Looking to end 58 years of hurt, England get their Euro 2024 campaign under way against Serbia on Sunday.
Three Lions boss Gareth Southgate has suggested it may be a case of all or nothing as he enters his fourth – and potentially final – major tournament at the helm.
Southgate has transformed England from perennial underachievers to genuine contenders, overseeing a surprise fourth-place finish at the 2018 World Cup, then seeing the nation's old nemesis – the penalty spot – haunt them in the Euro 2020 final versus Italy and a 2022 World Cup quarter-final against France.
Penalty shoot-outs excluded, the Three Lions have only lost one of their last 18 games at the Euros (10 wins, seven draws), going down by a 2-1 scoreline in an infamous last-16 clash with Iceland in 2016.
Despite the same opponents inflicting another defeat upon England in their final pre-Euros friendly last week, the Opta supercomputer makes them tournament favourites.
They lift the trophy in 19.9 per cent of competition simulations, just ahead of France (19.1 per cent).
Serbia, however, will be looking to throw a spanner in the works on their first Euros appearance as an independent nation, with the presence of several capable attackers leading some to tout them as a potential surprise package.
Here, we delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's game.
What's expected?
England have started all three of their major tournaments under Southgate with a victory, and the Opta supercomputer is backing them to do so again in Germany.
They are given a 62.1 per cent chance of a win, with Serbia only triumphing in 16 per cent of scenarios and the spoils being shared in 21.9 per cent.
In the supercomputer's Group C predictions, the Three Lions are given a huge 95.4 per cent chance of reaching the last 16, finishing top in 66 per cent of simulations.
Serbia advance in 56.2 per cent of projections, fewer than Denmark (69.2 per cent) but more than Slovenia (42.1 per cent). However, they are only given a 12 per cent chance of topping the pool.
This will be England and Serbia's first encounter since the latter re-emerged as an independent state in 2006. In fact, since the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, England have only faced Serbia and Montenegro once, winning 2-1 in a 2003 friendly.
The Three Lions are, though, unbeaten in their last six matches against Serbia or Yugoslavia, winning each of the last four.
Their most recent defeat to them was a particularly notable one, though, as Alf Ramsey's world champions lost 2-1 in the semi-finals of Euro 1968, a four-team competition that saw Yugoslavia finish as runners-up.
Attack the best form of defence for Serbia
With Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Jarrod Bowen, Anthony Gordon and Eberechi Eze competing to support Harry Kane, England's firepower is not in question.
Their ability to keep things tight at the back, though, just might be.
With Harry Maguire sidelined by a calf injury and Luke Shaw not yet ready to feature after recovering from a hamstring issue, Southgate will be forced to field a new-look backline on Sunday.
Marc Guehi is expected to partner John Stones, and England need to recapture the solidity they displayed at previous tournaments under Southgate.
Across the 2018 and 2022 World Cups and Euro 2020, England conceded just 0.59 goals per game and allowed opponents a paltry 0.72 expected goals (xG) per match – a figure only bettered by France (0.67) among the leading European teams to make each tournament.
Should they fall short of those standards in Gelsenkirchen, the likes of Aleksandar Mitrovic, Dusan Vlahovic and Dusan Tadic are well-equipped to punish them.
Serbia have only managed five clean sheets in 25 competitive outings under Dragan Stojkovic, who took over in 2021.
However, they have only failed to score on two of those outings, against Norway (0-1 in the Nations League) and Brazil (0-2 at the 2022 World Cup).
Generally using a 3-5-2 shape and looking to isolate Mitrovic and Vlahovic against their markers, Serbia will pose a real physical test. They scored one third (five of 15) of their goals in Euro 2024 qualifying via headers, the highest percentage of any team to reach Germany.
The Three Lions must be prepared to withstand an aerial bombardment.
Can Alexander-Arnold solve midfield conundrum?
Aside from Maguire's replacement, the main talking point in the build-up to England's opener has been the identity of Declan Rice's midfield partner.
Manchester United's Kobbie Mainoo looked to be in pole position at the end of the domestic season, but reports now suggest Liverpool's Trent Alexander-Arnold – who will don the number eight shirt – will start as first-choice.
Alexander-Arnold has played a total of 25,078 minutes of competitive football for Liverpool, and only one per cent of those have come in central midfield, so playing the position at a major tournament could represent something of a baptism of fire.
However, Alexander-Arnold – who is accustomed to inverting into central areas at club level – could prove a useful asset as England look to prise open low blocks.
He ranked eighth among all outfielders for accurate long balls (147) in the Premier League last season and third for switches of play (32). If he can help to get the likes of Foden and Saka isolated against Serbia's wing-backs on Sunday, that could be key to opening the door.
Meanwhile, England are well aware of the importance of dead balls at major tournaments. They ranked either first or joint-first for goals from set-pieces at the 2018 World Cup (six goals), Euro 2020 (three) and the 2022 World Cup (two).
