Week 4 of the NFL season could well have a substantial bearing on how the playoff race shakes out.
Through three weeks, the 2022 campaign has delivered excitement at almost every turn, and there are plenty of high-stakes matchups to whet the appetite this weekend.
There are conference championship and Super Bowl rematches on the docket, as well as extremely intriguing matchups between some of the season's early pacesetters.
But which of the games on the schedule are likely to deliver the best contests? Stats Perform can provide some insight in that regard, using its SmartRatings as a guide.
SmartRatings is an AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
So, let's take a look at the three games rated among the most exciting on the Week 4 slate and break down the key matchups that could decide them.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
SmartRating: 67
Win probability: Buffalo Bills (55.3%)
Key Matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. Bills linebackers
The Bills only need to look to their AFC East rivals the New England Patriots for a reminder of what can happen when a defense fails to defend 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson effectively.
Last week, Jackson threw for 218 yards and four touchdowns with one interception while rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. He became the first player in Ravens history to throw at least three touchdown passes in each of the team's first three games of a season.
Limiting his efficiency on the ground will be critical for the Bills' hopes of outscoring a potent Ravens offense. On designed runs, Jackson is averaging a remarkable 13.47 yards per carry, with his threat as a runner naturally helping fuel the Ravens' play-action game. Baltimore's average of 10.85 yards per play on play-action is well above the league average of 9.15.
In Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, the Bills possess two athletic and intelligent linebackers. They will need to display their physical gifts and their awareness to help limit Jackson's impact with ball in hand and ensure they do not bite too hard against play-action and open large throwing windows for him to attack. An evenly matched clash between two AFC heavyweights promises to be a classic, and Milano and Edmunds may have a crucial say in it tilting in the favour of Buffalo.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
SmartRating: 75
Win Probability: Kansas City Chiefs (54.7%)
Key Matchup: Travis Kelce vs. Antoine Winfield Jr.
The Chiefs are unlikely to find much joy targeting the Buccaneers outside corners, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, who have each enjoyed excellent starts to the season as they look to gain a measure of revenge for their blowout loss to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.
Instead, Patrick Mahomes will probably look to his most trusted weapon, All-Pro tight end Kelce, to help him get the Chiefs back on track following their shock loss to the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.
Kelce has run 24 routes from the slot this season compared to nine from his in-line tight end spot. Having consistently thrived in the 'power slot' role throughout his career, Kelce will hope to do significant damage from that position while going against one the premier young safeties in the league.
Winfield has spent 63 percent of his snaps this season in the slot but has conceded a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted, on seven of his 11 targets. He has given up a big play on four of those targets.
With Kelce registering a burn on 18 of his 24 targets, the matchup looks to be in his favour. Winfield must find a way to ensure it isn't if the Bucs' defense is to provide yet more critical support to an offense that continues to struggle.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
SmartRating: 85
Win Probability: Los Angeles Rams 53.0%
Key Matchup: Aaron Donald vs. 49ers' Offensive Line
Even after losing their starting quarterback and All-Pro left tackle to injury, the 49ers are still only seen as slight underdogs in Monday's rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game.
But it is how the 49ers perform up front in the absence of Trent Williams that will likely determine if the Niners can continue their regular-season hoodoo over the Rams.
The Niners have won the last six regular-season meetings with Los Angeles, but the Rams – who finally knocked off their rivals in the game that mattered most – will be confident of ending that streak if Donald and Co. can take advantage of San Francisco sliding Colton McKivitz in at left tackle as Williams' replacement.
Much of that confidence will be based on how Jimmy Garoppolo performs when he is pressured. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 throws under pressure, Garoppolo's well-thrown percentage of 54.5 is the second worst in the NFL.
Donald has already racked up 13 pressures on 40 pass rush snaps and is known for his ability to create pressure from anywhere on the defensive line. McKivitz, right tackle Mike McGlinchey and an extremely inexperienced interior offensive line must deliver their best for San Francisco to avoid falling to 1-3.
Jaguars QB Lawrence has high-ankle sprain, status for Week 14 uncertain
Trevor Lawrence sustained a right high-ankle sprain in Monday's night's 34-31 overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Jaguars coach Doug Person revealed the diagnosis while talking to reporters Tuesday.
