The 2022 NFL season heads into its final two weeks with battles for the postseason and for playoff seeding set to go right to the wire.

Nine teams have already clinched their place in the postseason, and there are seven teams with clinching scenarios in Week 17.

That should make for a fascinating slate of games in which the finer details that often prove decisive will be even more critical.

In a week where so many have so much to play for, Stats Perform has picked out the biggest games of the week and used its advanced data to break down the key matchups that could settle their outcomes.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Win Probability: Buccaneers 72.9 per cent

Key Matchup: Panthers' run game vs. Tampa Bay defense

The Buccaneers know the task in front of them at Raymond James Stadium: win and, despite an extremely underwhelming season, and they are in the playoffs as champions of the dismal NFC South.

Lose and the Panthers will have the lead of the division with the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay heading into the final week of the regular season.

Carolina stunningly prevailed 21-3 over Tampa Bay in Week 7 and the key to that win will again likely determine whether the Panthers can complete the sweep.

The Panthers averaged 6.4 yards per rush in that victory and head into this game on the back of racking up 320 yards on the ground in a dominant win over the Detroit Lions.

While Carolina had success running the ball against Tampa Bay in the previous meeting, the Buccaneers remain one of the better teams in the NFL defending the ground game. Indeed, their run success rate allowed of 33.7 per cent is tied for the fourth-best in the NFL.

If the Bucs can take away the Carolina ground game and force Sam Darnold to win the game on his arm, Tampa Bay figure to be excellently positioned to claim victory and the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Win Probability: Vikings 56.3 per cent

Key Matchup: Justin Jefferson vs. Jaire Alexander

Way back in Week 1, the Vikings cruised to a 23-7 win over the Packers that set the tone for hugely contrasting seasons. The Vikings have usurped the Packers as the dominant force in the NFC North, though each of their 11 wins since the season-opening defeat of Green Bay have been by one score.

Though the Vikings' ability to close out tight games has been extremely impressive, their inability to put teams away earlier gives them an air of vulnerability that Green Bay will look to exploit as the 7-8 Packers aim to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Still looking over their shoulders at the hottest team in football, the San Francisco 49ers, in the race for the second seed in the NFC, and within touching distance of the Philadelphia Eagles in the fight for the one seed, the Vikings have no shortage of motivation to make it two wins out of two against their biggest rivals this season.

Their simplest route to claiming a comfortable win over the Packers is to feed the man who shredded Green Bay in the season opener. Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that contest and has continued to embellish his resume as arguably the best wide receiver in football in 2022.

No receiver in the NFL has more receptions of 20 yards or more than Jefferson's 27 this season, and the Packers will be desperate to try to limit his impact at Lambeau Field.

The debate in Week 1 surrounded whether the Packers should have had cornerback Jaire Alexander shadow Jefferson and he will surely look to match up with the Vikings star this time around.

While not performing at his All-Pro level of 2020, Alexander is 23rd among outside cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps for burn rate, which measures how often a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted. Alexander has allowed receivers to win their matchup on 33 of his 72 targets for a burn rate of 45.9 per cent.

Jefferson will still fancy he can get the better of Alexander and, coming off a strong performance against the Miami Dolphins, the latter's ability to contain one of the NFL's premier offensive weapons may have a significant bearing on whether the Packers are playing postseason football in the second full week of January.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Win Probability: Bills 61.5 per cent

Key Matchup: Joe Burrow vs. Buffalo pass rush

The Bengals and Bills square off in one of the most significant Monday Night Football games in recent memory with both teams firmly in the mix for the one seed in the AFC.

Defeat for the Bills would likely give the Kansas City Chiefs, who face the Denver Broncos on Sunday, top spot going into Week 18, but it would also see the Bengals leapfrog them and put Cincinnati in position to potentially host two home playoff games. The Bengals also hold the tiebreaker over the Chiefs but are a game back on Kansas City.

Even with a win in Buffalo, the Bengals would likely need help from the Las Vegas Raiders against the Chiefs in Week 18 to top the AFC. Their path to keeping those hopes alive with victory in Orchard Park surrounds the man who propelled Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season, Joe Burrow.

Though the Bengals' offensive line has improved this year, it still ranks 24th in pass block win rate. Buffalo's defense, missing Von Miller following his season-ending knee injury, is fourth in pass rush win rate.

It is a mismatch on paper, but one Burrow can negate with his ability to get the ball out quickly and accurately.

Only Tom Brady (2.35 seconds) has a quicker average time to throw from snap to release than Burrow (2.45 seconds) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, and the Cincinnati quarterback has again been devastatingly accurate with his ball placement. He has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 87.5 per cent of attempts, the third-best ratio in the league (min. 200 throws).

