Here, the PA news agency looks at the key issues ahead of the fourth Test.
Eyes on the skies
While it is never wise to stick too slavishly to the British weather forecast, it is impossible to ignore the likelihood of rain intervening in this match. Showers are predicted to play a part throughout but there is a particular concern over the weekend, when things are set to get extremely wet. That could play into Australia’s hands given a drawn match would see them retain the urn. England, on the other hand, need two more victories to win it back and are likely to be open to generating a result even if it means taking a gamble. With different motivations it remains to be seen whether there will be enough time and enough will to reach a fitting conclusion.
Australia to bin the spin?
The tourists are leaving it late to settle an unexpected selection quandary, with first-choice all-rounder Cameron Green fit again after Headingley and his temporary stand-in Mitchell Marsh effectively undroppable with a brilliant century as understudy. There was speculation that off-form opener David Warner could be the man to make way but it increasingly seems that spinner Todd Murphy is the man at risk. Australia have not gone into a Test without a frontline slow bowler since January 2012 but with Nathan Lyon injured and his deputy considered more dispensable they are pondering a significant change to the balance of their side. Deploying Green and Marsh would bolster their batting and make them harder to bowl out twice but leave their options in the field much diminished.
Three is the Moeen number
The number three position has caused plenty of headaches for England over the years and familiar questions resurfaced when incumbent Ollie Pope dislocated his shoulder at Lord’s. After a one-innings experiment with Harry Brook, Moeen Ali volunteered for a surprise promotion in the Headingley chase. Despite being bowled for just five he has now been inked in at first drop, allowing the likes of Brook, Joe Root and Ben Stokes to bat in their preferred positions lower down. It is a big ask for the all-rounder, who initially agreed to return from retirement as a number eight and averages 15.75 from his four knocks this summer, but this England side are not averse to a gamble.
Age concern for England?
When it comes to taking wickets England have made sure they will not lack for experience in Manchester. Their five main bowlers for this Test have a combined age of 180, with James Anderson returning to the fray less than a fortnight before his 41st birthday. Their side is the first to go into an Ashes Test with four pace bowlers aged 33 or above since the Australian class of 1928, but few England fans would argue with the composition of the attack on current form. Moeen suggested the hosts are hoping to prove the adage that “old is gold” and Anderson would love nothing more than making that point. He has never taken a Test five-for at his home ground and is unlikely to have too many more shots at the honours’ board.
Will Jonny be good
England have rowed in hard behind Jonny Bairstow as wicketkeeper, rendering Ben Foakes’ imperious glovework surplus to requirements. Bairstow has had an eventful series as he continues to feel his way back from a badly broken leg – locking horns with a Just Stop Oil protester, being controversially stumped by Alex Carey and facing constant scrutiny over his keeping. But the bare facts are that he has let eight chances pass him by. That has materially hindered England’s prospects and nobody will know better than him that he needs to reach a higher level this week. He has a long track record of performing best when under pressure and his fight-or-flight response will be needed again.
England battled their way back into the series at Headingley with a three-wicket win to now trail 2-1 but they must prevail at both Emirates Old Trafford and the Kia Oval to regain the urn from Australia.
Complicating matters for the hosts is the heavy rain predicted in Manchester on days four and five this weekend, which could hasten England to try to push the game along to make sure of a result.
Under captain Stokes and head coach Brendon McCullum in the last 13 months, England have frequently thrown convention out of the window in an effort to win not only matches but also hearts and minds.
Aggressive batting and daring declarations have been among the distinctive features in the reign of Stokes, who would not rule out getting even funkier in his approach if the weather intervenes.
“You never want to look too much into the weather but in the position we find ourselves in, we find we might have to,” Stokes said.
“We know we have to win this game to take it to the last game for us to have a chance of getting the urn back.
“Going into the last game 2-0 down, we knew we had to win that so I think that helped us a little bit.
“Maybe again with the weather that’s predicted, it might bring more out of us again knowing that we might have to push the game on even more than we normally do. We’ll just have to wait and see.”
