Even in these extraordinary times, Barcelona letting Luis Suarez go to Atletico Madrid is starting to look like the oddest decision of the season.
Suarez's double over Eibar on Thursday secured a 2-1 victory for the league leaders, who are seven points clear at the top with a game in hand over champions Real Madrid in second.
The Uruguay star, who has netted six in his past six league games for Atleti, is joint-top of the division's scoring charts alongside former team-mate Lionel Messi.
It seems increasingly likely that Suarez, and certainly Atletico, will be at the top of the tree come the end of 2020-21.
With the majority of sides having now played half of their matches, the Stats Perform AI team have run the numbers to simulate how the rest of the LaLiga campaign will play out – and it's good news for Diego Simeone.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
ATLETICO WIN AT A CANTER
Atletico have been given a 75.1 per cent chance of winning LaLiga, according to the model.
Simeone's men are predicted to finish on 86 points, nine clear of the rest of the field. They are given just a 17.8 per cent chance of coming second and dropping outside the top four is considered practically impossible.
Barcelona and reigning champions Real Madrid are predicted to end with 77 points apiece, with just a 12.4 per cent chance each of pipping Atleti to the title. Madrid have a 41 per cent chance of finishing second, slightly above Barca's 39.4, having beaten Ronald Koeman's side 3-1 in the first Clasico of the season at Camp Nou last October.
Those two are, at least, very likely to end up in a Champions League place. They are expected to be joined there by Sevilla, who have a 47.8 per cent chance of finishing fourth on 65 points, just three above Villarreal and six clear of Real Sociedad. The remaining European spot is predicted to be a close battle between Granada, Getafe and Real Betis, with Diego Martinez's men odds on to snatch it.
Valencia fans might be enduring a difficult time (again), and our sim has Los Che missing out on European football once more, if only by four points. That said, they still have a 3.6 per cent chance of a Europa League spot, which is better odds than those given to Supercopa de Espana winners Athletic Bilbao.
WOE FOR HUESCA
At the other end of a relatively tight table, in which just 11 points will separate seventh from 16th, it looks like Huesca are in for a tough run-in. They are given a 59.7 per cent chance of finishing bottom of the pile and just a 5.1 per cent shot at avoiding relegation, having won only once so far this term.
Osasuna are predicted to end up just four points above them, with the bottom three likely to be completed by Deportivo Alaves, although Elche will also be right in the mix. In fact, with those two tipped to finish level on 39 points, survival could come down to their head-to-head record, making their showdown on May 11 potentially decisive. Elche have the advantage there, having won the reverse game 2-0 away from home.
Real Valladolid are expected to have just enough to stay out of trouble, although they have scant room for manoeuvre, with our predictor giving them an equal 15.1 per cent chance of finishing 17th and 18th.
Eibar and Cadiz are looking likely to stay safe; indeed, Jose Luis Mendilibar's men, along with Celta Vigo and Athletic, are given a 0.1 per cent chance of gatecrashing the top four. They might well have boosted those odds this week were it not for that pesky Suarez.
Club Brugge 1-1 Fiorentina (3-4 agg): Viola seal Europa Conference League final return
Lucas Beltran was Fiorentina's hero as his late penalty in a 1-1 draw with Club Brugge ensured they progressed to the Europa Conference League final.
Beltran held his nerve from the spot to score an 85th-minute equaliser, earning a draw on the night but a 4-3 aggregate victory.
Fiorentina won the first leg 3-2, but Hans Vanaken's 20th-minute opener levelled the tie, on Wednesday.
Christian Kouame hit the woodwork twice for Fiorentina, but the pressure finally told when Brandon Mechele caught M'Bala Nzola with a high boot.
Beltran made no mistake, with Fiorentina holding firm to seal their place in the final in Athens on May 29.
Fiorentina lost last season's final to West Ham, and the Serie A club will now face either Olympiacos or Aston Villa.
Data Debrief: Back-to-back finals for Viola
Fiorentina have reached a European final for the sixth time in their history, and the second time in a row, though they have only won one of their previous five attempts.
They have only achieved that feat once before, which was back in 1961 and 1962.
Rodgers promises Celtic's 'best version' in Old Firm clash
Brendan Rodgers has promised Celtic will be at their very best when they take on Rangers in the Old Firm derby on Saturday.
Rodgers’ side have a three-point advantage over their rivals and a superior goal difference going into the game, while a victory over Rangers would move them six points clear with just two games left to play.
Following the 3-3 draw in the Old Firm in April, Rangers stuttered with a draw and a defeat at the end of the first phase, while Celtic have won each of their last three matches to take control of the title race.
Going into the final league derby of the season, Rodgers is confident that his team are ready for the big test.
"When I look at the injuries and disruptions we've had this season, last weekend was about there in terms of availability, fitness and where the team is at," Rodgers told CelticTV.
"It's as good a place as we've been all season. When we will arrive into this weekend's game, this will be the best version of the team since I've been here."
Rodgers expects a raucous atmosphere at Celtic Park and highlighted how that helps the players in big matches.
He added: "The crowd in the Hearts game was brilliant for us. The emotion rolls down from the stands, and you see what it gives the players and how they respond to that.
"We will need the same at the weekend and I know we will get it. The supporters are liking what they see in the team. It should be a great occasion, and I’m really looking forward to it."
Leverkusen motivated by Roma loss in 2022-23
Bayer Leverkusen will use last campaign's Europa League loss against Roma as motivation to get the job done this time, so says Xabi Alonso.
Leverkusen were knocked out by Roma after a goalless draw in the second leg of the Europa League semis last season, losing the tie 1-0 on aggregate.
But a few things have changed since then with Alonso's side, who are now on an extraordinary 48-match unbeaten run this campaign, ending Bayern Munich's 11-year stranglehold on the Bundesliga title to secure their first trophy since 1993.
They are also a step closer to a treble, having beaten Roma 2-0 away in the first leg last week and reaching the DFB-Cup final against Kaiserslautern.
"We haven't forget (forgotten) last season, we felt it. We need to use this energy and hopeful we can celebrate at the end. We will put all of our focus on the full 90 minutes. We want to deserve our win and make the final in Dublin," Alonso told reporters.
The Spaniard, however, said Leverkusen will have to be on their toes despite their advantage as he believes Roma will continue to be dangerous opponents under manager Daniele De Rossi, who replaced Jose Mourinho in January.
"A second leg is always a dangerous situation no matter the result before," Alonso said.
"We are preparing to play well with good motivation and at our own game. We want to be aggressive, control and defend well as a team.
"We are expecting Roma to come with the hope of qualifying."
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