The Euro 2024 group stage is done and dusted.
Croatia were the biggest name to fail to make the knockouts, as they and Hungary were the two third-placed sides to miss out on the last 16.
Previous finalists Italy and England progressed along with the likes of hosts Germany, France, Spain and Portugal, though some nations were more fortunate to advance than others.
Here, we use Opta data to assess the unlucky losers and the lucky winners from the Euro 2024 group stage, both in terms of individual matches and the first phase of the tournament as a whole.
UNLUCKY LOSERS
Croatia
Let's start with the tournament's biggest expected goals (xG) underperformers so far... and the big-name casualty of the group stage.
Luka Modric became the oldest player to score at the Euros in the tournament's history on matchday three, and that goal against Italy seemed to be sending Croatia through from Group B, only for Mattia Zaccagni to rescue the Azzurri late on.
That 1-1 draw condemned Croatia to third place. But they were highly unfortunate not to take more than two points.
They lost 3-0 to a rampant Spain on matchday one, despite accumulating 2.38 xG to La Roja's 2.01. They then amassed 2.69 xG against Albania, only to concede late on in a 2-2 draw.
Indeed, Croatia finished with an accumulative xG total of 6.55, which leads the tournament, yet they only managed three goals.
Defensively, they can consider themselves unfortunate too. Croatia conceded six goals from an xG against (xGA) of 4.37, though their 15 shots on target faced does rank joint-fifth worst. Ultimately, Zlatko Dalic's team allowed too many efforts on goal, and they paid the price for profligate finishing at the other end.
Czechia
Czechia finished bottom of Group F, with Georgia the surprise package as they stunned Portugal to claim third place.
Despite not winning a match, Czechia recorded 5.11 xG in total, the sixth-highest figure in the tournament.
Interestingly, the four Group F teams (Portugal, Turkiye, Georgia and Czechia) all rank in the top nine for xG so far.
Czechia converted that xG into just three goals, though, with Patrik Schick - who shared the Golden Boot with Cristiano Ronaldo at Euro 2020 - failing to spark like he did three years ago.
But, we can't pin Czechia's failure on their finishing. Their xG on target (xGoT) of 6.01 shows they were forcing opposition goalkeepers into action, with Ivan Hasek's team leading the way for shots on target (20, equal with Germany). Czechia's 6.82% shot conversion rate was the lowest in Group F, though.
Ukraine
For the first time in the history of the Euros, four teams in one pool all finished level - that was in Group E, with Romania, Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine all collecting four points.
Ukraine were the unfortunate team to miss out, as they became the first side in Euros history to finish bottom of the group while earning four points. Ouch.
What do the metrics say? Well, they should probably have scored a goal more than the two they managed, having accumulated 3.07 xG. Their shot conversion rate of 5.13% ranks 19th out of 24, though.
At the other end of the pitch, even though they only had a total xGA of 2.95 across the three games, they were punished by some quality finishing from Romania in an opening 3-0 defeat, which ultimately proved decisive in their exit.
LUCKY WINNERS
Italy
It's a good job for the holders that Zaccagni curled in late on against Croatia. If not, and if results in other groups had gone as they have done, then the Azzurri would not have made it through as one of the best third-placed teams.
As it was, they did get that crucial goal against Croatia, despite mustering just 0.9 xG, so they made it through in second and will now face Switzerland in the last 16.
With Germany, Spain, France and Portugal on the other side of the bracket, could a path be opening up for Luciano Spalletti's team to defend their title, against the odds?
Italy generated just 2.62 xG across their three games, the sixth-lowest in the competition, while they have only had nine shots on target, more than only Scotland (three), Serbia (six) and Slovenia (seven).
They are on the kinder half of the draw, but it's fair to say they are fortunate to be there.
Georgia
It is fantastic to see tournament debutants Georgia make it into the knockouts, and based on their performance against Portugal, in a 2-0 win, it is hard to say they didn't deserve it.
Georges Mikautadze is the first player to score or assist in each of his first three games at the European Championship since Gareth Bale for Wales in 2016, and as it stands, he is also the unlikely leader in the Golden Boot race.
That being said, the metrics do not reflect particularly well on Willy Sagnol's team, who have been defensively wide open, facing a tournament-high 71 shots, with 25 of those (another competition high) hitting the target. In fact, they have given up over 3.0 xG in two of their three matches so far.
They have been hugely reliant on goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who has prevented the most goals of any shot-stopper in the tournament based on Opta's xGoT model (four goals conceded from 7.6 xGoT).