The Women’s Ashes are running concurrently and while England are out of the running to beat Australia, Heather Knight described a series that has captured the public imagination and drawn record crowds as the “best ever”.
The momentum in the male equivalent has seesawed – not only from day to day but often from hour to hour – and Stokes acknowledged victory this week which would set up a decider would go a long way to determining how fondly this series is remembered.
“If we win this one then going into the last game at 2-2, it would be hard not to say this is the best men’s Ashes series in a long time, if not the best,” he said.
“Overall, take away Australia and England, the cricket that’s been played has been absolutely brilliant.
“Everyone who’s watched at the ground or at home on TV has just really enjoyed the cricket that’s been played.
“There have been some pretty special moments out on the cricket ground, some special individual performances as well. I guess that’s what you want from sport.”
England’s record wicket-taker James Anderson will return at his home ground and where he has an end named in his honour, as he replaces Ollie Robinson in the only change from Headingley.
He has took just three wickets at an average of 75 in the first two matches before missing out in the third Test, but Stokes has no concerns about the Lancastrian, arguing his value cannot be measured in wickets alone.
“When you’re quality performer like Jimmy has been for the last 10 years, he is going to be disappointed that he’s not contributed to the team like he normally does,” Stokes added.
“But I did say to him ‘even if you’re not taking wickets like you want to be doing, at the other end you see the pressure you’re putting on the opposition’.
“He holds an end up without that being his main obligation with the ball. You don’t get as many wickets as him without having the odd bad game here and there – there’s no issues whatsoever with Jimmy.”
Hope has struggled in Test matches averaging 26.71 in 32 Tests. In the first Test at the Ageas Stadium in Southampton last week, Hope had scores of 16 and 9, raising concerns about whether he might eventually be dropped from the team. However, at the pre-match press conference on Wednesday, Holder when asked if Hope runs the risk of being dropped because of poor form, jumped to the defence of his number-three batsman.
“Going into a Test series you want to give a player as much confidence as you possibly can. I don’t look at whether you want to drop and select somebody else. You’ve got a core group of guys which you give added confidence and boost to in order for them to go and perform,” Holder said.
“The great thing about this site is that we have been together now for a while. The nucleus of this squad has been the same and all I want to do is keep encouraging our guys. Shai is a quality player; we’ve seen that particularly the last time he came here in England, and his one-day form has been really good, so I have all confidence Shai will deliver. He just needs to get himself in, get himself going and he is going to go big for us.”
In 2017, Hope scored centuries in both innings (147 and 118*) at Headingly as the West Indies defeated England by five wickets.
Holder said his side does not feel pressure going into Thursday’s match because his players are focussed on the task at hand.
“There is no pressure for us, we don’t get caught up in the off-the-field noise and everyone talking,” he said.
“We are just here to play cricket and each individual has a role within the team and it’s more or less us having to focus on our individual roles to bring together a strong collective effort.”
Bairstow looked in fine touch as he hit an unbeaten 86 from 60 balls to lay the platform for an emphatic 95-run win over New Zealand in the second Vitality International T20 clash at Old Trafford on Friday.
The World Cup begins in India in just over a month’s time and, having played only four matches in the Hundred since the Ashes ended in July prior to this series, Bairstow is pleased to be back in action.
“I just wanted to play, to be quite honest with you,” said the 33-year-old. “I wanted to be back out playing white-ball cricket because I think that the natural rhythms of the games, whether it’s T20 or 50-over cricket, is something that, especially when you’re playing internationally, is something that’s very hard to replicate.
“You can play the Hundred, you can play for Yorkshire, but the different bowlers, the pressures, the crowds, the pitches – everything that comes with playing international cricket – is very difficult to replicate.
“So I was very keen to play these T20s leading into the ODIs and then, naturally, leading into the World Cup in a few weeks’ time.”
Bairstow combined in a thrilling 131-run partnership with Yorkshire team-mate Harry Brook from just 65 balls.
Brook, who was controversially omitted from England’s provisional World Cup squad, hit five sixes in a blistering 36-ball 67.
