The Ligue 1 title tussle between Paris Saint-Germain and Lille is going to the wire, and it is Les Dogues who hold a slender advantage heading into the final day.
Lille could have won the title – their first since 2010-11 – last week had they beaten Saint-Etienne and PSG dropped points against Reims.
Neither of those outcomes came to fruition, however, and Lille are just one point ahead with one game left to play. It is the smallest gap between a leader and the second-placed team at this stage in a Ligue 1 campaign since 2001-02.
Christophe Galtier's team need only to beat Angers to guarantee their triumph, but the mid-table team are one of the only three sides Lille have lost to this season in Ligue 1, while PSG face Brest.
Just below the title battle, Monaco – who have a slim chance of taking top billing – and Lyon are vying for the final Champions League spot.
Monaco could yet end up at the summit, but Niko Kovac's team would finish fourth if they fail to beat Lens and Lyon defeat Nice.
At the other end of the table, there is potential for drama, with six teams between 18th-placed Nantes and 13th-placed Reims involved in a relegation scrap.
It has been a tightly fought contest throughout the season at the top of the table, but all will be decided on Sunday.
How does the predictor work?
First of all, here's how we got the data...
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position. The points total is based on an average of the predicted points from the simulations of the league outcome.
Let's see how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Lille likely to pip PSG to the post
Our model suggests that it will be Lille who hold firm to triumph this season, and claim their fourth Ligue 1 crown in the process, giving Les Dogues a 57.9 per cent chance of finishing top.
Lille did lose to Angers earlier this season, but they had won the previous three matches against them.
Angers, though, have only failed to score in two of their 18 Ligue 1 home games against Lille, doing so in their first such meeting in September 1957 (0-0) and in their most recent in February 2020 (0-2).
However, Lille's away form is superb – they have won 11 of their last 12 Ligue 1 games on the road.
Opta's AI predicts a 34 per cent chance of Lille finishing second, and an 8.9 per cent of them finishing third. The latter outcome would require Lille to lose, PSG to avoid defeat, Monaco to win, and there to be at least a six-goal swing in goal difference in the principality club's favour.
For PSG, the model offers them a 45.7 per chance of finishing second. If they drop points at all, then Lille will only need to draw to win the title, while a defeat – combined with a Monaco victory – would see Mauricio Pochettino's team finish third. Opta predict there is a 10.9 per cent chance of this happening.
There is very slim potential (3.1 per cent) for PSG to finish outside of the Champions League places and in fourth, but the goal difference swing required (17) would be bordering on the realms of impossibility.
PSG have a 40.3 per cent chance of finishing top, with Monaco not technically out of the running – they have a 2.6 per cent chance.
Monaco would need both Lille and PSG to slip up for that to occur. However, their main focus is to secure Champions League football.
Opta suggests this may be tough, with Lyon – led by the in-form Memphis Depay – given a 43.2 per cent chance of snatching third place, with Monaco destined for fourth. This is due in part to their poor record away at Lens in Ligue 1, where they have won just one of their last 14 top-flight games.
Bad luck for Brest
In the relegation scrap, Opta predict that Nantes, who currently occupy 18th place or Brest are the most likely teams to have to play-off against Toulouse or Grenoble Foot for a place in next season's Ligue 1.
Brest of course face PSG, and they have lost their last three Ligue 1 home games against the capital club, giving them a 50 per cent chance of finishing 18th.
Nantes are in action against Montpellier, and the model suggests their most likely finishing position is also in the bottom three (35.8 per cent), though only one unwanted place is up for grabs.
Reims, who sit in 13th, are not mathematically safe, with only two points between them and Nantes, but they are predicted to secure their top-flight status for next season.
Lorient, Bordeaux and Strasbourg could also be dragged into the relegation/promotion play-off place.
St. Louis City v LA Galaxy: Reus sets sights on silverware after dream start
Marco Reus is desperate to bring silverware to the LA Galaxy after making a flying start to his time in MLS, with St. Louis City the destination for his first road game on Sunday.
Reus registered a goal and an assist on debut last week as the Galaxy beat Atlanta United 2-0, maintaining their grip on top spot in the Western Conference.
The Galaxy are five points clear of local rivals Los Angeles FC at the top of the standings ahead of Sunday's trip to St. Louis, who are 13th and 10 points adrift of the playoff picture.
Reus' arrival in Los Angeles has caused plenty of fanfare, but he is focused solely on the team's collective aims.
"It's not about me, it's about the team," he said. "We want to be champions. So we take it game by game.
"Besides the traffic, it's really amazing. The people are so friendly. The weather, it's really nice. When you wake up in the morning and the sun is shining, you start the day differently.
"So I'm really, really happy every morning I come into the dressing room. I'm just happy and excited."
