Can Paris Saint-Germain get back on track? Are champions Lille in contention again? Could any top French sides face the drop?

Stats Perform aims to answer all of these questions and more as the new Ligue 1 season gets under way.

The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.

The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.

What does that mean for PSG and the rest of the French elite? Read on to find out...

POCH'S PSG TITLE FAVOURITES

It will surprise nobody, but PSG have been identified as the clear pre-season favourites. They are given a huge 79.5 per cent chance of reclaiming their title after falling behind Lille last term.

The signings of Sergio Ramos, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi and Georginio Wijnaldum should ensure PSG get back on track, while Mike Maignan, Boubakary Soumare and coach Christophe Galtier have all left Lille.

The defending champions are still considered PSG's most likely challengers, though.

Lille have a 12.4 per cent likelihood of retaining the championship, which puts them well clear of Lyon (5.7 per cent) in third. Monaco's 2.4 per cent bid to repeat their 2016-17 success makes them the fourth and final side to be given any chance at all.

TOP FOUR SEEMS SET IN STONE

Four into three does not go, so at least one of the title contenders will miss out on the Champions League. They should all make the top four, though, with Europa League qualification guaranteed for fourth place.

PSG unsurprisingly look certain for one of the two automatic Champions League spots, rated at 94.9 per cent.

Lille are considered most likely to join them at 54.6 per cent, leaving Lyon to take third – the Champions League third qualifying round (35.2) per cent – and Monaco fourth – the Europa League group stage (40.0 per cent).

There are at least a clutch of rival clubs given a slim hope of crashing the Champions League party; Marseille (0.5 per cent), Rennes (0.2 per cent) and Montpellier (0.1 per cent) are all just about in the running for second place.

Interestingly, Nice – ninth last term but having recruited Galtier – are not given a significant chance of even making the Champions League qualifiers, whereas Lens (0.2 per cent), Nantes (0.1 per cent), Reims (0.1 per cent), Saint-Etienne (0.1 per cent) and Strasbourg (0.1 per cent) all come into consideration.

Every team in the league have at least a 0.1 per cent likelihood of finishing fifth – a Europa Conference League play-off round place – although PSG are joined by newly promoted pair Troyes and Clermont with the most remote chance.

BIG-NAME BORDEAUX IN BOTHER?

It figures that Troyes (38.8 per cent) and Clermont (34.5 per cent) are backed for relegation straight back down to Ligue 2, but some of last season's top-flight sides are also at significant risk.

Brest are rated at a 26.4 per cent chance of relegation, with Angers at 19.0 per cent and Lorient at 15.0 per cent.

Most interestingly of all, though, Bordeaux are third-favourites for the drop behind the two promoted clubs.

The six-time champions won the title as recently as 2009 but have been in steady decline, even if a 12th-placed finish last time out saw them steer five points clear of the relegation play-off.

Indeed, Bordeaux were in the European picture in late January before an awful run and they will hope new coach Vladimir Petkovic can ensure there are no relegation worries in the coming campaign.

Bayern Munich's rearranged DFB-Pokal clash with Bremer will take place on August 25, the club announced on Thursday.

Julian Nagelsmann's side were meant to get their campaign underway against the fifth-tier outfit this Friday.

However, positive COVID-19 test results forced Bremer into quarantine and subsequently ensured the first-round clash had to be rescheduled.

Bayern announced the new date in a statement on their official website. It read: "FC Bayern's DFB-Pokal match away to Bremer SV has been rearranged for Wednesday August 25. The first-round clash, which was originally scheduled for Friday, had to be postponed due to quarantine measures imposed on the fifth-division club.

"The new date has now been confirmed by the German Football Association (DFB), with the match at Bremen's Weserstadion kicking off at 20:15 CEST. The new date for the draw for the second round is 5 September at 18:30 CEST."

The original postponement meant the Bundesliga champions missed the chance to get crucial minutes into first-team players before their top-flight opener against Borussia Monchengladbach on August 13.

