Can Paris Saint-Germain get back on track? Are champions Lille in contention again? Could any top French sides face the drop?
Stats Perform aims to answer all of these questions and more as the new Ligue 1 season gets under way.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
What does that mean for PSG and the rest of the French elite? Read on to find out...
POCH'S PSG TITLE FAVOURITES
It will surprise nobody, but PSG have been identified as the clear pre-season favourites. They are given a huge 79.5 per cent chance of reclaiming their title after falling behind Lille last term.
The signings of Sergio Ramos, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi and Georginio Wijnaldum should ensure PSG get back on track, while Mike Maignan, Boubakary Soumare and coach Christophe Galtier have all left Lille.
The defending champions are still considered PSG's most likely challengers, though.
Lille have a 12.4 per cent likelihood of retaining the championship, which puts them well clear of Lyon (5.7 per cent) in third. Monaco's 2.4 per cent bid to repeat their 2016-17 success makes them the fourth and final side to be given any chance at all.
TOP FOUR SEEMS SET IN STONE
Four into three does not go, so at least one of the title contenders will miss out on the Champions League. They should all make the top four, though, with Europa League qualification guaranteed for fourth place.
PSG unsurprisingly look certain for one of the two automatic Champions League spots, rated at 94.9 per cent.
Lille are considered most likely to join them at 54.6 per cent, leaving Lyon to take third – the Champions League third qualifying round (35.2) per cent – and Monaco fourth – the Europa League group stage (40.0 per cent).
There are at least a clutch of rival clubs given a slim hope of crashing the Champions League party; Marseille (0.5 per cent), Rennes (0.2 per cent) and Montpellier (0.1 per cent) are all just about in the running for second place.
Interestingly, Nice – ninth last term but having recruited Galtier – are not given a significant chance of even making the Champions League qualifiers, whereas Lens (0.2 per cent), Nantes (0.1 per cent), Reims (0.1 per cent), Saint-Etienne (0.1 per cent) and Strasbourg (0.1 per cent) all come into consideration.
Every team in the league have at least a 0.1 per cent likelihood of finishing fifth – a Europa Conference League play-off round place – although PSG are joined by newly promoted pair Troyes and Clermont with the most remote chance.
BIG-NAME BORDEAUX IN BOTHER?
It figures that Troyes (38.8 per cent) and Clermont (34.5 per cent) are backed for relegation straight back down to Ligue 2, but some of last season's top-flight sides are also at significant risk.
Brest are rated at a 26.4 per cent chance of relegation, with Angers at 19.0 per cent and Lorient at 15.0 per cent.
Most interestingly of all, though, Bordeaux are third-favourites for the drop behind the two promoted clubs.
The six-time champions won the title as recently as 2009 but have been in steady decline, even if a 12th-placed finish last time out saw them steer five points clear of the relegation play-off.
Indeed, Bordeaux were in the European picture in late January before an awful run and they will hope new coach Vladimir Petkovic can ensure there are no relegation worries in the coming campaign.
St. Louis City v LA Galaxy: Reus sets sights on silverware after dream start
Marco Reus is desperate to bring silverware to the LA Galaxy after making a flying start to his time in MLS, with St. Louis City the destination for his first road game on Sunday.
Reus registered a goal and an assist on debut last week as the Galaxy beat Atlanta United 2-0, maintaining their grip on top spot in the Western Conference.
The Galaxy are five points clear of local rivals Los Angeles FC at the top of the standings ahead of Sunday's trip to St. Louis, who are 13th and 10 points adrift of the playoff picture.
Reus' arrival in Los Angeles has caused plenty of fanfare, but he is focused solely on the team's collective aims.
"It's not about me, it's about the team," he said. "We want to be champions. So we take it game by game.
"Besides the traffic, it's really amazing. The people are so friendly. The weather, it's really nice. When you wake up in the morning and the sun is shining, you start the day differently.
"So I'm really, really happy every morning I come into the dressing room. I'm just happy and excited."
St. Louis played out a thrilling 4-4 draw with the Portland Timbers last week, twice throwing away a two-goal lead to leave interim coach John Hackworth bewildered.
"Really don't know what to say," Hackworth said. "It's hard to imagine coming to a place like this and scoring four goals, being up, and then just losing one-versus-one defensive battles.
"Sometimes, the number of goals you give up, or the number of goals you score, can hide a lot of the transition moments.
