The final round of Rugby Championship fixtures are upon us and two teams are realistically left standing in the battle to be crowned 2022 champions.
In what has been the most competitive tournament since Argentina joined a decade ago, all four teams have at one point looked good value to finish top.
New Zealand are level with South Africa at the summit, but they have the advantage in terms of the sides' net points difference, which may be used as a deciding factor.
The All Blacks therefore know a bonus-point win over Bledisloe Cup rivals Australia in a repeat of last week's classic will all but land them an eighth title in 10 years.
South Africa play Argentina, the only side entirely out of the running, later on Saturday and will know what they have to do to have a chance – if any – of overtaking New Zealand.
Here, Stats Perform previews the weekend clashes in round six of the championship using Opta data.
NEW ZEALAND v AUSTRALIA
FORM
New Zealand beat Australia 39-37 in last week's thrilling Test in Melbourne through a hugely contentious late try to make it four wins in a row in this fixture – their best such run since winning seven on the bounce between August 2015 and August 2017.
The All Blacks' record on home soil against Australia is even better, having won each of the last 22 Tests in Auckland by an average margin of 18 points per game. The last time Australia got the better of their neighbours in that city was in September 1986.
Australia therefore have a huge task on their hands at Eden Park as they aim to avoid losing three Tests in a row in the Rugby Championship for the first time since September 2013, with this current run following a streak of six wins from their previous seven matches in the competition.
The Wallabies, who need a bonus-point win and would then hope South Africa fail to get the result required against Argentina, will look to exploit any ill-discipline from their rivals. Their goal-kicking accuracy of 92 per cent on place-kicks this year (33/36) is some 11 percentage points higher than any other Tier One nation.
ONES TO WATCH
Will Jordan has made 10 line breaks for New Zealand across 2022, which is the most of any player from a Tier One nation. To put that into some further perspective, it is double the tally of Tom Wright (five), Australia's best performer in that area.
Australia wing Marika Koroibete could hold the key to breaking down the hosts. The 30-year-old has beaten 23 defenders in 2022 – the most of any player from a Tier One nation and two more than New Zealand's best Rieko Ioane.
SOUTH AFRICA V ARGENTINA
FORM
Following last week's 36-20 bonus-point triumph in Buenos Aires, South Africa have won their past five Tests against Argentina. However, a win alone may not be enough on Saturday and the Springboks could find themselves going all out for an emphatic victory in pursuit of New Zealand.
The Boks have some much-needed momentum on their side thanks to two wins in a row – matching the number they managed in their previous seven games in the competition – with those victories coming by a margin of exactly 16 points.
Argentina cannot be written off, though, having already defeated New Zealand and Australia during the first half of their championship campaign. Los Pumas have lost back-to-back matches since then, as many as they lost in their six games prior.
Turnovers could be a huge factor in this contest as Argentina and South Africa have won the most of any teams in this year's tournament with 22 apiece, while also making the most and second-most tackles with 706 and 600 respectively.
ONES TO WATCH
Springbok lock Lood de Jager has played a big part for his country this campaign and is second only to Italy's Federico Ruzza for line-outs won among players from Tier One nations in 2022 with 36.
Matias Moroni was among the try scorers for Argentina in last week's loss when finishing off a well-worked set-piece and is among the starters for this latest tussle. He has made dominant contact on seven tackles this year, placing him second only to Italy's Monty Ioane (eight) among elite nations.
Gatland 'still the best coach in the world', says Wales assistant Howley
Wales assistant Rob Howley described Warren Gatland as the "world's best coach" and insists the under-fire boss is going nowhere.
Wales have lost each of their last 11 Test matches, their longest ever run in men’s rugby, overtaking a 10-game stretch between November 2002 and August 2003.
Their most recent defeat came by 32 points (20-52 v Australia), their heaviest loss since a 36-point thrashing at home to South Africa in August last year (16-52).
And it is not going to get any easier with world champions South Africa the visitors to the Principality Stadium on Saturday for Wales' Autumn Nations Series finale.
South Africa have emerged victorious in six of their last seven Tests against Wales (L1) and have also won each of their last three games against Wales by margins of 16+ points.
Another triumph would see Wales going the calendar year without winning a Test, which has not happened since 1937, though Howley has no doubt that Wales are in safe hands.
"We've got the best coach in the world who has had a legacy of more than 13 years," said Howley.
