England know that the last 16 of Euro 2024 is within touching distance as they head into a reunion with Denmark.
The Three Lions beat the Danes in the semi-finals at Euro 2020, coming from behind to win 2-1 after extra time.
Harry Kane was England's hero as he converted a penalty winner, though spot-kicks would of course go on to prove to be their downfall in the final against Italy.
There is less on the line when England face Denmark again on Thursday, though Gareth Southgate's team will progress to the knockout stage should they win.
Here, we use Opta data to preview the Group C clash.
What's expected?
England are forecasted to win this one, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 54.5 per cent chance of getting the job done in Frankfurt.
Denmark are sure to be no pushovers, though, and have a 20.6 per cent win likelihood, with the draw threat at 25 per cent.
This will be the fourth encounter between Denmark and England at a major tournament. Three of those will have come at the Euros, and one at the 2002 World Cup.
Denmark won none of the previous three meetings (D1 L2), scoring only one goal in the process, Mikkel Damsgaard's free-kick in the semi-final of Euro 2020.
There have only been five goals scored in the last four meetings between Denmark (two) and England (three) in all competitions.
Meanwhile, the Three Lions only had 12 touches in Serbia's box in their 1-0 win on MD1, their lowest total of touches in the opposition box in a European Championship game since 2012 against Ukraine (also 12).
Indeed, the England v Serbia match saw only 11 shots (five for England, six for Serbia) – that tally is the lowest on record in a European Championship match, fewer than every one of the other 322 matches in the competition since 1980.
England have also kept a clean sheet in each of their last five group-stage matches at the European Championship finals, the longest such run in the competition's history.
So, this game is probably not one to expect too many goals in.
Bellingham a safe bet but can Foden and Kane flourish?
Jude Bellingham came into Euro 2024 with the pressure and hype ramped right up. He is the face of this England squad, and there is an onus on him to deliver.
Well, he started on the right foot, scoring in the 13th minute on Sunday to seal that 1-0 victory over Serbia.
Bellingham displayed the kind of chance-sniffing instinct he has demonstrated so brilliantly during his first season at Real Madrid, getting on the end of Bukayo Saka's deflected cross and powering home with his head.
Having become the first player to play at two European Championship tournaments before the age of 21, he is also the second England player to score at two major tournaments before turning 21 (also scored vs Iran at the 2022 World Cup), along with Michael Owen, who scored at the 1998 World Cup and Euro 2000.
Bellingham was crucial in every aspect against Serbia. He led England for touches (93), while only Declan Rice (81) and Kyle Walker (77) attempted more passes than the 20-year-old, who also competed in a team-leading 16 duels, winning 10 of them, and was successful with two of his three tackles.
Southgate's system seems designed to allow Bellingham to flourish, though has that come at the expense of Phil Foden?
The Manchester City star struggled when he did find space against Serbia, though there is perhaps a case that the Premier League Player of the Year is being shoehorned in out of position, too.
Kane, meanwhile, had just two touches in the opening 45 minutes, before finishing with 24 – exactly half that of Jordan Pickford and the lowest of any England outfielder who started the match. The Bayern Munich striker did have a header tipped onto the crossbar, but that was his only chance of the game. Southgate needs to get him more service.
England average 1.9 goals per game under Southgate at major tournaments, the best ratio of any Three Lions boss, but there could be so much more to come from this star-studded attack.
Christian the Great (Dane)
Christian Eriksen scored his maiden goal at the European Championship in Denmark's 1-1 draw with Slovenia.
At 32 years and 123 days old, he became the oldest Dane to score at the Euros and oldest at a major tournament since 33-year-old Jon Dahl Tomasson at the 2010 World Cup.
It was a clever run and deft finish from the Manchester United playmaker, who created seven chances from set-pieces in the match, the most by a player in a European Championship fixture since Gary McAllister in 1992 for Scotland against Germany (eight).
Getting Eriksen into dangerous positions has to be the gameplan for Kasper Hjulmand's team, who completed 583 passes and enjoyed an 89 per cent passing accuracy against Slovenia, both record highs for the Danes that Opta has on record (since 1980) at the European Championship.
Despite their run to the last four three years ago, Denmark have won just one of their last six group stage games at the Euros (D1 L4), beating Russia 4-1 at Euro 2020 to ensure qualification to the round of 16.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Denmark - Rasmus Hojlund
Eriksen will be the one England have to stop influencing the match in midfield, but John Stones and Marc Guehi – should they start – will have to be on high alert to keep Man United's Hojlund under wraps, too.
