The Ligue 1 title tussle between Paris Saint-Germain and Lille is going to the wire, and it is Les Dogues who hold a slender advantage heading into the final day.
Lille could have won the title – their first since 2010-11 – last week had they beaten Saint-Etienne and PSG dropped points against Reims.
Neither of those outcomes came to fruition, however, and Lille are just one point ahead with one game left to play. It is the smallest gap between a leader and the second-placed team at this stage in a Ligue 1 campaign since 2001-02.
Christophe Galtier's team need only to beat Angers to guarantee their triumph, but the mid-table team are one of the only three sides Lille have lost to this season in Ligue 1, while PSG face Brest.
Just below the title battle, Monaco – who have a slim chance of taking top billing – and Lyon are vying for the final Champions League spot.
Monaco could yet end up at the summit, but Niko Kovac's team would finish fourth if they fail to beat Lens and Lyon defeat Nice.
At the other end of the table, there is potential for drama, with six teams between 18th-placed Nantes and 13th-placed Reims involved in a relegation scrap.
It has been a tightly fought contest throughout the season at the top of the table, but all will be decided on Sunday.
How does the predictor work?
First of all, here's how we got the data...
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position. The points total is based on an average of the predicted points from the simulations of the league outcome.
Let's see how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Lille likely to pip PSG to the post
Our model suggests that it will be Lille who hold firm to triumph this season, and claim their fourth Ligue 1 crown in the process, giving Les Dogues a 57.9 per cent chance of finishing top.
Lille did lose to Angers earlier this season, but they had won the previous three matches against them.
Angers, though, have only failed to score in two of their 18 Ligue 1 home games against Lille, doing so in their first such meeting in September 1957 (0-0) and in their most recent in February 2020 (0-2).
However, Lille's away form is superb – they have won 11 of their last 12 Ligue 1 games on the road.
Opta's AI predicts a 34 per cent chance of Lille finishing second, and an 8.9 per cent of them finishing third. The latter outcome would require Lille to lose, PSG to avoid defeat, Monaco to win, and there to be at least a six-goal swing in goal difference in the principality club's favour.
For PSG, the model offers them a 45.7 per chance of finishing second. If they drop points at all, then Lille will only need to draw to win the title, while a defeat – combined with a Monaco victory – would see Mauricio Pochettino's team finish third. Opta predict there is a 10.9 per cent chance of this happening.
There is very slim potential (3.1 per cent) for PSG to finish outside of the Champions League places and in fourth, but the goal difference swing required (17) would be bordering on the realms of impossibility.
PSG have a 40.3 per cent chance of finishing top, with Monaco not technically out of the running – they have a 2.6 per cent chance.
Monaco would need both Lille and PSG to slip up for that to occur. However, their main focus is to secure Champions League football.
Opta suggests this may be tough, with Lyon – led by the in-form Memphis Depay – given a 43.2 per cent chance of snatching third place, with Monaco destined for fourth. This is due in part to their poor record away at Lens in Ligue 1, where they have won just one of their last 14 top-flight games.
Bad luck for Brest
In the relegation scrap, Opta predict that Nantes, who currently occupy 18th place or Brest are the most likely teams to have to play-off against Toulouse or Grenoble Foot for a place in next season's Ligue 1.
Brest of course face PSG, and they have lost their last three Ligue 1 home games against the capital club, giving them a 50 per cent chance of finishing 18th.
Nantes are in action against Montpellier, and the model suggests their most likely finishing position is also in the bottom three (35.8 per cent), though only one unwanted place is up for grabs.
Reims, who sit in 13th, are not mathematically safe, with only two points between them and Nantes, but they are predicted to secure their top-flight status for next season.
Lorient, Bordeaux and Strasbourg could also be dragged into the relegation/promotion play-off place.
JFF identifies potential candidates for Reggae Girlz head coach position; will begin interview process this week
The Jamaica Football Federation has reportedly identified potential candidates to fill the head coaching vacancy with the Senior Women’s National Team.
The position was opened after the JFF decided not to renew the contract of former head coach, Lorne Donaldson, after the team lost a pair of Olympic Qualifying fixtures to Canada in September.
“The interviewing process will begin this week, as we have received a number of applications from experienced and qualified individuals. Soon, a short list will be selected for final interviews. Importantly, this also includes the reengagement of members of the coaching and technical staff,” a post on the federation’s Instagram page stated on Monday.
“The JFF is committed to ensuring that the women’s program is given the best opportunity to succeed and continue the significant accomplishments that have brought much pride to Jamaica,” the statement continued.
Donaldson was appointed Reggae Girlz head coach in June 2022 and led the national women’s team to their second consecutive qualification for the FIFA Women’s World Cup. At the World Cup, he took Jamaica to a historic round of 16 after drawing with France and Brazil and defeating Panama in the group stage.
