Euro 2024 kicks off on Friday as Germany take on Scotland in Munich, and a flying start is on the agenda for Julian Nagelsmann's team.
Scotland, in their fourth appearance at the European Championships, would probably have been hoping for an easier start than going up against the hosts in the tournament's opening match.
Steve Clarke's team qualified in second place, behind Spain and ahead of Erling Haaland's Norway, from their group.
Germany, meanwhile, have picked up form under Nagelsmann since he was appointed as Hansi Flick's successor, and the former Bayern Munich coach has plenty of talent at his disposal, even if the Euro 2024 hosts are not considered to be among the biggest favourites.
Mats Hummels, Serge Gnabry and Leon Goretzka are three big-name absentees from Germany's squad, while Bayern youngster Aleksandar Pavlovic had to withdraw from the squad on Wednesday due to injury.
But in Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Leroy Sane, Kai Havertz and Borussia Dortmund's Niclas Fullkrug, Germany have an exciting attack, while Toni Kroos will anchor the midfield before he heads off into retirement.
This is Nagelsmann's first major tournament as head coach. Jupp Derwall was the last Germany boss to win a major tournament with them at the first attempt (Euro 1980).
Here, we use Opta data to preview the Euro 2024 opener.
What's expected?
It's no surprise to see that Germany are the overwhelming favourites to win this match, with Opta's supercomputer ranking their chances of victory at 58 per cent.
Germany and Scotland are facing each other for the third time at a major tournament. Germany won the two previous encounters, in the group stages of the 1986 World Cup (2-1) and Euro 1992 (2-0).
Indeed, Scotland have won only one of their last 13 matches against Germany (D4 L8); it was in April 1999, with Don Hutchison scoring the only goal in a Bremen friendly (0-1).
After losing to Turkiye and Austria, Germany have gone unbeaten in their last four matches. That being said, they were not particularly impressive in their warm-up matches.
Following a 0-0 draw with Ukraine, Germany beat Greece 2-1 last time out, though they mustered a disappointing 0.88 expected goals (xG), in contrast to their opponents' 2.14.
The scoreline is the statistic that matters at tournaments, with Havertz grabbing an equaliser midway through the second half before Pascal Gross secured a late victory, but it should give Scotland some hope, even though they are handed just a 21 per cent win likelihood, with the draw threat also at 21 per cent.
Scotland won their first five Euro 2024 qualifiers but then failed to win any of their final three (D2 L1), conceding seven goals in those games after only shipping one goal in their first five games.
They beat Gibraltar 2-0 and then drew 2-2 with Finland in their warm-up friendlies, though they head into Euro 2024 without some key players, with full-backs Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson, and striker Lyndon Dykes, out due to injury.
Germany have won only one of their last five matches played in Munich (D3 L1), a 4-2 victory against Portugal at Euro 2020, so while the smart money is on the hosts, Scotland should not go into this one without confidence, with captain Andrew Robertson and midfield duo John McGinn and Scott McTominay offering a threat, too.
Home hopes
This is the fourth time that Germany are sole hosts of a major international tournament, reaching the final four in each of the previous three editions: champions at the 1974 World Cup, semi-finalists at Euro 1988 and third place at the 2006 World Cup.
Germany are taking part in their 14th Euros, more than any other team. They have won the trophy three times, the joint-most alongside Spain.
Nagelsmann has been happy to lean on inexperience for his squad selection, and in Wirtz and Musiala, he has two of the most exciting youngsters in world football at his disposal.
Wirtz scored 11 goals and added 11 assists during Bayer Leverkusen's unbeaten Bundesliga title-winning campaign to claim Player of the Season honours in Germany's top tier.
Musiala, meanwhile, scored 10 goals from an xG of 7.9 in the league.
Behind them, the returning Kroos brings plenty of experience, alongside Ilkay Gundogan, who created the second-most chances of any player in Europe's top five leagues in all competitions in 2023-24, with 132.
Havertz is likely to lead the line with support from Fullkrug, but Thomas Muller is another weapon in Germany's arsenal. He has scored 10 goals in 19 appearances at the World Cup (36 shots), but he has never scored in 15 appearances at the European Championships (31 shots).
Will it finally be Muller time?
At the other end of the pitch, though, Germany do have some issues. On paper, Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck and Antonio Rudiger are a fine trio to choose from in the centre of defence, while Joshua Kimmich can play at right-back, but Nagelsmann needs to make sure the team's defending is better than it was against Greece. Perhaps Hummels' experience would have been useful?
Germany have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 12 games at major international tournaments. The last time they kept a clean sheet was against Slovakia in the round of 16 at Euro 2016.
Fourth time lucky?
This is Clarke's second major international tournament as a manager, after Euro 2020. He is the first Scotland boss to lead the team into two consecutive Euros.
