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• The Numbers Game: Austria face Turkiye in race of Euro 2024 'dark horses'

  Perennial dark horses Turkiye meet genuine dark horses Austria in an enthralling Euro 2024 last-16 tie on Tuesday.

  Austria beat the Netherlands 3-2 to seal top spot in Group D ahead of the Oranje and tournament favourites France.

  Turkiye, meanwhile, bounced back from a 3-0 defeat to Portugal by beating Czechia 2-1 and sealing their progress from Group F as runners-up.

  These teams have landed in the kinder half of the draw, with a quarter-final against Romania or the Netherlands up for grabs.

  Here, we preview the clash in Leipzig using Opta data.

  What's expected?

  Let's dig straight into the Opta supercomputer's prediction. The model is forecasting an Austria win, giving Ralf Rangnick's team a 48.2% chance of victory.

  Turkiye have a 24.9% chance, while there's a 26.8% chance of a draw, which would of course mean extra time or even penalties.

  This will be the first meeting in a major tournament between Austria and Turkiye.

  Austria have won two of the last three encounters in all competitions (L1), including an emphatic 6-1 victory in March of this year.

  In competitive matches, however, Turkiye are unbeaten in their last five games against Austria (W4 D1), keeping a clean sheet each time; this is the first such meeting since a goalless draw in a Euro 2012 qualifier in September 2011.

  You can certainly expect a full-throttle encounter, though.

  Rangnick's side are a brilliant pressing unit. Only Germany (8.8) had a lower PPDA in the group stages than Austria (9.0), while they were second for tackles (61) behind Georgia (63) and top for fouls conceded (49).

  Turkiye love to get on the front foot, too. Indeed, only Portugal (5.8) and Spain (5.4) had a higher non-penalty expected goals total than Turkiye (5.2) in the groups, while Vincenzo Montella's side were also third for high turnovers (28), behind Croatia (34) and Portugal (30).

  Ralf's still got it

  Rangnick's interim stint in charge of Manchester United did not go well, and some eyebrows were raised when Bayern Munich approached him earlier this summer.

  Yet on the evidence of Euro 2024, Rangnick has still very much got it.

  His team have been fantastic, and were worthy winners of Group D, scoring six goals across their last two fixtures in the first round, and only going down to France due to an unfortunate own goal from Maximilian Wober.

  Since Rangnick's first game in charge in June 2022, only three European nations – Portugal (73%), Spain (67%) and Netherlands (64%) – have a higher win percentage than Austria (60%), who have won 15 of their 25 matches under him.

  Austria have qualified for the knockout stages of a major tournament for only a fourth time, also doing so at the 1934 and 1954 World Cups and Euro 2020, losing 2-1 to Italy in the round of 16 in the latter.

  So it is hardly like the pressure is on, but given their displays so far, there is a feeling they can really go deep in this tournament.

  The kids are alright

  Turkiye were well fancied at Euro 2020, but ultimately flopped as they crashed out in the first round.

  This is just the third time they have reached the Euros knockouts, after 2000 and 2008, reaching the semi-finals at the latter tournament, which, of course, was co-hosted by Austria. However, they have yet to win a knockout tie in 120 minutes in the competition. They progressed past Croatia in the quarters on penalties 16 years ago, before losing 3-2 to Germany in the last four.

  But this new generation holds no fear.

  Only Ukraine (25 years, 281 days) had a younger average age of their starting XI in the group stages than Turkiye (26y 170d).

  In fact, should Kenan Yildiz (19y 59d on the day of the game) and Arda Guler (19y 128d on the day of the game) start, it will be just the second time a nation has started two teenagers in a knockout stage game at the Euros, after Hungary against Denmark in 1964 (Ferenc Bene and Zoltan Varga).

  Guler may well be crucial, especially when considering that playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu will miss this match through suspension. 

  Real Madrid youngster Guler is already his country's bright new hope, but he could make himself a hero here.

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Austria - Christoph Baumgartner

  Baumgartner has been directly involved in nine goals in his last eight appearances for Austria (six goals, three assists). 

  He scored and assisted in the group stage, becoming the first Austrian player to do so in a single European Championship tournament, and first at a major tournament since Gerhard Rodax at the 1990 World Cup.

  Baumgartner will be back playing on home turf in this match, too. He plies his trade for RB Leipzig.

  Turkiye - Ferdi Kadioglu

  Full-back Kadioglu created more chances from open play than any other player in the group stages (10), while only Mykola Matviienko (25) and Jeremy Doku (23) recorded more progressive carries of 10 metres or more (22).