Jamie Carragher says VAR at a ‘crisis point’ after Liverpool offside controversy
VAR is now at a “crisis point”, according to pundit and former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher.
Liverpool had a Luis Diaz goal incorrectly ruled out for offside during Saturday’s Premier League defeat at Tottenham due to miscommunication between VAR Darren England and on-field referee Simon Hooper.
The match was goalless at the time of the incident, with the Reds – who were eventually reduced to nine men – going on to lose 2-1 to an own goal from Joel Matip deep into stoppage time.
Liverpool issued a statement on Sunday night saying they would “explore the range of options available given the clear need for escalation and resolution”.
The PA news agency understands the Reds have now formally requested the audio of the conversation between the two from referees’ body Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL).
Former Liverpool and England defender Carragher was analysing the incident ahead of Monday night’s live Premier League game between Fulham and Chelsea at Craven Cottage.
The Sky Sports pundit believes the whole system is now under more pressure than ever.
“I don’t think the feeling around VAR has ever been lower – I do feel as if this is almost like a crisis point for VAR in this country,” Carragher said on Sky Sports.
“It is not just on the back of this decision, it is what has been happening all season, like when there was a situation with Wolves against Manchester United (in the first Monday night televised match of the new season).
“I don’t want to pile on to an official or (PGMOL chief refereeing officer) Howard Webb, I could imagine they feel absolutely awful (over) the last couple of days.
“I am not into the conspiracy theories, that this one favours that team or another – no-one gains anything from this in terms of the officials.
“We have all been there in our jobs and made mistakes, so I feel for them – but it is an horrendous mistake, that is unprecedented and you can’t actually quite believe the explanation that has been given.”
PGMOL issued a statement on Saturday night acknowledging a “significant error” had occurred. Hooper and his assistants had given offside against Diaz on the field, and PA understands that although England followed the correct procedure in drawing lines, he lost focus and mistakenly thought the initial on-field decision had been onside.
This resulted in him issuing a ‘check complete’ notice to Hooper, rather than advising of an intervention and the goal being awarded.
Once the officials realised an error had been made, play had restarted and VAR protocols state that once that has happened, there is no way back to revisit a decision.
Carragher, though, believes the incident could have been quickly resolved at the time.
“They were saying they were staying with protocol about not allowing to stop the game. I don’t believe that. They panicked. They froze,” he said.
“I know that’s the rule, but that’s a red-tape rule. If they had reversed it, we’d have been praising their leadership.
“There’s talk that the officials didn’t know until half-time that a mistake had been made, when that ball goes out of play [after the incident] the look on that referee’s face, it’s a look of something has gone wrong.
“I think it’s unbelievable that all the parties involved haven’t released the audio. I find it unfathomable.
“The only way Howard Webb and PGMOL will gain any sort of credibility back was to get it out there.
“The problem they have now is the explanation is so random and bizarre, the longer this goes on, the more people will think they’re trying to put a story together.”
Arsenal suffer travel delays ahead of Champions League tie in Lens
Arsenal’s preparations for their first away Champions League game in six-and-a-half years were thrown into chaos due to travel delays.
Mikel Arteta’s side face Lens in their Group B clash at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis on Tuesday night but had to cancel their pre-match press conference on the eve of the game.
The Arsenal boss was due to speak to the media with France defender William Saliba at 1900 local time but their chartered flight was grounded at Luton airport.
The Gunners had trained at London Colney at 1130BST before being due to travel to France on Monday afternoon but bad weather saw those plans cancelled.
The PA news agency understands Arsenal will not face a fine as the cancellation was out of their control – with the squad waiting over three hours at Luton before being able to make the short hop over the channel.
Among the travelling party stuck at Luton were Bukayo Saka – who was passed fit to travel despite limping off injured at Bournemouth on Saturday – and fit-again midfielder Thomas Partey.
Partey had been sidelined since August with a groin injury and the club hoped to have him back for the visit of Manchester City on Sunday.
“He’s progressed really well in the last two weeks and he managed to train in the last two or three days with the team and that’s great news for us, obviously,” Arteta said of the Ghana international.
“I think his progression in the last week has been very good. He might have some exposure tomorrow depending how the game goes.”
Both Arteta and Saliba later spoke to a small number of reporters over the phone and the latter insisted everything would be fine heading into the game.
Asked if he was confident the team would still be at their best, he replied: “Yes, of course. We have to arrive first but tomorrow is another day and we will give our best against Lens.
“It is a really good feeling. My second game in the Champions League with Arsenal. I can’t wait to play in France so it is a good feeling.
“We know it won’t be an easy game. It is a really good team who finished second last season.
“They didn’t start well but in the last two or three games, they are better so we have to be focused on tomorrow and give our best.”
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