"Everything is stable," Pederson said. "Everything looks good and we'll see where he is in a couple of days."
Jacksonville visits the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, and Pederson didn't rule out Lawrence from playing.
"I'm not going to put that timetable on Trevor, not going to put him in a box like that," Pederson said.
Lawrence was injured with about five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter when his his right leg bent awkwardly after being stepped on by teammate Walker Little as he was sacked. He went to the ground in obvious pain and needed to be helped off the field. X-rays taken at Jacksonville's stadium were negative.
"The one last night looked worse than what it really was - very fortunate there," Pederson said. "But he seems to have a little bit of a knack (for avoiding serious injury)."
If he can't play, it would be the first game the durable Lawrence would miss since the Jaguars selected him No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft.
Backup C.J. Beathard would then make his 13th career start - and first since Week 17 of the 2020 season for the San Francisco 49ers. He is 2-10 as a starter in the NFL.
Replacing Lawrence on Monday, Beathard completed 9-of-10 passes for 63 yards.
"It's good to get C.J. a full week of preparation," Pederson said. "Trevor will stay mentally sharp and obviously see where he's at."
Lawrence was enjoying another showing before the injury, completing 22-of-29 passes for 258 yards with a pair of touchdowns.
In 12 games this season, he has 3,004 passing yards with 14 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions.
While Lawrence's status is uncertain, Pederson announced that top wide receiver Christian Kirk will be sidelined for "some time" due to a core muscle injury that will likely require surgery.
Kirk, who was injured on the first play from scrimmage against the Bengals, leads Jacksonville with 787 receiving yards on 57 receptions with three touchdown catches.
With Monday's loss, the Jaguars dropped to 8-4 and their lead atop the AFC South shrunk to one game over the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.
The Cincinnati Bengals stunned the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-31 on the back of kicker Evan McPherson’s overtime field goal.
In just his second career start, Bengals quarterback Jake Browning threw for 354 yards and a touchdown while his counterpart Trevor Lawrence left the field late in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury.
The Jaguars opened the scoring in the first quarter through running back Travis Etienne Jr before Cincinnati equalised at the start of the second with a six-yard touchdown run from Joe Mixon.
A touchdown to Jacksonville’s Evan Engram and Mixon finding the end zone for his second saw the half-time score even at 14-14.
Momentum continued to shift after the break, Cincinatti briefly taking the lead before the Jaguars entered the fourth quarter with a seven-point advantage.
The Bengals levelled again through a one-yard touchdown run from Browning and took the lead on a 54-yard field goal with just two minutes and 28 seconds on the clock.
The Cincinnati defence was almost able to wrap things up in regulation, but Jaguars kicker Brandon McManus was forced overtime in the final 30 seconds.
With Lawrence out of the game, the Bengals were ultimately able to claim their sixth win of the season through McPherson’s 48-yard conversion.
Free agent LB Leonard signs with Eagles
Shaquille Leonard has found a new home.
The free agent linebacker agreed to a one-year contract with the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday.
The 28-year-old had also met with the Dallas Cowboys, but ultimately decided to join the reigning NFC champions.
The Eagles, who visit the Cowboys on Sunday, suddenly need to shore up their defence after surrendering 456 yards in yesterday's 42-19 drubbing by the San Francisco 49ers in the highly anticipated NFC championship game rematch.
Since Week 11, Philadelphia is 31st in rushing defence, permitting an average of 162.3 yards per game on the ground after boasting the league's top-ranked rushing defence prior to its Week 10 bye, yielding 66.3 rushing yards per game.
The hope is Leonard, who was surprisingly waived by the Indianapolis Colts on November 21, can recapture the play that made him one of the top defenders in the league.
Leonard was voted to the AP All-Pro team as a rookie in 2018, then again in 2020 and 2021, but his injuries limited him to just three games last season and his production has dropped significantly.
After spending his first six seasons in Indianapolis, he was then cut by the Colts last month after complaining about his lack of playing time.
He had started the first nine games of the season for Indianapolis, registering 65 tackles with two going for loss.
In 70 career games, Leonard has 15 sacks, 12 interceptions, 17 forced fumbles and seven fumble recoveries.
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