The Euro 2024 group stage is behind us, having provided fans across the continent with their fair share of thrills and spills.
From the emergence of Austria and Georgia as surprise packages to the below-par performances of England, France and the Netherlands, there has been plenty of intrigue.
Now 16 teams remain and the knockout bracket is locked in, and most of the continent's leading marksmen – including Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane and Cristiano Ronaldo – will still be dreaming of lifting the trophy on July 14.
Adding the Golden Boot alongside team success would make it a dream tournament, but the established continental stars face competition for that honour from a few breakout stars.
With the likes of Georges Mikautadze, Jamal Musiala and Niclas Fullkrug staking their own claims, who will finish top of the scoring charts?
We delve into the Opta data to assess the runners and riders, as well as those bigger names who have struggled so far.
THE FAVOURITES
Kylian Mbappe (one goal)
Mbappe endured a dreadful time at the delayed Euro 2020 tournament three years ago, and things have not gone much better this time around.
At Euro 2020, he failed to score and missed the decisive penalty as France exited in the last 16 versus Switzerland.
Only Alvaro Morata (six), Gerard Moreno and Kane (five each) missed more big chances (as defined by Opta) than Mbappe (four). His 14 total shots amounted to 1.7 expected goals (xG), with only Moreno (-2.25) and Dani Olmo (-1.86) underperforming their xG figures by a greater margin.
This year, a nasty collision with Austria defender Kevin Danso left him with a broken nose and forced him to miss France's second Group D match against the Netherlands, but he returned – donning a protective mask – to score from the penalty spot in their 1-1 draw with Poland.
That was his 13th goal for France at major tournaments (one at the Euros, 12 at World Cups), with only Michel Platini (14) netting more. With many backing France to go far despite landing on a stacked side of the bracket, that figure is certainly within reach.
If France are to go all the way, they will have to overcome Belgium in the last 16 and could face Portugal in the last eight and one of Germany or Spain in the semi-finals.
They are now fourth favourites to win the tournament, according to the Opta supercomputer, with some big-game performances from Mbappe required.
Harry Kane (one)
Like Mbappe, Kane has one goal to his name at the end of the group stage, having netted England's opener in their 1-1 draw with Denmark on matchday two.
Also like the France captain, Kane has endured a difficult tournament, starved of service in an England team that has been jeered by their own fans despite topping Group C.
Only Scotland (0.95) and Serbia (2.11) created a lower xG figure than the Three Lions (2.19) in the group stage as they toiled to five points, but a seemingly kind path through the knockout rounds has them installed as favourites once again.
Kane is a player who tends to grow into tournaments, and Gareth Southgate will be hoping his skipper does so. Kane has scored six goals in his last six appearances in the knockout stages of major tournaments for England (two in two at the 2022 World Cup, four in four at Euro 2020).
His seven goals in tournament knockout stages overall are also the most of any Three Lions player in history.
The mood around the England team has not exactly been buoyant thus far, but with the draw opening up, do not sleep on Kane's chances of firing them to glory.
Jamal Musiala (two)
Germany made a flying start to their home tournament with a 5-1 rout of Scotland and a 2-0 victory over Hungary, with Bayern Munich man Musiala scoring in both games.
They found things more difficult in a 1-1 draw with Switzerland on matchday three and are sure to be tested by Denmark in the last 16, but if Julian Nagelsmann's men are to prolong their encouraging run, Musiala will be key.
One of just six players with multiple goals to his name at this stage, Musiala has also completed the second-most dribbles at the tournament with nine, behind only Belgium's Jeremy Doku (13).
Of the six players to net more than once, only Slovakia's Ivan Schranz (two goals, 0.39 xG) has scored his goals from a lower xG figure than Musiala's 0.48, with both of the German's strikes being rasping finishes into the roof of the net.
Playing for the team whose total of 5.1 xG is the best at the tournament, Musiala should get plenty more chances to add to his tally.
Niclas Fullkrug (two)
Musiala is not the only home favourite in contention to top the goalscoring charts, though, with super sub Fullkrug proving the direct route can be an effective option with two goals in just 73 minutes of action off the bench.
