Even in these extraordinary times, Barcelona letting Luis Suarez go to Atletico Madrid is starting to look like the oddest decision of the season.
Suarez's double over Eibar on Thursday secured a 2-1 victory for the league leaders, who are seven points clear at the top with a game in hand over champions Real Madrid in second.
The Uruguay star, who has netted six in his past six league games for Atleti, is joint-top of the division's scoring charts alongside former team-mate Lionel Messi.
It seems increasingly likely that Suarez, and certainly Atletico, will be at the top of the tree come the end of 2020-21.
With the majority of sides having now played half of their matches, the Stats Perform AI team have run the numbers to simulate how the rest of the LaLiga campaign will play out – and it's good news for Diego Simeone.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
ATLETICO WIN AT A CANTER
Atletico have been given a 75.1 per cent chance of winning LaLiga, according to the model.
Simeone's men are predicted to finish on 86 points, nine clear of the rest of the field. They are given just a 17.8 per cent chance of coming second and dropping outside the top four is considered practically impossible.
Barcelona and reigning champions Real Madrid are predicted to end with 77 points apiece, with just a 12.4 per cent chance each of pipping Atleti to the title. Madrid have a 41 per cent chance of finishing second, slightly above Barca's 39.4, having beaten Ronald Koeman's side 3-1 in the first Clasico of the season at Camp Nou last October.
Those two are, at least, very likely to end up in a Champions League place. They are expected to be joined there by Sevilla, who have a 47.8 per cent chance of finishing fourth on 65 points, just three above Villarreal and six clear of Real Sociedad. The remaining European spot is predicted to be a close battle between Granada, Getafe and Real Betis, with Diego Martinez's men odds on to snatch it.
Valencia fans might be enduring a difficult time (again), and our sim has Los Che missing out on European football once more, if only by four points. That said, they still have a 3.6 per cent chance of a Europa League spot, which is better odds than those given to Supercopa de Espana winners Athletic Bilbao.
WOE FOR HUESCA
At the other end of a relatively tight table, in which just 11 points will separate seventh from 16th, it looks like Huesca are in for a tough run-in. They are given a 59.7 per cent chance of finishing bottom of the pile and just a 5.1 per cent shot at avoiding relegation, having won only once so far this term.
Osasuna are predicted to end up just four points above them, with the bottom three likely to be completed by Deportivo Alaves, although Elche will also be right in the mix. In fact, with those two tipped to finish level on 39 points, survival could come down to their head-to-head record, making their showdown on May 11 potentially decisive. Elche have the advantage there, having won the reverse game 2-0 away from home.
Real Valladolid are expected to have just enough to stay out of trouble, although they have scant room for manoeuvre, with our predictor giving them an equal 15.1 per cent chance of finishing 17th and 18th.
Eibar and Cadiz are looking likely to stay safe; indeed, Jose Luis Mendilibar's men, along with Celta Vigo and Athletic, are given a 0.1 per cent chance of gatecrashing the top four. They might well have boosted those odds this week were it not for that pesky Suarez.
Hurtig the hero after late goal sends Arsenal into Champions League quarters
Lina Hurtig's 89th minute winner ensured Arsenal progressed to the quarter-finals of the Women's Champions League after edging Juventus 1-0 on Thursday.
After being frustrated for large parts of the encounter, Hurtig bundled home from close range after Martina Lenzini's poor clearance to book the Gunners' place in the last eight.
Despite Arsenal dominating the early exchanges, it was Juventus who had the first sight of goal, though Eva Schatzer's effort was easy for Daphne van Domselaar to gather.
In a first half that saw just two shots on target, both coming from the visitors, Renee Slegers' substitutes proved to be the difference for Arsenal.
Slegers introduced Beth Mead, Stina Blackstenius and Hurtig late on, with the latter somehow putting Kim Little's cross over the bar from five yards out.
However, the Swede would atone for her earlier error, combining with fellow substitute Blackstenius to net against her former club and send them out of the competition with two group games remaining.