Further scheduling issues may follow for the Bavarians given they must play five times in 15 days, including the DFL-Supercup against Borussia Dortmund and clashes with both Cologne and Hertha Berlin.

Aside from Nagelsmann's appointment, Bayern have had a quiet transfer window, with the only signing of note being the acquisition of RB Leipzig's Dayot Upamecano following the departures of club greats David Alaba and Jerome Boateng.

Megan Rapinoe scored direct from a corner as she and fellow United States veteran Carli Lloyd hit doubles to sink Australia 4-3 in the Olympic Games bronze medal game.

Australia's replies came from Sam Kerr, Caitlin Foord and Emily Gielnik in the seven-goal feast at Ibaraki Kashima Stadium.

It was 36-year-old Rapinoe and 39-year-old Lloyd who stole the show, though, on what may prove to be farewell appearances for the superstar duo.

Whether they play on in the short term for the national team remains to be seen, but this was likely a final outing at the Olympics for both, and they went out in style.

Rapinoe opened the scoring in the eighth minute when her wicked in-swinging corner from the left evaded everybody and found the net.

Kerr levelled seven minutes later with her 48th goal for Australia – a new national team record – when her shot proved too powerful for Adrianna Franch, but it was soon Rapinoe's time again.

The standout player from the 2019 World Cup smashed in her second goal of this game on the volley, connecting sweetly from around 12 yards after Alanna Kennedy sliced an attempted clearance.

Lloyd, who became the outright second most-capped player in US history by making her 312th appearance, got in on the goals just before half time. Her thumping left-footed shot across goal found the right corner, putting the US 3-1 up.

Lloyd scored again in the 51st minute after another Kennedy error, this time a weak header back to her goalkeeper allowing Lloyd a clear run on goal, with the striker slotting home.

That made her the US team's all-time highest scorer in Olympic women's football with 10 goals. Lloyd won Olympic gold in 2008 and 2012, with Rapinoe also on the triumphant latter team in London.

Australia got back into this game with a header from Foord after 54 minutes, and Kerr headed against the left post two minutes later. Substitute Gielnik rattled in a delicious late third for Australia, but they could not find a fourth.

Jack Grealish's mooted move to Manchester City appears set to imminently go through.

City manager Pep Guardiola has long admired the 25-year-old England midfielder.

English champions City have also been linked with Harry Kane as they chase an elusive Champions League crown.

TOP STORY - GREALISH BOOKED IN FOR MAN CITY MEDICAL

Aston Villa's Grealish is on the cusp of completing his £100million transfer to join Manchester City, according to the Birmingham Mail.

The report claims Grealish was due to arrive in Manchester on Wednesday, with a medical booked in.

Grealish returned from a holiday after Euro 2020 this week and was spotted at Villa training on Wednesday but has since reportedly headed north.

ROUND-UP

- Sky Sports claims Aston Villa are lining up a move for Norwich City midfielder Todd Cantwell as they prepare for Grealish to depart.

- Tottenham are plotting moves for PSV's Noni Madueke and Denmark's Euro 2020 star Mikkel Damsgaard according to the Evening Standard, as they plan their windfall from Harry Kane's potential sale to Manchester City.

- Fresh from Danny Ings leaving for Villa, Southampton are closing in on Blackburn forward Adam Armstrong, reports Football League World.

- The Sun claims Norwich City are looking to launch a £15m bid for Blackburn's Armstrong too. Irish prospect Adam Idah could be included in a player-plus-cash deal.

- Atalanta are set to hold talks with Chelsea for a move for striker Tammy Abraham according to Gianluca Di Marzio.

Sporting KC scored three first-half goals on their way to a 4-1 win at LAFC to claim top spot in the Western Conference in the MLS on Wednesday.

