Even in these extraordinary times, Barcelona letting Luis Suarez go to Atletico Madrid is starting to look like the oddest decision of the season.
Suarez's double over Eibar on Thursday secured a 2-1 victory for the league leaders, who are seven points clear at the top with a game in hand over champions Real Madrid in second.
The Uruguay star, who has netted six in his past six league games for Atleti, is joint-top of the division's scoring charts alongside former team-mate Lionel Messi.
It seems increasingly likely that Suarez, and certainly Atletico, will be at the top of the tree come the end of 2020-21.
With the majority of sides having now played half of their matches, the Stats Perform AI team have run the numbers to simulate how the rest of the LaLiga campaign will play out – and it's good news for Diego Simeone.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
ATLETICO WIN AT A CANTER
Atletico have been given a 75.1 per cent chance of winning LaLiga, according to the model.
Simeone's men are predicted to finish on 86 points, nine clear of the rest of the field. They are given just a 17.8 per cent chance of coming second and dropping outside the top four is considered practically impossible.
Barcelona and reigning champions Real Madrid are predicted to end with 77 points apiece, with just a 12.4 per cent chance each of pipping Atleti to the title. Madrid have a 41 per cent chance of finishing second, slightly above Barca's 39.4, having beaten Ronald Koeman's side 3-1 in the first Clasico of the season at Camp Nou last October.
Those two are, at least, very likely to end up in a Champions League place. They are expected to be joined there by Sevilla, who have a 47.8 per cent chance of finishing fourth on 65 points, just three above Villarreal and six clear of Real Sociedad. The remaining European spot is predicted to be a close battle between Granada, Getafe and Real Betis, with Diego Martinez's men odds on to snatch it.
Valencia fans might be enduring a difficult time (again), and our sim has Los Che missing out on European football once more, if only by four points. That said, they still have a 3.6 per cent chance of a Europa League spot, which is better odds than those given to Supercopa de Espana winners Athletic Bilbao.
WOE FOR HUESCA
At the other end of a relatively tight table, in which just 11 points will separate seventh from 16th, it looks like Huesca are in for a tough run-in. They are given a 59.7 per cent chance of finishing bottom of the pile and just a 5.1 per cent shot at avoiding relegation, having won only once so far this term.
Osasuna are predicted to end up just four points above them, with the bottom three likely to be completed by Deportivo Alaves, although Elche will also be right in the mix. In fact, with those two tipped to finish level on 39 points, survival could come down to their head-to-head record, making their showdown on May 11 potentially decisive. Elche have the advantage there, having won the reverse game 2-0 away from home.
Real Valladolid are expected to have just enough to stay out of trouble, although they have scant room for manoeuvre, with our predictor giving them an equal 15.1 per cent chance of finishing 17th and 18th.
Eibar and Cadiz are looking likely to stay safe; indeed, Jose Luis Mendilibar's men, along with Celta Vigo and Athletic, are given a 0.1 per cent chance of gatecrashing the top four. They might well have boosted those odds this week were it not for that pesky Suarez.
Premier League managers under pressure: What does the data say about Ten Hag, Martin and O'Neil?
The second international break of the campaign is upon us, and in the Premier League, that usually means one thing.
Sacking season may be drawing closer. Seven games into 2024-25, some managers might already have reason to worry.
While Everton's Sean Dyche and Leicester City's Steve Cooper are among those to have eased the pressure with crucial victories in recent weeks, and Oliver Glasner will likely get more time at Crystal Palace, three other bosses are under scrutiny already.
Manchester United's worst start to any Premier League season after seven games has seen Erik ten Hag come in for heavy criticism, while Wolves and Southampton are yet to record a single victory, meaning Gary O'Neil and Russell Martin could soon come under fire.
But what does the data say about the shortcomings of those sides, and what might lie ahead for each of them? Let's find out.
Erik ten Hag (Man Utd)
A goalless draw at Aston Villa on Sunday may have stopped the rot for United, but the Red Devils enter the October international break mired in 14th, with just eight points.
They last won fewer points through seven matches of any season in 1989-90, when Alex Ferguson's men finished 13th in the old First Division.
Ten Hag admitted after Sunday's game that United's start was not good enough, though he did hail their organisation and put their struggles down to shortcomings in the final third.
The data certainly supports the idea their main issues are in attack, though the idea Ten Hag has fixed things at the back is seemingly wide of the mark.
Last season, United were continually criticised for giving up opportunities, with only Luton Town (79.77), Sheffield United (77.49), West Ham (72.15) and Burnley (71.92) permitting a higher expected goals against (xGA) figure than their 70.08. Three of those teams were, of course, relegated.
Only six teams have given up better chances than United this term, though a huge 4.59 of their total 11.54 xGA was conceded in one game – the 3-0 home defeat to Spurs on matchday six. With eight goals conceded, Ten Hag's men may have been fortunate to come up against some wasteful opponents.