Burrow is a quarterback who in his still young pro career has shone while under the biggest spotlights. Both he and a Buffalo defense minus the player recruited in the offseason to help put the Bills over the top, will hope to prove they are ready to deliver in the pressure cooker of the playoffs by producing a decisive performance in a game that will go a long way to deciding how complicated each team's path becomes.

Those who celebrate at this time of year will have barely had time to throw away the wrapping paper and store their strange jumpers back in the wardrobe.

Whether they got what they wanted or not, football fans develop a different kind of lust as January approaches, with transfer season opening for another month.

Some big names are already being linked with possible moves, with the most obvious being free agent Cristiano Ronaldo after his release by Manchester United.

Deals are already being put in place for January 1, with Cody Gakpo confirmed to be on his way to Liverpool from PSV.

Before the chaos of the January transfer window begins, Stats Perform has looked at some players who could be in the middle of a tug of war and end the first month of 2023 at a new club.

Cristiano Ronaldo

It seemed a strange thing for Ronaldo to do, but whether it was his intention or not, the Portugal star effectively ended his relationship with Manchester United when he decided to take public swipes at club figures, including manager Erik ten Hag, via an interview with Piers Morgan prior to the World Cup.

It led to the strange situation of seeing his great rival Lionel Messi lift the World Cup at the same time as Ronaldo did not even have a club.

In theory, there should be plenty lining up to offer him a deal, even if he does turn 38 in just over a month. Ronaldo scored 24 goals in 38 games for United last season, and left the club with only four former United players having a better overall goal per game ratio in the Premier League than his 0.44 (Ruud van Nistelrooy – 0.63, Andy Cole – 0.48, Wayne Rooney – 0.47, and Eric Cantona – 0.45).

However, with his wage demands and the likely reputational damage done by the nature of his acrimonious exit from Old Trafford, it does not seem like Europe's biggest clubs are eager to make a move, despite the likes of Bayern Munich, Chelsea and arguably former club Real Madrid seemingly in the market for a striker.

It therefore seems likely Saudi Arabia side Al Nassr could have an unopposed run at him with their reported mega-money offer, though Ronaldo does not need to rush any decision as his free agency status means he can complete a transfer at any time.

 

Joao Felix

Another Portuguese attacker who looks likely to be playing elsewhere by February, Joao Felix is at the other end of his career, needing to find somewhere to fulfil his early promise.

Joao Felix moved to Atletico Madrid from Benfica for a reported €127million in 2019 at the age of 19 after contributing to 22 goals in 26 Primeira Liga appearances (15 goals, seven assists) but despite brief flashes, has never really come close to living up to that giant fee in Spain.

The 23-year-old has managed 33 goals and 16 assists in 129 appearances for Atletico, but has reportedly fallen out with head coach Diego Simeone, and is now being offered around a host of clubs in England.

Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Aston Villa are supposedly among those agent Jorge Mendes has approached, and all arguably have space in their team for another attacker ahead of the second half of the season.

Wherever he ends up, Joao Felix will hope he can finally produce the promise many saw in him as a teenager and find himself a long-term home to thrive.

Enzo Fernandez

In theory, most of Europe's elite clubs should be kicking themselves right now.

Fernandez only joined Benfica from River Plate at the start of this season for a reported fee of €12m, where he has shone in performances both domestically and in the Champions League.

That earned the midfielder a place in Lionel Scaloni's Argentina squad for the World Cup, and despite starting the tournament on the bench, he forced his way in to become a key part of the team that lifted the trophy in Qatar, earning himself the Best Young Player award in the process.

Unsurprisingly, the sharks are now circling, and Fernandez – who led all players for touches (118), successful passes (77) and tackles (10) in the World Cup final – could be making a swift exit from Lisbon.

Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd and Newcastle have been credited with an interest, though for Benfica to agree to do business mid-season as they sit top of the Primeira Liga and with a Champions League last 16 tie against Club Brugge to come, you would think they will want a huge fee approaching or beyond nine figures just to pick up the phone.

Mykhaylo Mudryk

As with Fernandez, Mudryk is a player who has seen his profile go up quickly in a short space of time.

Before the start of this season, the 21-year-old winger was being courted by the likes of Brentford and Everton, but his performances – particularly in the Champions League – have caught the eye of those higher up the food chain.

Mudryk scored three goals in six games in the Champions League group stage, having also recorded seven goals and six assists in 12 Ukrainian Premier League games prior to the mid-season break.

