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• Premier League MD11: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

  The final international break of 2024 is here, and we can safely say the Premier League is starting to take shape.

  Opta's supercomputer now has Liverpool, who are five points clear at the top following their win over Aston Villa on Saturday, as the favourites to go on and win the title.

  Manchester City lost a fourth straight game in all competitions as they went down 2-1 at Brighton, while Chelsea and Arsenal are third and fourth respectively after sharing the points.

  When assessing the underlying metrics, it looks like Sunday's draw at Stamford Bridge was a fair result, but that was not the case across the board this weekend.

  Here, we pick out the lucky winners and unlucky losers from matchday 11.

  Lucky winners: Manchester United

  Manchester United are now under new management, with Ruben Amorim officially starting as head coach on Monday. But interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy ensured he went out with a high as the Red Devils beat Leicester City 3-0 on Sunday.

  However, it is fair to say United were rather fortunate to net three times at Old Trafford, with the data suggesting they did not even create chances worthy of one goal, never mind three.

  United's expected goals (xG) was 0.69, the third-lowest total in the league this weekend and behind Leicester's 0.77.

  Bruno Fernandes scored one and set up another on his 250th appearance for the club, either side of Victor Kristiansen's own goal, but from 13 shots, United, who had only 17 touches in Leicester's box, really did not create much in the way of quality opportunities.

  Indeed, their attacking quality instead told, with Fernandes and Alejandro Garnacho finishing well. At the other end, Leicester failed to make their moments count, despite hitting the target with five of their six shots.

  Spare a thought for Erik ten Hag, given when he was in charge, United's attack was underperforming. Now Amorim just needs to pick up where Van Nistelrooy left off...

  Unlucky losers: Manchester City

  Man City are suddenly the crisis club, having lost four straight games for the first time since August 2006. Pep Guardiola, meanwhile, has lost four games in a row in all competitions for the very first time in his managerial career.

  Erling Haaland also lost a Premier League match in which he scored a goal for the very first time, having put City ahead before Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley clinched the points for Brighton.

   

  Brighton finished with 2.29 xG, so they did deserve to score at least twice. However, City can still consider themselves unfortunate, given their 2.22 xG was the third-highest of any team across the weekend.

  Their post-shot expected goals on target (xGoT) also rose to 2.98, showing that Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen was on fine form.

  City also created five big chances, missing four of them, and hit the woodwork once. That being said, they conceded eight big chances, with Brighton letting them off for six of those, so it was not a good day at the office for Guardiola.

  Unlucky losers: Bournemouth

  If Man City were unfortunate, then the team to have created the highest xG (2.61) this past weekend – Bournemouth – can consider themselves hard done by.

  Andoni Iraola claimed his team were worthy of the three points against Brentford, despite the Cherries losing 3-2, and the underlying metrics suggest the Spaniard was fair in his assessment.

   

  Only Tottenham (35 in their loss against Ipswich Town) had more touches in the opponent's box than Bournemouth's 34 at the Gtech Community Stadium, but Iraola's side were made to pay for some dismal finishing.

  Their xGoT dropped to 1.68, while Brentford's rose from 1.48 xG to 1.84 xGoT – essentially, the level of finishing from Brentford's players increased the likelihood they would score, while Bournemouth's finishing was below what would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they had. That is further backed up by the fact the Cherries only got three of their 15 attempts on target.

• Man City need to 'change things quickly' – Guardiola

  Pep Guardiola conceded Manchester City need to "change things quickly" after they suffered a fourth consecutive loss in all competitions against Brighton.

  It is the first time the Spaniard has lost four games in a row in his managerial career, while the last time City suffered four consecutive defeats was back in August 2006, under Stuart Pearce.

  Erling Haaland had given the visitors a first-half lead, but two quickfire goals from substitutes Joao Pedro and Matt O'Riley turned the match on its head, with Brighton the better side in the second half.

  In fact, City have lost a Premier League game in which they led at half-time for the first time since May 2021, and that defeat also came away to Brighton.

  And Guardiola suggested his team, who have been rocked by injuries, are simply finding matters too tough.

  "We are not able to do 90 minutes right now," Guardiola told BBC Sport. "We played a really good first half and moments in the second half.

  "We lost again, so clean our heads, international break and hopefully our players come back fit.

  "We have to try and win games again. We were not able to sustain the rhythm in the second half. Four [defeats] in a row. We have to change things quickly.

  "The schedule becomes tough, but it is going to happen when the players come back. Maybe after seven years, winning six Premier Leagues, maybe one year another team deserve it. We'll see."

  City have conceded 10 goals during their losing streak, managing just four goals of their own in that time.

  The reigning Premier League champions have more tough games coming up, with Tottenham and Liverpool their next opponents in the top flight, and Kyle Walker believes the international break may have come at the right time.

  "There are slight moments that aren't rubbing off in our favour. Certain challenges we're arriving a little late for. That's the period we're going through. The break is coming at the right time," he said.

  "There are many reasons. It's form, it's how we're feeling on a day to day. It's tough. We've been fortunate to have success here in the last eight years. This is the time you show character and stick your boots on and go through the mud. Now we get to see the real characters and want to push forward and achieve something special.

  "We've never gone four games without a wi.  Still, it's tough to take. Everyone wants to turn it around."

• 'He's going to be a top player' – Fulham boss Silva lauds Smith Rowe

  Fulham boss Marco Silva waxed lyrical over Emile Smith Rowe after his side defeated Crystal Palace 2-0 to move level on points with Arsenal and Chelsea in the Premier League.

  Smith Rowe opened the scoring for the Cottagers in the first-half stoppage time, latching on to a pass from Raul Jimenez and finishing past Palace goalkeeper Dean Henderson. 

  Harry Wilson, who was Fulham's hero against Brentford on Monday, then sealed the victory with seven minutes left on the clock as Silva's team made it 18 points from 11 matches in the league this season. 

  And speaking after the game, Silva was full of praise for his team and particularly Smith Rowe, who bagged his third league goal of the season at Selhurst Park. Only during the 2021-22 season, when he scored 10 goals for Arsenal, has the 24-year-old netted more in a single campaign. 

  "When I saw [Smith Rowe] and we had a small chance to fight to have him here, I told our board that we need to fight with everything we can because we needed a player like him," Silva told BBC Sport. 

  "Creative in those pocket areas, a player who will score more throughout the season – I don't have doubts. He's a lovely kid, a lovely boy who is going to become a man and improve."

  "He's already a really good player, he's going to be a top player. It's so nice to have a talent like him to work with."

  Smith Rowe not only scored, but also created three chances, which was a total bettered by only his team-mate Alex Iwobi (four).