The Ligue 1 title tussle between Paris Saint-Germain and Lille is going to the wire, and it is Les Dogues who hold a slender advantage heading into the final day.
Lille could have won the title – their first since 2010-11 – last week had they beaten Saint-Etienne and PSG dropped points against Reims.
Neither of those outcomes came to fruition, however, and Lille are just one point ahead with one game left to play. It is the smallest gap between a leader and the second-placed team at this stage in a Ligue 1 campaign since 2001-02.
Christophe Galtier's team need only to beat Angers to guarantee their triumph, but the mid-table team are one of the only three sides Lille have lost to this season in Ligue 1, while PSG face Brest.
Just below the title battle, Monaco – who have a slim chance of taking top billing – and Lyon are vying for the final Champions League spot.
Monaco could yet end up at the summit, but Niko Kovac's team would finish fourth if they fail to beat Lens and Lyon defeat Nice.
At the other end of the table, there is potential for drama, with six teams between 18th-placed Nantes and 13th-placed Reims involved in a relegation scrap.
It has been a tightly fought contest throughout the season at the top of the table, but all will be decided on Sunday.
How does the predictor work?
First of all, here's how we got the data...
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position. The points total is based on an average of the predicted points from the simulations of the league outcome.
Let's see how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Lille likely to pip PSG to the post
Our model suggests that it will be Lille who hold firm to triumph this season, and claim their fourth Ligue 1 crown in the process, giving Les Dogues a 57.9 per cent chance of finishing top.
Lille did lose to Angers earlier this season, but they had won the previous three matches against them.
Angers, though, have only failed to score in two of their 18 Ligue 1 home games against Lille, doing so in their first such meeting in September 1957 (0-0) and in their most recent in February 2020 (0-2).
However, Lille's away form is superb – they have won 11 of their last 12 Ligue 1 games on the road.
Opta's AI predicts a 34 per cent chance of Lille finishing second, and an 8.9 per cent of them finishing third. The latter outcome would require Lille to lose, PSG to avoid defeat, Monaco to win, and there to be at least a six-goal swing in goal difference in the principality club's favour.
For PSG, the model offers them a 45.7 per chance of finishing second. If they drop points at all, then Lille will only need to draw to win the title, while a defeat – combined with a Monaco victory – would see Mauricio Pochettino's team finish third. Opta predict there is a 10.9 per cent chance of this happening.
There is very slim potential (3.1 per cent) for PSG to finish outside of the Champions League places and in fourth, but the goal difference swing required (17) would be bordering on the realms of impossibility.
PSG have a 40.3 per cent chance of finishing top, with Monaco not technically out of the running – they have a 2.6 per cent chance.
Monaco would need both Lille and PSG to slip up for that to occur. However, their main focus is to secure Champions League football.
Opta suggests this may be tough, with Lyon – led by the in-form Memphis Depay – given a 43.2 per cent chance of snatching third place, with Monaco destined for fourth. This is due in part to their poor record away at Lens in Ligue 1, where they have won just one of their last 14 top-flight games.
Bad luck for Brest
In the relegation scrap, Opta predict that Nantes, who currently occupy 18th place or Brest are the most likely teams to have to play-off against Toulouse or Grenoble Foot for a place in next season's Ligue 1.
Brest of course face PSG, and they have lost their last three Ligue 1 home games against the capital club, giving them a 50 per cent chance of finishing 18th.
Nantes are in action against Montpellier, and the model suggests their most likely finishing position is also in the bottom three (35.8 per cent), though only one unwanted place is up for grabs.
Reims, who sit in 13th, are not mathematically safe, with only two points between them and Nantes, but they are predicted to secure their top-flight status for next season.
Lorient, Bordeaux and Strasbourg could also be dragged into the relegation/promotion play-off place.
Luis Enrique confident PSG are in perfect form with three titles up for grabs
Paris Saint-Germain can wrap up the Ligue 1 title this weekend, and with the Champions League and Coupe de France still to play for, they are in the best possible form, according to manager Luis Enrique.
PSG host relegation battling Le Havre on Saturday, and a win will secure the league title with three games still to play, leaving them to concentrate on a Champions League semi-final with Borussia Dortmund and the cup final against Lyon.
"I think we are heading into the final phase of the season in great form," said Luis Enrique.
"I wouldn't have imagined this scenario going as positively as this, but what happens in the future is what happens. I would say we are in fantastic form in every way. We have almost every player available. Our supporters are very happy.
"The club has so much ambition to achieve something else. It is a really attractive end to the season, which we are motivated for, and we will continue to fight to achieve all our targets."
'Did anyone expect us to be champions?' – Klopp not ready to assess final season at Anfield
Jurgen Klopp refused to assess his final season at Liverpool just yet, despite the campaign seemingly starting to fizzle out.
Wednesday’s 2-0 defeat to Everton in the Merseyside derby dealt a huge blow to Liverpool’s Premier League title hopes.
