Ronald Koeman has no intention of resting Lionel Messi and Frenkie de Jong ahead of next week's El Clasico, despite both players being one booking away from a suspension.

Barca will be looking to extend their 18-match unbeaten run in LaLiga when they welcome Real Valladolid to Camp Nou on Monday.

Messi and De Jong are both available for the game as the Catalan giants look to keep the pressure on leaders Atletico Madrid, who are four points better off ahead of Sunday's trip to Sevilla.

However, both players risk being banned for next Saturday's showdown with bitter rivals Real Madrid, having each been booked four times already this season.

But while the pair may be walking a disciplinary tightrope, Koeman is ready to risk star man Messi and central midfielder De Jong against Valladolid.

"We know that these two players are one card away, but it is not the time to rest players due to cards or freshness," he said at Sunday's pre-match news conference.

"We have ten games left. There is always the risk, but the best thing is to put the team out that I think can win the game."

Messi has been directly involved in 23 league goals in 2021 - 16 goals and seven assists - which is more than any other player in the top five European leagues. 

The Argentinian has had a direct hand in eight goals in his last four LaLiga games against Real Valladolid - four goals and four assists.

Those goal involvements have helped Barca to 13 wins in their previous 14 LaLiga games against Valladolid, with the only exception being a 1-0 defeat away from home in March 2014.

Sergio Gonzalez's side have won just one of their past 11 league games, but Koeman will not take Monday's opponents lightly.

"You have to be prepared, you can't think that it will be an easy game," he said. "We have to go in with a lot of energy and rhythm and be good with the ball.

"We have to get back to our level. It could be a game without problems, but you always have to work hard to win."

Gerard Pique returned to training this week after recovering from a knee problem, while Sergi Roberto is also closing in on a comeback after two months on the sidelines.

Koeman will make a late decision on whether the defensive duo are ready to play a part against Valladolid.

"They are training with the team lately. They have improved a lot," he said.

"These are decisions that will be made tomorrow after the last training session. We aren't going to take risks [with injuries], nor next week, because there are more games coming this season."

Sevilla head coach Julen Lopetegui was thrilled to see goalkeeper Yassine Bounou make history with his last-gasp goal against Real Valladolid in LaLiga.

Bounou scored an incredible 94th-minute equaliser to rescue a 1-1 draw for visiting Sevilla at Valladolid on Saturday.

Seeking a late leveller, Sevilla sent goalkeeper Bounou forward and the Morocco international smashed home the equaliser at the death following a corner.

Bounou became the first goalkeeper in Sevilla's history to score in LaLiga – Andres Palop netted for the club in the UEFA Cup in 2007 – while the previous shot-stopper in the Spanish top flight to score from a non-penalty situation in the 21st century was Deportivo La Coruna's Dani Aranzubia in 2011.

Lopetegui – a former goalkeeper for Real Madrid, Barcelona, Spain and Rayo Vallecano – praised the 29-year-old Bounou.

"I've never scored a goal, not even in training but obviously it's a great goal from our goalkeeper today," Lopetegui told reporters post-match.

"It's not normal but it gave us some joy at the end of the game when we could have got three points, but it looked like we were going to come away empty handed.

"I just managed to speak to Bono after the game and obviously congratulate him. I am sure there were a few jokes in the dressing room surrounding Andres Palop's goal [for Sevilla] because everyone remembers that and it was obviously a very, very important goal in the Europa League and today was a very important goal for us as it came in the final minutes of the game and it helped us rescue a point.

"We're very satisfied that we didn't give up and we kept fighting to try and get back in the game. We kept on pushing and that is one of the characteristics of our team, and we got our reward." 

Bounou added: "The goal fell to me and I am grateful… the feeling is difficult to describe because I didn't know how to celebrate it.

"It's very strange, but hey, the team-mates were happy because we deserved more."

Real Madrid boss Zinedine Zidane will not risk playing Karim Benzema against Atalanta if the striker is not fully fit.

Benzema missed Madrid's narrow 1-0 win over Real Valladolid in LaLiga on Saturday due to an unspecified knock.

Los Blancos struggled in the absence of their leading scorer as they managed just two shots on target at Estadio Jose Zorrilla.

However, Zidane will only name Benzema in his travelling party for Wednesday's Champions League last-16 first leg with Atalanta if he can first prove his fitness.

"We will see tomorrow," Zidane said. "I can't tell you right now. We are not going to risk him. If he's not ready, he won't be used."