Having found the top-right corner with a brilliant strike against Scotland, the Borussia Dortmund man spared the hosts' blushes on matchday three, as his stoppage-time leveller ensured they pipped Switzerland to top spot in Group A.
His goals have come from just three shots worth a total of 0.54 xG, and it will be interesting to see whether those figures are sustainable should he force his way into Nagelsmann's starting lineup.
A recent poll of 138,000 supporters conducted by German newspaper BILD found 90% of respondents wanted to see Fullkrug start the team's first knockout match.
Cody Gakpo (two)
The Netherlands have not exactly impressed so far, sneaking through Group D in third place following a 3-2 defeat to an inspired Austria team.
However, like England, they have landed on what appears to be the weaker side of the draw, boosting their hopes of going all the way.
The Opta supercomputer gave Ronald Koeman's Oranje a 5.1% chance of winning the trophy before a ball was kicked, and that is now up to 7% despite their struggles, due to Romania, Austria and Turkiye being the other teams in their quarter of the draw.
The fact they could reach the last four without playing a knockout game against any established heavyweights could see them put forward a Golden Boot contender in the shape of Gakpo.
The Liverpool man has two goals to his name already, also winning more duels (23) than any other player at the competition.
He could now become the sixth Dutchman to score three or more goals at a single edition of the Euros, after Marco van Basten (five in 1988), Dennis Bergkamp (three in 1992), Patrick Kluivert (five in 2000), Ruud van Nistelrooy (four in 2004) and Georginio Wijnaldum (thee at Euro 2020).
Georges Mikautadze (three)
None of the big names mentioned above are leading the way in the Golden Boot race, though, with that honour going to a surprise name.
Georgia's Georges Mikautadze, who plays his club football in France for recently relegated Metz, has three goals to his name.
His last two goals – against Czechia and Portugal – have come from the penalty spot, with his first being a clever sweeping finish against Turkiye on matchday one – his country's first goal at a major tournament as an independent nation.
Perhaps crucially, Mikautadze has also recorded an assist, meaning he has twice as many total goal involvements (four) as any other player at the tournament.
Assists are used as a tie-breaker in scenarios where two players are level in the Golden Boot race at the Euros, and it is not far-fetched to suggest he may already have done enough to claim the prize.
Spain great Fernando Torres won the 2012 award with just three goals, although five of the last seven editions of the European Championships have seen a player win the Golden Boot with five goals or more (Antoine Griezmann netted six in 2016).
If the continent's big names continue to misfire, Mikautadze could mark a breakout tournament with an individual honour.
THE OTHER CONTENDERS
With teams facing four more games if they are to reach the final, plenty of other players are not yet out of contention, even if they struggled in the group stage.
Alvaro Morata (one)
Morata made a flying start to the tournament as he slotted home Spain's opener in their impressive 3-0 demolition of Croatia on matchday one, but he has not scored since then, being rested for their final group game against Albania.
La Roja's success has been built on a solid defence, as they are just the second team to win all three of their group-stage matches to nil at the Euros, after Italy at the 2020 edition.
However, they are now expected to go far, and their skipper should get plenty of chances to add to his tally.
That being said, he has only converted one of his eight shots, so that conversion rate will certainly have to improve.
Cristiano Ronaldo (zero)
While Portugal topped Group F with a game to spare and could afford to rest players for Wednesday's 2-0 defeat to Georgia, Ronaldo has endured a frustrating time of things in front of goal.
He failed to score in the group stages of a major international tournament for the first time in his career, with this his 11th competition with the Selecao, who he has now played for on 50 occasions at major tournaments (a European record).
Still the European Championships' all-time leading scorer with 14 goals, his seven assists are also now the most on record (since 1968) at the competition. He will be keen to add to both of those tallies in the knockout rounds.
Romelu Lukaku (zero)
You could argue Lukaku has been both wasteful and unfortunate. He has failed to score from 10 shots totalling 1.67 xG at Euro 2024, with Antoine Griezmann the only player with zero goals from a higher underlying figure (1.84).
The Belgium man has also seen three goals ruled out following VAR checks, either for handball in the build-up or for offside. But for the technology's interventions, he would be level with Mikautadze at the top of the charts.
His chances of winning the Golden Boot have been made that much tougher by the draw, with France up next for the Red Devils after they finished second in Group E.