The Reds are now three points clear of leaders Arsenal, while they are two points behind second-placed Manchester City, who have a game in hand.
Klopp has just four matches left of his Liverpool tenure, though he is not ready to assess the final season of his stint just yet.
"I would not assess it now. I have no clue, so I am not in the mood to give up, wave the white flag kind of thing," he said ahead of Saturday’s trip to West Ham.
"I just think we have to look after ourselves; just make sure that we play better football. I said after the game 'why should a team who play like us against Everton be champions?' But the football we played before, a lot of good stuff. In January we looked invincible, with a depleted squad. Everybody went in the same direction, go for it, squeezed out results.
"So, we deserve to be where we are. I want us to use the situation, don't feel the pressure, for whatever reason it is. The boys are incredible footballers and I see it as my job to create that atmosphere where they can be the best versions of themselves – and that's obviously how I have failed.
"I don't know how it happened, but I didn't see anything of what I wanted us to be in the Everton game."
Klopp did, though, reminded the media that Liverpool have performed above expectations.
"Did anyone expect us to become champions at the start of the season? No, but it developed in this direction," Klopp added.
"Just to explain how different it is. We cannot go back to the point where we say 'yeah, well [qualifying for the Champions League] is good enough'. It is very good, but because we were so close, we are very, very disappointed in this moment in time. We cannot change that."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
West Ham – Jarrod Bowen
Bowen has scored in both of West Ham’s meetings with Liverpool so far this season – the only Hammers player to score in three different games against the Reds in a single campaign is Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah has received criticism for his recent form, but he has scored 11 goals for Liverpool against West Ham in all competitions, only netting more against Manchester United (14) in his Reds career.
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
West Ham have won just one of their last eight Premier League home games (D5 L2), beating Brentford 4-2 in February. They lost against Fulham last time out but haven’t lost consecutive home league games since a run of three in November/December 2022.
Liverpool have already beaten West Ham 3-1 in the Premier League and 5-1 in the League Cup so far this season. This is the 11th different campaign in which they have faced the Hammers 3+ times, but they have never managed to beat them three times in any of the previous 10.
Since keeping back-to-back clean sheets against Liverpool in the 2015-16 campaign, West Ham have conceded at least once in each of their last 15 against the Reds, conceding multiple goals in 12 of those games.
Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than they have against West Ham (12) under Klopp.
West Ham have lost 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool, with both exceptions in this run coming at home (1-1 in February 2019, 3-2 in November 2021).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
West Ham – 21.7%
Liverpool – 52.5%
Draw – 25.8%
Tuchel insists Bayern Munich coach search not affecting team's focus
Bayern Munich's search for coach Thomas Tuchel's successor is not distracting the team from their preparations for next week's Champions League semi-final first leg against Real Madrid or their final Bundesliga matches.
That was the vow from Tuchel before Bayern first face Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday with the league title already secured by Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayern will part ways with Tuchel at the end of a disappointing domestic season, a year earlier than his contract.
Austria coach Ralf Rangnick confirmed this week there had been contact with Bayern while several other coaches have been linked with the club.
Tuchel, however, said the team was shutting out any such distractions as they chase a spot in the Champions League final.
"In the next 11 days it can only be football and the goals we can still reach," Tuchel told a press conference.
"We want to collect points [in the Bundesliga] to get the best result and reach the Champions League final.
"For anything else, there is just no capacity at the moment, whether it is comfortable or uncomfortable despite the many issues."
With no chance of domestic silverware and Bayern battling to hold on to second place, three points ahead of third-placed Stuttgart whom they face in 10 days, Tuchel said it was clear Tuesday's game against Real Madrid was on everyone's mind already.
"I can accept and it is important that we all accept it that there is this background noise against Frankfurt," Tuchel said.
"We don't have to tell ourselves a fairytale that we are only thinking 100% about Eintracht.
"There is this background noise that the Real Madrid game plays a role. When I get my coffee in the morning people don't say 'good luck for tomorrow' they say 'good luck for Tuesday' to me."
Bayern still have some injury concerns for the coming games with Dayot Upamecano doubtful after twisting an ankle in training and Leroy Sane racing to get fit in time for Tuesday.
Tuchel said: "We have a test [against Frankfurt] and either we are distracted or we find solutions. Put on ear plugs or headphones and study for the test. That is my task."
The former Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain boss was also asked about over 12,000 Bayern supporters signing a petition asking for him to remain at the club.
"Even though this topic is good for me when they [the fans] wish you to stay, it's not something that is a priority and it isn't allowed to be a priority," he said.
"Whether it's pleasant or unpleasant, I don't allow myself to be influenced by it. We're only focusing on every day counting towards our goals and there is no exception here.
"This question is like the neighbour that is noisy at three in the morning, if we're honest! I'll set my headphones to noise-cancelling mode and ignore that.
"This topic won't help me on Saturday and won't help me on Tuesday - and it is not my topic."
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