Alan Pulido, Luis Martins and Daniel Salloi all scored within 16 minutes as KC raced to a 3-0 lead. Salloi's classy volley took his tally to nine goals this MLS season.

Israeli midfielder Gadi Kinda added a fourth in the 58th minute with Graham Zusi getting his second assist, before LAFC got a consolation from Danny Musovski.

The win lifted Sporting KC past Seattle Sounders who conceded in the 90th minute to draw 1-1 at home with Dallas.

Fredy Montero had put the Sounders ahead in the 72nd minute with a set-piece header but Dallas equalised from Franco Jara's 90th-minute close-range strike.

Sporting KC are ahead of Seattle on goal difference, with both sides having 33 points, although the leaders have a game in hand.

LA Galaxy are third following a 1-0 victory over Real Salt Lake, secured by Efrain Alvarez's cool 53rd-minute winner.

Eastern Conference leaders New England extended their unbeaten run to five games with a 0-0 draw against Nashville, who slip to fourth despite the result.

The draw also extends Nashville's undefeated streak to nine games.

Former England international Kieran Gibbs netted a 66th-minute equaliser to earn Inter Miami a 1-1 draw away to fellow Florida outfit Orlando City. The goal was Gibbs' first in the MLS.

Philadelphia Union ended their three-game winless run with a 3-0 victory over Toronto after three first-half strikes.

Ola Kamara and Yordy Reyna both netted doubles as DC United won 4-2 over Columbus Crew.

Tomas Pochettino scored a first-half brace as struggling Austin won 3-2 over Houston Dynamo.

Chicago Fire and 10-man New York City played out a goalless draw, while New York Red Bulls and Cincinnati also ended 0-0 and Portland Timbers drew 1-1 with San Jose Earthquakes.

Wesley Fofana suffered a potentially serious injury on Wednesday as he left the pitch on a stretcher during Leicester City's pre-season friendly against Villarreal.

The defender was carrying the ball forward when he was caught by a lunging slide tackle from behind by Fernando Nino, forcing the Frenchman off injured on the hour-mark at the King Power Stadium.

Paramedics and Leicester's physios immediately rushed on to tend to Fofana before carrying him off on a stretcher and Brendan Rodgers was visibly frustrated with both the Villarreal dugout and players on the pitch.

The details of his injury remain unclear but it potentially leaves Leicester, who are already without the injured Jonny Evans, another defender short just 10 days before the Premier League campaign begins.

Having joined from Saint-Etienne in September 2020, Fofana impressed in his debut season as he made 28 appearances for Rodgers' men, who missed out on Champions League football at the final hurdle.

Despite missing 10 top-flight fixtures, Fofana ranked third for the Foxes in terms of duels won (183), second for aerial success (91) and joint-first for interceptions with Wilfried Ndidi (61 each).

Leicester were leading 3-0 at the time, though only finished as 3-2 winners over Villarreal, with the La Liga outfit pulling back two late goals.

The Foxes, who won the FA Cup against Chelsea last term, have now completed their final pre-season game and next face Manchester City in the Community Shield on Saturday.

A Tottenham side deprived of the services of star man Harry Kane fought back after two Hakim Ziyech goals to earn a 2-2 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Goals either side of half-time from Ziyech gave Chelsea a well-deserved two-goal lead but Lucas Moura and Steven Bergwijn cancelled out the Blues' advantage with second-half finishes of their own.

Having paraded their Champions League trophy in front of the near-capacity crowd prior to kick-off, Chelsea got off to an emphatic start with Ziyech blasting in low from the edge of the area to capitalise on Lucas' laziness in possession.

Timo Werner thought he had added a second after rounding Pierluigi Gollini, though the offside flag denied him – with no VAR in operation, the Germany forward could not argue with the decision, despite seemingly looking onside.

Tottenham, who were still without the absent Kane amid his apparent desire to leave, named a strong starting-11, including Son Heung-Min and Dele Alli, but fell two behind when Ziyech drilled in a second just two minutes after the break.

