let the Saints avoid drawing a blank was made more amazing by the fact New Orleans had six plays from inside San Francisco's five-yard line, and the season-long defensive numbers for the Niners paint the picture of the defiance shown by Ryans' group that could well come to define their season.
San Francisco's defense ranks first in points per game allowed, yards per game allowed, rush yards per game allowed, yards per rush allowed, first downs per game allowed and passing touchdowns allowed.
Simply put, this is a defense that can shut down anything an opposing offense does well, and it has multiple means by which it can do so.
The 49ers have the sixth-highest sack rate in the NFL at 7.9 per cent but have a blitz rate of 28.7 per cent that is below the league average of 30.8 per cent, those numbers speaking to San Francisco's long-established ability to get home by only sending four pass rushers from their exceptionally deep defensive line.
Nick Bosa, the star of that front, recorded the fourth-down sack that essentially ensured the Saints would not score in Week 12, taking his tally for the year to 11.5.
Bosa is the fifth player since 2000 to record at least one sack in nine of his first 10 games of a season, joining Hugh Douglas (2000), Everson Griffen (2017), Robert Mathis (2005) and Demarcus Ware (2008).
Yet the Niners have also made a habit of sending successful blitzes at the right time, with linebacker Fred Warner and safety Talanoa Hufanga – who each forced fumbles on Sunday – proving adept at generating pressure when rushing from the second level of the defense.
Hufanga's physicality jarred a fumble from Alvin Kamara at the one-yard line in the first of two fourth-quarter red zone stops against New Orleans, the former fifth-round pick emerging as a star in a secondary that has duplicity to frustrate teams with precise and disciplined zone coverage and facilitate blitzes by succeeding when it pivots to man coverage, with cornerback Charvarius Ward, the 49ers' headline free agency acquisition, excelling in both areas.
As with many defenses around the NFL, the 49ers rely heavily on two-high safety zone coverages; however, they have used Cover 1 man on 13.35 per cent of defensive snaps, well above the league average of 10.64 per cent. When using that coverage, they have given up 5.22 yards per play, over a yard fewer than the league average of 6.58.
In essence, the personnel Ryans has at his disposal allows him to easily switch between the staple of a four-man rush with zone coverage behind it and a more aggressive approach at any point and still have complete confidence his defense will deliver.
Though blitzes are not an overly common feature of the game plan, San Francisco's underpinning defensive philosophy is all about aggression, which is evident throughout when Ryans' players are on the field, their relentless pursuit of the football critical to the 49ers' incredible success against the run – opponents have gained only 3.1 yards per play on the ground versus San Francisco – and game-sealing turnovers such as Kamara's goal-line fumble.
That defensive violence ensured San Francisco did not follow the 49ers' offensive fireshow against the Cardinals in Mexico City with a letdown even as that attack sputtered in comparison to its efforts at Estadio Azteca.
Fast, physical, disciplined and diverse with the players at every level to consistently dominate, the 2022 49ers defense has all the ingredients of a championship unit and proved it can carry the load in ensuring San Francisco won in a very different way in Week 12 following the blowout of Week 11.
With Jimmy Garoppolo playing some of the best football of his career, after sticking around to back up Lance in a prescient move by both player and franchise, and blessed with a skill-position group that features McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, the hope will be the defense will not have to shoulder the burden on a regular basis. But this four-game stretch has proven unequivocally that it can do so, and that is an excellent insurance policy for the 49ers as they plot a path to a second Super Bowl appearance in four seasons.
Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.
The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.
That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.
Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.
“I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.
“What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”
On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.
“I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”
Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Wolves – Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.
MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN
Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).
Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.
Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Wolves – 21.5%
Arsenal – 51.2%
Draw – 27.3%
Fulham v Liverpool: Klopp unconcerned by Salah's scoring form
Jurgen Klopp is not overly worried by Mohamed Salah’s slight dip in form, as the Liverpool manager turned full focus to the Reds’ Premier League title challenge.
A bad week for Liverpool was capped off on Thursday when, despite a 1-0 win over Atalanta, they slumped out of the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate following a heavy defeat at Anfield in the first leg.
That loss on April 11 came three days before a 1-0 home reverse to Crystal Palace, which saw Liverpool’s league title hopes take a dent – they are now two points behind Manchester City with six games remaining.
What has not helped their course is that talisman Salah – who netted an early penalty against Atalanta but squandered a big chance later in the match – has scored just three times in the league since returning from a hamstring injury he sustained while playing for Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations in January.
Klopp, though, is confident Salah will soon be back at his best.
“I am not particularly concerned,” he said ahead of facing Fulham.
“That’s what strikers do, that’s what happens to strikers, that’s how it is. We have to go through this, he has to go through that. He is one of the most experienced players we have in the squad.
