EPL

Premier League MD3: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

By Sports Desk September 02, 2024

The Premier League takes its first break for international fixtures over the next two weeks.

But we had plenty of thrills and spills on matchday three.

Everton were 2-0 up in the 87th minute against Bournemouth on Saturday, only for Sean Dyche's team to lose 3-2. Manchester City continued their perfect start, while Arsenal were held by Brighton, with Declan Rice sent off.

On Sunday, Newcastle United overcame Tottenham and Chelsea drew with Crystal Palace, while the headline fixture of the weekend saw Liverpool hammer Manchester United.

But which teams were lucky, and unlucky, on MD3?

Lucky winners: Bournemouth

Andoni Iraola claimed Bournemouth were fortunate to come from behind and beat Everton 3-2 at Goodison Park. The Toffees were leading by 2+ goals until the 87th minute – the latest a team has ever been 2+ goals ahead in a game they've gone on to lose in Premier League history.

The full-time stats perhaps suggest a different version of events to Iraola's take. Bournemouth finished with a higher expected goals (xG) than Everton (2.22 to 1.97) while having 17 shots to the hosts' 18.

But up until late on, Everton had complete control. Indeed, as of the 80th minute, Sean Dyche's team had mustered 18 shots, 11 more than Bournemouth.

And just to hammer that home, 1.79 of Bournemouth's 2.22 xG came from the 81st minute onwards. While the Cherries deserve credit for a smash-and-grab, it is fair to say that Everton, who had five big chances but scored just two of them, will have been left scratching their heads as to how they capitulated.

Unlucky losers: Chelsea

Okay, so technically, Chelsea are not 'losers' - they drew 1-1 with Palace on Sunday.

But, based on the metrics, they were extremely unfortunate not to beat Oliver Glasner's team.

Chelsea had 13 shots and accumulated 2.4 xG, which was the third highest across the weekend's games, behind Brentford (2.78) and Man City (3.0), albeit a huge chunk of it came from Nicolas Jackson's close-range finish.

 

Palace goalkeeper Dean Henderson was in fantastic form, making some excellent saves to deny Noni Madueke and Cole Palmer and coming away with a goals prevented figure of 1.76, and ultimately, Eberechi Eze's stunner, which had an xG of just 0.06, was enough to claim a share of the spoils and frustrate Enzo Maresca.

Lucky winners: Newcastle United

Newcastle beat Spurs 2-1 at St James' Park, and Eddie Howe's team showed how clinical they can be.

They had nine shots, 11 fewer than Tottenham, but actually amassed a higher xG total (1.83 to 1.26), showing that the opportunities they created were quality ones.

Indeed, they converted both of their big chances, meaning they join Leicester City (1/1) as the only other team from the weekend to register a 100% big chance conversion rate.

Unlucky losers: Arsenal

Like Chelsea, Arsenal drew, but based on the underlying metrics, and even though they went down to 10 men when Declan Rice was sent off, they could be considered unfortunate not to have beaten Brighton.

Mikel Arteta's team finished with an xG of 2.14, the fifth-highest total from the weekend, while also creating five big opportunities, from which players would have been anticipated to do better, only for the Gunners to miss four of them.

On the flip side, Arsenal did face 22 shots going the other way, albeit those attempts did not account for a high xG (1.76).

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    The Saints are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season (seven), while only Crystal Palace (5.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Russell Martin’s side (6.2%). Just 30.1% of Southampton’s shots have been on target this term (34/113), a league-low ratio.

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    PLAYERS TO WATCH

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    Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

    Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney’s record of 36 games with both a goal and an assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (seven goals, four assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton.

    He has also been directly involved in 67% of Liverpool’s Premier League goals this season (14/21 – eight goals, six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in the division in 2024-25. Indeed, only Matt Le Tissier for Southampton in 1993-94 (69% - 34/49) has scored or assisted a higher proportion of a side’s goals in a single season in the competition.

    MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN

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    The Reds’ last Premier League game against the Saints was a 4-4 away draw in May 2023 – they conceded as many goals in that game as they had in their previous six visits to St Mary’s combined.

    Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games against Liverpool (D3 L10), a 1-0 home victory in January 2021.

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    But Martin’s side have lost nine of their 11 Premier League games this season (W1 D1). Only seven sides in English top-flight history have reached 10 defeats in 12 or fewer matches from the start of a campaign, with all seven going on to be relegated.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Southampton – 9.7%

    Draw – 12.6%

    Liverpool – 77.7%

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