He only had one shot against Slovenia, which he did get on target, but he is a quality finisher and can certainly do some damage.
England - Phil Foden
Foden created just one chance in a subdued performance against Serbia, but there can be no doubting his quality.
Get him more involved, and in fairness, Foden has to sharpen up when he does get on the ball, and England will surely have far too much for Denmark's defence.
PSV seek to bounce back from Ajax loss
PSV want to use Tuesday's Champions League clash against Girona as a chance to bounce back after losing their 100% record in domestic football.
They still lead the Eredivisie by 15 points but after winning 10 games on the trot, let a 2-1 lead slip and went down 3-2 to Ajax in Amsterdam on Saturday.
PSV have a good chance to get back on track when they host Girona in what will be the first meeting between the teams.
"Everyone who has played football has lost at some point," said PSV coach Peter Bosz on Monday.
"You go home with a bad feeling and wake up the next day with a bad feeling. But then you also know that the next match is coming up.
"When you play in Europe, there are two or three days in between. It is like that almost every week, so as a player or as a coach you have to learn to move on from your disappointment quickly. We discuss the game afterwards and then we draw a line under it and move on to the next one."
Girona have already taken on PSV's domestic rivals Feyenoord in the new-look Champions League this season, losing at the start of last month, though Bosz is expecting a stern test form last season's surprise package in LaLiga.
"A team that wants to dominate opponents," Bosz said of their Spanish opponents.
"Also against Feyenoord, more possession, 11 corners to Feyenoord's zero. They want to build from the back, play real football.
"They did a great job in Spain last year. If you finish third there, that's something very special. You need a lot of quality, otherwise you won't last a season. This year they're having a bit more trouble, also because of the extra matches in the Champions League."
PSV have yet to win in the group phase this season, while they have won just two out of 20 European Cup/Champions League games against Spanish teams (D9 L9).
However, the last Spanish side to win away at PSV in European competition was Granada in October 2020 in the Europa League (2-1), with each of the last three visiting sides failing to win there (D2 L1): Real Sociedad (D1) and Sevilla on two occasions (D1 L1).
Sporting want to show they 'don't need Amorim', says Hjulmand
Sporting CP captain Morten Hjulmand says the club are ready to show what they can do without Ruben Amorim.
The head coach is set to join Manchester United on November 11, having signed a deal that will keep him at Old Trafford until the end of the 2026-27 season.
Sporting have made a brilliant start to the season, currently sitting top of the league table, winning all 10 of their matches so far, and are also unbeaten in the Champions League.
Despite their impressive showing so far, Hjulmand says he is prepared for the challenge that lies ahead.
"It is a positive challenge [to not play under Amorim]," Hjulmand said ahead of their Champions League meeting with Manchester City on Tuesday.
"Winning the championship remains the goal. Life goes on, we now want to show that we don't need Ruben.
"It was difficult for me to know that he is leaving. I was sad. That he was going to leave me too. But in football, opportunities like these happen to players and coaches.
"It's part of football and I hope Ruben is proud to receive an offer of this kind."
During his four-and-a-half-year tenure at Sporting, Amorim guided them to two Primeira Liga titles and took charge of 156 league games, the most of any coach in the club's history (according to Opta's records).
He also boasts the best win ratio of any Sporting coach on record, winning 120 of those matches in the Portuguese top-flight (76.92%).
Hjulmand, who was signed by Amorim in August 2023 from Lecce, admitted he was sad to see him leave, but believes he can do a good job at United.
"Ruben was one of the reasons why I came to Sporting," he added. "When you are coached by him, you get a clear idea of the way he sees football and how he sees us being part of the team.
It's a very important image for the player, to know what his role is, what he can contribute to the team. It was very important when I joined Sporting.
"The way he sees the players, how he manages the team on and off the field... It's something I've never seen in my career. Manchester United will be in good hands with Ruben.
"We are resigned that Ruben will leave, we will have a good coach, in whom we believe.
"Everyone who works at Sporting made a good choice with this new coach. The fans also believe in the new coach. The championship is going on, and we have to win it."
Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.
On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively.
It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.
Pep Guardiola's champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola's Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.
But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.
Unlucky losers: Arsenal
The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.
However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).
The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.
Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.
Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.
Lucky winners: Southampton
Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.
Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.
While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.
It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.
Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace
Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.
Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.
They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half.
With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.
There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.
Lucky winners: Chelsea
Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.
Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.
United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.
Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.
United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).
Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.
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