Even in these extraordinary times, Barcelona letting Luis Suarez go to Atletico Madrid is starting to look like the oddest decision of the season.
Suarez's double over Eibar on Thursday secured a 2-1 victory for the league leaders, who are seven points clear at the top with a game in hand over champions Real Madrid in second.
The Uruguay star, who has netted six in his past six league games for Atleti, is joint-top of the division's scoring charts alongside former team-mate Lionel Messi.
It seems increasingly likely that Suarez, and certainly Atletico, will be at the top of the tree come the end of 2020-21.
With the majority of sides having now played half of their matches, the Stats Perform AI team have run the numbers to simulate how the rest of the LaLiga campaign will play out – and it's good news for Diego Simeone.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
ATLETICO WIN AT A CANTER
Atletico have been given a 75.1 per cent chance of winning LaLiga, according to the model.
Simeone's men are predicted to finish on 86 points, nine clear of the rest of the field. They are given just a 17.8 per cent chance of coming second and dropping outside the top four is considered practically impossible.
Barcelona and reigning champions Real Madrid are predicted to end with 77 points apiece, with just a 12.4 per cent chance each of pipping Atleti to the title. Madrid have a 41 per cent chance of finishing second, slightly above Barca's 39.4, having beaten Ronald Koeman's side 3-1 in the first Clasico of the season at Camp Nou last October.
Those two are, at least, very likely to end up in a Champions League place. They are expected to be joined there by Sevilla, who have a 47.8 per cent chance of finishing fourth on 65 points, just three above Villarreal and six clear of Real Sociedad. The remaining European spot is predicted to be a close battle between Granada, Getafe and Real Betis, with Diego Martinez's men odds on to snatch it.
Valencia fans might be enduring a difficult time (again), and our sim has Los Che missing out on European football once more, if only by four points. That said, they still have a 3.6 per cent chance of a Europa League spot, which is better odds than those given to Supercopa de Espana winners Athletic Bilbao.
WOE FOR HUESCA
At the other end of a relatively tight table, in which just 11 points will separate seventh from 16th, it looks like Huesca are in for a tough run-in. They are given a 59.7 per cent chance of finishing bottom of the pile and just a 5.1 per cent shot at avoiding relegation, having won only once so far this term.
Osasuna are predicted to end up just four points above them, with the bottom three likely to be completed by Deportivo Alaves, although Elche will also be right in the mix. In fact, with those two tipped to finish level on 39 points, survival could come down to their head-to-head record, making their showdown on May 11 potentially decisive. Elche have the advantage there, having won the reverse game 2-0 away from home.
Real Valladolid are expected to have just enough to stay out of trouble, although they have scant room for manoeuvre, with our predictor giving them an equal 15.1 per cent chance of finishing 17th and 18th.
Eibar and Cadiz are looking likely to stay safe; indeed, Jose Luis Mendilibar's men, along with Celta Vigo and Athletic, are given a 0.1 per cent chance of gatecrashing the top four. They might well have boosted those odds this week were it not for that pesky Suarez.
Young Reggae Girlz face uphill task in must-win game against US at U-20 Champs
Despite facing an uphill task, Jamaica’s Head coach Hugh Bradford is optimistic that his young Reggae Girlz will produce an improved performance against reigning seven-time champions United States in their second Group A contest at the Concacaf Women’s Under-20 Championship in Dominican Republic on Sunday.
The encounter to take place at the Felix Sanchez Stadium in Santo Domingo, is scheduled for 5:00 pm Jamaica time, after the Canada versus Panama curtain-raiser at 2:00 pm.
After going down 0-4 to Canada in Friday’s opener, the young Reggae Girlz are now caught in a must-win situation in order to keep hopes of securing an historic FIFA Women’s Under-20 World Cup berth alive and Bradford is backing his charges to put their best foot forward on this occasion.
United States, who hammered Panama 6-0 in their opening contest, currently head the standings on three points, same as Canada, but with a better goal difference.
“Yes, it is a difficult task but we are going to try and play our game and not worry about what the opponents will do. I know we have a lot of potential in our team and so I expect the players to go out and give off their best,” Bradford said.
Reflecting on the team’s performance against Canada, the US-based coach pointed out that the players failed to execute as instructed and, as such, were outclassed in all departments and beaten by goals from Anabelle Chukwu (39th and 45th), Olivia Smith (56th) and substitute Renee Watson (90+4).
“I thought we could have been better, but we weren’t entirely bad. We used a lot of energy on the defensive side, didn’t press the ball enough and so we were unable to get anything out of the game,” Bradford reasoned.
“But we have to just leave that game behind us and focus on the next game. We know our performance needed to be better as a team and like I said, I expect the ladies to show some improvements here. Everybody is fine, we had our team meeting and discussed what changes needs to take place as we look ahead,” he added.
Should the Girlz pull off an unlikely upset, it would put them in a good position to secure on of two spots from the group to the knockout stage, as they are set to close against Panama on May 30, while the United States and Canada will have each other to contend with.
