Mercedes driver George Russell believes Max Verstappen will win Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix despite starting 15th on the grid, and doubts his own chances of a podium finish.
Defending Formula One drivers' champion Verstappen put in the fastest lap in qualifying on Saturday, but the Red Bull ace is among those who have been pushed to the back of the grid after being issued with penalties.
Verstappen, courtesy of his qualifying efforts, starts at the front of the queue of those handed engine penalties. Charles Leclerc, Esteban Ocon, Lando Norris and Zhou Guanyu line up behind him, with Mick Schumacher at the back after a gearbox penalty.
That gives Verstappen plenty to do if he is to extend his lead at the top of the championship in the first race after the mid-season break, but Russell is still expecting him to finish top of the pile.
"I think Max will probably still win the race. I don't know where he is going to be starting, but with the pace he has got he will probably still win the race," Russell said.
"And Charles [Leclerc] as well, he will probably still come through. So, I think it is unlikely that we will be on the podium tomorrow in all honesty, because we've still got Carlos [Sainz] and Checo [Perez] there and Max is going to slice through the field pretty quickly.
"We will need to look overnight, try and understand it. Qualifying is out of the way, which has been our weak point, and we'll try and be faster tomorrow."
While Verstappen is hopeful of a podium finish, his priority is to survive what is set to be a thrilling first lap at Spa with plenty of cars out of position, before eyeing a finish further up the field.
"I think with the pace we have in the car, I want to move forward, and I want to be at least on the podium," Verstappen said.
"I mean survive, of course, lap one – that's the most important. Then after that I need to pass a few cars before of course you get into a competitive position."
Ferrari's Carlos Sainz starts the race on pole ahead of Sergio Perez, with Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton on the second row while Russell and Alex Albon complete the top six.
Norris believes he has 'what it takes’ for future world title after Verstappen battle
Lando Norris believes he has what it takes to challenge for a world title in the future after his battle with Max Verstappen during the 2024 season.
Norris arrives at the Las Vegas Grand Prix this weekend 62 points behind Verstappen, knowing a win is a must if he is to keep his faint world championship hopes alive.
Verstappen and Red Bull started the campaign as they left off last year, only for Norris and McLaren to emerge as genuine contenders after a series of car developments.
On a dramatic weekend in Brazil, Norris reduced the Dutchman's advantage to 44 points by winning in the Sprint race, but that victory proved to be in vain.
Despite starting 17th on the grid, Verstappen regained his sizeable margin with a stunning wet weather performance, and can clinch a fourth world title in Sin City this weekend.
When asked what he had learned from this season, Norris said: “That I have what it takes. It’s the first time in the last six years of F1 that we’ve had a chance to fight at the front.
"This is our, and my, first opportunity to do so, and my first opportunity to see where I stand.
“I definitely was not at the level I needed to be at the beginning of the year, even [after beating Verstappen to a maiden win] in Miami.
"Since the summer break I feel like I’ve done a very good job and performed very, very well – by far some of my best performances that I’ve done.
“I’ve been very happy with how the last few months have gone, honestly. I wouldn’t change many things that have happened.
"I still need to make tweaks and I still need to improve on things, that’s clear. I’m not completely satisfied with how I’ve done and I definitely know I need to make improvements.
“But, for the first time, I’m confident to say I have what I think I need to fight for a championship. It doesn’t mean I’m complete, it doesn’t mean I’m perfect.
"When you’re competing against drivers who are close to that, like Max, you have to be close to perfect if you want to challenge him.”
Despite Norris' disappointment, this weekend marks an opportunity for McLaren to edge closer to a first constructors' championship since 1998.
The British-based team are currently 36 points ahead of Ferrari at the top of the standings with two races and a sprint remaining this season.
McLaren have 19 podiums in 2024, their best record in a campaign since 2007 (24). In only four years have they achieved more (20 in 1998, 22 in 2000, 24 in 2007 and 25 in 1988), though Norris insisted the battle was far from over.
“Ferrari have been strong for a long time,” said Norris. “They have two very good drivers, they’re a very good team, they’ve clearly improved their car a good amount and found a better direction to head down.
“They probably will be with us. Some races are a bit better, some races a little bit behind, some races the same as a competition. Maybe [the momentum is] a little bit with them, but we’re close. Red Bull are close at the same time.
“It’s more about who can do a better performance on a weekend. We do know that Vegas is probably a track that will suit the Ferraris a bit more.
"It suited them well last year, but we know Qatar will be more favourable to us.”
Hamilton 'still loves' Mercedes and will give everything in final races
Lewis Hamilton has pledged to give everything in his final three races for Mercedes, despite admitting he had thoughts of an early exit after struggling at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix.
Hamilton finished 10th in the grand prix and 11th in the sprint race in Brazil three weeks ago, then described the weekend as a "disaster" and suggested he was not averse to an early exit.
The seven-time world champion – who will join Ferrari ahead of next season – said over team radio: "If this is the last time I get to perform, it was a shame it wasn't great."
However, with just three races remaining before his 12-year stint with the Silver Arrows comes to an end, Hamilton has put those troubles behind him and is determined to finish 2024 on a high.
Speaking ahead of this weekend's Las Vegas Grand Prix, Hamilton said: "In the moment, that's how I felt. I didn't really want to come back after that weekend but that's only natural.
"In the heat of the moment, for sure I'd much rather be on the beach and chilling. I don't need to do this.
"It wasn't a great feeling in that moment but I'm here, I'm standing strong and I'm going to give it absolutely everything for these last few races.