Lucas responded for Nuno Espirito Santo's side, netting a third in pre-season courtesy of a fortuitous looping deflection off Antonio Rudiger wrong-footing Edouard Mendy.

Bergwijn levelled things up 14 minutes later with a thumping finish past Mendy after smart link-up play down the left flank by Moura and Son.

Having dominated for large periods the draw may frustrate Chelsea, who next face Villarreal in the European Super Cup on August 11, while Tottenham round-off their pre-season preparations against Arsenal three days before.

A brace from Hakim Ziyech had Chelsea seemingly coasting to victory at Stamford Bridge before Tottenham fought back to earn a 2-2 pre-season draw on Wednesday.

Goals either side of half-time from Ziyech gave Chelsea a well-deserved two-goal lead but Lucas Moura and Steven Bergwijn cancelled out the Blues' advantage with second-half finishes of their own.

Having paraded their Champions League trophy in front of the near-capacity crowd prior to kick-off, Chelsea got off to an emphatic start with Ziyech blasting in low from the edge of the area to capitalise on Lucas' laziness in possession.

Timo Werner thought he had added a second after rounding Pierluigi Gollini, though the offside flag denied him – with no VAR in operation, the Germany forward could not argue with the decision, despite seemingly looking onside.

Tottenham, who were still without the absent Harry Kane, named a strong starting-11, including Son Heung-Min and Dele Alli, but fell two behind when Ziyech drilled in a second just two minutes after the break.

Lucas responded for Nuno Espirito Santo's side, netting a third in pre-season courtesy of a fortuitous looping deflection off Antonio Rudiger wrong-footing Edouard Mendy.

Bergwijn levelled things up 14 minutes later with a thumping finish past Mendy after smart link-up play down the left flank by Moura and Son.

Having dominated for large periods the draw may frustrate Chelsea, who next face Villarreal in the European Super Cup on August 11, while Tottenham round-off their pre-season preparations against Arsenal three days before.

Alisson has become the latest Liverpool star to commit his future to the Anfield club.

The Reds announced a "new long-term contract" for their goalkeeper on Wednesday, with the deal widely reported to run until June 2027.

Alisson has joined Trent Alexander-Arnold and Fabinho in penning an extension ahead of the new Premier League season.

"I think I didn't waste too much time to think about that," the Brazil international told Liverpool's official website.

"It's something we just built in those last three years, the confidence, the trust that I have in the club and the club has in myself.

"Me and my family, we are really happy here. My kids are settled in England, in a different country, but they are growing up in that way. So, we are really happy.

"I'm really glad that I can keep going on with my work here, doing a good job here. So, I'm really happy to make this decision – that is not hard for me."

The 28-year-old joined Liverpool from Roma in 2018 and won the Champions League in his first season in England.

The Reds followed up that success by ending a 30-year wait for a domestic crown with their 2019-20 Premier League triumph.

Since his signing, Alisson has played exactly 100 times in the Premier League and kept 44 clean sheets – fewer only than Manchester City goalkeeper and international team-mate Ederson.

Among keepers with 50 or more appearances in the competition over this period, Hugo Lloris (74.7) is the sole man with a save percentage better than Alisson's 73.6.

The Liverpool star also memorably scored a late winner at West Brom last season that kept his side's Champions League qualification push on track, but he now has loftier ambitions.

"We have to set goals and we have to set them high – winning everything that we are playing [for], the Champions League, Premier League, the cups, everything," he said. "I think we can start from there.

"But obviously winning depends on what we will put on the pitch, what we will give on the pitch and we have to give 100 per cent at least. If we can push harder, we will go."

Liverpool's 69 points last season was the fifth-lowest total by a defending Premier League champion, but only City (32), Chelsea (36) and Arsenal (39) conceded fewer goals than the Reds (42), who had to deal with numerous defensive injuries.

Alisson has become the latest Liverpool star to commit his future to the Anfield club.