“We will go through that but that’s pretty much all. It’s not that Mo didn’t miss chances before in his life, that’s a part of the game. I am not particularly concerned.”
Reflecting on the task at hand now for his side, Klopp added: “Disappointed that we did not go through [in Europe] but not frustrated or angry.
“Now we can focus on the league and that’s what we will do. We have a few days to recover, we will do that, and then will travel the day after tomorrow to London and will play Fulham, which will be tricky but we will give our absolute all.
“That’s our competition now. I saw a good reaction from my side, we had not a great week last week obviously. This, if we want, was the start for the rest of the season with a good result and a good performance and that’s how we see it.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Fulham – Andreas Pereira
Pereira has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances (two goals, two assists), with his brace against West Ham more than he had netted in his previous 34 games combined (one).
Indeed, Pereira has more goal involvements than any other Fulham player since the start of last season (seven goals, 13 assists).
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah may not be firing on all cylinders from a goalscoring perspective, but he is proving to be Liverpool’s creative hub.
Only Martin Odegaard (68) and Bruno Fernandes (59) have created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Salah (58). He has created at least four open-play chances in five different games this season, with Roberto Firmino the last Liverpool player to do so more times in one season (10 in 2016-17).
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
The Reds might have had a bad week, but Opta’s model still fancies their chances of returning to winning ways.
Liverpool have scored in each of their last 19 away Premier League matches, the longest current run of any side. That being said, since losing 3-0 to Brentford in their first home Premier League game this season, Fulham have conceded just 13 goals in their last 15 games at Craven Cottage (0.9 per game). With six clean sheets at home so far, the Cottagers last had more in a Premier League campaign in 2010-11 (nine).
Marco Silva’s team have scored 49 Premier League goals this season, having netted 55 last season. The last time the Cottagers scored 50+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons was in 2003-04 (52) and 2004-05 (52).
However, Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L8), winning 1-0 at Anfield in March 2021.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Fulham – 20.85%
Liverpool – 53.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion
Nashville SC coach Gary Smith is not looking forward to his team facing Lionel Messi for the third time this year, with the Inter Miami star fit and firing ahead of Saturday's MLS clash in Fort Lauderdale.
A hamstring issue caused Messi to spend almost a month on the sidelines before he returned with a goal in Miami's 2-2 draw with the Colorado Rapids earlier this month.
The Argentina great was then on the scoresheet again last weekend, as Miami ended a five-game winless run with an entertaining 3-2 success against Sporting Kansas City.
With Messi also scoring in both legs of a CONCACAF Champions Cup triumph over Nashville in March, Smith is sick of the sight of the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner.
"I'm a little bit disappointed that Lionel Messi has gotten himself back into tip-top sharp form as we come back into town again!" Smith said.
"I think that what we can safely say is when he's in the group, there's a very, very different feel and look and inspiration about that team."
Nashville are winless in three games since beating Charlotte FC 2-1 last month, with Daniel Gazdag's last-gasp strike condemning them to a 2-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Union last time out.
Smith believes his team are at least giving themselves a chance of picking up results, adding: "When we've got our best group on the field — and we need to have our best group on the field — we're very competitive."
Miami's win over Kansas City ensured they will enter the weekend top of the Eastern Conference standings, and boss Gerardo Martino is pleased to see them setting the pace.
"Being first in the standings is comforting, especially with a long week ahead," Martino said. "It was very important for us to get out of that rut of getting ties, losses, and making mistakes."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Inter Miami – Lionel Messi
Messi has been involved in at least one goal in each of his first five league games of the season, the second time he's done so in his career, having achieved the feat in six straight matches with Barcelona to begin 2013-14 in LaLiga.
The Argentine has also managed at least one goal involvement in each of his eight appearances for Miami across all competitions in 2024, including two goals and one assist in two matches against Nashville.
Nashville SC – Jacob Shaffelburg
Shaffelburg has assisted each of Nashville's last two MLS goals, one in each of their last two matches.
Previously, he had only recorded one assist in his first 40 regular-season matches with Nashville. Will his purple patch continue in Florida?
MATCH PREDICTION – INTER MIAMI WIN
Nashville have only managed one win in their last 15 away games against MLS opponents across all competitions (six draws, eight defeats).
That run, which stretches back to June 2023, includes a draw and a loss against Miami, who are also unbeaten in five straight head-to-head meetings between the teams (two wins, three draws).
Last week's 3-2 win over Sporting KC was the 11th time Miami have scored three or more goals in their 22 games with Messi making an appearance, across all competitions. They have only scored three or more goals on 15 occasions in their 134 all-time games without the Argentine. He should be involved on Saturday, and that makes them favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Inter Miami – 36.6%
Nashville SC – 33.8%
Draw – 29.6%
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