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• The Numbers Game: Man City need a win as Tottenham come to town

  Manchester City are in uncharted territory ahead of Tottenham visiting the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.

  Pep Guardiola's all-conquering side, who have won four successive Premier League titles, have lost their last four matches in all competitions.

  It is the first time in Guardiola's managerial career that he has lost four straight games in all competitions, while it is the first time City have lost that many in a row since 2006, when they lost six on the bounce under Stuart Pearce.

  A 2-1 EFL Cup defeat to Tottenham at the end of October started City's poor form, and defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton followed.

  With Liverpool continuing their fine form under Arne Slot, City head into the weekend five points behind the Reds. 

  Though with Liverpool not in action until Sunday, City can put the pressure back on by seeing off a Spurs team that lost 2-1 to Ipswich Town at home before the international break.

  Here, we preview the clash using the best Opta data.

  What's expected?

  City have won just three of their last 10 Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive league meetings with them for the first time since April 2019.

  Yet despite that indifferent form against Spurs, City are still made the big favourites by Opta's supercomputer, which ranks their chances of victory at 59.5%.

  Spurs' win probability comes in at 20.2%, while the draw is at 20.3%.

   

  City's form has seen them drop off when it comes to the Opta supercomputer's forecast for the season, with Liverpool now the favourites to win the title (60.2%).

  This match should promise goals, though.

  Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League away games against City, winning 3-2 in 2021-22, losing 4-2 in 2022-23 and drawing 3-3 last season. No team has ever scored multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League visits to the Etihad.

  Under Guardiola (since 2016-17), City have lost more Premier League games (six) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Tottenham than they have against any other opponent.

  Saturday's clash also sees two of the league's top three scoring teams this season go head-to-head. Spurs (23) have netted the most goals in the top tier, with City (22) joint-second alongside Brentford.

  City have registered the highest xG (22.3), with Ange Postecoglou's team recording the second highest (21.7). These teams have had 401 shots between them across 22 matches this season, so expect entertainment.

   

  Classic City, or is there something wrong?

  There has been a tendency for City to take a while to get going in recent years, but they have never looked so short of form as they do now at this stage of a season.

  Guardiola is on the longest losing run of his entire managerial career. Though they are the only team to have scored in every Premier League game so far this season, City have lost their last two (1-2 vs Bournemouth and Brighton). They last lost three in a row in the competition in February/March 2016, a run which included a home defeat to Tottenham.

  City have already dropped seven points from winning positions this term, while they only dropped 10 from such positions across the entirety of last season.

  They have gained a league-leading 13 points from losing positions, though that shows they are falling behind much more often than Guardiola would like.

  The loss of Rodri to a season-ending knee injury has not helped, and City may have to dip into the market in January in search of a replacement.

  Since the start of last season, City have played 13 league games without Rodri, and they have lost five of them. Their win rate without the Spaniard in the side in that time is 53.8%, while with him in the team it rises to 77.8%. 

  With Liverpool facing Southampton, City know they need to get back on track quickly, or they might simply have too big of a gap to bridge.

  Road rage

  Spurs have won just two of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L7), winning just once in five on the road this term. Since the start of this spell in March, no side have lost more Premier League away games than Tottenham (seven).

  Postecoglou will not be changing his approach for this game, though. Spurs look to get forward at any opportunity, and the statistics back this up.

  As a team, Tottenham have made more off-the-ball runs into the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (612), with Dominic Solanke having the most among players (138).

  Spurs have also had the most shots inside the box of any Premier League side this term (134).

  Tottenham have played more passes/crosses into the opposition box than any other side in the Premier League this season (429). There are 10 players in the division to have made 70+, with Spurs having three of those (Pedro Porro 96, James Maddison 77, Dejan Kulusevski 72).

   

  Postecoglou promised Spurs fans a trophy this season, and their defeat of City in the EFL Cup was a big scalp, but in the league they have lost three of their last six games and are in 10th, though they are only three points off the top six.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Manchester City - Erling Haaland

  Haaland netted a hat-trick for Norway this week, taking his tally for the season to 22 for club and country. 

