Perennial dark horses Turkiye meet genuine dark horses Austria in an enthralling Euro 2024 last-16 tie on Tuesday.
Austria beat the Netherlands 3-2 to seal top spot in Group D ahead of the Oranje and tournament favourites France.
Turkiye, meanwhile, bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Portugal by beating Czechia 2-1 and sealing their progress from Group F as runners-up.
These teams have landed in the kinder half of the draw, with a quarter-final against Romania or the Netherlands up for grabs.
Here, we preview the clash in Leipzig using Opta data.
What's expected?
Let's dig straight into the Opta supercomputer's prediction. The model is forecasting an Austria win, giving Ralf Rangnick's team a 48.2% chance of victory.
Turkiye have a 24.9% chance, while there's a 26.8% chance of a draw, which would of course mean extra time or even penalties.
This will be the first meeting in a major tournament between Austria and Turkiye.
Austria have won two of the last three encounters in all competitions (L1), including an emphatic 6-1 victory in March of this year.
In competitive matches, however, Turkiye are unbeaten in their last five games against Austria (W4 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time; this is the first such meeting since a goalless draw in a Euro 2012 qualifier in September 2011.
You can certainly expect a full-throttle encounter, though.
Rangnick's side are a brilliant pressing unit. Only Germany (8.8) had a lower PPDA in the group stages than Austria (9.0), while they were second for tackles (61) behind Georgia (63) and top for fouls conceded (49).
Turkiye love to get on the front foot, too. Indeed, only Portugal (5.8) and Spain (5.4) had a higher non-penalty expected goals total than Turkiye (5.2) in the groups, while Vincenzo Montella's side were also third for high turnovers (28), behind Croatia (34) and Portugal (30).
Ralf's still got it
Rangnick's interim stint in charge of Manchester United did not go well, and some eyebrows were raised when Bayern Munich approached him earlier this summer.
Yet on the evidence of Euro 2024, Rangnick has still very much got it.
His team have been fantastic, and were worthy winners of Group D, scoring six goals across their last two fixtures in the first round, and only going down to France due to an unfortunate own goal from Maximilian Wober.
Since Rangnick's first game in charge in June 2022, only three European nations – Portugal (73%), Spain (67%) and Netherlands (64%) – have a higher win percentage than Austria (60%), who have won 15 of their 25 matches under him.
Austria have qualified for the knockout stages of a major tournament for only a fourth time, also doing so at the 1934 and 1954 World Cups and Euro 2020, losing 2-1 to Italy in the round of 16 in the latter.
So it is hardly like the pressure is on, but given their displays so far, there is a feeling they can really go deep in this tournament.
The kids are alright
Turkiye were well fancied at Euro 2020, but ultimately flopped as they crashed out in the first round.
This is just the third time they have reached the Euros knockouts, after 2000 and 2008, reaching the semi-finals at the latter tournament, which, of course, was co-hosted by Austria. However, they have yet to win a knockout tie in 120 minutes in the competition. They progressed past Croatia in the quarters on penalties 16 years ago, before losing 3-2 to Germany in the last four.
But this new generation holds no fear.
Only Ukraine (25 years, 281 days) had a younger average age of their starting XI in the group stages than Turkiye (26y 170d).
In fact, should Kenan Yildiz (19y 59d on the day of the game) and Arda Guler (19y 128d on the day of the game) start, it will be just the second time a nation has started two teenagers in a knockout stage game at the Euros, after Hungary against Denmark in 1964 (Ferenc Bene and Zoltan Varga).
Guler may well be crucial, especially when considering that playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu will miss this match through suspension.
Real Madrid youngster Guler is already his country's bright new hope, but he could make himself a hero here.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Austria - Christoph Baumgartner
Baumgartner has been directly involved in nine goals in his last eight appearances for Austria (six goals, three assists).
He scored and assisted in the group stage, becoming the first Austrian player to do so in a single European Championship tournament, and first at a major tournament since Gerhard Rodax at the 1990 World Cup.