Christoph Baumgartner (one)
Ralf Rangnick's Austria have been one of the stories of the tournament, pipping France and the Netherlands to top spot in Group D to land on the more favourable side of the draw and leave fans dreaming of a run all the way to the final.
Only Germany have scored more goals (eight to six) or created a higher cumulative xG figure (5.1 to 3.84) than Rangnick's high-pressing side, and they could entertain again when they face Turkiye in the last 16.
With one goal and one assist, RB Leipzig attacker Baumgartner is the only Austrian with multiple goal involvements at Euro 2024, an instinctive finish against Poland demonstrating his coolness in front of goal.
Watch out for his team-mate Marcel Sabitzer, though, who scored a fantastic goal in Austria's 3-2 win over the Netherlands last time out.
The Numbers Game: Austria face Turkiye in race of Euro 2024 'dark horses'
Perennial dark horses Turkiye meet genuine dark horses Austria in an enthralling Euro 2024 last-16 tie on Tuesday.
Austria beat the Netherlands 3-2 to seal top spot in Group D ahead of the Oranje and tournament favourites France.
Turkiye, meanwhile, bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Portugal by beating Czechia 2-1 and sealing their progress from Group F as runners-up.
These teams have landed in the kinder half of the draw, with a quarter-final against Romania or the Netherlands up for grabs.
Here, we preview the clash in Leipzig using Opta data.
What's expected?
Let's dig straight into the Opta supercomputer's prediction. The model is forecasting an Austria win, giving Ralf Rangnick's team a 48.2% chance of victory.
Turkiye have a 24.9% chance, while there's a 26.8% chance of a draw, which would of course mean extra time or even penalties.
This will be the first meeting in a major tournament between Austria and Turkiye.
Austria have won two of the last three encounters in all competitions (L1), including an emphatic 6-1 victory in March of this year.
In competitive matches, however, Turkiye are unbeaten in their last five games against Austria (W4 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time; this is the first such meeting since a goalless draw in a Euro 2012 qualifier in September 2011.
You can certainly expect a full-throttle encounter, though.
Rangnick's side are a brilliant pressing unit. Only Germany (8.8) had a lower PPDA in the group stages than Austria (9.0), while they were second for tackles (61) behind Georgia (63) and top for fouls conceded (49).
Turkiye love to get on the front foot, too. Indeed, only Portugal (5.8) and Spain (5.4) had a higher non-penalty expected goals total than Turkiye (5.2) in the groups, while Vincenzo Montella's side were also third for high turnovers (28), behind Croatia (34) and Portugal (30).
Ralf's still got it
Rangnick's interim stint in charge of Manchester United did not go well, and some eyebrows were raised when Bayern Munich approached him earlier this summer.
Yet on the evidence of Euro 2024, Rangnick has still very much got it.
His team have been fantastic, and were worthy winners of Group D, scoring six goals across their last two fixtures in the first round, and only going down to France due to an unfortunate own goal from Maximilian Wober.
Since Rangnick's first game in charge in June 2022, only three European nations – Portugal (73%), Spain (67%) and Netherlands (64%) – have a higher win percentage than Austria (60%), who have won 15 of their 25 matches under him.
Austria have qualified for the knockout stages of a major tournament for only a fourth time, also doing so at the 1934 and 1954 World Cups and Euro 2020, losing 2-1 to Italy in the round of 16 in the latter.
So it is hardly like the pressure is on, but given their displays so far, there is a feeling they can really go deep in this tournament.
The kids are alright
Turkiye were well fancied at Euro 2020, but ultimately flopped as they crashed out in the first round.
This is just the third time they have reached the Euros knockouts, after 2000 and 2008, reaching the semi-finals at the latter tournament, which, of course, was co-hosted by Austria. However, they have yet to win a knockout tie in 120 minutes in the competition. They progressed past Croatia in the quarters on penalties 16 years ago, before losing 3-2 to Germany in the last four.
But this new generation holds no fear.
Only Ukraine (25 years, 281 days) had a younger average age of their starting XI in the group stages than Turkiye (26y 170d).
