Newcastle United versus Everton may have been ringed on the calendar back in August, but not for the same reasons it is now the source of such intrigue.
Tuesday's fixture could have seen Rafael Benitez return to St James' Park for the first time since quitting as Newcastle manager back in 2019.
However, Benitez is out at Everton – as, at Newcastle, is Steve Bruce, his successor on Tyneside.
Instead, Frank Lampard heads north for his Premier League bow as Everton boss, set to take on Eddie Howe's Magpies in a match neither can afford to lose.
Newcastle remain in the bottom three yet can close to within a point of their opponents with a win that would surely drag Lampard's men into the relegation battle.
Ahead of a mammoth encounter, Stats Perform's Ben Spratt and Patric Ridge examine the issues that have brought the two teams to this point and consider how they can each hope to kick clear of the danger – starting at Gallowgate.
Why Newcastle are in trouble – BS
This has felt like a relegation campaign right from the outset, with Newcastle's positive performances going unrewarded and their poorer displays being ruthlessly punished.
Newcastle led within five minutes at home to West Ham on the opening day, as Bruce attempted to deliver a more exciting, attacking brand of football. He succeeded only in leaving a hapless defence hopelessly exposed.
They lost 4-2 to the Hammers, the first three of 21 points dropped from winning positions, the first four of 43 goals conceded – 10 of which have been a result of errors leading to goals (four), penalty goals (five) or own goals (one).
Those mistakes have continued under Howe, who has also quickly grown tired of a consistent trend of contentious refereeing decisions going against his side at both ends of the pitch.
The assumption from those not watching this luckless outfit on a weekly basis has been that January spending would lift Newcastle to safety. That theory is about to be put to the test, however, with the neutral perhaps anticipating more ambitious targets than Chris Wood and Dan Burn.
Why Everton are in trouble – PR
Benitez was never the right choice at Goodison Park – but not only due to his Liverpool connections. While his disciplined, organised Newcastle side appeared to play to a clear plan, his Everton team were, largely, shocking.
After a 1-1 draw with Manchester United in October, Everton had 14 points from their seven Premier League games – their best start since 2004-05 (16 points), when they finished fourth – but the underlying level of performances always suggested that if injuries hit, which they did, the Toffees may struggle. And struggle they have.
Benitez – who cannot be blamed for all of Everton's issues, it has to be stressed – wanted to play on the counter-attack, yet his team could not defend. Across 19 league games in charge, they shipped 34 goals – including 11 from set-pieces, a problem that persists.
But Everton's issues have not been restricted to one area of the pitch.
From a 1-0 defeat to West Ham on October 17 to Benitez's final match in charge against Norwich City on January 15, Everton ranked 18th for goals (11), 16th for shots on target (46/139) and 12th for touches in the opposition box (259), as well as having the third-worst defence (27 goals conceded), with 20.6 expected goals against the fourth-worst in the division. Their position is in no way false.
Why Newcastle can survive – BS
Newcastle's £90million January outlay – the largest in world football – may not have brought a host of superstars to Tyneside, immediately guaranteeing survival, but their five signings could yet transform the way Howe's side play.
Kieran Trippier, Burn, Matt Targett and Bruno Guimaraes have all been recruited from teams who are used to having the ball – which cannot be said for Newcastle, despite their coach's footballing philosophy. No team in the Premier League have had a lower average share of possession (37.8 per cent), with just Burnley, who have two games in hand, completing fewer passes (4,962).
If Newcastle are now able to move the ball out from the back with greater confidence, their costly mistakes in possession should start to subside.
This has, after all, been a season of such fine margins. The Magpies have not lost to any of the other eight teams in the bottom nine; crucially, however, they have only beaten two of them. A new style of play, operating further away from their own goal (only Wolves have a deeper average starting position than Newcastle), should mean more opportunities created in attack and fewer conceded in defence.
Newcastle have been working towards this Everton game for more than two weeks, although only Trippier of the new faces went on the "team bonding" trip to Saudi Arabia. How quickly and effectively the rest of the signings have settled should be evident in Newcastle's approach – and, perhaps, the result.