"Nothing can take me down. I've got a team that I genuinely still love and even though I'm leaving, I want to give them the best that I can in these next races.
"If they provide a car that wants to stay on track, then hopefully we'll have a better result."
Sunday's race will take place exactly 10 years since Hamilton won the second of his seven drivers' championships, sealing his 2014 title triumph at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
He is currently seventh in the drivers' championship standings, just two points adrift of Mercedes team-mate George Russell.
Russell has won 50.26% of Mercedes' points this year to Hamilton's 49.74%. That is the smallest percentage split between any pair of team-mates in F1, with Red Bull pair Max Verstappen (72.24%) and Sergio Perez (27.76%) having the largest split.
Las Vegas Grand Prix: To be a champion, you must race 'on the limit', says Verstappen
Max Verstappen explained that his quest for a fourth world championship title has seen him race "on the limit" ahead of this weekend's Las Vegas Grand Prix.
Verstappen has the chance to become one of the greatest to grace the sport under the bright lights of Sin City this weekend, should he finish ahead of McLaren's Lando Norris.
Though the world championship isn't officially decided yet, after a phenomenal wet weather performance in Brazil last time out, Verstappen is within touching distance.
He has a 62-point lead over Norris with two races and a sprint left, and if the Briton finds himself 60 points behind after Las Vegas, his title bid will officially come to an end.
The pair have exchanged battles on the track this season, most notably at the United States and Mexican Grands Prix last month, with Verstappen criticised for his driving.
"I know on track if you want to win, if you want to be a champion, you do need to be on the limit," the Red Bull driver told BBC Sport.
Should he emerge victorious on Sunday, he would become the sixth driver in history to win at least four world titles, after Michael Schumacher (seven), Lewis Hamilton (seven), Juan Manuel Fangio (five), Alain Prost (four) and Sebastian Vettel (four).
"Of course, the championship is in the back of my mind, naturally," he says. "But I will always try to get the best result out of it first and then see what’s possible.
"I always demand a lot from myself. I always try to get the best possible result out of it. I hate making mistakes.
"I put that pressure on myself every weekend. If you want to win a championship, you cannot afford bad results."
But Verstappen's season has been far from plain sailing, with Red Bull's remarkable mid-season dip allowing McLaren and Ferrari to close in.
Prior to his win in Interlagos, the Dutchman had gone nine races without a pole position and 10 without a win, his worst streak since the penultimate round in 2020, when he went 17 qualifying rounds without a pole and 11 consecutive races without a victory.
After winning seven of the first 10 races of the 2024 season, Verstappen said he was surprised by the other teams' slow start to the campaign.
"We started really dominant, but I also feel like some teams didn’t start as well as they should have compared to last year, so we were a bit surprised about that," he said.
"We felt it’s a bit weird how the others are not really making the step forward. So then I guess they got their stuff sorted out.
"I already said from the beginning of the year that I was not entirely happy with how the car was handling."
Despite a fourth title almost being sealed and 62 wins already in the bag, Verstappen has revealed that he plans to explore the world of motorsport before he retires.
He is relaxed about his future, though he has been open-minded about where he might drive in F1 in coming years and how much longer he will stay.
"It is not like when I started in F1. I had that target, seven titles, 100-plus wins. At the time, Michael (Schumacher) was the record-holder. It’s not how I see life any more.
"Maybe when I was a bit younger, yeah, I wanted to drive F1 as long as I could. But now when you have already achieved so much, it is not about wanting to drive forever.
"I also want to enjoy life. I definitely don’t want to be racing in F1 until I’m 40 years old. You only live once, and I don’t want to spend half of it racing cars."
DRIVERS TO WATCH
Max Verstappen – Red Bull
Verstappen has the chance to become only the third driver in the competition’s history to break the 3,000-point barrier (2,979.50 currently), something only Hamilton (4829.50) and Vettel (3098) have achieved.
The Dutchman has scored 72.24% of Red Bull's points in 2024, the widest gap to the second driver of any team this season in Formula One (44.49 – 27.76% for Sergio Perez). On the other hand, Mercedes is the team with the smallest percentage difference between its drivers in terms of total points (0.52 - George Russell's 50.26 and Hamilton's 49.74).
But, if either Verstappen or Perez achieve the fastest lap at the Las Vegas Grand Prix, Red Bull (99) will become the fifth team in Formula One history to achieve 100 fastest laps after Ferrari (263), McLaren (170), Williams (133) and Mercedes (109).
Oscar Piastri – McLaren
Piastri has scored points in 23 consecutive F1 grand prix. It is the seventh-best historical run in the competition (also 23 for Fernando Alonso between Europe 2011 and Hungary 2012) and the best of any McLaren driver.
The Australian is the only driver on the grid to have finished 100% of races in 2024. Not only is this the longest current run, but if he finishes in Las Vegas, it will be the 11th longest streak in Formula One history, equalling Perez's record between France 2022 and Singapore 2023 (26).
However, Piastri will be aiming to return to the podium places having gone three races without a top-three finish since ending the Singapore Grand Prix in third. It is his worst streak since the first seven races of the season.
CHAMPIONSHIP STANDINGS
Drivers
1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 393
2. Lando Norris (McLaren) – 331
3. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – 307
4. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – 262
5. Carlos Sainz (Ferrari) – 244
Constructors
1. McLaren – 593
2. Ferrari – 557
3. Red Bull – 544
4. Mercedes – 382
5. Aston Martin – 86
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