Arsenal seem to be the most interested party ahead of January, and reportedly have already lodged a bid, but the supposed demands of Shakhtar Donetsk could be what turns this into a saga.

Suggestions are that Shakhtar want up to €100m (£85m), and could try to take advantage of Arsenal's desperation as the Gunners try to maintain their Premier League title challenge after star striker Gabriel Jesus was ruled out for up to three months through injury.

 

Man Utd and any striker

It is not just players who take part in transfer sagas, clubs do as well, and few do so more often and more spectacularly than the Red Devils.

The will-they-won't-they drama appears to have already started for January as United were seemingly pipped to Gakpo by rivals Liverpool, and alternative names are already popping up in a story that could potentially drag throughout the month.

With a Ronaldo-shaped hole in the team, boss Ten Hag has already said he is seeking reinforcements, emphasising "it has to be the right one."

As well as Felix, United have been linked with moves for Goncalo Ramos, Dusan Vlahovic and even former Old Trafford man Memphis Depay.

With reports that Ten Hag could be limited to the loan market thanks to their heavy spending in the previous window and the Glazers' ongoing attempts to sell the club, perhaps United will be forced to make a move similar to the one that saw Odion Ighalo join temporarily in January 2020.

Cristiano Ronaldo's move to Saudi Pro League side Al Nassr looks likely to bring the curtain down on one of the greatest careers in the history of European football.

While writing off Ronaldo is always unwise, a combination of the striker's age and the unsavoury nature of his second spell at Manchester United make a return to elite European football seem improbable.

As a five-time Champions League winner and the top scorer in the history of European football's premier club competition, Ronaldo's legacy as one of the all-time greats is secure.

However, with seven top-flight league titles and a plethora of other trophies to his name, Ronaldo's impact on the continental game went beyond his goals on the grandest club stage.

With the five-time Ballon d'Or winner heading to Riyadh after penning a reported two-and-a-half-year deal with Al Nassr, Stats Perform looks back on his seismic impact in European club football.

Ronaldo's Premier League emergence

Ronaldo's return to the Premier League may not have gone to plan – the 37-year-old only scored once in the competition this term before an explosive interview with Piers Morgan led to his Old Trafford exit.

However, the three-time Premier League winner certainly made his mark in England, scoring 103 goals in 236 top-flight games for United.

Having burst onto the scene as a tricky winger, Ronaldo recorded 37 assists in the competition for the Red Devils, who he also helped to their third European title in 2008.

He also claimed his first Ballon d'Or while in Manchester in 2008 after scoring 31 goals in their title-winning 2007-08 campaign – that single-season tally has only been bettered by three players in the competition's history.

Making history with Madrid in LaLiga

Ronaldo may be treated as a legend at United, but it was at Real Madrid where he really made his name as one of football's greatest, becoming Los Blancos' top scorer with 450 goals in all competitions.

Incredibly, the Portugal forward averaged over a goal per game throughout his trophy-laden spell in Spain, hitting the net 311 times in 292 appearances in LaLiga.

Ronaldo scored with 16 per cent of his shots for Madrid, a higher percentage than he managed in the Premier League, Serie A or the Champions League. 

Madrid may be famed for their Champions League accomplishments, but Ronaldo also helped them to two domestic title triumphs in 2011-12 and 2016-17, netting 46 times as Jose Mourinho's side earned 100 points in the first of those campaigns.

Serie A success with the Bianconeri

Given Juventus' failure to win the Champions League, few consider Ronaldo's time in Turin to be an unmitigated success. The raw numbers, however, suggest otherwise.

Managing 81 goals in 98 league appearances for a club in perpetual crisis – with a conversion rate of 15 per cent – tells the story of how Ronaldo evolved in Serie A, honing his game as the ultimate penalty-box forward in his advancing years.

Despite a tumultuous period which saw Maurizio Sarri replace Massimiliano Allegri, Juventus stretched their incredible run of Scudetto success to nine consecutive seasons.

That stint ended in Ronaldo's final full campaign at the Allianz Stadium, though he still finished as Serie A's top scorer with 29 goals. 

The Champions League master

For those who believe Ronaldo to be the greatest to have played the game, the Portugal forward's exploits in the Champions League are always the crucial factor, the trump card.

Ronaldo's record of 140 goals in the competition is unmatched, though his great rival Lionel Messi (129) may have something to say about that if he declines to follow his fellow forward's lead in exiting Europe.

Averaging almost a goal contribution per game (180 in 183 appearances), Ronaldo won an astonishing 115 games in the Champions League, lifting the trophy five times – a joint-high tally.