Benzema was one of nine first-team players missing for Madrid against Valladolid, with the likes of Sergio Ramos, Dani Carvajal and Eden Hazard also nursing injuries.

But Zidane is unsure how many – if any – of his walking wounded have any chance of returning for the trip to Bergamo.

"The situation is what it is," he said. "There are many casualties. I hope to recover players, but I don't know if that will be next week.

"At the moment there are many casualties, but the players we have are committed and we have to continue with them. It's complicated, but you have to continue."

Despite the growing list of injuries, Madrid beat Valladolid thanks to Casemiro's second-half header to make it four LaLiga wins in a row, the last three of those victories without conceding.

Madrid are now within three points of leaders Atletico Madrid, who have dropped points in three of their last four matches but still have a game in hand to play.

Zidane's men travel to the Wanda Metropolitano on March 7 and the Frenchman wants his side to keep putting points on the board before then.

"There is no need to send a message. It is an important victory. It is the fourth victory and we have to continue our business," he said.

"You have to be happy with the game, with the result and with the clean sheet.

"We are in a good moment and have found some consistency with our results. The whole team defends very well. With the ball we can do things. 

"We arrived well and we have to rest well. We are going to prepare for the game on Wednesday in the best possible way."

Casemiro had missed two glorious headed chances before finding the back of the net with his third, which came via a superb Toni Kroos delivery from deep.

Kroos created four big opportunities in total and had both the most touches (83) and completed more passes (73) than any other player on the field.

Match-winner Casemiro was keen to share the plaudits with his team-mate, who now has five assists in his last five appearances.

"You have to be there to finish it off. But the credit goes to Toni, who always puts them well," he told Movistar. "I had three chances and I had to put away the third one.

"We still believe in the LaLiga title. All games are important. There are 42 points left. There are many points left and we believe in ourselves."

Casemiro's headed goal was his fourth of the LaLiga season - more than any other midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.

However, Madrid may well have been on the end of a shock defeat if not for Thibaut Courtois, the Belgium international making three big saves with the game still all square.

"We know that we are all important," Casemiro said. "Courtois with the stops - I'm not surprised, he always does that. 

"It's was a good goal for me to score. But we cannot speak of a single player today. This victory belongs to everyone."

Casemiro scored the only goal as injury-hit Real Madrid earned a 1-0 win at Real Valladolid to close the gap on LaLiga leaders Atletico Madrid to three points.

Atletico lost for just the second time this season in the league earlier on Saturday to open the door, and their city rivals took full advantage at Estadio Jose Zorrilla with a fourth win in a row, the last three of those secured without conceding.

Zinedine Zidane's side failed to register a single shot on target in the first half of a league game for the second time this season and required Thibaut Courtois to produce three big saves to keep them level.

But Madrid, who were without striker Karim Benzema and eight other first-team players, made the breakthrough thanks to Casemiro's 65th-minute header and saw the game out to up the pressure on Atleti, who have a game in hand to play.

Courtois made the first of his key saves inside seven minutes to keep out Fabian Orellana's poked effort and then Saidy Janko's follow-up shot as Valladolid, also denied a strong penalty shout for Casemiro's tackle on Kike Perez, made a bright start.

Casemiro powered a free header over the crossbar from the edge of the six-yard box from Madrid's only clear-cut legitimate opportunity of a lacklustre first half, though Mariano did correctly have two goals ruled out for offside.

Lucas Vazquez fired in Madrid's first on-target attempt six minutes into the second period - a simple stop for Jordi Masip to make in the Valladolid goal - after Casemiro had guided another header off target.

The visitors would fallen behind three minutes later if not for Courtois, who saved Orellana's volley and spared the blushes of team-mate Ferland Mendy in the process - the full-back having crossed the ball straight to the opposition player.

However, it proved a case of third time lucky for Casemiro as he headed Toni Kroos' superb set-piece back across goal and away from Masip to open the scoring for the reigning champions.

Valladolid had another penalty appeal rejected, this time for Nacho Fernandez's challenge on Shon Weissman, as Madrid held on for what could yet prove to be a crucial win in the title race.

Karim Benzema is out of Real Madrid's LaLiga clash at Real Valladolid and faces a race to be fit for Wednesday's Champions League tie against Atalanta.

Los Blancos' superstar striker did not train on Friday due to an unspecified knock and will not travel to the Jose Zorrilla, where Madrid are looking for a fourth straight top-flight win.

Head coach Zinedine Zidane was unsure if Benzema will return for the last-16 first-leg tie at Atalanta and said he will be re-evaluated later in the week.