  He returned to scoring form in the Premier League against Brighton, though City could not hold on for the win. While he may not have always shown his best level, Haaland is still betting at a remarkable rate of 1.1 goals per 90 minutes in the top flight this season.

  Tottenham - Dejan Kulusevski

  No player has created more chances either overall (30) or from open play (25) in the Premier League this season than Kulusevski.

  His pace and skill on the counter could be a real asset against City's high line.

• Eight titles, two grand slams and 70 match wins: Sinner's spectacular 2024

  As far as seasons go, you won't find many better than Jannik Sinner's 2024 campaign.

  The 23-year-old had long been assured of his place at the top of the ATP rankings heading into 2025, but to further cement his dominance of the men's circuit, Sinner dominated the ATP Finals in Turin last week.

  Sinner's 6-4 6-4 defeat of Taylor Fritz ensured he became the first ATP Finals champion since Ivan Lendl in 1986 to win the tournament without dropping a single set.

  He became the seventh player to win the event on home soil, and the first Italian champion, as he made it eight titles for the year, including the Australian Open and US Open.

  Here, we recap Sinner's brilliant year using Opta's treasure trove of data.

  Breakout major success

  It almost seems strange to think Sinner began 2024 without a grand slam title to his name. That soon changed at the Australian Open, though, as he defeated Daniil Medvedev in a classic, five-set final.

  Sinner did things the hard way at Melbourne Park, also overcoming Andrey Rublev in the quarter-finals and Novak Djokovic in the last four. 

  At the age of 22 years and 165 days, he became the youngest player to ever achieve successive wins over ATP top-five opponents in the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final of a grand slam, surpassing Michael Stich, who did so at the age of 22 years and 262 days at Wimbledon 1991.

  That triumph also made him only the third Italian man to win a grand slam, after French Open champions Nicola Pietrangeli (1959 and 1960) and Adriano Panatta (1976).

  By beating Djokovic, Sinner became the first Italian to defeat the ATP's top-ranked player at a major, with Italians previously going 0-23 in such matches since the ATP Rankings were first published in 1973.

  Sinner would also record a final victory over Djokovic at the Shanghai Masters later in the year, becoming the first player on record to not face a single break point in back-to-back tour-level meetings with the Serbian.

   

  Slam consistency

  Of course, Sinner later followed up his Australian Open triumph by clinching the US Open crown, downing home favourite Fritz in the Flushing Meadows final.

  Those major wins were two of seven triumphs for Sinner at hard-court events this year, making him just the fifth player to win seven or more finals on the surface in a year, after Andre Agassi (1995), Pete Sampras (1996), Roger Federer (2004-06) and Djokovic (2015).

  But perhaps his remarkable consistency across all four grand slams is what stands out most.

  Sinner reached at least the quarter-finals at each of 2024's majors, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open semi-finals and Medvedev in the last eight at Wimbledon.

  At 23 years and 17 days, he became the third-youngest man in the Open Era to reach the quarter-finals at all four slams in a single season, after Sampras in 1993 (22 years and 18 days) and Rafael Nadal in 2008 (22 years and 83 days).

  Sinner won 23 matches overall at grand slams this year, with no other player on the ATP Tour bringing up 20 (Alcaraz managed 19).

   

  Top of the world

  Following his defeat to Djokovic in the showpiece match at the 2023 ATP Finals, Sinner sat fourth in the ATP Rankings 12 months ago.

  He had already clinched top spot for 2024 as early as October 15, when he beat Djokovic in straight sets in the Shanghai Open final. 

  Since changes were made to the distribution of ranking points in 2009, only two players have ever sewn up top spot earlier – Djokovic in 2015 (September 14) and Nadal in 2010 (September 20).

  No Italian had previously topped the ATP Rankings, and few could deny Sinner was a deserving recipient of the accolade. His 70 match wins were the most of any player on the ATP Tour in 2024, while his 92.1% win rate is the best by any player since 2015, when Djokovic won 93.2% of his contests. 

   

  Sinner did not let the pressure of being number one affect him, either, going 37-3 since first taking top spot. His 92.5% win rate is the best by any male world number one by some distance, dwarfing Bjorn Borg's 80.4%.