Why Everton can survive – PR
Had they carried on with Benitez for much longer, or perhaps even left Duncan Ferguson in caretaker charge, Everton's survival chances may have been slim.
Yet that should change under Lampard – and seemingly already has. A clip of the new Toffees manager instructing his players to "enjoy the ball" during a training session last week came as a breath of fresh air to supporters who, under a succession of managers, have become accustomed to their team surrendering possession far too easily.
Evidence of Lampard's impact was there to see in the 4-1 FA Cup win over Brentford on Saturday. Even though Dele Alli and Donny van de Beek were cup-tied and Dominic Calvert-Lewin was out injured, Everton scored four goals in a game for the first time since Carlo Ancelotti oversaw a 5-4 win over Tottenham last February.
Everton had 55.8 per cent of the possession, a share they were only twice able to better under Benitez (both in defeats), with Lampard placing more of an emphasis on his defenders playing into midfield. A duel success rate of 63.1 per cent (53/84) was their best in any game across all competitions this season, as the Toffees noticeably looked to engage higher up the pitch.
Given Newcastle preferred to invest in their defence, Everton – between Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison and Demarai Gray – should have the strongest attack of those in relegation trouble. With Alli and Van de Beek also to come into the midfield and Abdoulaye Doucoure to return from injury, Lampard's more attacking, intense approach should suit the Toffees moving forward.
Guardiola insists three teams still in title hunt despite Liverpool slip-up
Pep Guardiola insists Liverpool remain in the Premier League title race, despite the Reds losing further ground on Arsenal and Manchester City in a dramatic few days at the summit.
Liverpool suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat to Merseyside rivals Everton on Wednesday, a result which meant they failed to close the gap to Arsenal after the Gunners thrashed Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday.
While Jurgen Klopp's men couldn't respond to the Gunners pulling clear, City did on Thursday, with Phil Foden scoring twice in an emphatic 4-0 win over Brighton at the Amex Stadium.
One point behind Arsenal with a game in hand, City know five wins from their five remaining matches will seal an unprecedented fourth successive English top-flight title.
However, Guardiola expects further twists and turns in the coming weeks.
Asked if Liverpool were still in contention after City's win, Guardiola told Sky Sports: "Yeah. Many things can happen.
"What happened with Liverpool, losing to Crystal Palace and Everton, can happen to us. It can happen to Arsenal. No-one is safe. We have to rest. Now it is just about recovering for the next one.
"We have been here in the past but being here in the past doesn't mean it is going to happen. We have to do the things to make it happen."
City's comprehensive win – in which Kevin De Bruyne scored his first headed goal in the Premier League – saw them cut Arsenal's goal difference advantage to eight goals.
However, Guardiola believes it will be tough for City to close that gap, saying: "It is difficult to cut. The margin is so big. They score a lot of goals and don't concede.
"The main thing is to win the games. We have five games left and they are tough ones – it's a lot of games. We'll take it one game at a time."
Foden's first goal against Brighton – a deflected free-kick – saw him become just the third player to score 50 top-flight goals under Guardiola while aged 23 or younger, after Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi.
Foden is the favourite to be named Premier League Player of the Season, and while Guardiola believes he should be in contention, he says his player is more concerned with team honours.
"For sure, but he wants to win the Premier League," Guardiola said when asked if Foden deserved individual honours. "His influence in the final third was better than in the last two or three games. Today he was more calm, his decision-making was good and to score goals is always good."
Foden: De Bruyne the best in the Premier League
Phil Foden hailed Manchester City team-mate Kevin De Bruyne as the Premier League's best player after the pair both netted in the 4-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion.
De Bruyne opened the scoring in Thursday's contest at Amex Stadium before Foden took over with a couple of goals of his own before half-time.
Julian Alvarez rounded off the scoring just after the hour in a one-sided contest as an Erling Haaland-less City moved to within a point of leaders Arsenal with a game in hand.
Belgium international De Bruyne now has four goals and six assists in just 13 league appearances for City this season.
Speaking to Sky Sports News after the win over Brighton, Foden said: "I think when he is at it, he is the best player in the Premier League."
Foden's first goal came via a deflected free-kick that he himself won, although replays showed he slipped rather than being fouled.