In fact, should Kenan Yildiz (19y 59d on the day of the game) and Arda Guler (19y 128d on the day of the game) start, it will be just the second time a nation has started two teenagers in a knockout stage game at the Euros, after Hungary against Denmark in 1964 (Ferenc Bene and Zoltan Varga).
Guler may well be crucial, especially when considering that playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu will miss this match through suspension.
Real Madrid youngster Guler is already his country's bright new hope, but he could make himself a hero here.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Austria - Christoph Baumgartner
Baumgartner has been directly involved in nine goals in his last eight appearances for Austria (six goals, three assists).
He scored and assisted in the group stage, becoming the first Austrian player to do so in a single European Championship tournament, and first at a major tournament since Gerhard Rodax at the 1990 World Cup.
Baumgartner will be back playing on home turf in this match, too. He plies his trade for RB Leipzig.
Turkiye - Ferdi Kadioglu
Full-back Kadioglu created more chances from open play than any other player in the group stages (10), while only Mykola Matviienko (25) and Jeremy Doku (23) recorded more progressive carries of 10 metres or more (22).
He is certainly a player Austria need to keep a close eye on.
Douglas Luiz completes €50m Juventus transfer
Juventus have completed the signing of Brazil international Douglas Luiz from Aston Villa.
Luiz was a pivotal feature in Unai Emery's midfield last season, as Villa qualified for the Champions League.
However, the club required sales in order to comply with the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability Regulations (PSR).
Villa have sold youngsters Tim Iroegbunam and Omari Kellyman to Everton and Chelsea respectively, with winger Lewis Dobbin signing from the Toffees and full-back Ian Maatsen joining from the Blues.
Luiz, though, was always likely to be the big sale Villa required to get over the line, and that deal, worth €50million (£42m) has now gone through.
The 26-year-old, who is on international duty with Brazil at the Copa America, has signed a five-year deal with Juve.
In return, Villa are expected to sign Juve youngsters Samuel Iling-Junior and midfielder Enzo Barrenechea in a separate deal worth up to £18.6m (€22m).
They have also been linked with a move for Luton Town's Ross Barkley, who played for the Villans in the 2020-21 season.
Over the past two league campaigns, Luiz has created the most chances (98), teed up the most shots from a set-piece (42), made the most interceptions (63) and tackles (130) of any player in Villa's squad.
Spalletti still searching for answers but will stay on as Italy coach
Luciano Spalletti has said Italian fans have not seen the best he can offer yet after it was confirmed he would remain as Azzurri coach.
And the former Napoli boss promised that he will continue to freshen up Italy's squad, adding he has not been given the answers he wanted from the selection he made for Euro 2024.
Italy put in a poor display as they lost 2-0 to Switzerland on Saturday, with the holders crashing out of the tournament having managed just one win from their four games.
But on Sunday, FIGC president Gabriele Gravina reiterated the organisation's backing of Spalletti, who replaced Roberto Mancini last year.
"We have nothing to hide, but we must continue to take responsibility," Gravina said, as quoted by Football Italia.
"There was a long chat with the coach yesterday and I think that it is unthinkable to solve the problems by abandoning a multi-year project after eight to nine months.
"Central to our project is a coach who has been here for nine to 10 months, who has not always had all the players available."
Spalletti's task will be to guide Italy to the 2026 World Cup, with the Azzurri having failed to qualify for the last two editions of that competition.
But the 65-year-old wants to do that by "rejuvenating" Italy's squad.
The Azzurri had the fifth-youngest squad at Euro 2024, with an average age of 26 years and 348 days when the tournament began.
"Yesterday's match took us back down to zero and we'll start again from there," he said.
"I will rejuvenate this squad and try to create a group. I wasn't given the answers I was looking for regarding leadership. The future will be younger with new energy and strength."
Spalletti added: "You haven't seen [the best of me] over these 10 months.
"I was told that I raised the intensity in training too much, that I told fairytales to motivate the players, but that's my life. You always need examples to follow otherwise there is no path to follow.
"I came in when there was an immediate urgency for results and given what was required, we were looking good up to a certain point. We were unable to grow in this mini-journey we took yesterday, we took a significant step backwards and that cannot be accepted. But we will start again from there. I know what to do and I will put it into practice."
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