No tournament is complete without a 'group of death'.
Euro 2024 may have two, with France and the Netherlands looking to fend off a challenge from Austria in Group D, while heavyweights Spain, Croatia and Italy battle it out in Group B.
It's Spain and Croatia who get the latter pool under way on Saturday, facing off in a huge tussle at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.
La Roja are the only team to win back-to-back editions of the Euros, achieving that feat in 2008 and 2012, yet they have only won two knockout ties across five major tournaments since that latter triumph.
Luis de la Fuente's team did, however, win the 2022-23 edition of the Nations League, overcoming Croatia on penalties in the final. Spain also memorably eliminated Zlatko Dalic's team from Euro 2020, winning an eight-goal thriller in the last 16.
Spain may have previous against Croatia, but few will be writing Dalic's team off following their third-place finish at the 2022 World Cup, at which an ageing but supremely talented side used all their big-game know-how to eliminate Brazil.
The result of Saturday's game could go a long way to deciding both teams' fates in a group that could easily see a giant fall. Here, we use Opta data to preview the game.
What's expected?
The Opta supercomputer makes Spain favourites for this one, but La Roja's win percentage of 50 per cent suggests the outcome is far from a foregone conclusion.
Croatia were victorious in 24 per cent of match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, with 26 per cent ending level and potentially handing the initiative in the group to Italy.
There will certainly be plenty of familiarity between these two sides. Indeed, Spain and Croatia are facing each other at a fourth successive edition of the Euros.
That has only previously occurred on one occasion, when Spain and Italy met in four straight editions between 2008 and 2020. They will, of course, do battle at a fifth successive tournament when they square off in Gelsenkirchen on June 20.
La Roja have won two of their previous three encounters with Croatia (5-3 at Euro 2020, 1-0 at Euro 2012), while they were beaten 2-1 at Euro 2016.
If recent history is anything to go by, an entertaining affair could be in the offing.
Three of the last five meetings between Spain and Croatia have contained at least five goals, and the most recent – a 5-3 extra-time win for La Roja three years ago – is the second-highest scoring game in Euros history, after France 4-5 Yugoslavia in 1960.
The supercomputer makes Spain Group B favourites with a 47.3 per cent chance of finishing top, to Croatia's 18 per cent, Italy's 29 per cent and Albania's 5.6 per cent.
With four third-place finishers reaching the last 16, La Roja (89.1 per cent), Italy (80.3 per cent) and Croatia (67.8 per cent) are all expected to progress.
Can Spain add punch to possession play?
At Euro 2020 and the 2022 World Cup, Spain won plenty of admirers for their patient, possession-based style, with Gavi and Pedri hailed as generational talents.
However, their approach did not win them enough matches. La Roja scraped past Switzerland on penalties at Euro 2020 before going out to Italy on spot-kicks, while a bold rearguard action from Morocco dumped them out in the first knockout round in Qatar. Before that, a shock defeat to Japan almost sent them out in the group stage.
Their patient approach is nothing new. Spain have had more possession than their opponents in each of their last 136 competitive games, last seeing less of the ball when they beat Germany with 46 per cent of the play in the Euro 2008 final.
They have also attempted 1,000 or more passes in four separate World Cup matches but only won one of those, beating Costa Rica 7-0 in Qatar.
Their last 50 Euros goals have all been scored from inside the area, with their last strike from outside the box coming via Real Madrid great Raul, against Slovenia in 2000's group stage.
De la Fuente will not stray too far from Spain's identity, despite Gavi missing the tournament due to an anterior cruciate ligament injury.
The key to their success will be adding punch to their patient build-up play, and wide duo Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams could hold the key in that regard.
Williams (second, 191) and Yamal (fourth, 141) both ranked among the top four players for dribbles attempted in LaLiga last season, also ranking third and fifth respectively for carries ending in a take-on (Williams 97, Yamal 82).
Athletic Bilbao's Williams has six goal involvements (two goals, four assists) in 13 senior appearances for Spain, while Yamal will become the youngest player in Euros history as long as he gets an outing before the final, which is one day after his 17th birthday. Few nations boast a pair of wingers as exciting as the Roja duo.
Tournament specialists set up to surprise
As is the case with Spain, control has long been the name of the game for Croatia, yet many would argue they do it with a level of savviness that deserted La Roja long ago.
At the 2022 World Cup, only Spain (135) recorded more sequences of 10 or more passes than Croatia, with Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic and Mateo Kovacic pulling the strings in midfield.
Brozovic (509) and Modric (484), as well as centre-back Josko Gvardiol (505), ranked among the six players to play the most passes in Qatar, with Rodri out in front with 676 despite only playing four matches.
It was not everyone's cup of tea as Croatia relied on the penalty shoot-out heroics of goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic in their two knockout triumphs over Japan and Brazil.
Despite playing the full seven games, they only ranked seventh in the tournament for expected goals, their 7.05 xG some five fewer than Brazil, who managed 12.08 xG in five games.