St. Louis played out a thrilling 4-4 draw with the Portland Timbers last week, twice throwing away a two-goal lead to leave interim coach John Hackworth bewildered.
"Really don't know what to say," Hackworth said. "It's hard to imagine coming to a place like this and scoring four goals, being up, and then just losing one-versus-one defensive battles.
"Sometimes, the number of goals you give up, or the number of goals you score, can hide a lot of the transition moments.
"An easy way to prevent some of these defensive miscues from happening is to just be better with the ball."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
St. Louis City – Eduard Lowen
Lowen scored his fourth goal of the MLS season last time out, converting from the penalty spot as St. Louis drew 4-4 with the Timbers.
Only Joao Klauss, with five goals, has outscored him for St. Louis this term.
LA Galaxy – Marco Reus
Reus is one of 20 players in MLS history to record a goal and an assist on his regular-season debut.
He is also the fifth Galaxy player to do so, after Steven Gerrard, Andreas Herzog, Giovani dos Santos and Sasha Victorine. No other team have had more than two players achieve the feat.
MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW
The Galaxy have won 10 of their last 13 regular-season matches, the first time they have done so in a single season since 2011. LA have not recorded 11 wins in a span of 14 matches within a single regular season in the post-shootout era (since 2000).
It would be no surprise to see the points shared in this one, though. All three meetings between St. Louis and the Galaxy have ended level, all with different scorelines (1-1, 2-2, 3-3).
St. Louis have only won one of the last six matches in which they have held the lead in regular-season play dating back to the beginning of June (four draws, one defeat).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
St. Louis City – 35.8%
LA Galaxy – 38.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Raphinha hails Barcelona after statement win over Valladolid
Barcelona forward Raphinha believes the team have laid down a statement of their intent by starting the season with four straight wins in LaLiga.
Raphinha scored the first hat-trick of his career and also delivered two assists on Saturday, as Barca crushed Real Valladolid 7-0 at Camp Nou.
Hansi Flick's side already possess a four-point cushion at the top of the table after also recording victories over Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano.
Raphinha believes their results have demonstrated the club got things right in the transfer market, telling Movistar: "Today's game has shown that there is no need for anyone else to come. We are very happy because of that.
"We are in very good shape. The team is working hard. Today's result shows what we are working for.
"We saw that the coach was on the sidelines asking for more goals and that's our mentality.
"We are hungry and want to score as many goals as we can. When we are dominant like we have been, the best way to respect our rivals is not taking the foot off the gas."
Raphinha was one of the players who faced criticism during Barca's trophyless 2023-24 campaign and was rumoured to be on his way out ahead of the new season.
The Blaugrana again battled financial restrictions throughout the window, allowing Ilkay Gundogan to leave in order to secure the registration of new arrival Dani Olmo.
With his future now certain, Raphinha is keen to nail down a starting spot and contribute on a regular basis.
"I don't know if today's was my best game, but it's certainly among my best. I will try to play even better and as much as I can," the Brazilian said.
"I'm very happy to be able to help the team. I feel good. I knew that this season would be very important for me. I'm looking for my best version to help my team-mates and be more confident."
Lopetegui rues missed opportunity as West Ham lose to Man City
West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui was not encouraged by the performance of his team despite losing 3-1 at home to Manchester City in their third league game.
“It is true that City is one of the best teams around the world for sure… but it is also true too that in the second half we have been very close to a draw,” he said speaking to BBC Match of the Day.
“I think we have played one very good second half. The start has been very good for us too.”
West Ham threatened for extended periods of the match and had chances to level the match at 2-1 down, with the best coming from Mohammed Kudus as he smashed a shot against the bar in the second half.
They also started the game brightly before going a goal down inside 10 minutes.
“In my mind we started very well, being aggressive,” said Lopetegui.
“We know in this plan normally they have initiative, it’s very difficult to not concede initiative then. That’s why you have to do a lot of very good things to overcome them.
“In the second half we had chances, I think we kept the ball much more, much more, and didn't concede a lot of chances."
But the hosts were ultimately undone by the brilliant finishing of Erling Haaland, who scored his second hat-trick in as many matches.
“He is one of the best players in the world, that's why he plays for Manchester City,” he said.
“You have to compete with these kind of players. City has the power and the quality to create chances.”
But ultimately, he was left frustrated at the sense of a missed opportunity and that his team were unable to earn themselves a draw that hadn’t seemed implausible during the match.
“Today I think the first goal was a pity for us but I’ve said it. I was happy with the performance think we were able to draw but again they damage us,” he said.
“Against this kind of team, if you make a mistake they don’t forgive. This is the difference they have… A little mistake they punish you, they punish us.
“We have to improve, to know to compete against this kind of team to be close to perfection.
“Don't make mistakes, be calm, defend well… we have quality players too.”
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