Even in these extraordinary times, Barcelona letting Luis Suarez go to Atletico Madrid is starting to look like the oddest decision of the season.
Suarez's double over Eibar on Thursday secured a 2-1 victory for the league leaders, who are seven points clear at the top with a game in hand over champions Real Madrid in second.
The Uruguay star, who has netted six in his past six league games for Atleti, is joint-top of the division's scoring charts alongside former team-mate Lionel Messi.
It seems increasingly likely that Suarez, and certainly Atletico, will be at the top of the tree come the end of 2020-21.
With the majority of sides having now played half of their matches, the Stats Perform AI team have run the numbers to simulate how the rest of the LaLiga campaign will play out – and it's good news for Diego Simeone.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
ATLETICO WIN AT A CANTER
Atletico have been given a 75.1 per cent chance of winning LaLiga, according to the model.
Simeone's men are predicted to finish on 86 points, nine clear of the rest of the field. They are given just a 17.8 per cent chance of coming second and dropping outside the top four is considered practically impossible.
Barcelona and reigning champions Real Madrid are predicted to end with 77 points apiece, with just a 12.4 per cent chance each of pipping Atleti to the title. Madrid have a 41 per cent chance of finishing second, slightly above Barca's 39.4, having beaten Ronald Koeman's side 3-1 in the first Clasico of the season at Camp Nou last October.
Those two are, at least, very likely to end up in a Champions League place. They are expected to be joined there by Sevilla, who have a 47.8 per cent chance of finishing fourth on 65 points, just three above Villarreal and six clear of Real Sociedad. The remaining European spot is predicted to be a close battle between Granada, Getafe and Real Betis, with Diego Martinez's men odds on to snatch it.
Valencia fans might be enduring a difficult time (again), and our sim has Los Che missing out on European football once more, if only by four points. That said, they still have a 3.6 per cent chance of a Europa League spot, which is better odds than those given to Supercopa de Espana winners Athletic Bilbao.
WOE FOR HUESCA
At the other end of a relatively tight table, in which just 11 points will separate seventh from 16th, it looks like Huesca are in for a tough run-in. They are given a 59.7 per cent chance of finishing bottom of the pile and just a 5.1 per cent shot at avoiding relegation, having won only once so far this term.
Osasuna are predicted to end up just four points above them, with the bottom three likely to be completed by Deportivo Alaves, although Elche will also be right in the mix. In fact, with those two tipped to finish level on 39 points, survival could come down to their head-to-head record, making their showdown on May 11 potentially decisive. Elche have the advantage there, having won the reverse game 2-0 away from home.
Real Valladolid are expected to have just enough to stay out of trouble, although they have scant room for manoeuvre, with our predictor giving them an equal 15.1 per cent chance of finishing 17th and 18th.
Eibar and Cadiz are looking likely to stay safe; indeed, Jose Luis Mendilibar's men, along with Celta Vigo and Athletic, are given a 0.1 per cent chance of gatecrashing the top four. They might well have boosted those odds this week were it not for that pesky Suarez.
Guardiola confident Man City can avoid fourth straight loss
Pep Guardiola is facing the prospect of losing four consecutive matches for the first time in his career but is confident Manchester City do not need extra reassurance.
All three of City's recent losses have come in different competitions, first falling to Tottenham in the EFL Cup round of 16 before following it up with defeats to Bournemouth in the Premier League and Sporting CP in the Champions League.
It is the first time the Citizens have been on such a run since doing so between May and August 2021, while in the same season, it is the first time since April 2018.
In the Premier League, Guardiola's men were on a 32-match unbeaten run before their defeat to Bournemouth, and they have only lost two consecutive top-flight matches three times under the Spaniard before.
The Spaniard has been vocal about his team's recent injury struggles, and will once again be without Jack Grealish, despite his recent England call-up, John Stones and Ruben Dias for the trip to Brighton on Saturday.
Bernardo Silva said the team were in a "dark place" after their game at Sporting on Tuesday, but Guardiola does not believe he needs to provide any extra motivation to help get his players back to winning ways.
