Ligue 1 title race predictor: Opta AI forecasts finest of margins as PSG battle Lille

By Sports Desk May 23, 2021

The Ligue 1 title tussle between Paris Saint-Germain and Lille is going to the wire, and it is Les Dogues who hold a slender advantage heading into the final day.

Lille could have won the title – their first since 2010-11 – last week had they beaten Saint-Etienne and PSG dropped points against Reims.

Neither of those outcomes came to fruition, however, and Lille are just one point ahead with one game left to play. It is the smallest gap between a leader and the second-placed team at this stage in a Ligue 1 campaign since 2001-02.

Christophe Galtier's team need only to beat Angers to guarantee their triumph, but the mid-table team are one of the only three sides Lille have lost to this season in Ligue 1, while PSG face Brest.

Just below the title battle, Monaco – who have a slim chance of taking top billing – and Lyon are vying for the final Champions League spot. 

Monaco could yet end up at the summit, but Niko Kovac's team would finish fourth if they fail to beat Lens and Lyon defeat Nice.

At the other end of the table, there is potential for drama, with six teams between 18th-placed Nantes and 13th-placed Reims involved in a relegation scrap.

It has been a tightly fought contest throughout the season at the top of the table, but all will be decided on Sunday.

How does the predictor work?

First of all, here's how we got the data...

The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.

The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.

The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position. The points total is based on an average of the predicted points from the simulations of the league outcome.

Let's see how the model now predicts the final league table will look...

 

Lille likely to pip PSG to the post

Our model suggests that it will be Lille who hold firm to triumph this season, and claim their fourth Ligue 1 crown in the process, giving Les Dogues a 57.9 per cent chance of finishing top.

Lille did lose to Angers earlier this season, but they had won the previous three matches against them.

Angers, though, have only failed to score in two of their 18 Ligue 1 home games against Lille, doing so in their first such meeting in September 1957 (0-0) and in their most recent in February 2020 (0-2).

However, Lille's away form is superb – they have won 11 of their last 12 Ligue 1 games on the road.

Opta's AI predicts a 34 per cent chance of Lille finishing second, and an 8.9 per cent of them finishing third. The latter outcome would require Lille to lose, PSG to avoid defeat, Monaco to win, and there to be at least a six-goal swing in goal difference in the principality club's favour.

For PSG, the model offers them a 45.7 per chance of finishing second. If they drop points at all, then Lille will only need to draw to win the title, while a defeat – combined with a Monaco victory – would see Mauricio Pochettino's team finish third. Opta predict there is a 10.9 per cent chance of this happening.

There is very slim potential (3.1 per cent) for PSG to finish outside of the Champions League places and in fourth, but the goal difference swing required (17) would be bordering on the realms of impossibility.

PSG have a 40.3 per cent chance of finishing top, with Monaco not technically out of the running – they have a 2.6 per cent chance.

Monaco would need both Lille and PSG to slip up for that to occur. However, their main focus is to secure Champions League football.

Opta suggests this may be tough, with Lyon – led by the in-form Memphis Depay – given a 43.2 per cent chance of snatching third place, with Monaco destined for fourth. This is due in part to their poor record away at Lens in Ligue 1, where they have won just one of their last 14 top-flight games.

Bad luck for Brest

In the relegation scrap, Opta predict that Nantes, who currently occupy 18th place or Brest are the most likely teams to have to play-off against Toulouse or Grenoble Foot for a place in next season's Ligue 1.

Brest of course face PSG, and they have lost their last three Ligue 1 home games against the capital club, giving them a 50 per cent chance of finishing 18th.

Nantes are in action against Montpellier, and the model suggests their most likely finishing position is also in the bottom three (35.8 per cent), though only one unwanted place is up for grabs.

Reims, who sit in 13th, are not mathematically safe, with only two points between them and Nantes, but they are predicted to secure their top-flight status for next season.

Lorient, Bordeaux and Strasbourg could also be dragged into the relegation/promotion play-off place.

Related items

  • Mikel Arteta says Pep Guardiola ‘best coach in the world’ ahead of Man City game Mikel Arteta says Pep Guardiola ‘best coach in the world’ ahead of Man City game

    Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta has hailed Pep Guardiola as “the best coach in the world” as the close friends prepare for a potentially seismic game in the Premier League title battle this weekend.

    Manchester City play host to their title rivals at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday having won the last seven home meetings between the two sides.

    Arsenal finally managed to record a rare victory over City when they won the reverse fixture at the Emirates Stadium earlier this season and go into the weekend top of the table – above Liverpool on goal difference with Guardiola’s reigning champions a point further back.

    The two Spaniards are good friends, Arteta having worked under Guardiola at City between 2016 and 2019 and played his part in two Premier League title wins.

    Now though, they will once again be in opposite dugouts as Arteta prepares to lock horns with a manager he believes is without rival.

    Asked if his relationship with Guardiola was different now, Arteta replied: “It had to change.