But it was not simply a case of Croatia playing keep-ball until they could show their nerve from the spot. Dalic's team led everyone at the tournament for high turnovers (59), shots from high turnovers (10) and pressed sequences (109).
Andrej Kramaric, Lovro Majer and Ante Budimir are all comfortable doing the dirty work up top, and the latter was on target as Croatia scored an impressive friendly win over Portugal on Saturday – admittedly with Cristiano Ronaldo rested.
Difficult to beat and comfortable in transition and in possession, Croatia deserve their reputation as tournament specialists. Spain will underestimate them at their peril.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Spain – Alvaro Morata
Missed opportunities have been a theme for Spain at recent tournaments. At Euro 2020, Morata missed more big chances (six) than any other player and also fluffed his lines as La Roja were beaten on penalties by Italy in the last four.
However, after enjoying the joint-most prolific campaign of his career in Europe's top five leagues, scoring 15 goals for Atletico Madrid in LaLiga, Morata will be trusted to shoulder the goalscoring burden again.
He ended a five-match goal drought for his country as Northern Ireland were routed 5-1 in a warm-up friendly last week, and though he has his detractors, he has tournament pedigree.
Only Ronaldo (eight) and Antoine Griezmann (seven) have scored more goals than Morata's six across the last two editions of the Euros.
Croatia – Luka Modric
Modric personifies Croatia's measured approach, and despite playing a reduced role for Real Madrid in 2023-24, he will be their key man again at this tournament.
The 38-year-old only started 18 games in LaLiga last term, yet he ranked ninth in the league for total passes in the opposition half, with 923.
Among players with at least 15 starts, he ranked fourth for chances created per 90 minutes (2.94), joint-fourth for open-play chances created (2.14) and seventh for passes into the final third (10.9).
Modric versus Rodri and Pedri could be the most watchable midfield battle of the group stage.
Poland 1-3 Austria: Baumgartner and Arnautovic get Rangnick's men up and running
Austria got off the mark at Euro 2024 with a 3-1 victory over Poland, with second-half goals from Christoph Baumgartner and Marko Arnautovic deciding an entertaining contest.
Austria flew out of the traps in Berlin as Poland struggled to get an early foothold, and Ralf Rangnick's team led within nine minutes. Phillipp Mwene delivered a pinpoint cross from the left, and Gernot Trauner powered his header home at the near post.
Poland should have levelled within nine further minutes, only for Nicola Zalewski to lift a wild effort over the crossbar. However, they did get their equaliser on the half-hour mark.
A fortunate deflection off Trauner saw the ball fall to Krzysztof Piatek, who kept his composure to slot into the bottom-right corner and reward Poland's improvement.
Having missed last week's defeat to the Netherlands with a thigh injury, Poland talisman Robert Lewandowski was introduced from the bench on the hour mark, but it was Austria who regained the lead seven minutes later through Baumgartner.
Arnautovic dummied Alexander Prass' ball infield, allowing Baumgartner to send Wojciech Szczesny the wrong way with a composed finish from the edge of the box.
Arnautovic then made the points safe from the penalty spot with 12 minutes remaining, converting into the bottom-right corner after Marcel Sabitzer had raced clear and been felled by Szczesny.
Austria should have had a fourth late on as Konrad Laimer shot across the face of goal after rounding Szczesny, but their victory means avoiding defeat against the Netherlands next Tuesday would likely send them through to the last 16.
Data Debrief: Arnautovic on the spot
At the age of 35 years and 63 days, Arnautovic became the third-oldest player to score a penalty at the Euros, after Ivica Vastic (38 years, 257 days) and Cristiano Ronaldo (three penalties scored at the age of 36).
A surprise inclusion after being benched for Austria's 1-0 loss to France, the Inter man led the line impressively, winning seven of his nine total duels and drawing three fouls.
Garwin Tulloch, USG on board as Portmore United announce new leadership, board of directors
Many-time Jamaica Premier League (JPL) champions Portmore United have added United Sports Group (USG) and Garwin Tulloch to its ownership group, as the club continues to chart a course towards reclaiming its glory days at the pinnacle of the nation’s top-flight league.
USG is a consortium comprising Tina Matalon, Ryan Reid, Khary Robinson, Duncan Stewart and Jackie Lechler, all prominent and successful Jamaican business leaders across various sectors, while Tulloch is a director of Kemtek Development & Construction Company Limited.
Kemtek, a family business, and one of Jamaica’s leading home construction companies, boasts major investments in the development of commercial and residential properties across various Jamaican communities including the sprawling metropolitan Portmore community.
For Portmore United, the addition of these new investors will strengthen the operational and financial capacity of the club, which is one of Jamaica’s marquee clubs and the most successful in the JPL, having won seven titles –the first two as Hazard United in 1993 and 2003.