Scotland have never reached the knockouts of the Euros in any of their three previous appearances at the tournament.
They have won just two of their nine Euro matches, with those victories coming over CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) in 1992 and Switzerland in 1996. Scotland have failed to score in six of their nine games at the European Championships.
While Germany are one of the toughest possible opponents to face first up, if Scotland could get something from this match, then they would be in a great position ahead of meetings with Hungary and Switzerland.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Germany – Toni Kroos
Kroos' presence in midfield will be a major boost to a team that averaged 59.3 per cent possession at Euro 2020 – second only to Spain (66.8 per cent).
The 34-year-old came out of international retirement to feature for Germany in their home tournament, though of course, it will now mark the final competitive event of his career.
Kroos – who won his sixth Champions League with Real Madrid this month – played more line-breaking passes (214) and passes leading to final-third entries (69) than any other player in UEFA's flagship club competition in 2023-24.
Scotland – Scott McTominay
A strong defence helped get them through qualifying, with a sprinkling of quality from McTominay, who was the top scorer in qualifying Group A with seven goals – one more than Manchester City superstar Haaland managed for Norway.
McTominay's goal tally is the joint most by a Scottish player in a Euros/World Cup qualifying campaign, along with Steven Fletcher (Euro 2016) and McGinn (Euro 2020).
And what is even more impressive, is that McTominay's goals came from just 1.77 xG, an overperformance of 5.23.
Guardiola agrees two-year contract extension with Man City
Pep Guardiola will be Manchester City manager for at least two more seasons after 2024-25, after he signed a two-year contract extension on Thursday.
The 53-year-old was coming to the end of his City deal, which was due to expire at the end of the current campaign, but he has opted to remain at the Etihad Stadium.
The deal itself will take Guardiola's tenure at the club to over a decade, making him City's longest-serving manager since Les McDowall in 1963.
There had been suggestions that he may leave at the end of the season following the announcement that director of football Txiki Begiristain was on his way out.
Guardiola was strongly linked with the England job after Gareth Southgate resigned in the wake of their Euro 2024 final defeat, but the Football Association appointed Thomas Tuchel last month.
“Manchester City means so much to me," Guardiola said. “This is my ninth season here; we have experienced so many amazing times together. I have a really special feeling for this football club.
“That is why I am so happy to be staying for another two more seasons.
“Thank you to everyone for continuing to trust and support me – The Owner, The Chairman Khaldoon, Ferran, Txiki, the players and, of course, the fans… everyone connected to Manchester City. It has always been an honour, a pleasure and a privilege to be here.
“I have said this many times before, but I have everything a manager could ever wish for, and I appreciate that so much.
“Hopefully, now we can add more trophies to the ones we have already won. That will be my focus.”
Having been appointed in 2016, Guardiola is by some distance Manchester City's most successful manager of all time, having won 18 major trophies during his time at the club.
That list includes their first-ever Champions League triumph in 2023 and six Premier League titles, including an unprecedented four on the spin.
He also boasts a 72.04% win percentage across all competitions, which is unsurprisingly the highest of any full-time City manager in history.
Shaw at the double as Man City progress in Champions League
Khadija Shaw scored twice as Manchester City beat Hammarby 2-1 to seal their place in the Women's Champions League quarter-finals.
Gareth Taylor's team entered Thursday's game with a perfect record in Group D, and their fourth win in as many European matches ensured they finished in the top two.
Shaw—the leading scorer in the Women's Super League this season with eight goals—put them ahead in the 31st minute, driving into the area after taking in Yui Hasegawa's pass before seeing her shot deflect into the top corner.
Shaw was booked for celebrating in front of the home fans despite appearing to have objects thrown at her from the stands, and Hammarby should have levelled when Julia Blakstad fired wide 10 minutes later.
The hosts did draw level three minutes into the second half as Ellen Wangerheim tapped home while City's Laura Blindkilde Brown was down appealing for a free-kick.
That parity was short-lived, though, as Shaw blasted into the top corner from 25 yards out, taking her overall tally for this season to 12 goals in all competitions.
In Group C, meanwhile, Bayern Munich lost their perfect record as they played out a 1-1 draw with Valerenga, boosting Arsenal's hopes of topping the pile.
Jovana Damnjanovic came off the bench to put Bayern ahead 15 minutes from time in Norway, but Elise Thorsnes headed home following an 88th-minute corner to snatch a point for the hosts.
Arsenal could now move within a point of Bayern when they face Juventus in Group C's other match later on Thursday.
Girlz coach Busby eyes improved performance as 'Bunny' Shaw returns for South Africa friendlies
With Jamaica’s senior Reggae Girlz failing to register a win since beating Panama at last year’s Fifa Women’s World Cup, Head coach Hubert Busby says the two highly anticipated home friendlies against South Africa represent an opportunity to turnaround their poor run of form.