Debutant Gus Atkinson then took an impressive four for 20 as New Zealand slumped to 103 all out in reply.
They now head to Edgbaston for the third encounter of the four-match series on Sunday with a 2-0 lead after an equally-comfortable win in Durham on Wednesday.
The sides will also play four one-day internationals this month and Bairstow expects the Kiwis – coincidentally England’s first World Cup opponents in Ahmedabad on October 5 – to bite back.
“They’re a blooming good team, New Zealand,” Bairstow said. “They’ve been an exceptional team for a long period of time and we know how dangerous they can be.
“We can’t take for granted how good these two performances have been. We’ve also got to look at how good they actually are as well, but we’ve played some exceptional cricket these last two games.
“And if we can keep doing that – and keep doing that over a longer period of time – then that can only be a good thing.
“It builds confidence, it builds an environment within the dressing room that enhances people’s performances when they go out in the middle.
“They feel like they can hit the ball for six, they feel like they can take a wicket each ball. They feel confident enough to take a risk.”
New Zealand seamer Adam Milne accepts his team need to pick themselves up for the games to come.
He said: “I think we’ll have to just regroup, but we like to keep things pretty calm in our changing room – not get too high, not too low.
“I think we’ll have a bit of a review of the game and just try and find those little bits of improvements in our games and hopefully come out at Edgbaston and throw some shots from our end.”
The West Indies, holders of the Wisden Trophy, are locked at 1-1 with the hosts who are trying to regain the trophy they relinquished when they went down to the West Indies in the Caribbean in early 2019.
This, Estwick believes, makes the occasion one of significant magnitude.
“Obviously this a big, big Test match not only for the people who are here in England, there are a lot of people tuned and we’ve got to be really up for it, Estwick said.
He believes the West Indies are more than capable of winning the series.
“The key thing is if you look at the first innings [of the first Test] we got early wickets. When we won in Southampton we got off to a decent start in the first innings with the bat so for me those are two key areas,” he said.
“If we can blunt that new ball and stop England from getting early wickets and also get early wickets ourselves, that could put us in a position to control the game and try and put them under some added pressure.”
Estwick said the coaching staff has been trying to get the players to be aware of the piece of history that can write if they win. West Indies last won a Test series in 1988 before any member of the present team was born.
“We’re constantly reminding them they have the chance to change something that hasn’t happened in 32 years,” he said.
“We played them over the last two or three years and we’ve won the odd Test matches. We’ve obviously won in the Caribbean – we want to go one step better here in England. We really want to win that Test match.
“We have to be up for it. Obviously England is going to be up for it because it’s a final – when you look at this game it is a final for both teams and whoever puts in a big performance also will win the game.”
West Indies last won a Test series in 1988 before any member of the present team was born.
The tourists showed some fight as the day drew to a close before being bowled out for 236, but England's turn with the bat was cut short due to bad light.
Sri Lanka got off to the worst possible start as England ripped through them 6-3 in the first seven overs, with Woakes (3-32) getting a double-wicket maiden, dismissing Nishan Madushka and Angelo Mathews.
Shoaib Bashir (3-56) kept up the pace after lunch, as Sri Lanka slumped to 113-7, but they soon found their footing.
Captain Dhananjaya de Silva dug deep, racing to 74 off 84 balls, while Milan Rathnayake added 72 before Bashir dismissed them both. Stand-in captain Ollie Pope then ran out Vishwa Fernando to end Sri Lanka's innings.
With the light already poor, Sri Lanka were forced to open the bowling with spin - Ben Duckett and Dan Lawrence moved to 22-0 before the umpires intervened, leaving 12 overs unbowled.
Data Debrief: Pope makes strong start
Pope is the 82nd man to captain England in Test cricket, and the 12th this century. Despite losing the coin toss, he could not have asked for a better start after taking over from the injured Ben Stokes.
For Sri Lanka, Rathnayake impressed on his debut after helping to drag Sri Lanka towards the 200 mark - his tally of 72 is the highest score ever made by a number nine on Test debut.
