England have staggered and stuttered their way through Euro 2024, but they are nevertheless in another semi-final.
For the third time at a major tournament under Gareth Southgate, the Three Lions are in the last four – the only competition in which they have failed to reach that stage since the start of the 2018 World Cup was in Qatar in 2022.
Standing between them and successive European Championship finals are the Netherlands.
Ronald Koeman's team were unconvincing in the group stage but, unlike their opponents in Dortmund on Wednesday, have clicked into gear in the knockouts.
Whereas England required extra time – and a Jude Bellingham stunner – to break Slovakian hearts, and then stayed perfect from the spot and relied on a save from Jordan Pickford to beat Switzerland on penalties, the Oranje overcame Romania 3-0 and Turkiye 2-1, both inside 90 minutes.
But what does the data suggest ahead of the second Euros semi-final, with a place in the Berlin showpiece, against either France or Spain, on the line?
What's expected?
England have been clear favourites, according to the Opta supercomputer, for every match they have played at Euro 2024 so far. But that is not the case for this tie.
The model gives England a 37.8% chance of victory, just marginally more than the Netherlands' 31.6%; the draw threat (so, the likelihood of extra time and a penalty shoot-out) is coming in at a relatively large 30.6%.
That's not particularly surprising considering England have gone to extra time in both of their knockout ties so far.
Only Portugal at Euro 2016, Spain at Euro 2020, and Italy at Euro 2020 have ever gone to extra time three times in a single edition of the finals.
This is the fourth meeting between England and the Netherlands at a major tournament; the Oranje won 3-1 at Euro 1988 (thanks to a Marco van Basten hat-trick), followed by a goalless draw at the 1990 World Cup, and a 4-1 England win at Euro 1996.
Of all the nations England have faced 20+ times in their history, only against Brazil (15%) do they have a lower win rate than they do against the Netherlands (27% – six wins, nine draws, seven defeats).
In fact, England have won just one of their last nine meetings with the Netherlands in all competitions (four draws, four losses), winning a friendly 1-0 in Amsterdam in March 2018.
Back-to-back?
While Southgate has come under criticism for the level of performances in Germany, his major tournament record is hard to argue with.
England went 22 years between 1996 and 2018 without reaching a semi-final. Since the start of that tournament in Russia, England have reached the stage three times.
Indeed, having gone 65 years without reaching a final, England are now on the brink of back-to-back appearances in a major tournament's biggest event.
This is England's fourth appearance in the semi-final of the European Championships; having been eliminated in the first two in 1968 (vs Yugoslavia) and 1996 (vs Germany), the Three Lions reached the final of Euro 2020 after beating Denmark 2-1, only to lose on penalties to Italy at Wembley.
Bukayo Saka cast aside the demons of that final shoot-out with his composed effort from 12 yards against the Swiss, and it was his superb strike that forced extra time in the first place.
There have been five occasions of a team reaching the final of consecutive editions of the Euros; USSR (1960/1964), Germany (three times, 1972/1976, 1976/1980, 1992/1996) and Spain (2008/2012).
Change the record
For the Dutch, it will be a sixth semi-final at the Euros. They have lost their last four, with the one they won coming in 1988 – they went on to win that tournament, with Van Basten scoring one of the most famous goals in the competition's history in the final, which took place in Munich.
This is the Netherlands' first Euros semi-final since 2004. On that occasion, they lost 2-1 to host nation Portugal.
The Netherlands have won two different matches having conceded the first goal at Euro 2024, beating Poland 2-1 in the group stage and Turkiye by the same scoreline in the quarter-final.
Only Czechia, at Euro 2004, have ever won three games having conceded first at a single edition of the tournament, but it does show England – who have proved comeback specialists themselves in the knockouts – must be wary.
The Netherlands have scored nine goals across their five games at Euro 2024, while their 8.12 expected goals (xG) ranks them fourth in the competition.
England, on the other hand, have mustered just 4.36 xG, scoring five times. The Oranje also average more touches in the opposition box than the Three Lions (29.8 per game compared to 25.6).
Defensively, both of these teams have been tight, conceding just seven goals between them, but if the Dutch are to change the record when it comes to their Euros runs in the modern era, this is as good a chance as any.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Netherlands – Memphis Depay
In Depay (17 shots, 10 chances created) and Cody Gakpo (13 shots, 11 chances created), the Netherlands are the only side with more than one player to have both 10+ shots and 10+ chances created at Euro 2024.
Indeed, one or both of Depay and/or Gakpo have been directly involved in 47 of the Netherlands' 74 shots at these Euros (63.5%), and six of their nine goals (66.7%).
While Gakpo has been their primary goalscorer, and has a shot at the Golden Boot, Depay has that magical touch when he's on his best form, and displayed his quality with an excellent delivery for Stefan de Vrij's equaliser against Turkiye.
England – Harry Kane
Coming into the semi-finals, no player has scored more knockout stage goals in the competition’s history than Harry Kane (five, level with Antoine Griezmann).
Kane scored in the semi-final of Euro 2020 against Denmark; only two players have ever scored at this stage of consecutive European Championships – Viktor Ponedelnik and Valentin Ivanov, both for USSR in 1960/1964.
That being said, despite scoring twice in Germany so far, Kane has largely cut a frustrated figure, and has managed just 23 touches in the opponent's box throughout the tournament.
Inzaghi demands more from Inter after narrow win over Torino
Inter must improve defensively if they are to go on and retain their Serie A crown this season, so says Simone Inzaghi.
Marcus Thuram's hat-trick propelled Inter to a 3-2 victory over 10-man Torino on Saturday.
It was Inter's second 3-2 win on the spin in Serie A, moving them up to second.