Baumgartner will be back playing on home turf in this match, too. He plies his trade for RB Leipzig.
Turkiye - Ferdi Kadioglu
Full-back Kadioglu created more chances from open play than any other player in the group stages (10), while only Mykola Matviienko (25) and Jeremy Doku (23) recorded more progressive carries of 10 metres or more (22).
He is certainly a player Austria need to keep a close eye on.
Southgate salutes England's 'togetherness and spirit' but acknowledges need for improvement
Gareth Southgate hailed the togetherness and spirit demonstrated by England, but acknowledged the need to improve ahead of their Euro 2024 quarter-final with Switzerland.
The Three Lions were considered one of the pre-tournament favourites to go all the way in Germany, but have produced generally underwhelming displays in their four matches so far.
England topped Group B despite winning just one of their three games, and were just seconds away from a humbling last-16 exit against Slovakia, until Jude Bellingham's sublime acrobatic effort spared their blushes.
Harry Kane then completed the turnaround in the early stages of extra time, as Southgate's relieved side scraped through to the last eight by the skin of their teeth.
Nevertheless, the England boss is adamant his players' last-gasp exploits against Slovakia will provide momentum ahead of facing Switzerland in Dusseldorf on Saturday.
"There's no question it will give the whole group belief," said Southgate.
“We know we should be better than we've been, but we've ended up with a lot of young players in important positions and trying to solve problems right the way through the four weeks of the camp.
"But the standout is the way the players are dealing with it. Their togetherness, their spirit."
Southgate referred to the 1990 World Cup and Euro 96 as similar instances where England were slow out of the blocks, before going on to reach the semi-finals at each tournament.
"Everybody now, 30 years on, looks back at [Euro] 96 in a different way to how it was at the time," the Three Lions boss added.
"We were bang average against Switzerland [in the opening game at Euro 96]. We were the same against Scotland; Scotland missed a penalty at 1-0 [down]. Spain should have beaten us in a 0-0 draw [in the quarter-finals].
"1990 was similar, so you do go through these moments in tournaments."
The 53-year-old will oversee his 100th England game in charge against Switzerland, becoming only the third Three Lions head coach to reach triple figures after Walter Winterbottom and Bobby Robson.
Martinez salutes Ronaldo and Diogo Costa as shootout hero revels in 'best game of my life'
Roberto Martinez paid tribute to Cristiano Ronaldo's character and Diogo Costa's penalty shootout heroics after Portugal scraped through to the Euro 2024 quarter-finals.
The 2016 champions were given an almighty scare by a stubborn Slovenia, who kept them at bay for 120 minutes at Frankfurt Arena - thanks largely to Jan Oblak in goal.
The Atletico Madrid stopper reduced Ronaldo to tears when he saved his tame penalty in the first half of extra time. However, the Portugal skipper made no mistake in the shootout, where Diogo Costa took centre stage.
The Porto goalkeeper, who produced a crucial save to deny Benjamin Sesko in the second half of extra time, then kept out all three Slovenia kicks from Josip Ilicic, Jure Balkovec and Benjamin Verbic.
And Martinez was full of admiration for the efforts of both players.
"Ronaldo missed a penalty and then was decisive when he started the penalty shoot-out, he paved the way," the Portugal head coach told EURO2024.com.
"It was a victory for unity, from the dressing room and Cristiano is our captain. He showed that in life and in football, there are difficult moments and we can't give up, we have to keep going and it was a demonstration of what to do when things aren't going well."
"We worked very well, the energy, strength and passion in the dressing room to win a game like that is incredible."
On Diogo Costa, Martinez added: "The secret of Portugal is Diogo Costa, he's the most hidden secret in European football.
"Today, he appeared on a different level, he was incredible in the one-on-one situation [with Sesko], and then he had the focus and quality to make three consecutive saves in the shootout. We have to be very proud of him."
Diogo Costa became the first goalkeeper to ever save three penalties in a European Championship shootout.
"This is probably the best game of my life," he said. "I focused on doing what I had to do. I went with my gut feeling. Of course, we analysed the penalty takers, but players change, and they change how they shoot.