At the other end, United have netted just five times – only in 1972-73 (four) have they scored fewer through their first seven matches of a top-flight season.
Their current run of three league games without a goal, meanwhile, has equalled their worst streak in the competition under Ten Hag (runs of three in both December 2023 and April 2023).
United's five goals have come from 11.11 xG, making them the league's highest underperformers, scoring 6.11 goals fewer than expected given their quality of chances created. Their shot conversion rate of 5.62%, meanwhile, is worse than all but Southampton (5.26%) and Palace (5.43%), who are both winless.
While Ten Hag's transitional style of play has been blamed for United's defensive issues, what can he do to improve their fortunes in attack?
To an extent, he has been let down by individuals underperforming. Captain Bruno Fernandes, whose 54 Premier League goals since arriving in January 2020 are more than any other Red Devils team-mate, has failed to score from chances worth 1.9 xG this term – the highest figure accumulated by any player yet to net in the Premier League.
Alejandro Garnacho (one goal from 2.38 xG) and Joshua Zirkzee (one goal from 2.44 xG) have also underperformed, though it should be acknowledged that an injury to Rasmus Hojlund – who scored 16 times in all competitions last season – has not helped.
Ultimately, though, Ten Hag can have few complaints about United's predicament. According to Opta's expected points model, the Red Devils could only expect to be 10th in the table, just 2.4 points better off than they are in reality.
If United stick with the Dutchman, he may need a run of results immediately after the international break, ahead of a festive fixture list featuring trips to Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool.
Brentford and West Ham are their next two league opponents, before Chelsea visit Old Trafford on November 3. A Europa League clash with Fenerbahce – and former United boss Jose Mourinho – will bring more intrigue on October 24.
The Opta supercomputer shows little faith in Ten Hag's ability to turn things around. United were assigned an 18.8% chance of a top-four finish, which has now dropped to just 2.5%.
Russell Martin (Southampton)
Promoted as play-off victors following their victory over Leeds United at Wembley in May, Southampton were expected by many to struggle on their return to the top flight.
But a return of just one point from seven matches will still be viewed as disappointing, particularly given they have already welcomed the likes of Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest to St Mary's.
Across this season and the 2022-23 campaign, Saints are now winless in 20 Premier League matches, equalling their longest such streak in the top flight (also 20 between August and December 1969).
Supporters have, quite simply, grown weary of losing matches. And while Martin's progressive, possession-based style might be easy on the eye, results are king when battling to remain in the Premier League, and patience is a virtue.
The chief criticism that Vincent Kompany received during Burnley's relegation campaign in 2023-24 was one of naivety, and it has not taken long for Martin's Saints to get similar treatment.
Their average possession share of 57.42% is enough to rank them fifth in the league, behind only Manchester City (63.47%), Tottenham (62.44%), Liverpool (60.25%) and Brighton (58.5%).
However, it has too often been a case of possession without punch, with Southampton's four goals scored being the fewest in the division. Their xG underperformance of -4.34, meanwhile, is the second-worst in the league, behind United's.
Missing chances has not been Southampton's only issue, with their 165 touches in the opposition box being the sixth-fewest in the league, despite their 5,117 total touches being the fourth-most.
Another major criticism of Martin's side, who look to build from the back at every opportunity, relates to their tendency to put themselves in trouble. They have made the most errors leading to goals (six) and shots (10) in the league this season.
Southampton's opponents, meanwhile, have forced turnovers through pressures in the final third on 81 occasions. Only Brentford, Chelsea (both 91) and United (82) have given up more.
The chances of Martin ditching his masterplan appear slim, but greater pragmatism and flexibility may be required if Southampton are to give themselves a chance of survival.
Martin's achievement in getting Southampton back to the Premier League – and the manner in which he did it – will likely mean he gets more time. But their next game, at home to fellow promoted side Leicester on October 19, is a big one, while they also face fellow strugglers Everton and Wolves before mid-November.
In the Opta supercomputer's season predictions, Southampton are now relegated in a huge 90.8% of scenarios, finishing bottom in 59.1%. No other team has more than a 14.8% chance of propping up the table.
Gary O'Neil (Wolves)
Perhaps one of the biggest surprises of the season to date is Wolves' position at the foot of the pile, after they threatened a European push in O'Neil's first campaign at the helm.
An incredibly difficult fixture list has played its part, with Wolves facing five of last season's top seven – Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle United, Aston Villa and Liverpool – in the first seven matchweeks, and Manchester City are their next assignment after the hiatus.
However, Wolves are a side that has developed a habit of losing games, only managing one victory – against since-relegated Luton – in 17 league games since March 9 (three draws, 13 defeats).
Their tally of 21 goals conceded, meanwhile, is six more than any other side in the division (Southampton are next with 15).