Mamardashvili is likely to have to be on top form again if Georgia are to shock Spain on Sunday.
Going the other way, Georgia have only had 26 shots (only Scotland, with 17, managed fewer), but their shot conversion rate is an impressive 15.38%, the third-highest in the tournament.
You have to have luck on your side to win a tournament, but is this going to be sustainable in the knockouts?
England
Much has been made of England's poor performances in Germany, considering the attacking talent Gareth Southgate has at his disposal.
And the metrics do support those moans and groans - the Three Lions' 2.19 xG is the third-lowest in the competition.
However, they also have the stingiest defence, having kept two clean sheets and given up just 1.15 xG.
England, though, have certainly been fortunate that Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia hardly offered the sternest of opponents in Group C. They have landed in the kinder half of the draw, but it's time for the pre-tournament favourites to click into gear.
Girlz coach Busby eyes improved performance as 'Bunny' Shaw returns for South Africa friendlies
With Jamaica’s senior Reggae Girlz failing to register a win since beating Panama at last year’s Fifa Women’s World Cup, Head coach Hubert Busby says the two highly anticipated home friendlies against South Africa represent an opportunity to turnaround their poor run of form.
Though focused on more than just immediate results, Busby pointed out that victory in upcoming matches is part of a larger vision—a journey toward a third-consecutive World Cup appearance in 2027 and the continued development of a sustainable, competitive program for Jamaica’s women’s football.
The Girlz will take on South Africa at the Montego Bay Sports Complex on November 29 and December 2, in what will be their first matches on home soil since November 2022. It will also be the first game in Jamaica for the core group of the 2023 World Cup squad since last September’s Olympic qualifying playoff against Canada.
“It’s special to have the girls back playing in front of our fans. This is an opportunity to connect with the home crowd again, but it’s also a critical step in our preparation for what’s ahead,” Busby shared as he unveiled his 23-member squad.
“We're looking to have a good performance, then that leads to, obviously, a good result to end the year, but really it is also about us continuing to evaluate and to make the proper assessment of the players who continue to kind of move forward into World Cup qualifiers. I mean, that's really the bigger picture. So short term, let's get two good performances this week...two good results and take that into the February window,” he added.
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw has been in good form for Manchester City.
Busby’s approach reflects his determination to build on recent experiences, including lessons learned from challenging matches against top-tier opponents like Brazil and more recently, France.
Despite a compressed six-day camp prior to that encounter, in which they lost 0-3, he noted the progress made in refining their style of play, particularly in maintaining possession and executing defensive transitions.
“We didn’t get the result we wanted against France, but there were positives, especially in how we’re evolving our style of play—keeping possession and building from the back. But we need to cut down on individual mistakes and improve decision-making in critical moments. Football is a game of moments, and minimizing mistakes during crucial periods is a key focus for us,” he noted.
With the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Brazil as the ultimate target, Busby has been focused on establishing a winning culture while integrating new talent into the team.
For the last camp, he invited Taylor Hinds, Lulu Jarvis, Reanna Blades, and Natasha Thomas in to see how they fit into the programme, but none of those players are listed for the upcoming camp, in which national youth representative Destiny Powell and Naya Cardoza will be the only new players among the core group.
The coach stressed that his job is not just to guide the team to their third consecutive World Cup but to lay the groundwork for Jamaica’s participation in every World Cup thereafter, hence the consistent inclusion of young talent.
“It’s not just about Brazil in 2027. It’s about creating a sustainable pipeline of talent so we’re always competitive because their growth today will fuel our success tomorrow. So it's really important to get these young players in,” Busby shared.
“My responsibility is to get this team to the 2027 World Cup, but with that said, you know, we want to ensure that we're going to every single World Cup afterwards. Integrating young, talented players into the group to see where they are keeps the group fresh and challenges the group to keep it competitive. The success that we've had in the past, the average age, I believe was about 26 years of age, so they'll probably be about 28 going forward,” he explained.
One of the most exciting elements of the upcoming friendlies is the return of Khadija “Bunny” Shaw, who has been in rich form for Manchester City.
Busby, while highlighting her influence, both as a leader and a prolific scorer, as key to the team’s offensive strategy, also emphasized that the team’s success needs to be rooted in defence as former captain Konya Plummer, left full-back/winger Siobhan Wilson, and defensive midfielder Peyton McNamara also make a return to the fold. Wilson recently recovered from an ACL injury.