The Reds announced a "new long-term contract" for their goalkeeper on Wednesday, with the deal widely reported to run until June 2027.

Alisson has joined Trent Alexander-Arnold and Fabinho in penning an extension ahead of the new Premier League season.
 

Christian Eriksen has returned to Inter's training ground for the first time since his cardiac arrest at Euro 2020 in Denmark's opener against Finland.

In worrying scenes in June, Eriksen was given CPR after collapsing on the pitch, while his team-mates formed a protective screen around him, before subsequently receiving successful heart surgery.

Eriksen, 29, was then fitted with a pacemaker before going home to recover in Denmark, where he has undergone a host of further medical tests to discover why the cardiac arrest happened.

The former Tottenham midfielder visited Inter's training ground on Wednesday and the 2020-21 Scudetto winners said he was in "excellent physical condition".

A statement released on the club's official website said: "Eriksen, who greeted managers, coaches, team-mates and all the staff present, is fine and in excellent mental and physical condition.

"Eriksen will follow the recovery programme proposed by the Danish doctors in Copenhagen, who will coordinate all the clinical follow-up and will always keep the Inter Milan medical staff informed."

If Eriksen did want to return for Inter, however, he would have to have his ICD – a device connected to his heart to regulate abnormal rhythms – removed due to Italian restrictions preventing people playing contact sport with such devices in operation.

Other European countries, though, do not follow the same protocols as seen in the example of Daley Blind, who continued to regularly feature for Ajax after he had an ICD fitted in 2019.

Eriksen joined Inter, who open their new campaign against Genoa on August 21, in January 2020 and made 26 appearances in their title-winning season.

Louis van Gaal has returned to football management after being named as the new head coach of the Netherlands.

The 69-year-old, who announced his retirement in 2019, is back for a third spell in charge of the national team as their World Cup qualifying campaign prepares to resume next month.

His first appointment since leaving Manchester United back in 2016, he takes over following the departure of Frank de Boer, who stepped down after the Netherlands' last-16 exit from Euro 2020.

Van Gaal, who will be assisted by Danny Blind and Henk Fraser with Frans Hoek serving as goalkeeping coach, was first in charge between 2000 and 2002 but stepped down after failing to secure qualification for the World Cup.

He returned for a second stint in 2012, guiding his nation to third place at the World Cup in Brazil two years later before departing for Old Trafford.

Van Gaal's first match back in charge sees the Dutch travel to Norway on September 1 in a World Cup qualifier.

Currently second in Group G with six points from three matches, the Netherlands then play back-to-back home games against Montenegro and table-topping Turkey.

Van Gaal said: "Dutch football has always been close to my heart and the national coach is, in my opinion, a key position for moving our football forward. 

"Moreover, I consider it an honour to coach the Dutch national team. There is little time until the next qualifiers, which are immediately crucial for participation in the World Cup. 

"The focus is, therefore, 100 per cent on the players and the approach. After all, that's what I'm assigned to do. It's good to be back. 

"I have already spoken to a number of players and together with the KNVB (the Dutch Football Association), the technical staff has been assembled. I'm really looking forward to getting the job done together."

Nico-Jan Hoogma, KNVB director, added: "In the coming months, we will be tasked with qualifying for the World Cup. For this, we have a minimum preparation period. 

"In view of this job, we were looking for a coach with exceptional qualities, who can also anticipate quickly. 

"With his experience and track record at the highest level, we have that coach in our eyes with Louis van Gaal. The contact was made quickly and we have spoken many times since then. 

"In the last few days, we have been able to carefully put the finishing touches together. We are happy that Louis is taking on this job."

A league winner in three different countries, having secured domestic titles while at Ajax, Barcelona and Bayern Munich, Van Gaal has enjoyed a hugely successful managerial career.

He also won the Champions League with Ajax in 1995, then guided Bayern to the final 15 years later.

