The Ligue 1 title tussle between Paris Saint-Germain and Lille is going to the wire, and it is Les Dogues who hold a slender advantage heading into the final day.
Lille could have won the title – their first since 2010-11 – last week had they beaten Saint-Etienne and PSG dropped points against Reims.
Neither of those outcomes came to fruition, however, and Lille are just one point ahead with one game left to play. It is the smallest gap between a leader and the second-placed team at this stage in a Ligue 1 campaign since 2001-02.
Christophe Galtier's team need only to beat Angers to guarantee their triumph, but the mid-table team are one of the only three sides Lille have lost to this season in Ligue 1, while PSG face Brest.
Just below the title battle, Monaco – who have a slim chance of taking top billing – and Lyon are vying for the final Champions League spot.
Monaco could yet end up at the summit, but Niko Kovac's team would finish fourth if they fail to beat Lens and Lyon defeat Nice.
At the other end of the table, there is potential for drama, with six teams between 18th-placed Nantes and 13th-placed Reims involved in a relegation scrap.
It has been a tightly fought contest throughout the season at the top of the table, but all will be decided on Sunday.
How does the predictor work?
First of all, here's how we got the data...
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position. The points total is based on an average of the predicted points from the simulations of the league outcome.
Let's see how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Lille likely to pip PSG to the post
Our model suggests that it will be Lille who hold firm to triumph this season, and claim their fourth Ligue 1 crown in the process, giving Les Dogues a 57.9 per cent chance of finishing top.
Lille did lose to Angers earlier this season, but they had won the previous three matches against them.
Angers, though, have only failed to score in two of their 18 Ligue 1 home games against Lille, doing so in their first such meeting in September 1957 (0-0) and in their most recent in February 2020 (0-2).
However, Lille's away form is superb – they have won 11 of their last 12 Ligue 1 games on the road.
Opta's AI predicts a 34 per cent chance of Lille finishing second, and an 8.9 per cent of them finishing third. The latter outcome would require Lille to lose, PSG to avoid defeat, Monaco to win, and there to be at least a six-goal swing in goal difference in the principality club's favour.
For PSG, the model offers them a 45.7 per chance of finishing second. If they drop points at all, then Lille will only need to draw to win the title, while a defeat – combined with a Monaco victory – would see Mauricio Pochettino's team finish third. Opta predict there is a 10.9 per cent chance of this happening.
There is very slim potential (3.1 per cent) for PSG to finish outside of the Champions League places and in fourth, but the goal difference swing required (17) would be bordering on the realms of impossibility.
PSG have a 40.3 per cent chance of finishing top, with Monaco not technically out of the running – they have a 2.6 per cent chance.
Monaco would need both Lille and PSG to slip up for that to occur. However, their main focus is to secure Champions League football.
Opta suggests this may be tough, with Lyon – led by the in-form Memphis Depay – given a 43.2 per cent chance of snatching third place, with Monaco destined for fourth. This is due in part to their poor record away at Lens in Ligue 1, where they have won just one of their last 14 top-flight games.
Bad luck for Brest
In the relegation scrap, Opta predict that Nantes, who currently occupy 18th place or Brest are the most likely teams to have to play-off against Toulouse or Grenoble Foot for a place in next season's Ligue 1.
Brest of course face PSG, and they have lost their last three Ligue 1 home games against the capital club, giving them a 50 per cent chance of finishing 18th.
Nantes are in action against Montpellier, and the model suggests their most likely finishing position is also in the bottom three (35.8 per cent), though only one unwanted place is up for grabs.
Reims, who sit in 13th, are not mathematically safe, with only two points between them and Nantes, but they are predicted to secure their top-flight status for next season.
Lorient, Bordeaux and Strasbourg could also be dragged into the relegation/promotion play-off place.
Guardiola agrees two-year contract extension with Man City
Pep Guardiola will be Manchester City manager for at least two more seasons after 2024-25, after he signed a two-year contract extension on Thursday.
