Sometimes in fantasy football, there's one game that proves a bonanza for managers who invested in players from the teams involved.
Anyone who had Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Derek Carr or Davante Adams in their lineup for Monday's game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders can attest to that.
A week earlier, those who happened to go with players from the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions were likely celebrating wildly as they shared 93 points in a remarkable shootout.
Forecasting such games can be difficult, but the Seahawks could be involved in another this weekend, and their Week 6 matchup features heavily in Stats Perform's fantasy picks.
Quarterback: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals' offense has been an extremely difficult watch so far in 2022, but a trip to Seattle to face the Seahawks represents an extremely favourable matchup.
Only the Detroit Lions (170) have allowed more points than the Seahawks (154) through five games, while Seattle's defense has given up a league-high 8.17 yards per pass play.
Murray has just one 300-yard passing game so far this year, but that seems almost certain to change against an opponent as porous as the Seahawks.
Running Back: Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns
Over the last three games, Stevenson has racked up 300 yards at an average of 5.88 yards per carry.
Ten of his carries in that time have gone for 10 yards or more. Only Nick Chubb of the Browns (13) has produced more such rushes in that time.
Stevenson and Chubb will both look to make an impact when the Patriots visit Cleveland and the former will be extremely confident going against a Browns defense that struggles to stop anybody on the ground, allowing 5.32 yards per rush.
Simply put, if you have Stevenson on your fantasy roster, you're starting him.
Wide Receiver: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Let's return to the NFC West matchup in the Pacific Northwest, in which there is little reason not to expect the Seahawks to put up points given they have scored 80 in their last two games and face another vulnerable defense here.
The Cardinals held the high-flying Eagles to 20 points but have allowed 6.86 yards per pass play, the eighth-most in the NFL.
Since Week 2, Lockett has 378 receiving yards, fewer than only four other players in that time. With Geno Smith delivering a well-thrown ball on 86.8 per cent of pass attempts, the second-best rate among quarterbacks with at least 100, the Seahawks going against Arizona's defense is a recipe for another big day for Lockett.
Tight End: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers
The Rams' offense is struggling, and the Panthers' defense is unquestionably the best aspect of their team. So, on the surface, picking out a Rams offensive player not named Cooper Kupp may seem a bemusing move.
But Higbee has been targeted 24 times over the course of the Rams' heavy defeats to the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys in the last two weeks, and he has caught 17 of those passes.
He is a considerable safety net for Matthew Stafford, who is again likely to face a heavy pass rush in this encounter. Going against a 1-4 Panthers team going across the country having just had their head coach fired, the opportunities Higbee will receive should make a valuable fantasy performance, especially in points per reception leagues.
Defense/Special Teams: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Buccaneers' hugely impressive defense, which has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.7) in the league, should feast on a lowly Steelers team that managed only three points last week in Buffalo.
Pittsburgh's rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett has four interceptions in just six quarters of play this season. The Buccaneers have forced nine turnovers, the fifth-most in the NFL. It's an easy decision to start Tampa's defense.
Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.
On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively.
It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.
Pep Guardiola's champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola's Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.
But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.
Unlucky losers: Arsenal
The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.
However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).
The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.
Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.
Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.
Lucky winners: Southampton
Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.
Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.
While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.
It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.
Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace
Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.
Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.
They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half.
With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.
There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.
Lucky winners: Chelsea
Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.
Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.
United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.
Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.
United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).
Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.
The Numbers Game: Can Van Nistelrooy get Man Utd back on track?
Erik ten Hag seemed doomed at Manchester United and the period after winning the FA Cup became, as expected, a stay of execution.
United sacked the Dutchman on Monday, placing his compatriot - and club great - Ruud van Nistelrooy in temporary charge.
They have moved swiftly to try and appoint a permanent successor, though, with Ruben Amorim of Sporting CP the target.
Amorim has promised to provide clarity over his future after Sporting's league game on Friday, but it does seem certain that Van Nistelrooy – who oversaw a 5-2 win over Leicester City in the EFL Cup on Wednesday – will be in charge for the visit of in-form Chelsea on Sunday.
United's two Premier League matches at Old Trafford against other Big Six sides this season did not go well for Ten Hag, with the Red Devils beaten 3-0 by both Liverpool and Tottenham.
But will it be different now he has gone?
What's expected?
United are unbeaten in their last 11 home league games against Chelsea (W5 D6) and are looking to win three in a row against the Blues at Old Trafford for the first time since January 1957.
But United have picked up just 11 points after nine Premier League matches this season (W3 D2 L4), which is their second-fewest ever total at this stage – only in 2019-20 did they have fewer points at this point (10).
They have only lost four of their opening nine Premier League games on two occasions, with both coming in the last two seasons under Ten Hag.
These sides last met in April, with Chelsea coming from behind to win a thriller 4-3 at Stamford Bridge. The Blues last won consecutive league meetings with the Red Devils in March 2011 (a run of three).
United vs Chelsea is the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 26 of the previous 64 meetings between the sides finishing level and the Opta supercomputer is forecasting a close encounter this time.
In 37.8% of the model's simulations, United came out on top. Chelsea were the winners in 37.3%, with the probability of a draw coming in at 24.9%.