Since making his Premier League debut in December 2016, Alexander-Arnold leads all players in the division for set-play assists (20) and ranks joint-third for chances created from such scenarios (184).
Maguire may be absent, but if Alexander-Arnold brings his dead-ball prowess to Germany, England will be a force to be reckoned with from corners and free-kicks.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Serbia – Aleksandar Mitrovic
Mitrovic, who is Serbia's all-time leading scorer with 58 goals in 91 matches, still looks sharp despite swapping the Premier League for the Saudi Pro League last year.
The former Fulham man plundered 28 goals in 28 league games for Al-Hilal in 2023-24, with only Cristiano Ronaldo – with 35 strikes in 31 matches – topping him in the scoring charts.
Under Stojkovic, Mitrovic has 21 goals in 23 competitive appearances for his country, with the majority of his goals coming via headers (52 per cent).
England – Harry Kane
If England are to go all the way, they will need Kane to deliver in his new home country, after he saw a 44-goal debut season with Bayern Munich go unrewarded in terms of silverware.
Kane is also a proven operator on the international stage, scoring 12 goals across the last three major international tournaments – six at the 2018 World Cup, four at Euro 2020 and two at the 2022 World Cup.
No European player has bettered that tally, with only France's Kylian Mbappe matching it.
He also scored or assisted on all seven of his starts in qualifying (eight goals, two assists), including a brace in an impressive 3-1 win over European champions Italy last October.
Hubert Busby aims to build on positives after Reggae Girlz two-match triumph over South Africa
Jamaica’s Head coach, Hubert Busby, took heart from a successful two-match friendly series against South Africa, as he intends to use the victories as a foundation to sharpen his Reggae Girlz ahead of critical future competitions.
The Reggae Girlz, who dominated the first match with a 3-0 win last Friday, followed up with a hard-fought 3-2 victory in the second match on Monday at the Montego Bay Sports Complex in Catherine Hall.
Goals from Vyan Sampson (58th), Drew Spence (63rd), and substitute Kayla McKenna (76th) overturned Linda Motlhalo’s 19th-minute opener and rendered Amogeland Motau’s added-time strike inconsequential.
For Busby, the series wasn’t just about securing wins but about testing the squad in challenging scenarios.
This, as he pointed out that the quick turnaround between matches posed a physical challenge for both teams, but in the same breath, stressed the importance of resilience and adaptability, particularly after a lackluster first half in the second game.
“Yeah, I mean, look, the quick turnaround for both teams was always going to be a little bit tedious. You could see that a little bit in the first half—us trying to find our legs a bit. Credit to the medical and high-performance staff for getting the players ready,” Busby said post-match.
“These games are why we play them. We're going to be put in stressful situations; I wouldn't like it to be as stressful in the 90th minute, but that's football, you know, and credit to the team for how they responded and were worthy winners in the end,” he added.
Busby credited late adjustments for the team’s second-half resurgence after a lukewarm first half. They struggled to find rhythm and squandered a few half chances against a more confident-looking South African outfit that moved the ball well on this occasion.
“We recognized how they were building their play, so we spoke about it at halftime and showed the players what we wanted to do in terms of pressing higher. They responded really well, and those adjustments and then the impetus of players to carry out those instructions is really why we were able to turn around the game in the second half,” he explained.
Despite the team’s offensive prowess, Busby admitted disappointment at failing to maintain a clean sheet.
“Keeping a clean sheet is about the whole team and shows a good defensive performance. Overall, I still think we played well, but football is about moments. We have to manage those moments better because quality opposition at this level will punish you if we don’t. So it’s another chance for us to learn, grow, and take it into the next window,” he said.
The tactician also addressed the absence of veteran Tiffany Cameron, explaining that the decision allowed younger players to gain valuable experience as they aim to balance development and performance.
“Everybody here is ready. This camp was about evaluating players and seeing how they handle stressful situations. Tiffany is a veteran, so we know what she brings. But it’s also about embedding younger players into the group because it is us building a programme so that we can go to this 2027 World Cup and consecutive World Cups thereafter,” he stated.
With the February international window next in their line of sight, Busby is already planning for tougher tests to further prepare the team for the World Cup qualifiers.
“Plans are already in place to get an opposition. We’ve had conversations with different federations, and we’ll confirm that in the next four to five weeks. Another quality opposition that is going to test us in a stressful environment will make us better for World Cup qualifiers,” he ended.
Meanwhile, 19-year-old goalkeeper Liya Brooks, who earned her first two caps during the series, welcomed the opportunity.
“For me, it was kind of like a weight lifted off my shoulders. I knew the team had my back, and that made it easier. I'll say that I feel like my communication with my team is quite solid, and I feel like that's probably the most important thing.