  With Djokovic turning 38 next year, most would agree Sinner's breakout season has been good for men's tennis, teeing up what could be a long period of dominance by the Italian and his rival Alcaraz.

  His star should continue to rise in 2025.

• WSL title race: Man City out to halt Bompastor's perfect Chelsea start

  This weekend brings the match everyone has been waiting for the Women's Super League.

  Stamford Bridge will be the stage as Chelsea host Manchester City on Saturday in a heavyweight tussle that promises to give fans an early indication of where the title may be heading this season. 

  Sonia Bompastor has started her Chelsea tenure emphatically, and she could become the first manager to win each of their first seven games in the WSL. If she felt any pressure when stepping into Emma Hayes' shoes, she certainly is not showing it.

  Chelsea have been in hot form in front of goal this term, scoring 23 goals across their first six games, having played one less than Manchester City due to their clash with Manchester United – who are also unbeaten – being rescheduled for next week. 

  The Blues' confidence will be sky-high going into this crucial double-header against the Manchester clubs, having maintained their unbeaten record across all competitions under Bompastor by overcoming Celtic in the Women's Champions League on Wednesday.

  Chelsea also have a strong record in this fixture. They have won four of their last five home games against City in the WSL, though they did lose their most recent such game 1-0 back in February, so Gareth Taylor's visitors will think they have a chance.  

  Man City sit top of the table and will not want to relinquish their advantage at the summit, and while last year's away victory over Chelsea was rare, they are unbeaten in their last three WSL meetings with the Blues, with two wins. 

  Overall, only Arsenal (10) have recorded more wins over them in the competition than City's seven, and another would represent a real statement of their title intent.

  Goals win Games… and Titles

  With the last title race coming down to goal difference in the final game of the season, City are clearly haunted by their inability to get across the line. Taylor and his players are determined not to see a repeat of that heartbreaking near miss in 2024-25.

  The City head coach told Opta Analyst exclusively in pre-season: "You would be surprised how strong it makes you and how mentally determined you become.

  "Of course, we will use that frustration, disappointment, to really use it as energy for this season."

  Banishing that nightmare is high on their agenda. They have scored 16 goals in just seven matches this season (2.2 per game), but this still represents a marginal underperformance of their underlying figures, given they have generated 16.59 xG (2.37 xG per game).

  However, if we compare City's attacking output to that from last season, it is clear they have endured a drop-off. In the WSL in 2023-24, City averaged 2.77 goals and 2.19 xG per game. Though they were eclipsed by Hayes' free-scoring Chelsea, they took more of their chances than anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they created.

  City successfully got 183 of their 423 shots on target last term (43.2%), whereas this season they have hit the target with 47 of their 125 attempts (37.6%). Their shot conversion rate has also dropped from 14.4% to 12.8% and their big-chance conversion rate has fallen from 41.67% (30/72) to 37.04% (10/27). 

   

  So there is still work to do for City if they are to match Chelsea's pace, with the Blues already boasting a goal difference eight better than that of their rivals.

  City might be able to point to some misfortune on that front, though, as their total xG figure is the highest in the league so far this term.

  With 23 goals, Chelsea have greatly overperformed their 13.76 xG, with that +9.24 overperformance by far the biggest in the competition. The Blues have been incredibly efficient, having the most shots on target (48) in the competition – one more than Man City (47) despite having 15 fewer shots overall. 

  The Blues' big-chance conversion rate of 60.87% is also the best in the WSL (14/23), as is their shot conversion rate (20.91%). By contrast, City's 12.8% shot conversion rate ranks fourth.

  Chelsea may have relied on Lauren James, Sam Kerr and Fran Kirby to provide the goals in previous seasons, but they have become a very different proposition under Bompastor. They have had 13 different goalscorers in the WSL this season, while City have only had six, ranking fourth, also behind Tottenham (eight) and Arsenal (seven).

  Shaw's Golden Touch 

  While City have not matched Chelsea's ruthlessness this season, that does not apply to last season's Golden Boot winner, Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw.

  She has seven goals in as many games this season, overperforming her league-high xG figure of 4.83 xG, and also leads the competition for shots (28) and shots on target (12).

  Shaw has been presented with nine big chances and has converted five of them, which is the highest conversion rate (55.56%) of the 13 players to have had more than three such opportunities in the league this term.