As Madrid cemented their status as European masters by winning three consecutive titles between the 2015-16 and 2017-18 seasons, Ronaldo top-scored in the competition every season, cementing his legacy as the ultimate big-game player.

Cristiano Ronaldo finally put an end to speculation regarding his next destination on Friday as he completed his anticipated move to Saudi Pro League side Al Nassr.

Manchester United parted ways with the Portugal superstar by mutual consent in November, despite the 37-year-old having over six months to run on his contract at Old Trafford.

That move came after an explosive interview in which Ronaldo declared he felt "betrayed" by United and expressed his lack of respect for manager Erik ten Hag and former boss Ralf Rangnick.

The World Cup appeared the immediate priority for Ronaldo, but he offered little with just one group-stage strike against Ghana as Portugal failed to progress beyond the last eight. 

Despite Ronaldo unsuccessfully pushing to join a Champions League club prior to the start of the season, a return to Europe's elite competition still appeared possible with Chelsea, Bayern Munich and Sporting CP linked.

Major League Soccer was also touted as another avenue for the five-time Ballon d'Or winner, though he opted for a move to the Middle East as he left Europe for the first time in his remarkable career.

Here, Stats Perform explores why some potential destinations for Ronaldo did not come to fruition.

Major League Soccer

With the MLS season recently concluding, a move to North America would have presented Ronaldo with a clean slate for 2023 and boosted the profile of the league ahead of the 2026 World Cup taking place in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

Ronaldo required a Designated Player spot for any franchise looking to make a move, eliminating several clubs from the equation, but David Beckham's Inter Miami were attributed with a strong interest.

However, as speculation grows over the Herons making a move for Lionel Messi, could Beckham and Miami really afford both superstars?

 

Sporting CP

Ronaldo's return to United was not as successful as fans would have wanted, but a fairytale reunion with boyhood club Sporting was still repeatedly suggested.

The prospect of Champions League football next season may have appealed to the forward, though Ruben Amorim's side will be playing in the Europa League this term after dropping out of UEFA's premier club competition.

While a storied move home may have interested the romantics, the links became increasingly frustrating for Amorim, who angrily responded to such questions during the World Cup.

"Ronaldo was in Qatar, they had the opportunity to ask him and they didn't. I've been asked 500 times and I already answered," he said after a December 19 win over Braga.

Bayern Munich

Reports suggested Julian Nagelsmann held talks with Ronaldo's agent Jorge Mendes, though Bayern Munich chief executive Oliver Kahn never envisaged the former Real Madrid star moving to Germany.

"We briefly discussed Ronaldo at Bayern and Dortmund probably did too," Kahn told BILD. "We also see the big picture of the Bundesliga.

"Of course, superstars like Ronaldo are an important factor in attracting attention to the league. He is one of the greatest of the last decade. But we quickly dismissed that."

Chelsea

Chelsea were repeatedly named as contenders to snatch the attacker from Premier League rivals United in a bid to appease new owner Todd Boehly's desire for a marquee Blues signing.

Thomas Tuchel was reportedly against the proposal – though his dismissal as Chelsea head coach earlier this year could have provided the catalyst for a change of heart at Stamford Bridge.

But Graham Potter and Boehly opted against a move with a plethora of attacking talent to call upon, while the Blues also appear strong favourites to sign breakout RB Leipzig star Christopher Nkunku.

 

Napoli

Top of Serie A and heading into the World Cup break on the back of an 11-match winning run, Napoli were touted as potential suitors for Ronaldo, who dominated the Italian top flight during three years with Juventus.

Striker Victor Osimhen has been linked with a move to United, but Napoli executives want to focus on the future – despite Ronaldo's remarkable output in the Champions League.

"We wanted to invest in a young team," Napoli sporting director Cristiano Giuntoli told Corriere dello Sport.

He later added to Sky Sport Italia: "We never really talked about Ronaldo. In football you get nowhere with ifs and buts. We are happy with the squad we have, we are confident this is a competitive team."

Atletico Madrid

He couldn't have, could he? After scoring 311 times in LaLiga for Real Madrid, a move to fierce rivals Atletico would have represented one of the most memorable transfers in history.

While some at the Civitas Metropolitano may have flirted with the idea of a seismic move for their archnemesis, coach Diego Simeone was never interested.

He told Tigo Sports: "Ronaldo is an absolute benchmark for Real Madrid and I would not see [Martin] Palermo ever playing for River, just as I wouldn't see [Juan Roman] Riquelme or [Ariel] Ortega playing for Boca. There are situations that are very clear."

 

Cristiano Ronaldo has finally found his next club.