The decision to sell captain Max Kilman to West Ham without investing any of the £40million proceeds on a new centre-back looked ill-advised in pre-season, and downright neglectful when Colombia international Yerson Mosquera suffered what is likely to be a season-ending knee injury in a 3-1 loss at Villa.
Wolves have arguably been unfortunate at times, with their xGA figure of 14 being lower than those of Ipswich (15.7), Leicester (14.91) and Southampton (14.05). August's 6-2 defeat to Chelsea was a particularly freakish result, with Wolves winning the xG battle 1.96-1.68.
But a failure to do the simple things has repeatedly cost them. A series of poor goals conceded from set-pieces led to dead-ball coach Jack Wilson being sacked just a few months on from his arrival, and the pressure is now on O'Neil to plug the gaps.
A lack of defensive options could hinder him, though. Wolves have just three fit centre-backs in Craig Dawson, Santiago Bueno and Toti Gomes. The club chose to spend a reported £21million on midfielder Andre – a supremely talented but arguably unnecessary buy – rather than a new defensive lynchpin on transfer deadline day.
Fixtures against Man City and Brighton mean things could get worse before they get better, before a crucial run of eight games against Palace, Southampton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Everton, West Ham, Ipswich and Leicester.
Expect O'Neil's future to be decided by Christmas, one way or another. The Opta supercomputer now gives Wolves a 51.9% chance of being relegated, up from 20.9% in pre-season.
The good news for Wolves fans? The last time they started a top-flight campaign without a win in seven games, in 2003-04, they got up and running at the eighth attempt, beating Man City 1-0.
'I'd like to return to Barca' - Iniesta confirms plans to go into coaching
Andres Iniesta says he is turning his attention to coaching and would like to return to Barcelona in the future after announcing his retirement.
The 40-year-old most recently played for UAE Pro League club Emirates but chose not to extend his contract to 2025.
Iniesta made 674 appearances for Barcelona in all competitions, the fourth-most in the history of the club, before leaving to join Vissel Kobe in 2018.
The former Spain midfielder initially joined the club aged 12, making his senior debut in 2002, and going on to enjoy a trophy-laden career with the Spanish giants, including winning nine LaLiga titles and four Champions Leagues.
Iniesta went unbeaten for 55 games for Barcelona in LaLiga between September 2010 and April 2012 (W47 D8), the longest run of any player in the history of the competition.
He was also an integral part of Barcelona's two treble-winning seasons in 2009 and 2015, with the club hosting his retirement event on Tuesday to mark the end of his career.
During the event, Iniesta revealed that he had already started making plans for his career off the pitch.
"I already starting the coaching course," Iniesta said. "I want to train myself for this next stage.
"Those of you who know me know that I am quite stubborn in that sense, to do a great job. It won't be behind the ball but in another place.
"I'd like to return to Barca at some point. Not just to say it, but because those who had so much influence, in one way or another, have to be there.
"When I can do what I did as a player in another role at the club, I'd be delighted."
Eidevall targeting 'full-throttle' approach against Bayern in the Champions League
Jonas Eidevall says Arsenal are going to take a "full throttle" approach as they look to begin the Champions League on a high against Bayern Munich.
Arsenal survived a scare to qualify for the group stage of the competition, coming from behind after a first-leg loss to Hacken to win 4-1 on aggregate.
Having missed out on qualification last year, the Gunners make a return to the Champions League in a group that also includes Juventus and Norwegian side Valerenga.
Arsenal did meet Bayern the last time they played in the tournament, with Eidevall's side turning around a deficit to progress to the semi-finals with a 2-1 victory.
The Swede is relishing the test ahead of them on Wednesday and plans to push his team just as hard in the Champions League as he does in the Women's Super League.
"For me, the Champions League is very special," Eidevall said when asked where the European competition ranks in his priorities.
"We are in four competitions, but the Champions League and the league will always be very special to me and to the team.
"Right now, we are in a situation where we need to go full-throttle in both of them."
In the WSL, the Gunners are unbeaten, though they have won just one of their three matches so far, and were held to a frustrating 0-0 draw against Everton last time out.
Arsenal had 21 shots in that game, but only managed five on target, as they accumulated 0.74 expected goals, also hitting the post.
They have scored just three goals in the league this season and will come up against a free-flowing Bayern, who have scored 18 times in their opening five Frauen-Bundesliga matches.
While Eidevall was frustrated by their lack of a clinical edge against the Toffees, he hopes they can continue their staunch defensive play.
"[Looking at the defence] is the positive way to look at it," added Eidevall. "We are putting such high standards on ourselves, and we are so demanding on ourselves.
"When something is not working that becomes the focus, but defensively against Everton we played a very solid game, we were pressing really well.
"[Bayern] are really strong in counter-attacking. They move with a lot of paces and that part you have to look out for. They are looking really strong on their set-pieces so far this season.
"They are well-organised; they are a good team, but so are we. While they have strengths, they also have weaknesses, and we need to exploit them."
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