"I don't think [the players need extra reassurance]. Of course, we are not used to losing three games in three different competitions, but it is football, and it has happened," Guardiola said.
"We know the reason why we struggle, but we are looking forward to this game and after the international break, and after that a few players will be back and recovered. All the little problems we have with players will be solved. I hope.
"There always is a first time [to lose four straight]. Hopefully, it is not the case.
"Twenty minutes against Fulham we were not good, against Bournemouth we were not good, but the rest of the games we were good. We are good. We will see what happens."
Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw's record-breaking hat-trick powers Manchester City to 4-0 victory Over Tottenham Hotspur Women
Reggae Girl Khadija "Bunny" Shaw delivered a historic performance on Friday, scoring a hat-trick that led Manchester City Women to a dominant 4-0 victory over Tottenham Hotspur Women in the Barclays Women's Super League (WSL). Shaw's incredible feat helped City extend their lead at the top of the table, reaching 19 points, four clear of Chelsea, who have played two games fewer.
Shaw, who has now scored seven goals in the league this season, wasted no time asserting her dominance, scoring just moments after kick-off. Bursting through on goal, she slotted the ball into the bottom corner, giving City an immediate 1-0 lead. In the 15th minute, Shaw struck again, towering over defenders to head home a looping cross from Lauren Hemp. Tottenham’s goalkeeper and fellow Jamaican, Rebecca Spencer, got a hand to it, but Shaw's powerful header proved unstoppable.
City continued to apply pressure, and in the 66th minute, Jill Roord added to the scoreline. After evading a challenge, Hemp found Roord in the box, who shifted the ball onto her left foot and fired it into the roof of the net, making it 3-0. Just a minute later, Shaw completed her hat-trick. Hemp, instrumental throughout, drove down the byline and delivered a precise cross into the box, where Shaw was perfectly positioned to knock it home.
Shaw's hat-trick set new records in the WSL. She became the first player to record three hat-tricks against the same team and broke her teammate Vivianne Miedema’s record with her sixth career hat-trick in the league.
Facing her fellow Reggae Girlz teammates Drew Spence and Rebecca Spencer, Shaw showed why she is one of the most prolific strikers in the league, continuing to propel Manchester City to the top of the WSL standings with her record-breaking performance.
Arsenal 5-0 Brighton: Five-star hosts run riot in statement win
Arsenal got back to winning ways in the Women's Super League, brushing aside high-flying Brighton with an emphatic 5-0 victory at the Emirates Stadium.
Three goals in 12 first-half minutes had put the Gunners out of sight to ensure Renee Slegers continued her unbeaten start as interim boss.
Beth Mead returned to the starting line-up and took just 13 minutes to get her name on the scoresheet, cutting inside from the right to bend a lovely shot into the far-bottom corner.
Brighton were picked apart down their left again shortly after, with Kim Little fizzing a dangerous low cross into the six-yard box, and Caitlin Foord was on hand to turn it in from close range.
Three minutes later, Frida Maanum got a stunning third, whipping a delightful finish into the top-right corner from the edge of the box, and Foord should have got their fourth on the stroke of half-time but fired against the post while off-balance.
Substitute Lina Hurting then rose high in the 76th minute to flick on a corner which neither Sophie Baggaley nor Guro Bergsvand could keep out despite their best efforts.
Stina Blackstenius was dragged down in the penalty area in stoppage time, and Alessia Russo confidently stepped up to bury the resulting spot-kick to send Arsenal fourth in the table.
Data Debrief: Off the mark at home
Slegers looks to have settled into life as Arsenal's interim boss seamlessly, and Arsenal avoided a slip-up against a tricky opponent to register their first home win of the season.
They have now won all 13 of their WSL meetings with Brighton by an aggregate score of 48-2, while it is the fifth clean sheet Arsenal have kept against them at home.
Mead also improved on her already impressive record against Brighton - against no side does she have more combined goals and assists than the Seagulls (13 - eight goals, five assists).
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