When the Houston Rockets and Washington Wizards swapped point guards Russell Westbrook and John Wall on Wednesday, it was undoubtedly one of the blockbuster trades of the offseason.
But while the names and pedigrees of the players are well known, neither star shines as bright today as he once did, and the current value of each player remains a mystery.
In a way, the careers for Wall and Westbrook have followed similar paths. Both were drafted as prospects with a rare combination of athletic gifts but had unrefined games. Both developed into All-Stars who peaked in the 2016-17 season, and have since declined since receiving massive contract extensions.
But while Wall's descent has been due to injury, Westbrook has played his way out of elite status despite his many accomplishments.
Westbrook will begin the season with his third different team in as many seasons, and it is clear the league does not value him at the level his statistical prowess would suggest.
The 2016-17 league MVP is a reasonable 32 years old and is coming off a season in Houston in which he averaged 27.2 points per game and shot a career-high 47.2 percent from the field. Westbrook even had a 38-game stretch during which he scored over 30.0 points per game and shot over 50 percent, the longest of his career.
But the nine-time All-Star's 25.8 percentage from three-point range last season – one of the five worst marks ever with at least 200 attempts – and overall shot selection have left him with the reputation as an exciting stat-stuffer whose weaknesses exclude his team from serious contention.
Not to mention that Westbrook's numbers plummeted in the NBA's Disney campus bubble after he recovered from COVID-19 in July, and the long-term effects of the coronavirus are still being researched.
Westbrook will – or at least should – play second fiddle to incumbent Wizards star Bradley Beal, whose scoring has increased in each of the previous five seasons and reached 30.5 points per game in 2019-20.
But perhaps the fit could be mutually beneficial if Westbrook abandons his errant long-range shooting and focuses on attacking the basket, opening up shots for Beal and fellow sharp-shooter Davis Bertans.
The team has a logjam of frontcourt players including Thomas Bryant, Robin Lopez, Ian Mahinmi, Rui Hachimura and Moritz Wagner – perhaps necessitating another trade – but the Wizards should be in a position to at least compete for a playoff spot in the East.
However, Westbrook has worn out his welcome with two teams in two years, while Beal may find shots harder to come by, if his new teammate takes 22.5 shots and commits 4.5 turnovers per game as he did last season.
Wall's future contributions, though, are a complete wildcard.
After weeks of rumours circulating that James Harden wanted a different running mate in Houston, ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the three-time scoring champion told Rockets brass he would prefer Wall to Westbrook.
Much like Westbrook, Wall's numbers peaked in 2016-17, when he played 78 games and averaged 23.1 points and 10.7 assists while leading the NBA in steals.
The next season he played 41 games and missed large stretches with knee soreness. In 2018-19, Wall returned to average 20.7 points and 8.7 assists in 32 games before requiring surgery for recurring heel soreness. After his surgical site became infected, he slipped and fell in his home in February 2019, tearing his Achilles tendon.
While rehabbing in preparation for the 2019-20 season, Wall tore the ACL in his left knee last August, keeping him out the entire campaign.
When the upcoming season tips off on December 22, it will have been two full years since Wall played in an NBA game.
While he is two years younger than Westbrook, such an extensive injury history makes him an enormous risk for the Rockets, who are already undergoing organisational change after the departure of longtime general manager Daryl Morey.
The history of players returning from Achilles ruptures is checkered, ending the careers of many role players and perhaps even accelerating the end of Kobe Bryant's career. One positive example is that of Atlanta Hawks legend Dominique Wilkins, who suffered the injury midway through the 1991-92 season at 32 years old.
Wilkins returned to play 71 games the following season while averaging 29.9 points and making a career-high 1.7 three-pointers per game.
But Wilkins avoided the knee issues that Wall has suffered in recovery.
With a torn Achilles and ACL, Wal's injury history is most similar to that of DeMarcus Cousins, who also joined the Rockets this offseason after signing a one-year, $2.33million contract.
The risk for Houston is extremely high, with Wall signed through the 2022-23 season and scheduled to make over $47m in the final year of his deal, albeit Westbrook's contract runs just as long.
The Rockets have tried out various co-stars in an effort to enable Harden to lead the franchise to the NBA Finals but have come up short each time. Wall and Cousins bring All-Star talent but a truckload of baggage and uncertainty.
Earlier this offseason, when Harden was mentioned in trade rumours involving the Brooklyn Nets, the Rockets showed no public interest in moving their offensive juggernaut.
But as Harden's supporting cast becomes increasingly volatile, the Westbrook-for-Wall swap could be the boom-or-bust move that signals the final chapter of the Harden era in Houston.