Siobhan Wilson makes a long-awaited return after an ACL injury kept her out of action for nine months.
“One of our objectives is to keep a clean sheet. Being good defensively has been the basis of our foundation of success without a doubt, but the biggest inclusion in this group is leader ‘Bunny’ Shaw. She's been in great form, as we all know, so it gives us another option up front to go around with all the as to go along with the other attacking options we have. But having her back in the group helps tremendously,” the tactician declared.
Like the Reggae Girlz, South Africa are also fresh off their participation in the 2023 World Cup, and Busby expects the games to be another tough challenge for his side, much like it was in their last meeting in 2019 when they played out a 1-1 stalemate in Durban.
“Going into these two games against a great-quality opponent in South Africa still gives us a really good litmus test in terms of where we are and, more importantly, where we need to go. So that is the objective. We want to get the wins. We want to improve performance. And we're hoping that these next two games will see a much more improved performance than we have before, that's for sure,” Busby ended.
Squad: Rebecca spencer, Liya Brooks, Allyson Swaby, Konya Plummer, Naya Cardoza, Vyan Sampson, Chantelle Swaby, Deneisha Blackwood, Siobhan Wilson, Atlanta Primus, Destiny Powell, Peyton McNamara, Jade Bailey Drew Spence, Paige Bailey-Gayle, Olufolasade Adamolekun, Khadija Shaw, Kayla McKenna, Davia Richards, Jody Brown, Shania Hayles, Shaniel Buckley, Tiffany Cameron
Neymar wanted to 'give up' after suffering ACL injury
Neymar admits he considered retirement after suffering an anterior cruciate ligament injury while representing Brazil last year.
The Al-Hilal forward has only played 29 minutes since last October, when he sustained the serious knee injury during a 2-0 defeat to Uruguay in qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.
The former Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain star returned as a substitute in a 3-0 win over Iran's Esteghlal in the Asian Champions Elite League earlier this month, but he suffered a hamstring tear and is now expected to be sidelined until mid-December.
Speaking during an interview for Netflix's new documentary Saudi Pro League: Kickoff, the 32-year-old said his ACL injury was the worst he has experienced.
"Some days when I wake up, I want to give up," he said in the documentary, which detailed his recovery. "I admit, this injury is the one that shook me the most in my career.
"I was really sad, and very down mentally for the first month. I knew it was a serious and long-term injury. Being on the sidelines is tough.
"The beginning of an injury is quite complicated. At the start, you only feel pain. I only felt the pain, I just wanted it to stop.
"I wanted to bend my knee as quickly as possible so that I could regain my movement and make the pain go away."
Neymar then revealed his age made his recovery all the more difficult, adding: "If you don't have the people you love by your side, your family, your friends, then it can be difficult to come back from an injury like this.
"It really messes with your mind and your body. I'm not 20 any more, I was 31 when it happened. I'm very grateful to have my friends and family around."
Maresca confirms James will miss Leicester clash with hamstring injury
Enzo Maresca confirmed that Reece James has suffered another hamstring injury and will miss Chelsea's Premier League fixture against Leicester City on Saturday.
James made 11 appearances in all competitions last season before undergoing hamstring surgery, which was designed to help him overcome his series of injuries.
He returned to action in Chelsea's 2-1 defeat to Liverpool last month, completing his first 90 minutes in 569 days a week later against Newcastle United.
Though his latest injury setback is his eighth hamstring problem in four years, while also picking up thigh, ankle and muscle issues along the way.
Maresca played down concerns about a long-term lay-off but confirmed James will miss Saturday's match at the King Power Stadium.
"We have just one injured player and that's Reece, who unfortunately felt something small in training two days ago, and we don't want to take a risk for the weekend," he said.
"It's a hamstring, muscular problem. We will see, we don't know for how long, for sure [we want him fit for longer]. At the moment it is not happening, but we hope it will happen soon.
"He is out this weekend, but hopefully he can be back soon. It's probably difficult that he can be available for the Conference League [next Thursday], but hopefully soon."
Since his debut season in 2019-20, James' most appearances came in the 2020-21 campaign, featuring 47 times in Chelsea's Champions League winning season.
His best run of matches during that time is six in May 2021, but he managed just 482 minutes under Mauricio Pochettino in all competitions last season.
James has, however, managed more minutes (6138) in the Premier League since the 2020-21 season than any other player in the current Chelsea squad, though Enzo Fernandez (4375) is second, despite only joining the club in January 2023.
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