The 53-year-old was coming to the end of his City deal, which was due to expire at the end of the current campaign, but he has opted to remain at the Etihad Stadium.
The deal itself will take Guardiola's tenure at the club to over a decade, making him City's longest-serving manager since Les McDowall in 1963.
There had been suggestions that he may leave at the end of the season following the announcement that director of football Txiki Begiristain was on his way out.
Guardiola was strongly linked with the England job after Gareth Southgate resigned in the wake of their Euro 2024 final defeat, but the Football Association appointed Thomas Tuchel last month.
“Manchester City means so much to me," Guardiola said. “This is my ninth season here; we have experienced so many amazing times together. I have a really special feeling for this football club.
“That is why I am so happy to be staying for another two more seasons.
“Thank you to everyone for continuing to trust and support me – The Owner, The Chairman Khaldoon, Ferran, Txiki, the players and, of course, the fans… everyone connected to Manchester City. It has always been an honour, a pleasure and a privilege to be here.
“I have said this many times before, but I have everything a manager could ever wish for, and I appreciate that so much.
“Hopefully, now we can add more trophies to the ones we have already won. That will be my focus.”
Having been appointed in 2016, Guardiola is by some distance Manchester City's most successful manager of all time, having won 18 major trophies during his time at the club.
That list includes their first-ever Champions League triumph in 2023 and six Premier League titles, including an unprecedented four on the spin.
He also boasts a 72.04% win percentage across all competitions, which is unsurprisingly the highest of any full-time City manager in history.
Shaw at the double as Man City progress in Champions League
Khadija Shaw scored twice as Manchester City beat Hammarby 2-1 to seal their place in the Women's Champions League quarter-finals.
Gareth Taylor's team entered Thursday's game with a perfect record in Group D, and their fourth win in as many European matches ensured they finished in the top two.
Shaw—the leading scorer in the Women's Super League this season with eight goals—put them ahead in the 31st minute, driving into the area after taking in Yui Hasegawa's pass before seeing her shot deflect into the top corner.
Shaw was booked for celebrating in front of the home fans despite appearing to have objects thrown at her from the stands, and Hammarby should have levelled when Julia Blakstad fired wide 10 minutes later.
The hosts did draw level three minutes into the second half as Ellen Wangerheim tapped home while City's Laura Blindkilde Brown was down appealing for a free-kick.
That parity was short-lived, though, as Shaw blasted into the top corner from 25 yards out, taking her overall tally for this season to 12 goals in all competitions.
In Group C, meanwhile, Bayern Munich lost their perfect record as they played out a 1-1 draw with Valerenga, boosting Arsenal's hopes of topping the pile.
Jovana Damnjanovic came off the bench to put Bayern ahead 15 minutes from time in Norway, but Elise Thorsnes headed home following an 88th-minute corner to snatch a point for the hosts.
Arsenal could now move within a point of Bayern when they face Juventus in Group C's other match later on Thursday.
Girlz coach Busby eyes improved performance as 'Bunny' Shaw returns for South Africa friendlies
With Jamaica’s senior Reggae Girlz failing to register a win since beating Panama at last year’s Fifa Women’s World Cup, Head coach Hubert Busby says the two highly anticipated home friendlies against South Africa represent an opportunity to turnaround their poor run of form.
Though focused on more than just immediate results, Busby pointed out that victory in upcoming matches is part of a larger vision—a journey toward a third-consecutive World Cup appearance in 2027 and the continued development of a sustainable, competitive program for Jamaica’s women’s football.
The Girlz will take on South Africa at the Montego Bay Sports Complex on November 29 and December 2, in what will be their first matches on home soil since November 2022. It will also be the first game in Jamaica for the core group of the 2023 World Cup squad since last September’s Olympic qualifying playoff against Canada.
“It’s special to have the girls back playing in front of our fans. This is an opportunity to connect with the home crowd again, but it’s also a critical step in our preparation for what’s ahead,” Busby shared as he unveiled his 23-member squad.