Though focused on more than just immediate results, Busby pointed out that victory in upcoming matches is part of a larger vision—a journey toward a third-consecutive World Cup appearance in 2027 and the continued development of a sustainable, competitive program for Jamaica’s women’s football.
The Girlz will take on South Africa at the Montego Bay Sports Complex on November 29 and December 2, in what will be their first matches on home soil since November 2022. It will also be the first game in Jamaica for the core group of the 2023 World Cup squad since last September’s Olympic qualifying playoff against Canada.
“It’s special to have the girls back playing in front of our fans. This is an opportunity to connect with the home crowd again, but it’s also a critical step in our preparation for what’s ahead,” Busby shared as he unveiled his 23-member squad.
“We're looking to have a good performance, then that leads to, obviously, a good result to end the year, but really it is also about us continuing to evaluate and to make the proper assessment of the players who continue to kind of move forward into World Cup qualifiers. I mean, that's really the bigger picture. So short term, let's get two good performances this week...two good results and take that into the February window,” he added.
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw has been in good form for Manchester City.
Busby’s approach reflects his determination to build on recent experiences, including lessons learned from challenging matches against top-tier opponents like Brazil and more recently, France.
Despite a compressed six-day camp prior to that encounter, in which they lost 0-3, he noted the progress made in refining their style of play, particularly in maintaining possession and executing defensive transitions.
“We didn’t get the result we wanted against France, but there were positives, especially in how we’re evolving our style of play—keeping possession and building from the back. But we need to cut down on individual mistakes and improve decision-making in critical moments. Football is a game of moments, and minimizing mistakes during crucial periods is a key focus for us,” he noted.
With the 2027 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Brazil as the ultimate target, Busby has been focused on establishing a winning culture while integrating new talent into the team.
For the last camp, he invited Taylor Hinds, Lulu Jarvis, Reanna Blades, and Natasha Thomas in to see how they fit into the programme, but none of those players are listed for the upcoming camp, in which national youth representative Destiny Powell and Naya Cardoza will be the only new players among the core group.
The coach stressed that his job is not just to guide the team to their third consecutive World Cup but to lay the groundwork for Jamaica’s participation in every World Cup thereafter, hence the consistent inclusion of young talent.
“It’s not just about Brazil in 2027. It’s about creating a sustainable pipeline of talent so we’re always competitive because their growth today will fuel our success tomorrow. So it's really important to get these young players in,” Busby shared.
“My responsibility is to get this team to the 2027 World Cup, but with that said, you know, we want to ensure that we're going to every single World Cup afterwards. Integrating young, talented players into the group to see where they are keeps the group fresh and challenges the group to keep it competitive. The success that we've had in the past, the average age, I believe was about 26 years of age, so they'll probably be about 28 going forward,” he explained.
One of the most exciting elements of the upcoming friendlies is the return of Khadija “Bunny” Shaw, who has been in rich form for Manchester City.
Busby, while highlighting her influence, both as a leader and a prolific scorer, as key to the team’s offensive strategy, also emphasized that the team’s success needs to be rooted in defence as former captain Konya Plummer, left full-back/winger Siobhan Wilson, and defensive midfielder Peyton McNamara also make a return to the fold. Wilson recently recovered from an ACL injury.
Siobhan Wilson makes a long-awaited return after an ACL injury kept her out of action for nine months.
“One of our objectives is to keep a clean sheet. Being good defensively has been the basis of our foundation of success without a doubt, but the biggest inclusion in this group is leader ‘Bunny’ Shaw. She's been in great form, as we all know, so it gives us another option up front to go around with all the as to go along with the other attacking options we have. But having her back in the group helps tremendously,” the tactician declared.
Like the Reggae Girlz, South Africa are also fresh off their participation in the 2023 World Cup, and Busby expects the games to be another tough challenge for his side, much like it was in their last meeting in 2019 when they played out a 1-1 stalemate in Durban.
“Going into these two games against a great-quality opponent in South Africa still gives us a really good litmus test in terms of where we are and, more importantly, where we need to go. So that is the objective. We want to get the wins. We want to improve performance. And we're hoping that these next two games will see a much more improved performance than we have before, that's for sure,” Busby ended.
Squad: Rebecca spencer, Liya Brooks, Allyson Swaby, Konya Plummer, Naya Cardoza, Vyan Sampson, Chantelle Swaby, Deneisha Blackwood, Siobhan Wilson, Atlanta Primus, Destiny Powell, Peyton McNamara, Jade Bailey Drew Spence, Paige Bailey-Gayle, Olufolasade Adamolekun, Khadija Shaw, Kayla McKenna, Davia Richards, Jody Brown, Shania Hayles, Shaniel Buckley, Tiffany Cameron
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