"He's won Grand Slams and there is no better coach to have in your camp than Warren. He gives players the confidence and self-belief they need to go out and play."
During Gatland's first stint in charge from 2008 to 2019, Wales were World Cup semi-finalists, Six Nations champions and Grand Slam winners.
This time around, amid far more challenging circumstances and attempting to mould a new squad, Wales have won just six out of his 23 Tests at the helm.
Wales have also won just one of their last 11 Test matches at the Principality Stadium, last winning in Cardiff against Argentina in November 2023.
Howley was asked if he would take an interim head coach job if Gatland departed, but responded defiantly by saying, "Warren Gatland won't leave".
Howley insists Gatland's experiences can help turn Wales around, saying: "Warren is a hugely respected coach and has coached over a number of years.
"His legacy with different teams is a winning legacy. At the moment, we are in this spell where we are losing.
"We at some point know we will win, and I hope it will be the next game on Saturday. I think at the moment we've got the best coach who has got years of experience.
"We've been in changing rooms where we've won and lost, Lions changing rooms going into the series at 1-1 with everything on the line.
"He understands rugby, and I believe Wales have got the best coach in the world to get us out of this."
Farrell backs 'composed' Prendergast to shine on first Ireland start
Andy Farrell believes Sam Prendergast is ready to step up ahead of his first Ireland start against Fiji at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday.
Farrell has made seven changes to his team, handing first caps to Leinster's Gus McCarthy and Ulster's Cormac Izuchukwu for the penultimate game of the Autumn Nations Series.
The Ireland head coach has handed Prendergast the number 10 jersey for the first time after he was used off the bench in the closing stages of last week's win over Argentina.
Prendergast has only started eight games for Leinster, but Farrell had no hesitation in handing him a first start after he impressed on the Emerging Ireland tour of South Africa.
"I'm confident from what we've seen. We took him on the Emerging [Ireland] and he played in all of those games," said Farrell.
"The aim of that was to grab hold of that team and make sure that he treated it like it was his own, as though he was in charge, and he did that in spades.
"This week we've seen the benefit of that, but we need to see it transfer, obviously.
"Yes, his character is composed, confident but yet not over-confident. He's assertive in what he wants, and he has a nice way about how he goes about his business.”
Farrell also had a glowing review for Izuchukwu, saying: "Izzy has been in and around the squad for a while. The first Emerging Ireland tour was when we first came across his ability, his athleticism, his point of difference.
"That was a couple of years ago but the improvement in his maturity of his game, because he was young in the 15-a-side game when the first tour was on, but the difference between the first and second tour was like chalk and cheese.
"His ability and potential with that maturity, he deserves a shot to show us all what he's got."
On McCarthy, who captained the Ireland Under-20s to a Six Nations Grand Slam in 2023, Farrell said: "He's been a captain and you can see why because his maturity in how he goes about the game."
He added: "We took him on the training week [to Portugal] as a development player and he showed up unbelievably well. He forced our hand to keep him in the squad first and foremost and he deserves a shot to see what he can do as well."
Ciaran Frawley also returns to the bench after missing out last weekend on the back of a poor outing against New Zealand.
And Cian Healy must wait another week for a record-breaking 134th cap - having drawn level with Brian O'Driscoll against Argentina - after the prop was left out of the 23.
Ireland team to play Fiji
Jamie Osborne; Mack Hansen, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Sam Prendergast, Craig Casey; Andrew Porter, Gus McCarthy, Finlay Bealham; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Cormac Izuchukwu, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rob Herring, Tom O'Toole, Thomas Clarkson, Iain Henderson, Cian Prendergast, Conor Murray, Ciaran Frawley, Stuart McCloskey.
Girlz coach Busby eyes improved performance as 'Bunny' Shaw returns for South Africa friendlies
With Jamaica’s senior Reggae Girlz failing to register a win since beating Panama at last year’s Fifa Women’s World Cup, Head coach Hubert Busby says the two highly anticipated home friendlies against South Africa represent an opportunity to turnaround their poor run of form.
Though focused on more than just immediate results, Busby pointed out that victory in upcoming matches is part of a larger vision—a journey toward a third-consecutive World Cup appearance in 2027 and the continued development of a sustainable, competitive program for Jamaica’s women’s football.