A new era
Ten Hag lost 32% of his Premier League games in charge of United (27/85), the joint-highest percentage along with David Moyes (11/34).
Seven of his 27 defeats, meanwhile, came via stoppage-time winners, the highest percentage (26%) of any manager to lose 20+ games in Premier League history.
While Amorim looks likely to come in soon, this is a chance for Van Nistelrooy to get a much-needed feel-good factor back at Old Trafford. United are down in 14th, so they could do with a win.
Their five-goal haul in midweek was a timely boost, given that finishing chances has been such a big issue.
Only Southampton and Crystal Palace (six each) have scored fewer Premier League goals this season than United (eight).
United have underperformed their expected goals by 6.8 (xG of 14.8), the worst differential of any side in 2024-25. Since 2022-23, only Everton (-26) have underperformed their xG by more than United (-17-9 – 123 goals from an xG of 140.9).
All the young Blues
Scoring goals has not been an issue for Chelsea under Enzo Maresca.
The Blues have scored 19 goals in the league this term, which is a tally bettered only by league leaders Manchester City. Chelsea have also accumulated the third-highest xG in the league (17.3), behind Tottenham (17.7) and City (18.5).
But in their last away game in the league, Chelsea struggled to click into gear in attack and lost 2-1 to Liverpool.
Arne Slot's team are a step above United in terms of quality, but Maresca will want his side to take the game to their opponents at Old Trafford.
Maresca has gone with youth this season, so a fearless approach that has mostly been present in the league is perhaps no surprise.
Chelsea have named the youngest average starting XI in the Premier League this season (23 years, 206 days). In their 2-1 win over Newcastle, they became just the second team in Premier League history to not name a single outfield player aged 25+ in their starting XI for a match, after Aston Villa who did so in two games in 2013.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Man Utd - Bruno Fernandes
Against Leicester, Fernandes recorded his 150th and 151st goal involvements for Manchester United, becoming the seventh player overall to do so in Europe’s big five leagues in all competitions since his debut and first midfielder to do so.
Chelsea - Cole Palmer
Palmer has been directly involved in 33 Premier League goals for Chelsea in 2024 (21 goals, 12 assists). Only two players have had more goals and assists in a year for the Blues: Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink in 2001 (25 goals, 11 assists) and Didier Drogba in 2010 (22 goals, 13 assists).
He scored in both of Chelsea’s Premier League games against United last season, including a hat-trick in a 4-3 win at Stamford Bridge. The only Chelsea players to score in three consecutive Premier League games against them are Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (2000-2001) and Juan Mata (2012-2013).
Premier League MD9: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
The first managerial departure of the 2024-25 Premier League season has come, with Erik ten Hag leaving his role at Manchester United.
United's decision to dismiss Ten Hag came after the Red Devils slumped to a 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday, leaving them 14th in the table.
Elsewhere, Liverpool and Arsenal shared the spoils in a 2-2 draw, Manchester City downed Southampton, Chelsea beat Newcastle United and Brentford came out on top in a seven-goal thriller against Ipswich Town.
Late goals also ruled the roost this past weekend. There were five games to have a final result-altering goal scored in the 90th minute (or later) in the Premier League this weekend, the most across a single matchday in the competition's history.
But what do the underlying metrics tell us?
Unlucky losers: Fulham
Fulham took a point away from Goodison Park on Saturday, but Marco Silva thought his team deserved two more.
And it is fair to say Everton were largely second-best, with Beto's last-gasp equaliser sparring Sean Dyche's team.
Fulham, who took the lead through Alex Iwobi, registered 1.26 expected goals (xG) to Everton's 0.79 and had 14 shots to their hosts' 10. That being said, perhaps Silva's side only have themselves to blame - they converted only 7.14% of their shots and got only three attempts on target.
Lucky winners: Bournemouth
Evanilson's late header secured a 1-1 draw for Bournemouth at Aston Villa, and though the Cherries could point to some potential penalty decisions going against them, it is fair to say the metrics suggest they were fortunate to avoid defeat.
Only Southampton (0.21) mustered a lower xG than Bournemouth's 0.31 across the fixtures in the top flight this past weekend.
Villa, on the other hand, registered 1.81 xG - the fifth-highest total in the division across the games - while Mark Travers was exceptional in the Bournemouth goal.
He made seven saves to keep Villa at bay, bar Ross Barkley's opener. Indeed, Villa's 3.23 expected goals on target (xGoT) was more than any other team in matchweek nine, so Travers finished with a goals-prevented figure of 2.23.
Andoni Iraola's team certainly rode their luck.
Unlucky losers: Man Utd
Ten Hag's time is up, though the Dutchman was fuming about a contentious penalty decision that ultimately settled the match in West Ham's favour.
When discounting the xG from that penalty, West Ham finished with 2.21 xG - just less than United's 2.34.
United had 18 shots and five big chances (the second-most after Brentford across the weekend's matches), but failed to put those opportunities away, apart from Casemiro's close-range header.
The soft defence that plagued Ten Hag's tenure, though, ultimately came back to bite them yet again.
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
