The Premier League is back, with another fascinating season in store.
The 2021-22 title race went right to the wire, with Manchester City pipping Liverpool at the last, while the picture at the bottom was similarly dramatic as Leeds United survived.
The dominant top two have strengthened – including City pinching Leeds talisman Kalvin Phillips – and the league again looks so tough to call at both ends of the table.
Thankfully, Stats Perform AI is able to do that. It has predicted the outcome of the coming campaign, estimating the likelihood of teams finishing in each position informed by their expected results in each match.
These are calculated using betting odds and Stats Perform's team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances – and it has thrown up some interesting results, with some surprises at the summit.
LIVERPOOL SET TO LEAPFROG CITY
There was only a point between champions City and runners-up Liverpool last season, and Stats Perform AI expects the coming campaign to be similarly close.
But the Reds are the favourites for the title, with a 49.72 per cent chance of being crowned champions to City's 47.03 per cent.
Such is the gulf between the top two and the rest that Tottenham, backed as their nearest challengers, have only a 1.81 per shot at ending their 62-year wait under former Premier League winner Antonio Conte.
Chelsea, the club with whom Conte claimed the title, are given a 1.1 per cent hope.
Only seven teams are given any chance at all of celebrating come May – the fewest across all of Europe's top five leagues – with Manchester United (0.18 per cent) and Arsenal (0.13 per cent) joined by a resurgent Newcastle United (0.03 per cent).
Last champions in 1927, Newcastle are closing on a century-long drought, so even with their big spending, a one in 3,000 shot sounds about right.
UNITED AND ARSENAL FALL SHORT
Stats Perform AI does not only fancy Spurs and Chelsea as the top two's nearest contenders but also as their fellow Champions League qualifiers.
City (99.33 per cent) and Liverpool (99.28 per cent) are shoo-ins for top-four finishes, and Tottenham (70.07 per cent) and Chelsea (62.46 per cent) are also in strong positions to repeat last season's leading quartet.
That would mean Manchester United (25.56 per cent) and Arsenal (22.0 per cent) missing out once more, with Newcastle (5.03 per cent) again next.
However, despite West Ham being given no hope of a title tilt and longer odds of Champions League qualification, they are ranked to repeat their seventh-placed finish ahead of Newcastle.
Every team in the division at least has the opportunity to dream of a top-four finish, even if Bournemouth (0.07 per cent) might instead be better off preparing for the reality of a relegation scrap.
TALL ORDER FOR PROMOTED TRIO
Bournemouth are not the only promoted team set to find life tough. In fact, Stats Perform AI predicts all three will go straight back down.
This has only happened once previously in Premier League history – in 1997-98 – but the prediction model considers the trio clear favourites to be relegated.
Bournemouth (45.03 per cent) have scarcely improved their squad, while Nottingham Forest have done the opposite and invested heavily (44.47 per cent); neither approach is expected to succeed, nor are Fulham (43.83 per cent), promoted as champions.
It may not be as clear-cut as this suggests, however, with Southampton (34.23 per cent), Brentford (31.85) and Leeds (31.24) also forecast to endure testing seasons.
Everton (15.06 per cent), like Brentford and Leeds, have lost key players, but the data is backing the Toffees to improve on last year's dismal campaign.
Vlahovic out of Juventus clash with Milan
Dusan Vlahovic will miss Juventus' trip to Milan in Serie A this weekend and is also a doubt for the Champions League game at Aston Villa, head coach Thiago Motta has confirmed.
Vlahovic returned from the international break with a muscle problem in his left thigh, and the manager, after he confirmed the Serbian's absence for Saturday's game at San Siro, was asked about his chances of playing on Wednesday at Villa Park.
"I don't know. He definitely won't be there tomorrow. We hope to have him back as soon as possible," Motta told a press conference on Friday.
"Injuries are part of football. Now it's Vlahovic's turn, but we'll keep playing with the same principles, attacking and defending together."
Vlahovic is the latest of Motta's injury problems at Juventus. Argentine winger Nicolas Gonzalez missed the last six league games and is still unavailable, while Poland striker Arkadiusz Milik is a long-term absentee.
Brazilian midfielder Douglas Luiz will also miss the game with Milan and defender Juan Cabal recently suffered an Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injury, the same issue which will keep fellow defender Gleison Bremer out for the rest of the season.
"I'm really disappointed for Cabal because, like Bremer, he'll be out for a long time," Motta said.
"This is another reason to push ourselves, to commit that bit more so that these absences don't weigh too heavily."
Juventus go into the game as the only unbeaten side in Serie A but find themselves sixth in the standings in what is so far a very tight title race, with just two points separating Motta's side from leaders Napoli.
"It's very balanced and this is good for both us and the public," Motta said.