The Girlz will take on South Africa at the Montego Bay Sports Complex on November 29 and December 2, in what will be their first matches on home soil since November 2022. It will also be the first game in Jamaica for the core group of the 2023 World Cup squad since last September’s Olympic qualifying playoff against Canada.
“It’s special to have the girls back playing in front of our fans. This is an opportunity to connect with the home crowd again, but it’s also a critical step in our preparation for what’s ahead,” Busby shared as he unveiled his 23-member squad.
“We're looking to have a good performance, then that leads to, obviously, a good result to end the year, but really it is also about us continuing to evaluate and to make the proper assessment of the players who continue to kind of move forward into World Cup qualifiers. I mean, that's really the bigger picture. So short term, let's get two good performances this week...two good results and take that into the February window,” he added.
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw has been in good form for Manchester City.
Busby’s approach reflects his determination to build on recent experiences, including lessons learned from challenging matches against top-tier opponents like Brazil and more recently, France.
Despite a compressed six-day camp prior to that encounter, in which they lost 0-3, he noted the progress made in refining their style of play, particularly in maintaining possession and executing defensive transitions.
“We didn’t get the result we wanted against France, but there were positives, especially in how we’re evolving our style of play—keeping possession and building from the back. But we need to cut down on individual mistakes and improve decision-making in critical moments. Football is a game of moments, and minimizing mistakes during crucial periods is a key focus for us,” he noted.
With the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Brazil as the ultimate target, Busby has been focused on establishing a winning culture while integrating new talent into the team.
For the last camp, he invited Taylor Hinds, Lulu Jarvis, Reanna Blades, and Natasha Thomas in to see how they fit into the programme, but none of those players are listed for the upcoming camp, in which national youth representative Destiny Powell and Naya Cardoza will be the only new players among the core group.
The coach stressed that his job is not just to guide the team to their third consecutive World Cup but to lay the groundwork for Jamaica’s participation in every World Cup thereafter, hence the consistent inclusion of young talent.
“It’s not just about Brazil in 2027. It’s about creating a sustainable pipeline of talent so we’re always competitive because their growth today will fuel our success tomorrow. So it's really important to get these young players in,” Busby shared.
“My responsibility is to get this team to the 2027 World Cup, but with that said, you know, we want to ensure that we're going to every single World Cup afterwards. Integrating young, talented players into the group to see where they are keeps the group fresh and challenges the group to keep it competitive. The success that we've had in the past, the average age, I believe was about 26 years of age, so they'll probably be about 28 going forward,” he explained.
One of the most exciting elements of the upcoming friendlies is the return of Khadija “Bunny” Shaw, who has been in rich form for Manchester City.
Busby, while highlighting her influence, both as a leader and a prolific scorer, as key to the team’s offensive strategy, also emphasized that the team’s success needs to be rooted in defence as former captain Konya Plummer, left full-back/winger Siobhan Wilson, and defensive midfielder Peyton McNamara also make a return to the fold. Wilson recently recovered from an ACL injury.
Siobhan Wilson makes a long-awaited return after an ACL injury kept her out of action for nine months.
“One of our objectives is to keep a clean sheet. Being good defensively has been the basis of our foundation of success without a doubt, but the biggest inclusion in this group is leader ‘Bunny’ Shaw. She's been in great form, as we all know, so it gives us another option up front to go around with all the as to go along with the other attacking options we have. But having her back in the group helps tremendously,” the tactician declared.
Like the Reggae Girlz, South Africa are also fresh off their participation in the 2023 World Cup, and Busby expects the games to be another tough challenge for his side, much like it was in their last meeting in 2019 when they played out a 1-1 stalemate in Durban.
“Going into these two games against a great-quality opponent in South Africa still gives us a really good litmus test in terms of where we are and, more importantly, where we need to go. So that is the objective. We want to get the wins. We want to improve performance. And we're hoping that these next two games will see a much more improved performance than we have before, that's for sure,” Busby ended.
Squad: Rebecca spencer, Liya Brooks, Allyson Swaby, Konya Plummer, Naya Cardoza, Vyan Sampson, Chantelle Swaby, Deneisha Blackwood, Siobhan Wilson, Atlanta Primus, Destiny Powell, Peyton McNamara, Jade Bailey Drew Spence, Paige Bailey-Gayle, Olufolasade Adamolekun, Khadija Shaw, Kayla McKenna, Davia Richards, Jody Brown, Shania Hayles, Shaniel Buckley, Tiffany Cameron
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