  Of players to have had at least 10 shots in the WSL, she also has the joint-best shot conversion rate (25%) – level with Nikita Parris (three goals from 12 shots) and Johanna Rytting Kaneryd (three goals from 12 shots).

  Since the beginning of last season, meanwhile, Shaw has scored 28 goals, at least 13 more than any other player in the competition (Elisabeth Terland is next on 15). 

   

  City were hoping their reliance on Shaw would be lessened when they swooped for the WSL's all-time leading scorer in Vivianne Miedema, but a recurring knee issue has left the former Arsenal star on the sidelines once more. Prior to her latest injury setback, Miedema had scored two goals in five games in all competitions for City.

  Shaw will have support from elsewhere, though. Lauren Hemp recently became the youngest player in WSL history to reach 50 goals and also leads the way for assists (five) and chances created (26) in the competition this season.

  However, despite her outstanding creative metrics, Hemp has underperformed her 3.26 xG, scoring twice from opportunities that should have resulted in at least one more goal.

  Hemp has struggled to convert her big chances this term, only putting away two of the eight that have fallen their way, though both Jessica Park (two goals from 1.79 xG) and Jill Roord (three goals from 2.34 xG) should offer more support to Shaw.

  New Boss, New Look

  It is fair to say Bompastor has taken to the Chelsea job like a duck to water, becoming just the second WSL manager to win her first six games at a new club, after Jonas Eidevall with Arsenal. No boss has ever started with seven consecutive WSL wins.

  The French coach has made a couple of key tweaks to Hayes' setup. Guro Reiten has been one major beneficiary, operating predominantly from a left-wing role (where she has played 68% of her minutes) but also being fielded centrally on occasion. 

   

  Reiten is Chelsea's leading scorer with four goals in six games, overperforming her 3.0 xG, while she also leads the Blues for shots (18) and chances created (12), providing two assists.
   
  Chelsea's young talent has also come to the fore under their new boss. Aggie Beever-Jones is having a big impact despite only making two WSL starts, netting three times.

  Only Reiten has had more shots than Beever-Jones' 14, while no Chelsea player has hit the target as many times as she has (nine). Beever-Jones has had a knack for being in the right place at the right time, converting two of her four big chances and averaging a goal every 83 minutes.
   
  Another player to find a new lease of life under Bompastor is Rytting Kaneryd, who leads all Chelsea players for goal contributions (five). The Sweden international also leads all of her team-mates for involvements in open-play shot-ending sequences, with 33.
   
  Sjoeke Nusken has also been particularly influential on both sides of the ball, creating 11 chances in open play while also attempting (20) and winning (13) more tackles than any of her team-mates.

   

  Timing is Everything

  One theme of Chelsea's season has been their ability to come out of the blocks fast and bury opponents early on, such as when they netted twice in the first 16 minutes of their 2-1 win at Arsenal. The Blues have scored 11 first-half goals in the WSL this season, more than any other team. Their 7.28 first-half xG is also the highest in the league, beating City's 6.78.

  Given their overall tally of 23 goals, it is no surprise that Chelsea have also scored the most second-half goals (12), with City second with 10. City have, however, been notably stronger in the second periods of games – often requiring late goals to earn results – and have the highest second-half xG (9.8), with Chelsea's second-half xG down at 6.5.

  So, Chelsea are often faster starters, but must be aware of City's ability to pull results out of the fire. Saturday's visitors have gained the most points from losing positions in the WSL this term (seven). Chelsea have not gained any points from losing positions, though that is, of course, because they are yet to trail at any point.

  After Chelsea's magnificent start to the campaign, the Opta supercomputer still views them as hot favourites to retain their crown. The Blues are given a huge 79.3% chance of winning the title compared to City's 19.9%, with Taylor's team finishing second again in 66.8% of our 2024-25 season simulations.

   

  The significance of this game, though, means those figures could drastically change after Saturday. Bompastor's team are given a 53.7% chance of emerging victorious, while City's hope of victory are rated at 22.5%.

  City would surely be content with a draw on the road, which would halt Chelsea's winning streak and maintain their advantage at the summit, and 23.7% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished all square.