"We must all try to continue like this. We have to try to get as many positive results as possible."
Milan are one place behind Juve but six points off Motta's side.
Vlahovic out of Juventus clash with AC Milan
Dusan Vlahovic will miss Juventus' trip to AC Milan in Serie A this weekend and is also a doubt for the Champions League game at Aston Villa, head coach Thiago Motta has confirmed.
Vlahovic returned from the international break with a muscle problem in his left thigh, and the manager, after he confirmed the Serbian's absence for Saturday's game at San Siro, was asked about his chances of playing on Wednesday at Villa Park.
"I don't know. He definitely won't be there tomorrow. We hope to have him back as soon as possible," Motta told a press conference on Friday.
"Injuries are part of football. Now it's Vlahovic's turn, but we'll keep playing with the same principles, attacking and defending together."
Vlahovic is the latest of Motta's injury problems at Juventus. Argentine winger Nicolas Gonzalez missed the last six league games and is still unavailable, while Poland striker Arkadiusz Milik is a long-term absentee.
Brazilian midfielder Douglas Luiz will also miss the game with Milan and defender Juan Cabal recently suffered an Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injury, the same issue which will keep fellow defender Gleison Bremer out for the rest of the season.
"I'm really disappointed for Cabal because, like Bremer, he'll be out for a long time," Motta said.
"This is another reason to push ourselves, to commit that bit more so that these absences don't weigh too heavily."
Juventus go into the game as the only unbeaten side in Serie A, but find themselves sixth in the standings in what is so far a very tight title race, with just two points separating Motta's side from leaders Napoli.
"It's very balanced and this is good for both us and the public," Motta said.
"We must all try to continue like this. We have to try to get as many positive results as possible."
Milan are one place behind Juve but six points off Motta's side.
Schwarz believes pressure will bring out the best in Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls head coach Sandro Schwarz says pressure is good for players as they prepare to face rivals New York City FC in the MLS Eastern Conference semifinal.
The Red Bulls beat defending MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew 1-0 in the first of their best-of-three series before edging them 5-4 on penalties in Game 2.
They are playing in the semifinals for the first time since 2018, though it is the first time they are meeting their city rivals in the postseason in their history.
Schwarz acknowledged there was a lot riding on this game but is sure the pressure can bring out the best in his team.
"To feel the pressure as a player and head coach is good," he told reporters. "We need the pressure to bring our best performance and level.
"Without pressure, it's not possible. Now we have this historic derby on Saturday and we're very excited.
"Our main target is to win this game, but our focus is to get a result like we had against Columbus. The last three weeks have been looking at how we can create our best performance for Saturday."
Meanwhile, NYCFC had to come from behind in round one after losing their first match to FC Cincinnati but won the second at home before going through with a 6-5 penalty shootout win in the decider.
Head coach Nick Cushing is delighted to have home advantage for the semifinal tie but says he is not yet thinking about securing the same fate in the next round.
"I've learned over my tenure here as assistant coach and as head coach that the next game is the most important part," Cushing said.
"The whole focus is hosting a playoff semifinal at home. We're really proud that we've done everything to get to this opportunity, but there are many more challenges ahead, and we cannot look further than the first 10 minutes of the game, because that is our main focus.
"And then, through there, we have a game plan and half-time. We're working through this game, and that is our whole focus."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
New York City FC – Alonzo Martinez
Twelve of Alonzo Martinez's 17 goals this season (regular season and playoffs) have been scored in home matches, while Santiago Rodriguez has scored 11 of his 13 goals at home.
Both players found the net in NYCFC's home win over Cincinnati in Game 2 of their first-round series.
New York Red Bulls – Emil Forsberg
Emil Forsberg became the 14th different Red Bulls player to record a goal and an assist in a single playoff match in Game 2 of New York's first-round series against Columbus Crew.
No player has more than one such game in the team's postseason history.
MATCH PREDICTION: NEW YORK CITY FC WIN
This will be the first playoff meeting between New York City FC and the Red Bulls, but the fifth in knockout rounds in all competitions.
The Red Bulls eliminated NYCFC in each of the previous four knockout round meetings, doing so in the US Open Cup three times and the Leagues Cup once.
NYCFC has won five of their eight all-time home playoff matches, including the last three in a row. All three teams that defeated NYCFC on the road in the playoffs went on to reach the MLS Cup Final (Toronto FC in 2016 & 2019, Atlanta United in 2018).
The Red Bulls' 1-0 win at Columbus in Game 1 on October 29 ended a six-match road losing streak in postseason play for the club. The Red Bulls have won multiple road playoff games in a single season twice before, doing so in 2008 and 2017.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
New York City FC – 46.5%
Draw – 26.5%
New York Red Bulls – 27%
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