  He is certainly a player Austria need to keep a close eye on.

• 'I knew it could be good' - Sabitzer proud after earning Austria top spot

  Marcel Sabitzer is proud of not only his winning goal, but also the strength Austria showed in their 3-2 victory over the Netherlands on Tuesday.

  Ralf Rangnick's side were drawn into a group including pre-tournament favourites France, the Netherlands and Poland, and few expected them to come out on top.

  However, after narrowly losing their opening to Les Bleus, Austria beat Poland 3-1 before Sabitzer struck the winner – his first goal at the European Championships – against the Netherlands to see them finish first in Group D.

  With a last-16 tie against one of the best third-place teams still to come, Sabitzer is confident in Austria's togetherness.

  "I got the ball deep, I looked up to see if someone was free in the middle, but I got the impression that [the Netherlands] had more men there. In the past, the left foot has often helped me, so I thought that was the moment I could give it a try," Sabitzer told reporters.

  "As soon as the ball left my foot, I knew it could be good.

  "We are all footballers who want to win games, and that is our objective in every game. And if you have moments where things are a bit more difficult, and it goes back and forth, then the question is how does the team react to that.

  "You can be proud of the unity we have, the mentality we have on the pitch ... we used our strengths, the goal was very nicely worked. So many Austrians who watch us in the stadium trust us, and we want to give them something back."

• Chile 0-1 Argentina: Super sub Martinez sends Albiceleste to Copa America quarter-finals

  Lautaro Martinez struck a late winner as Argentina beat Chile 1-0 to secure their place in the Copa America knockout stages with a game to spare.

  The reigning champions looked like they would have to settle for a point on a frustrating night at the MetLife Stadium, having failed to turn their superiority into the game's opening goal.

  But substitute Martinez, who also netted from the bench in his nation's opener against Canada, finally broke Chile's resolve when he lashed home two minutes from time.

  It moved Lionel Scaloni's side onto six points at the Group A summit, three points ahead of Canada, who beat Peru 1-0 earlier in the day. A draw against Peru in their final game will now be enough to secure top spot.

  Argentina dominated the first half with 13 unanswered shots, yet just three of those were on target. One of them saw Julian Alvarez fire straight at Claudio Bravo from close range in the 22nd minute.

  Lionel Messi also went close to scoring in the 36th minute. La Albiceleste's skipper let fly with a fizzing 25-yard attempt that clipped the outside of Bravo's left post, while Erick Pulgar almost turned Nahuel Molina's cross beyond the Chile goalkeeper two minutes later.

  La Roja had Bravo to thank for keeping Argentina at bay, as the reigning champions continued to carry the greater attacking threat after the break.

  The veteran stopper beat away Molina's fierce strike within five minutes of the restart, and just after the hour mark, he produced a superb reflex save to tip Nicolas Gonzalez's drive onto the crossbar.

  With the breakthrough still eluding the world champions, Scaloni bolstered his attack by introducing Angel Di Maria and Martinez for the final 17 minutes.

  Chile had increased their own attacking threat by registering their first attempts on goal in the contest, with Rodrigo Echeverria calling Emiliano Martinez into action on both occasions.

  Yet, there was to be a late twist in Argentina's favour when an 88th-minute corner broke kindly for Martinez, who reacted quickest to fire into the roof of the net and send La Albiceleste through to the quarter-finals.

  Persistence pays dividends for Argentina

  The history books would have suggested Argentina should have fancied their chances against Chile.

  This is epitomised by the fact they are now unbeaten after 90 minutes in the last 13 meetings, winning eight of those, but that does not tell the full story.

  Seven of those eight victories have only been by a single-goal margin and, of course, they lost on penalties in the Copa America final showdowns of 2015 and 2016.

  Though they dominated most of this contest and registered 22 shots to their opponents' three, just the one goal was enough once more, with both of Martinez's strikes from the bench in this competition coming in the 88th minute.

  Argentina progress to the Copa America knockout stages for a 14th consecutive time, excluding when they withdrew from the 2001 tournament.

  Toothless Roja see resistance broken

  Chile looked set to frustrate Argentina once again at the Copa America and hold out for a second successive clean sheet.

  Their defensive resolve - along with an inspired performance by Bravo between the sticks - looked like it would remain firm and keep the reigning champions at bay, until Martinez's late intervention.

  What will be more concerning for La Roja is the fact they have now gone four successive Copa America matches without scoring, while having to wait until the 72nd minute for their first attempt on goal.

  That is something they need to address quickly ahead of their crucial final Group A clash with Canada, in which a victory could still see them snatch second place and a quarter-final spot.