Inter only conceded seven shots, but five of those were on target, with Torino's 1.61 expected goals (xG) showing the visitors created decent openings at San Siro, where Nikola Vlasic converted a late penalty to set up a grandstand finale.
"Clearly, we need to improve in some aspects, we pay a heavy price for every tiny distraction," said Inzaghi, who has seen Inter concede two goals in successive league matches for the first time since May 2023.
"We worked really hard on details that need to be whittled down, the lads have great spirit, but considering everything we did today, today's game shouldn't have ended 3-2.
"Seeing a team perform like this in three matches makes me want to congratulate these guys. We need to keep working the way we are, and in our penalty area, we all need to be more attentive.
"We're working on it, and we need to do more. Over the past two days, the team has trained extremely well, and we're trying to pay even more attention to the finer details."
Hat-trick hero Thuram, meanwhile, says the entire team must step up when it comes to defending.
"It's also the fault of the attackers, not just the defenders or the goalkeeper," he said.
"We are eleven players on the pitch and not conceding goals is part of everyone's job. We will try to improve in the upcoming games.
"There’s a lot of work, especially in the penalty area. For me, scoring is always a great feeling, but I always want to remain a player who helps the team above all."
Thuram's haul was the third time he has scored at least twice in a match this season, matching Erling Haaland.
Indeed, in 2024, only Juventus' Dusan Vlahovic has scored more Serie A goals than Thuram (13).
Real Madrid's Carvajal confirms serious knee injury
Real Madrid's Dani Carvajal could be set to miss the rest of the season after suffering a cruciate ligament injury.
Carvajal had to be taken off late on in Saturday's LaLiga meeting with Villarreal, which Madrid won 2-0 thanks to goals from Federico Valverde and Vinicius Junior.
The 32-year-old and the club subsequently confirmed he will have to go under the knife.
"Serious cruciate ligament injury confirmed, I'll have to undergo surgery and be off the field for a few months," Carvajal said on Instagram.
"Looking forward to starting the recovery process and coming back like an animal. Thank you all for your messages, I feel very loved."
After the match, Carlo Ancelotti said: "It looks like a pretty serious knee injury, the dressing room is sad and worried.
"It's something that happens a lot of times because of the calendar and it's happened to a very important player for us.
"He is a fundamental player for us because of his experience.
"I've been talking to him and he's sad, but there's not much we can do. We are going to see the medical evaluation and think about him recovering. The doctor has told us that he has to do tests, but that it's a knee injury."
Asked how he may replace Carvajal in Madrid's starting XI, Ancelotti said: "We have Lucas Vazquez, but it's not the time to talk about this.
"We are going to wait and if the injury is serious we are going to manage the squad well and see who we put in this position. It will not be me."
Vinicius also suffered an injury against Villarreal, with Madrid confirming the Brazil star had a cervical issue.
The victory took Los Blancos level on points with Barcelona at the summit of LaLiga, ahead of the Blaugrana facing Deportivo Alaves on Sunday.
Portland Timbers v FC Dallas: Neville hopes to bounce back and clinch play-off spot
Portland Timbers coach Phil Neville is “looking forward to bouncing back” after a defeat to Austin FC, as a win or a draw against FC Dallas will be enough to secure a place in the MLS playoffs.
Portland fell to a 1-0 defeat at home to Austin, who they are vying with for the final play-off spot in the Western Conference.
While The Timbers will have a second chance to secure their spot against the Seattle Sounders should they fail to gain points against Dallas, Neville will hope to enter the final day with it already wrapped up.
Portland currently sit six points ahead of Austin, meaning a draw against Dallas will be enough.
“We’re looking forward to bouncing back,” Neville told the press. “We’ve qualified for the playoffs barring a miracle.
“We’ve got to return to what we do best and that’s put on a convincing show at home on Sunday.”
The man in the opposition dugout, Peter Luccin, is far more disappointed with his side's recent defeat, which saw them mathematically ruled out of playoff contention.
Dallas lost 3-2 to the San Jose Earthquakes midweek, which puts them eleventh in the table and out of reach of their opponents.
Luccin’s side had kept the scores level at 1-1 until the 79th minute when San Jose scored two in quick succession before Dallas pulled one back. It left the interim head coach frustrated with the display.
"[I’m] very disappointed, very sad, mad at the same time. With Austin beating Portland, our scenario was perfect, winning this game and going to Portland just five points away and trying to beat Portland. It’s so disappointing,” he said, via Big D Soccer.
“The goal that we conceded, the chances that we missed. Very, very disappointed. I haven’t had time to talk with the players, it is a night to suffer a little bit. We didn’t take care of business and it’s all on us.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Portland Timbers – Evander
Attacking midfielder Evander has the second-most assists in the league with 14 in 26 appearances, only behind FC Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta, who has 16 in 30 appearances.
The Brazilian ranks joint-sixth in the league for chances created having produced 81 across the season, while he has also scored 15 goals.
Dallas - Peter Musa
Musa is the top goalscorer for Dallas this season (15), with three times the number of goals than his highest-scoring team-mate, Paul Arriola.
He was on the scoresheet last time the two sides met in a high-scoring encounter that saw Dallas win 3-2.
MATCH PREDICTION: PORTLAND TIMBERS WIN
Portland have lost just one of their 15 all-time home matches against Dallas (W9 D5), going unbeaten in the last seven (W4 D3).
Dallas have scored just two total goals in those seven visits, following a 3-1 victory in their only win at Portland in April 2016.
Despite failing to score at home on Wednesday, Portland’s 39 goals at Providence Park this season in the MLS is their most in a single regular season since the club joined the league in 2011.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Portland Timbers – 54.2%
Draw – 23.5%
Dallas – 22.3%
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