Van Gaal won 27 of the 44 games he oversaw during his first two spells with the Netherlands, drawing 13 and losing just four.

Real Madrid look set to be without Toni Kroos for the start of the new season, with the midfielder confirming he has been suffering with a pubic bone issue.

Madrid confirmed on Tuesday that Kroos, who retired from international football following Germany's disappointing showing at Euro 2020, had been diagnosed with a pubalgia – a strain or tear of the soft tissue in the groin.

Kroos subsequently revealed on Twitter that he had been suffering with the problem for some time.

"After several month (sic.) of problems on my pubic bone I think it's time to give it a rest and work on it to be well prepared for a long season. Back asap as always," the 31-year-old tweeted.

On Wednesday, reports in Spanish publication AS suggested Kroos could be out for around a month.

Even if the estimation proves incorrect, Kroos seems highly unlikely to be able to play in Carlo Ancelotti's opening LaLiga match of his second stint in charge of Madrid.

Los Blancos, who face Milan on Sunday in their final pre-season friendly, take on Deportivo Alaves on August 14. They then travel to Levante and Real Betis before the first international break of 2021-22.

Kroos made 28 league appearances last term, scoring three goals. 

Aston Villa have confirmed the signing of Leon Bailey from Bayer Leverkusen for a reported £30million fee.

The Premier League club announced at the end of July that an agreement was in place with Leverkusen, with the player now completing his medical and agreeing personal terms on a contract that runs through to 2025.

A Jamaica international, Bailey scored 15 goals and provided 10 assists for the Bundesliga side across 40 appearances in all competitions last term.

The 23-year-old becomes the second big-money signing for Villa ahead of the 2021-22 season, following on from the arrival of Emiliano Buendia from Norwich City. Ashley Young has also re-joined the club on a free transfer.

"Leon is a hugely exciting young striker with great pace and creativity," Villa boss Dean Smith said of Bailey, who scored 39 goals for Leverkusen after joining from Genk in January 2017.   

"He has enjoyed a successful career at Leverkusen and we are now looking forward to watching him show his skills and talents for Aston Villa in the Premier League."

It remains to be seen if Smith will have Jack Grealish as part of his first-team squad once the transfer window closes, however, as Villa’s captain has been heavily linked with a move to champions Manchester City.

Villa have a pre-season friendly against Sevilla on Saturday before opening the new season with a trip to promoted Watford on August 14.

European champions Chelsea have been in the market for a new striker this off-season.

The Blues chased Erling Haaland without success and have now set their sights on Romelu Lukaku.

Lukaku was on Chelsea's books from 2011 and 2014 but has since become one of the world's best forwards.

TOP STORY - CHELSEA TO TABLE NEW BUMPER LUKAKU BID

Chelsea  are preparing to table a new bid of between £100million and £110m (€120-130m) bid for Inter forward  Lukaku  claims Fabrizio Romano.

The Blues had an initial £85m (€100m) offer, including Marcos Alonso, for the Belgian striker rejected by Inter.

The Sun claim Lukaku is keen on a return to Chelsea, citing "unfinished business" from his previous stint in London.

ROUND-UP

- Paris Saint-Germain are not guaranteed to retain Real Madrid target  Kylian Mbappe , reports AS. The France superstar has already informed PSG that he will not extend his current contract, due to expire in 2022, and president Nasser Al-Khelaifi is set to take over talks.

- Aymeric Laporte has told Manchester City he wants to leave to return to Spain this off-season, reports 90min. Barcelona and Real Madrid are both interested in the Spain international, who is not first choice at City.

- Arsenal have proposed a player-plus-cash deal, believed to be worth £60m, for Leicester City's James Maddison according to Football.London, but negotiations are "very slow". 

- Tottenham will complete a £47m (€55m) deal for Atalanta defender  Cristian Romero imminently according to Romano. Atalanta will fill the void by signing Merih Demiral from Juventus.