"I am very happy and very excited to have helped the team. These are the hardest games as I barely touched the ball, but the hard work paid off.
"We all felt we needed to keep believing [after Ronaldo's first penalty]. We believed until the very end, and we're all very happy."
Euro 2024 data dive: Kante and Costa unbeatable as Ronaldo's blushes spared
Day three of the knockout stages at Euro 2024 certainly did not disappoint.
France edged out Belgium in perhaps the most eagerly anticipated tie of the last 16 on Monday, but most of the drama came later on as Portugal took on Slovenia.
Cristiano Ronaldo and his Selecao team-mates survived an almighty scare to progress on penalties, with the likes of Diogo Costa and Pepe making history.
Here, we run through all the best Opta facts and stats from a thrilling day of action in Germany.
France 1-0 Belgium: Kante makes history as Bleus get lucky again
The first game of the day saw France edge out neighbours Belgium in a heavyweight clash, though Didier Deschamps' Bleus were far from their best once again.
Only a Jan Vertonghen own goal five minutes from time – forced by Randal Kolo Muani's wayward shot – secured their place in the quarter-finals, as their wait for an open-play goal at Euro 2024 went on.
Alongside Kylian Mbappe's penalty against Poland on matchday three, France have benefitted from two own goals – the other coming via Austria's Max Wober in a 1-0 win in their opening match.
There have now been five instances of a team winning 1-0 via an own goal at the Euros, with France accounting for three of them (versus Germany in 2020, and Austria and Belgium in 2024).
Aged 37 years and 68 days, former Tottenham centre-back Vertonghen became the oldest ever player to score an own goal at the European Championships.
Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku went close at the other end, but in truth, Belgium did not carve out many clear-cut chances.
They have now failed to score in five of their last six games at major international tournaments (European Championship and World Cup), despite having a combined 59 attempts on goal worth 6.85 expected goals (xG) across those matches.
France have now won all five of their major tournament meetings with Belgium (European Championship and World Cup), the joint-best 100% win rate any European nation has against another across those two competitions combined (also Italy versus Austria).
N'Golo Kante's recall to their midfield has been a major talking point at this tournament, and he won both of his tackles and created two chances in a typically tireless performance.
He has now played the most outright matches in European Championship history without ever losing (90 minutes only), winning seven and drawing five of his 12 games.
Portugal 0-0 Slovenia (aet, 3-0 pens): History for Costa and Pepe as Ronaldo's blushes spared
France will face Portugal for a semi-final place after the Selecao survived a monumental scare in their last-16 tie, beating Slovenia on penalties after a goalless draw in Frankfurt.
Much of the tie came down to a battle between Cristiano Ronaldo and Jan Oblak, former rivals in LaLiga with Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
Ronaldo had seven shots worth 1.33 expected goals (xG) in the 120 minutes but simply could not find a way through, breaking down in tears when he had an extra-time penalty repelled by Oblak, who made six saves.
Ronaldo has now taken nine penalties in major international tournament matches, failing to score on three occasions.
He has had 20 shots worth 2.7 xG overall at Euro 2024, the most attempts at the tournament and the fifth-most without netting at any edition of the competition, after Deco in 2004 (24), Fernando Hierro in 1996 (23), Kevin De Bruyne in 2016 and Dani Olmo at Euro 2020 (both 21).
However, he atoned in the shoot-out with an accurate first Portugal kick, then it was down to Diogo Costa to save all three of Slovenia's penalties and send his team through.
He made more saves in the shoot-out (three) than in the 120 minutes preceding it, though Portugal were also indebted to him for making a huge one-on-one stop from Benjamin Sesko in the second half of extra time.
He is the first goalkeeper to ever save three kicks in a European Championship shoot-out, and the first to not concede a single kick.
There was also a piece of history for Pepe, who became the oldest player to feature in a knockout-stage match at a World Cup or European Championship, doing so at the age of 41 years and 126 days to overtake England's Peter Shilton (40 years, 292 days at the 1990 World Cup).
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