“We're looking to have a good performance, then that leads to, obviously, a good result to end the year, but really it is also about us continuing to evaluate and to make the proper assessment of the players who continue to kind of move forward into World Cup qualifiers. I mean, that's really the bigger picture. So short term, let's get two good performances this week...two good results and take that into the February window,” he added.
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw has been in good form for Manchester City.
Busby’s approach reflects his determination to build on recent experiences, including lessons learned from challenging matches against top-tier opponents like Brazil and more recently, France.
Despite a compressed six-day camp prior to that encounter, in which they lost 0-3, he noted the progress made in refining their style of play, particularly in maintaining possession and executing defensive transitions.
“We didn’t get the result we wanted against France, but there were positives, especially in how we’re evolving our style of play—keeping possession and building from the back. But we need to cut down on individual mistakes and improve decision-making in critical moments. Football is a game of moments, and minimizing mistakes during crucial periods is a key focus for us,” he noted.
With the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Brazil as the ultimate target, Busby has been focused on establishing a winning culture while integrating new talent into the team.
For the last camp, he invited Taylor Hinds, Lulu Jarvis, Reanna Blades, and Natasha Thomas in to see how they fit into the programme, but none of those players are listed for the upcoming camp, in which national youth representative Destiny Powell and Naya Cardoza will be the only new players among the core group.
The coach stressed that his job is not just to guide the team to their third consecutive World Cup but to lay the groundwork for Jamaica’s participation in every World Cup thereafter, hence the consistent inclusion of young talent.
“It’s not just about Brazil in 2027. It’s about creating a sustainable pipeline of talent so we’re always competitive because their growth today will fuel our success tomorrow. So it's really important to get these young players in,” Busby shared.
“My responsibility is to get this team to the 2027 World Cup, but with that said, you know, we want to ensure that we're going to every single World Cup afterwards. Integrating young, talented players into the group to see where they are keeps the group fresh and challenges the group to keep it competitive. The success that we've had in the past, the average age, I believe was about 26 years of age, so they'll probably be about 28 going forward,” he explained.
One of the most exciting elements of the upcoming friendlies is the return of Khadija “Bunny” Shaw, who has been in rich form for Manchester City.
Busby, while highlighting her influence, both as a leader and a prolific scorer, as key to the team’s offensive strategy, also emphasized that the team’s success needs to be rooted in defence as former captain Konya Plummer, left full-back/winger Siobhan Wilson, and defensive midfielder Peyton McNamara also make a return to the fold. Wilson recently recovered from an ACL injury.
Siobhan Wilson makes a long-awaited return after an ACL injury kept her out of action for nine months.
“One of our objectives is to keep a clean sheet. Being good defensively has been the basis of our foundation of success without a doubt, but the biggest inclusion in this group is leader ‘Bunny’ Shaw. She's been in great form, as we all know, so it gives us another option up front to go around with all the as to go along with the other attacking options we have. But having her back in the group helps tremendously,” the tactician declared.
Like the Reggae Girlz, South Africa are also fresh off their participation in the 2023 World Cup, and Busby expects the games to be another tough challenge for his side, much like it was in their last meeting in 2019 when they played out a 1-1 stalemate in Durban.
“Going into these two games against a great-quality opponent in South Africa still gives us a really good litmus test in terms of where we are and, more importantly, where we need to go. So that is the objective. We want to get the wins. We want to improve performance. And we're hoping that these next two games will see a much more improved performance than we have before, that's for sure,” Busby ended.
Squad: Rebecca spencer, Liya Brooks, Allyson Swaby, Konya Plummer, Naya Cardoza, Vyan Sampson, Chantelle Swaby, Deneisha Blackwood, Siobhan Wilson, Atlanta Primus, Destiny Powell, Peyton McNamara, Jade Bailey Drew Spence, Paige Bailey-Gayle, Olufolasade Adamolekun, Khadija Shaw, Kayla McKenna, Davia Richards, Jody Brown, Shania Hayles, Shaniel Buckley, Tiffany Cameron
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