"Karim won't be with us tomorrow, he has a little niggle, he has something and he won't be with us tomorrow," Zidane told a pre-match news conference. 

"We hope he's ready for Wednesday, from Sunday-Monday onwards we'll see how his problems evolve and how he's ready for Wednesday."

It is an unwelcome blow for Zidane, whose squad has already been ravaged by injury with Benzema joining Eden Hazard, Rodrygo, Federico Valverde, Alvaro Odriozola, Eder Militao, Marcelo, Dani Carvajal and captain Sergio Ramos on the sidelines.

"I think any injury we get is a hammer blow for us. But of course we know the player Karim is for us, how important he is," Zidane added. 

"But as I said before he is injured, he won't be available tomorrow and we have to do the best we can. 

"We have to think about players who are there and recover Karim as soon as possible. The same goes for all the other players."

Despite the injury woes, Madrid have performed well over the past week in LaLiga and Zidane was asked if he is confident the team can show a similarly positive attitude in Europe.

"It is what it is. Mentally we can't do anything about these injuries. We just want to avoid more injuries," he said. 

"I think everyone here is committed to doing that but so many factors go into this. It's true that lately a lot of players are injured and it doesn't help. 

"We have so many injuries, today we had another with Benzema but we just need to be patient and the players who are available we just need to give it our all, and just hope we are going to recover our players. 

"I know the players want to get back to training and on the pitch. I hope we get all our players back but it's true lately it's become a little complicated, yes."

Even in these extraordinary times, Barcelona letting Luis Suarez go to Atletico Madrid is starting to look like the oddest decision of the season.

Suarez's double over Eibar on Thursday secured a 2-1 victory for the league leaders, who are seven points clear at the top with a game in hand over champions Real Madrid in second.

The Uruguay star, who has netted six in his past six league games for Atleti, is joint-top of the division's scoring charts alongside former team-mate Lionel Messi.

It seems increasingly likely that Suarez, and certainly Atletico, will be at the top of the tree come the end of 2020-21.

With the majority of sides having now played half of their matches, the Stats Perform AI team have run the numbers to simulate how the rest of the LaLiga campaign will play out – and it's good news for Diego Simeone.

 

The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.

Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.

The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.

All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.

The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.

 

ATLETICO WIN AT A CANTER

Atletico have been given a 75.1 per cent chance of winning LaLiga, according to the model.

Simeone's men are predicted to finish on 86 points, nine clear of the rest of the field. They are given just a 17.8 per cent chance of coming second and dropping outside the top four is considered practically impossible.

Barcelona and reigning champions Real Madrid are predicted to end with 77 points apiece, with just a 12.4 per cent chance each of pipping Atleti to the title. Madrid have a 41 per cent chance of finishing second, slightly above Barca's 39.4, having beaten Ronald Koeman's side 3-1 in the first Clasico of the season at Camp Nou last October.

Those two are, at least, very likely to end up in a Champions League place. They are expected to be joined there by Sevilla, who have a 47.8 per cent chance of finishing fourth on 65 points, just three above Villarreal and six clear of Real Sociedad. The remaining European spot is predicted to be a close battle between Granada, Getafe and Real Betis, with Diego Martinez's men odds on to snatch it.

Valencia fans might be enduring a difficult time (again), and our sim has Los Che missing out on European football once more, if only by four points. That said, they still have a 3.6 per cent chance of a Europa League spot, which is better odds than those given to Supercopa de Espana winners Athletic Bilbao.

 

WOE FOR HUESCA

At the other end of a relatively tight table, in which just 11 points will separate seventh from 16th, it looks like Huesca are in for a tough run-in. They are given a 59.7 per cent chance of finishing bottom of the pile and just a 5.1 per cent shot at avoiding relegation, having won only once so far this term.

Osasuna are predicted to end up just four points above them, with the bottom three likely to be completed by Deportivo Alaves, although Elche will also be right in the mix. In fact, with those two tipped to finish level on 39 points, survival could come down to their head-to-head record, making their showdown on May 11 potentially decisive. Elche have the advantage there, having won the reverse game 2-0 away from home.

Real Valladolid are expected to have just enough to stay out of trouble, although they have scant room for manoeuvre, with our predictor giving them an equal 15.1 per cent chance of finishing 17th and 18th.

Eibar and Cadiz are looking likely to stay safe; indeed, Jose Luis Mendilibar's men, along with Celta Vigo and Athletic, are given a 0.1 per cent chance of gatecrashing the top four. They might well have boosted those odds this week were it not for that pesky Suarez.

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