The JPL has increased in popularity over the years and even more so in the post pandemic period, under the Chris Williams-led Professional Football Jamaica Limited (PFJL). During this time, the PFJL has seen tremendous growth in the League’s commercial viability and the economic prospects of the Clubs.
This expansion of an increasingly sophisticated investor pool facilitates the collective vision of the PFJL and the JPL clubs, which is to enhance the financial and operational capacity of the Clubs. The path to achieve that includes leveraging existing revenue streams like sponsorships, player sales, broadcasting, digital media, merchandizing and increased gate receipts, through additional investments in infrastructure, something that USG’s Khary Robinson is pleased to be a part of.
“United Sports Group believes that this strategic investment will further empower Portmore United Football Club to achieve even greater football success and become a catalyst for positive community development. Our leadership group is committed to delivering the time, strategic support and capital to enable the PUFC brand to maximize its potential in the sporting industry commercial space,” Robinson said.
Tulloch echoed similar sentiments.
“Football has remained one of my great passions and the desire to give back to the community through the sport has always been a driving force for me personally. My association with the JPL through Kemtek sponsorship of the League, led me to an association with the principals of Portmore United Football Club,” Tulloch shared.
“From the onset I was impressed with the vision and professionalism across the organization and the decision to invest was a no brainer for me. It is an association that I’m confident will yield great benefits to the various stakeholders of the Club,” he added.
Consequent on the additional ownership compliment, Portmore United’s new Board of Directors, will see Tulloch serving as chairman, with Garfield Sinclair, Peter Baker, Khary Robinson, Clinton Brooks and Garth Pearce, the memebers.
Switzerland v Germany: Nagelsmann sets sight on top spot in Group A
Julian Nagelsmann wants his Germany team to stay perfect as they aim to top Group A at Euro 2024.
The hosts secured qualification for the last 16 by dispatching Hungary 2-0 last time out, following on from their 5-1 demolition of Scotland.
Their final group match sees them take on Switzerland, who are two points behind in second place, meaning a defeat for Germany on Sunday would see the Swiss top the group.
That is a scenario that Nagelsmann is desperate to avoid, as he confirmed there will be few changes to his line-up, despite Germany's progress having been assured.
"Top spot is important. We want to win all our matches," Nagelsmann said.
"I do think it is important to have as many players from the starting 11 on the pitch so that we stay in the rhythm.
"Do not expect to have seven changes to the team. I can rule that out now."
Germany's match with the Swiss will take place in Frankfurt, where England and Denmark played on Thursday, with both sides struggling with how the pitch chopped up.
Deniz Undav, however, says teams simply have to adapt to the surfaces.
"There a still a few days left, so maybe the pitch will improve until then," said the forward.
"But you have to be able to adapt to the conditions. We want to win on Sunday. So, whether we play on grass or stones, we have to win."
Switzerland's Xherdan Shaqiri, meanwhile, knows his team must expect the sternest of challenges.
"We know we are now up against a team that is of a different calibre with their super attack and the euphoria [as hosts]," he said.
"But we are going into the game with confidence and look forward to it. Obviously, we want to trouble the Germans."
Opta's supercomputer makes Germany favourites to win the group, with a 77% likelihood the hosts finish top.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Switzerland - Xherdan Shaqiri
Only Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in more major international tournaments than Switzerland forward Shaqiri, who has now netted at each of the last six such tournaments since and including the 2014 World Cup.
In fact, Shaqiri is the only European player to have scored at the last six major tournaments.
Germany - Jamal Musiala
Musiala is aiming to become the first Germany player to score in each of his nation's opening three games at a major tournament since Miroslav Klose at the 2002 World Cup, and the first ever to do so at the European Championship.
Aged 21 years and 118 days when this game is played, he would be the second-youngest player ever to do so for any nation, behind only Peru's Teofilo Cubillas (21y 94d) at the 1970 World Cup.
MATCH PREDICTION: GERMANY WIN
This will be Switzerland and Germany's first encounter at a major tournament since the 1966 World Cup; West Germany beat Switzerland 5-0 in the group stages. They also met in the 1938 and 1962 World Cups.
Germany have won each of their last three games at major international tournaments by 2+ goals (4-2 v Costa Rica, 5-1 v Scotland, 2-0 v Hungary) with the Netherlands at the 1974 World Cup the last nation to record four such victories in a row.
They are aiming to become the third host nation to win all three of their group stage games at a single edition of the European Championship after the Netherlands in 2000 and France in 1984.
Meanwhile, they would be the first host team to do so at a major international tournament since the Germans themselves at the 2006 World Cup (Excluding Euro 2020 - 11 host nations).
However, Switzerland are unbeaten in their last three matches against Germany (W1 D2), with those three matches producing 16 goals, an average of 5.3 per game. The Swiss had lost 16 of their previous 18 matches against the Germans (D2), so they should certainly not be discounted.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Switzerland - 23.5%
Germany - 52.3%
Draw - 24.2%
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