    “My admiration and what I feel for him certainly hasn’t. In my opinion he’s the best coach in the world by a mile and he’s one of the nicest people that I’ve met in football.

    “Certainly he’s one of the ones that I’ve had the most fun and laughter working with. That’s going to stay there forever.

    “At the moment the rules are what they are and you’re going to have to adapt to it.”

    Having sparred for the title last season, before City ultimately pipped Arsenal for the trophy en route to winning the treble, Arteta is keen to go one better this term.

    “Probably I would prefer to do it against someone who I don’t have those feelings for but that’s not a choice,” he added.

    “It’s what it is. We both want to win.

    “We’ll prepare the game very well. You cannot feel different about the person, but professionally you have to act differently.”

    Arteta confirmed forwards Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli could feature having missed the international break with minor injuries, while Gabriel Magalhaes is also expected to be fit enough to start.

    The challenge for Arsenal is not only end a nine-year wait for a league win at City but to also emulate their rivals in establishing themselves as a major power in European football.

    “They have raised the bar in this league and football in general to levels that haven’t been seen before,” he added on City’s success.

    “That’s the beauty of this sport because it makes you better and challenges you more. You have to keep up with that pace and that’s what we’re trying to do.

    “It’s a massive game for both teams. It will give us a huge boost again if we go there and win it. Still there is a long, long, long way after to make the ground to win it.”

  • Celtic will not risk Callum McGregor ahead of Rangers showdown Celtic will not risk Callum McGregor ahead of Rangers showdown

    Celtic captain Callum McGregor has a “very good chance” of facing Rangers but will not be risked on Livingston’s artificial surface.

    Manager Brendan Rodgers will delay McGregor’s comeback until after Sunday’s cinch Premiership contest at the Tony Macaroni Arena.

    The midfielder has been troubled by Achilles pain and has not featured since coming off at half-time during Celtic’s 7-1 win over Dundee on February 28.

    Rodgers said: “Callum has been out on the field, but we are not risking him in this game. But he should hopefully re-join training next week.”

    When asked if McGregor had a chance of facing Rangers, Rodgers replied: “Yes, a very good chance.”

    Reo Hatate is set to make his return after playing only 19 minutes for Celtic since October. The Japan midfielder briefly returned from a hamstring injury at the start of the year only to suffer calf problems during the Asian Cup.

    Cameron Carter-Vickers is also expected to play after being left out of the United States squad amid ongoing hamstring issues but Celtic could again be without wingers Yang Hyun-jun and Luis Palma, the latter of whom has a calf injury.

    Rodgers said: “Cameron is fine, Reo Hatate is back and available in the squad, which is great news. He has worked very hard, he played a bounce game in the time off and he has built up his fitness.

    “Yang has come back (from South Korea duty) with a bit of tightness so we just need to make sure that’s nothing more serious. He played two 60 minutes and a 30 minutes when he was away, so he has come back a little bit tight. We just have to check and make sure he is OK.

    “Luis Palma will probably just miss out on this weekend but will hopefully be available soon.”

    Rodgers admits Livingston’s artificial pitch comes into his thinking when making his team selection.

    “You certainly have to consider it,” he said. “Like, for example Callum, you have to think along that route.

    “There’s no doubt it comes into your thinking, especially on the back of an international break when players have been travelling.

    “I think we are all hopeful in the future that we will have quality grass pitches here that the supporters can see the best possible game they can, but at this moment we play on the plastic pitch so we have to deal with that.

    “Of course that means we have to think about team selection and the welfare of the player, and obviously from Callum’s perspective it’s probably too much of a risk for us.”

  • Jurgen Klopp says Liverpool assessing Andy Robertson injury ‘day by day’ Jurgen Klopp says Liverpool assessing Andy Robertson injury ‘day by day’

    Jurgen Klopp says Liverpool will take things “day by day” with Andy Robertson as he indicated the left-back’s injury was not serious.

    Robertson was being assessed by the Reds after coming off in the first half of Scotland’s friendly against Northern Ireland on Tuesday due to an ankle issue.

    Speaking at his press conference ahead of Sunday’s Premier League home clash with Brighton, Liverpool boss Klopp said: “Robbo, we take it a little bit day by day, so we will see.

    “He will not train today but it’s not as bad, so that’s fine.”

    Klopp – whose side after the Brighton game continue their title bid by hosting Sheffield United next Thursday, then playing Manchester United away three days later – also reported that Darwin Nunez, a withdrawal from Uruguay’s squad as the international break got under way, was “fine”.

    Ibrahima Konate, absent for Liverpool’s last three games, is set to be available this weekend as well, and while Klopp said he was unsure if that applied to Curtis Jones, the midfielder has been training.

    Liverpool have also had Alisson Becker, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota on the sidelines, and Klopp added: “The other boys, from next week on, step by step I think they will join parts of team training, and then team training, so we will see what we do with that.

    “They’re not too far away but not in yet. They all make their steps, so it’s positive.”

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.