"An easy way to prevent some of these defensive miscues from happening is to just be better with the ball."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
St. Louis City – Eduard Lowen
Lowen scored his fourth goal of the MLS season last time out, converting from the penalty spot as St. Louis drew 4-4 with the Timbers.
Only Joao Klauss, with five goals, has outscored him for St. Louis this term.
LA Galaxy – Marco Reus
Reus is one of 20 players in MLS history to record a goal and an assist on his regular-season debut.
He is also the fifth Galaxy player to do so, after Steven Gerrard, Andreas Herzog, Giovani dos Santos and Sasha Victorine. No other team have had more than two players achieve the feat.
MATCH PREDICTION – DRAW
The Galaxy have won 10 of their last 13 regular-season matches, the first time they have done so in a single season since 2011. LA have not recorded 11 wins in a span of 14 matches within a single regular season in the post-shootout era (since 2000).
It would be no surprise to see the points shared in this one, though. All three meetings between St. Louis and the Galaxy have ended level, all with different scorelines (1-1, 2-2, 3-3).
St. Louis have only won one of the last six matches in which they have held the lead in regular-season play dating back to the beginning of June (four draws, one defeat).
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
St. Louis City – 35.8%
LA Galaxy – 38.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Raphinha hails Barcelona after statement win over Valladolid
Barcelona forward Raphinha believes the team have laid down a statement of their intent by starting the season with four straight wins in LaLiga.
Raphinha scored the first hat-trick of his career and also delivered two assists on Saturday, as Barca crushed Real Valladolid 7-0 at Camp Nou.
Hansi Flick's side already possess a four-point cushion at the top of the table after also recording victories over Valencia, Athletic Bilbao and Rayo Vallecano.
Raphinha believes their results have demonstrated the club got things right in the transfer market, telling Movistar: "Today's game has shown that there is no need for anyone else to come. We are very happy because of that.
"We are in very good shape. The team is working hard. Today's result shows what we are working for.
"We saw that the coach was on the sidelines asking for more goals and that's our mentality.
"We are hungry and want to score as many goals as we can. When we are dominant like we have been, the best way to respect our rivals is not taking the foot off the gas."
Raphinha was one of the players who faced criticism during Barca's trophyless 2023-24 campaign and was rumoured to be on his way out ahead of the new season.
The Blaugrana again battled financial restrictions throughout the window, allowing Ilkay Gundogan to leave in order to secure the registration of new arrival Dani Olmo.
With his future now certain, Raphinha is keen to nail down a starting spot and contribute on a regular basis.
"I don't know if today's was my best game, but it's certainly among my best. I will try to play even better and as much as I can," the Brazilian said.
"I'm very happy to be able to help the team. I feel good. I knew that this season would be very important for me. I'm looking for my best version to help my team-mates and be more confident."
Lazio 2-2 Milan: Leao salvages draw but Rossoneri still winless
Rafael Leao came off the bench to earn Milan a 2-2 draw with Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, but Paulo Fonseca's side are still without a Serie A win this season.
Milan were in front at the break through Strahinja Pavlovic's eighth-minute goal, the Serbian rising highest to power home a header from Christian Pulisic's corner.
However, Lazio hit back in the second half with Valentin Castellanos and Boulaye Dia scoring in quick succession.
Nuno Tavares' first-time ball into the centre was met by the unmarked Castellanos to level in the 62nd minute, then Dia tapped another Tavares cutback home to put the Biancocelesti ahead four minutes later.
Fonseca reacted by sending on four substitutes, and those changes had a swift impact as three of them combined for the leveller.
Theo Hernandez – who joined Leao in being dropped from the start – picked out Tammy Abraham, and his lay-off allowed Leao to escape Tavares to fire past Ivan Provedel.
The game was preceded by an emotional tribute to the man who led Lazio to their last league title, Sven-Goran Eriksson, who died at the age of 76 on Monday.
A Lazio shirt bearing the Swede's name was displayed on the home bench, while a banner held up by the home fans read: "You brought us to the top of the world... Have a good trip Mr. Sven."
Data Debrief: Milan's slow start continues
New Milan boss Fonseca is already under pressure after overseeing a return of two points from his first three league games at the helm.
It is the first time the Rossoneri have drawn two of their opening three matches in a Serie A season since 2011-12, when they also drew two and lost one,
They went on to finish second that season, just four points adrift of champions Juventus. If a title challenge is to take place this term, rapid improvements are needed.
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