Meanwhile, in Group D, Barcelona edged closer to the quarter-finals of the competition with a convincing 4-1 victory over St. Polten at the Generali Arena.
The reigning champions are still three points behind Manchester City following their 2-1 win over Hammarby, and know a win against the Swedes next month will see them progress.
Kika Nazareth opened the scoring in the 20th minute after capitalising on a mistake by Kamila Dubcova, notching her second nine minutes later from close range.
Barca found themselves three goals up at the break when Vicky Lopez netted her first goal in the competition to put the result beyond doubt.
There was also a landmark moment for Alexia Putellas, who netted her 200th goal for the club with a well-taken effort into the far corner.
Valentina Madl took some of the shine off an otherwise impressive display from the visitors, who have now taken their tally to 20 goals from their four matches in the competition.
Guardiola agrees two-year contract extension with Man City
Pep Guardiola will be Manchester City manager for at least two more seasons after 2024-25, after he signed a two-year contract extension on Thursday.
The 53-year-old was coming to the end of his City deal, which was due to expire at the end of the current campaign, but he has opted to remain at the Etihad Stadium.
The deal itself will take Guardiola's tenure at the club to over a decade, making him City's longest-serving manager since Les McDowall in 1963.
There had been suggestions that he may leave at the end of the season following the announcement that director of football Txiki Begiristain was on his way out.
Guardiola was strongly linked with the England job after Gareth Southgate resigned in the wake of their Euro 2024 final defeat, but the Football Association appointed Thomas Tuchel last month.
“Manchester City means so much to me," Guardiola said. “This is my ninth season here; we have experienced so many amazing times together. I have a really special feeling for this football club.
“That is why I am so happy to be staying for another two more seasons.
“Thank you to everyone for continuing to trust and support me – The Owner, The Chairman Khaldoon, Ferran, Txiki, the players and, of course, the fans… everyone connected to Manchester City. It has always been an honour, a pleasure and a privilege to be here.
“I have said this many times before, but I have everything a manager could ever wish for, and I appreciate that so much.
“Hopefully, now we can add more trophies to the ones we have already won. That will be my focus.”
Having been appointed in 2016, Guardiola is by some distance Manchester City's most successful manager of all time, having won 18 major trophies during his time at the club.
That list includes their first-ever Champions League triumph in 2023 and six Premier League titles, including an unprecedented four on the spin.
He also boasts a 72.04% win percentage across all competitions, which is unsurprisingly the highest of any full-time City manager in history.
Shaw at the double as Man City progress in Champions League
Khadija Shaw scored twice as Manchester City beat Hammarby 2-1 to seal their place in the Women's Champions League quarter-finals.
Gareth Taylor's team entered Thursday's game with a perfect record in Group D, and their fourth win in as many European matches ensured they finished in the top two.
Shaw—the leading scorer in the Women's Super League this season with eight goals—put them ahead in the 31st minute, driving into the area after taking in Yui Hasegawa's pass before seeing her shot deflect into the top corner.
Shaw was booked for celebrating in front of the home fans despite appearing to have objects thrown at her from the stands, and Hammarby should have levelled when Julia Blakstad fired wide 10 minutes later.
The hosts did draw level three minutes into the second half as Ellen Wangerheim tapped home while City's Laura Blindkilde Brown was down appealing for a free-kick.
That parity was short-lived, though, as Shaw blasted into the top corner from 25 yards out, taking her overall tally for this season to 12 goals in all competitions.
In Group C, meanwhile, Bayern Munich lost their perfect record as they played out a 1-1 draw with Valerenga, boosting Arsenal's hopes of topping the pile.
Jovana Damnjanovic came off the bench to put Bayern ahead 15 minutes from time in Norway, but Elise Thorsnes headed home following an 88th-minute corner to snatch a point for the hosts.
Arsenal could now move within a point of Bayern when they face Juventus in Group C's other match later on Thursday.
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