“Moving forward, it’s about getting comfortable and learning my teammates individually. Also to make sure that I'm locked in and focused for every ball played back, and just making sure that I take time to breathe and live in the moment and also ensure that I'm confident in what I'm doing,” Brooks shared.
Conte eyeing Napoli changes for Coppa Italia tie against Lazio
Antonio Conte said that Napoli's Coppa Italia last 16 tie against Lazio would be used to give some of his fringe players the opportunity to shine for the Serie A leaders.
Napoli maintained their advantage at the summit of the standings with a 1-0 win over Torino on Sunday, with Scott McTominay on target for Gli Azzurri.
Conte's side are not participating in Europe this season after finishing 10th in Serie A last term, providing a slight advantage in terms of their Scudetto ambitions this year.
However, having fewer games has limited some of Napoli's squad to minor minutes from the bench, but Conte has used the competition so far to rest his key players.
Napoli have already featured in two rounds of the cup so far, brushing aside Serie B sides Modena and Palermo.
"This year in some respects it is penalising for many players because we only have the league, and we have the Coppa Italia," Conte told reporters.
"We played two games, the season opener with Modena, then with Palermo there was the possibility to give space to the players who had less time until then, and tomorrow we'll have another clear opportunity to test everyone's growth a bit."
Lazio have also started well in Serie A this term, sitting in fifth after 14 games of their season and only four points behind Conte's side in the division.
They are also unbeaten in their last three games against Napoli (W2 D1), and Conte was well aware of the task awaiting his players if they are to reach the quarter-finals.
"We always look at game-by-game, so the most important is Thursday's," he added.
"Having said that, I'll make choices because there are many players in the squad. We had a good start but it must not only be thanks to the 12-13 who took part.
"The credit must be shared with the entire squad, those who took over and those who played little or nothing but kept the intensity and competition high in training."
Conte also took the time to respond to Inter president, Giuseppe Marotta, who said that Napoli are favourites to win Serie A this season.
"The director can say what he wants," Conte said.
"But I think that at the end of the year if Inter were not to win the Scudetto he would not be very happy and would not consider the season a good season.
"They are focusing a lot on us and perhaps do not see who can really be the one who bothers them."
Ancelotti hoping Madrid face 'extraordinary' Botafogo in Intercontinental Cup final
Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti is hoping to meet Copa Libertadores winners Botafogo in the Intercontinental Cup final that takes place in December.
Botafogo beat Atletico Mineiro 3-1 to win their first title in the famous competition, despite seeing Gregore sent off inside 30 seconds for a high tackle on Fausto Vera.
Luiz Henrique and Alex Telles put Botafogo two goals in front before Eduardo Vargas reduced the deficit, only for Junior Santos to seal the win in second-half injury time.
The Intercontinental Cup, which takes place in Qatar at the end of this month, will see the champions of all six confederations square off for a chance to play Madrid in the final.
Botafogo will play CONCACAF champions Pachuca, with the winner of that encounter taking on the African-Asian-Pacific Cup winners, Al Ahly.
Los Blancos are already in the tournament's showpiece on December 18 after beating Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League final, claiming their 15th title.
"I watched the match (Libertadores final) live and really enjoyed it," Ancelotti told a press conference.
"It was a fantastic atmosphere. I was mesmerised. An incredible first minute of the game, with that incredible flying kick (that earned Gregore a red card).
"Then the team's (Botafogo's) attitude and commitment were extraordinary. They played a fantastic match down to 10 men."
Ancelotti was also happy for Botafogo midfielder Allan, who he managed during his time in charge of Napoli and Everton.
The Italian is hoping for a reunion with his former player, saying: "I'm happy for Allan who won the Libertadores with Botafogo, which is a historic team in Brazilian football.
"For them to be able to finally win the Libertadores for the first time. Yes, I was delighted!
"I know they still have a couple of games to fight for and reach the (Intercontinental Cup) final but yes, it would be great if it's them against us."
But up first for Ancelotti and Madrid is a trip to the San Mames Barria to face Athletic Bilbao in LaLiga.
Madrid recovered from their loss to Liverpool in the Champions League in midweek by beating Getafe 2-0 on Sunday, with Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham on target.
That result moved Los Blancos to within a point of rivals Barcelona at the summit of the standings, with the luxury of having a game in hand over their Clasico rivals.
Ancelotti, however, has seen his side suffer several injuries this season, with the likes of Eduardo Camavinga, Vinicius Junior and Eder Militao all missing on Sunday.
But Ancelotti was able to provide a positive injury update on midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni, who has missed the last four games in all competitions with an ankle injury.
"To have Aurelien back is really important because of his role, so versatile defensively, can play as a centre-back or holding midfielder," added the Italian.
"Also, his height is key for us while defending set pieces, an important aspect of the game in which we have suffered since Eder Militao went down."
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