Meanwhile, Costa Rica and Mexico, have all but secured the two positions from Group B, with two wins each.
The two finalists and third-place team will represent the confederation at next year’s Under-20 World Cup.
Brighton chief salutes 'phenomenal' De Zerbi as Seagulls prepare for European tour
Brighton and Hove Albion chief executive Paul Barber has saluted "phenomenal" boss Roberto De Zerbi for leading the Seagulls to Europa League qualification.
Brighton will appear on the continent for the first time in their history next season after securing a hugely impressive sixth-placed finish in the Premier League.
De Zerbi has been a revelation since arriving at the Amex Stadium following Graham Potter's move to Chelsea, who subsequently sacked the coach after just under seven months in charge at Stamford Bridge.
Barber has heaped praise upon the Italian, who also guided Brighton to the FA Cup semi-finals, where they were beaten by Manchester United on penalties at Wembley Stadium.
"He's been phenomenal," the Seagulls' chief executive told Stats Perform at the Football Business Awards.
"It's his first time working in the Premier League. He's had to learn English, he's had to adapt to life in England, he's had to learn a new league, work with new players. So we're thrilled for him, and he's done a fantastic job.
"It's the first time in 122 years that we've reached European football. So it's a fantastic achievement for the coaches and the players, and we're delighted for them. And also, I think it's a great opportunity for the fans to celebrate their club in a new competition for the first time."
It was not all plain sailing for Brighton, who saw key forward Leandro Trossard depart for Arsenal during the January transfer window.
But Barber revealed the club were prepared for any possible setbacks, and while he acknowledges more players may leave, he insists that selling is not a necessity.
"The key thing has been succession planning, we have a plan for key positions within the club, should we lose people in those positions," he explained. "I think that's very important if you want to maintain momentum.
"We're fortunate that we've got a very good owner. We've got a fantastic infrastructure, we sell out all of our games, and we generate great revenues from our sponsors, and from our hospitality and non-matchday work. So no, it's not essential.
"But we also recognise that the best players want to play at the top level and it's possible we will lose players at some point."
Barber is also confident it is only a matter of time before former Seagulls boss Potter is given another opportunity following his poor spell at Chelsea.
"Graham worked with us for three years," he added. "He did a fantastic job during his time and sometimes when you move to a different club, for whatever reason, it doesn't work out.
"But what we do know is Graham is an excellent coach and an excellent individual. And I'm sure very soon, he'll be back in top-level football."
Roberto De Zerbi wants to help Jason Steele follow Lewis Dunk into England squad
Roberto De Zerbi hopes to help goalkeeper Jason Steele gain England recognition after claiming Lewis Dunk’s international recall is a comparable achievement to Brighton qualifying for the Europa League.
Seagulls skipper Dunk has been included in Gareth Southgate’s squad for next month’s Euro 2024 qualifiers against Malta and North Macedonia, having been in international exile since his debut in November 2018.
The 31-year-old has been rewarded for his key role in Albion’s sixth-placed Premier League finish.
Former Middlesbrough, Blackburn and Sunderland keeper Steele has also been instrumental during a remarkable season at the Amex Stadium after dislodging Robert Sanchez as first choice in early March.
Brighton head coach De Zerbi believes the 32-year-old is capable of joining Dunk in the national team set-up to compete with the likes of Jordan Pickford, Aaron Ramsdale, Nick Pope and Sam Johnstone.
“It’s great news,” the Italian said of Dunk’s call-up.
“I think it’s maybe the same big news like Europa League because to help one of our players to achieve a target so important, so prestigious is a proud (moment).
“We have to be proud – not only the coaches but the players – for one player.
“We will work in the next season to help Jason Steele to achieve the same target of Lewis Dunk because he has the quality to achieve one target so important.
“In my vision, in my idea, Jason Steele is a top keeper. It’s difficult to find another keeper of this level.
“I study football 24 hours per day but it’s very hard to find another keeper with this quality.”
Steele, a former England Under-21 international who represented Great Britain at the London 2012 Olympics, had never played in the top flight until last term.
He has registered six clean sheets and one assist during the past three months, having been preferred to Sanchez due to his ability to play out from the back.
Steele joined the Seagulls in June 2018 – on the back of suffering successive relegations to League One with Blackburn and Sunderland – and had to wait more than three years for his league debut.
“Football is nice because the past is not important,” said De Zerbi.
“I have to analyse the present and sometimes the potential in the future but the past is not important.
“You can change your life in one day, if you believe in yourself and you believe in work.
“And I told him the same: ‘Jason, you have to think you can change. I give you the possibility to change your life, to change your career and you have to believe in yourself because I help you and you help me and you help the team’.”
Brighton complete an unforgettable campaign at Aston Villa on Sunday after cementing their Europa League spot with Wednesday evening’s 1-1 draw at home to champions Manchester City.
De Zerbi, who succeeded Graham Potter in September, feels Albion can progress significantly next term.
“I am looking forward to working in pre-season because I think we can improve in a lot of things,” he said.
“We have played not more than 70 per cent and we have another 30 per cent of improvement.”
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