The England international doubled his personal tally with a composed finish after Brighton were caught in possession at the back.
Asked about playing more centrally, Foden said: "I have always said that I see myself there. This year I have moved inside and it has helped me massively.
"I enjoy it in the middle. It's where I want to be. At the moment, I am just enjoying my football and playing with freedom."
De Bruyne had earlier opened the scoring with a brilliant opener - his first headed goal for City in the Premier League - as City made it 30 games unbeaten in normal time across all competitions.
Alvarez then went on to round off the scoring in a game that not only saw the reigning champions close the gap on Arsenal, but also narrow the goal difference margin to eight.
"It was a good game," De Bruyne said. "I think we played really good in the first half and every game is a lot of pressure. All we can do is prepare as we did today and win the game that is in front of us.
"We just want to win game-by-game and push for the title. We don't get ahead of ourselves. Now the next game is coming quickly. Try to recover and we go again."
Kyle Walker assisted the De Bruyne and Alvarez goals - the first time the defender has set up two goals in a single Premier League game in what was his 390th appearance in the competition.
Reflecting on his rare headed goal, De Bruyne said: "It doesn't happen too much. Kyle gave a good cross and I think the only way I could reach it is by jumping to it. I will take it but it's not something I am good at."
City have rather ominously won four Premier League games in a row and travel to strugglers Nottingham Forest next up at the weekend, knowing victory in their remaining five games will secure an unprecedented fourth straight title.
"I trust my team. All respect to Liverpool and Arsenal, they are amazing," De Bruyne added. "Arsenal are doing what they need to do and we are also needing to do it. Work hard and be humble enough to keep pushing."
Los Angeles FC v Portland Timbers: Neville relishing swift rematch
Phil Neville is looking forward to a quick reunion with Los Angeles FC when the Portland Timbers head down to southern California.
The Timbers face LAFC on Saturday, just two weeks after they drew 2-2 with Steve Cherundolo’s team at home.
Felipe Mora and Evander scored for Portland that day, but Mateusz Bogusz’s double ensured a share of the spoils, with the Timbers having goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau sent off.
LAFC had a goal disallowed late on, and Neville believes both teams will feel they deserved more from that match.
He said: “Both managers came out of the game two weeks ago feeling hard done by – they had a goal disallowed in the last few minutes, we were really disappointed too in the performance of the referee.
“Saturday’s another game where we have to go for it. When you play teams really close together, there’s not much scouting, there’s only been one game between, so it’s about remembering the good things we did and how we can cause problems.”
Portland drew 2-2 with the Columbus Crew last time out, and Neville is satisfied with the level on show from his side, who sit down in 11th in the Western Conference.
“We took a lot of confidence out of the game against Columbus,” he said.
“We came up with chances to win the game, but we were beaten by an incredible goal. The boys are in really good shape, they’re looking forward to the game on Saturday – my first trip to LAFC so I’m looking forward to that. It’s another brilliant game against a really good team. We played them a couple of weeks ago. We know each other, both teams know each other.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
LAFC – Denis Bouanga
Bouanga scored both of LAFC’s goals against the New York Red Bulls last time out, including the equaliser in stoppage time. It was the eighth time Bouanga has scored multiple goals in an MLS match since the start of last season (incl. playoffs). No other player has more than four multi-goal games in that time.
Portland Timbers – Felipe Mora
Mora has scored in each of his last four appearances for the Timbers, though Portland have not won any of those matches (D3 L1). Mora is the fifth player in the post-shootout era (since 2000) to score in four straight matches but not be on the winning side in any of them.
MATCH PREDICTION: LAFC WIN
LAFC are unbeaten in eight straight home matches (W6 D2) in all competitions. They have scored multiple goals in seven of those eight matches.
However, LAFC have won only two of their last 10 regular-season matches against the Timbers (D4 L4).
The Timbers have scored in all 14 meetings with LAFC in league play since 2019 while LAFC have scored in 13 of those 14.
Portland are winless in six straight matches (D3 L3), including drawing the last three in a row. The Timbers have only three longer winless runs within a single regular season, most recently an eight-match run in March-April 2014.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
LAFC – 56.2%
Portland Timbers – 19.5%
Draw – 24.3%
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