The five-time Ballon d'Or winner joined Al Nassr on Friday, signing a reported two-and-a-half-year contract well over a month after agreeing his acrimonious exit from Manchester United.

News of a lucrative contract offer from the Saudi Pro League club initially broke during the World Cup, with Ronaldo said to be in line to earn £62million (€69.9m) per season.

The 37-year-old, perhaps distracted by the ongoing transfer saga, scored just once in Qatar as Portugal bowed out in the last 16. He now leaves Europe for the first time in his storied career.

Al Nassr are not a renowned name but have enjoyed huge success in Saudi Arabia, so what can Ronaldo expect as he heads to Riyadh?

Who are Al Nassr?

Formed in 1955 and winning the Saudi top flight in their very first season, Al Nassr have nine championships to their name – second only to Al Hilal's 15.

Indeed, Al Nassr and Al Hilal have between them won eight of the past nine Pro League titles, although Al Hilal have taken the most recent three in a row.

The two sides contest the Riyadh derby, with the shares spoiled after a 2-2 draw in the most recent edition on December 26.

Ronaldo's new team-mates

Saudi Arabia's entirely Saudi-based World Cup squad included six Al Nassr players, with Sultan Al Ghannam and Abdulelah Al Amri appearing as substitutes in the shock defeat of Lionel Messi's Argentina.

But the better known players in the Al Nassr squad are likely those from foreign shores.

Cameroon's World Cup star Vincent Aboubakar is joined by former Brazil midfielder Luiz Gustavo, along with three-cap Argentina international Pity Martinez.

Goalkeeper David Ospina has represented Colombia at several World Cups, as well as turning out for Arsenal and Napoli, while Talisca was once a highly rated young forward at Benfica and has scored regularly at Al Nassr.

South Korea's left-back Kim Jin-su is out on loan.

Potential debut date

Ronaldo has already missed the derby with Al Hilal, while Saturday's clash with Al Khaleej will come too soon.

The legendary striker could be in the line-up against Al Tai in Al Nassr's first match of 2023 on Thursday, however.

Al Shabab lead the Pro League by two points ahead of second-placed Al Nassr, with a top-of-the-table clash lined up for January 13.

LaLiga leaders Barcelona return to action on Saturday looking to pick up where they left off before the World Cup and end 2023 on a high.

The Blaugrana won each of their last five league games prior to Qatar 2022, leaving them top of the table during the break.

They will be confident of making it six in a row this weekend.

While local derbies can be particularly difficult to predict, Barcelona's duels with Espanyol tend to go one way.

A one-sided derby

This isn't a derby that's been defined by unpredictability in recent years.

Barcelona haven't lost any of their past 24 league meetings with Espanyol (W18 D6), which is their longest run without a defeat against them in the top flight.

Their last such defeat was almost 14 years ago in February 2009 (1-2), a game that the current Barca coach Xavi played in.

Of course, that defeat was a massive shock, with former Barca player Ivan de la Pena scoring both goals as Espanyol won a league game at Camp Nou for the first time in 27 years.

Before the game, there was a whopping 42-point abyss between the two teams, with Barca top and Espanyol bottom – the latter went on to finish 10th.

But since then, Barcelona have won all 12 home games against Espanyol in LaLiga, keeping 10 clean sheets in the process.

In fact, they have won more games at home against Espanyol in LaLiga than against any other opponent (G87 W69 D9 L9).

The form guide

There is every reason to expect Barca's streak in the derby to remain intact this weekend when you take into consideration the two teams' pre-World Cup form.

Barca collected 37 points from 14 games before the season paused (W12 D1 L1), equalling their second-highest tally at this stage of a LaLiga season (also 37 points in 2010-11) and trailing only the 2012-13 and 2013-14 campaigns when they collected 40 points (W13 D1 in both).

By contrast, Espanyol have won only two of their first 14 games this term (D6 L6), equalling their lowest tally of wins at this stage of the season in the top flight (along with eight other instances).

Neither of those two victories came in the five games leading up to the season's hiatus, and Espanyol could only scrape past fourth-tier Atletico Paso 1-0 in the Copa del Rey last week thanks to an 80th-minute winner.

Xavi's miserly defence

Of course, we tend to associate Barca with attacking brilliance, and they've certainly shown signs of that this season.

But defensively they've also been sound.

Xavi's men have already kept 11 clean sheets in LaLiga this season, which is the most of all teams across the top five European leagues.

This is also Barca's biggest clean sheet tally after 14 league matches in a LaLiga season this century.

But they are not entirely bulletproof.

If Espanyol are to breach the Barca defence, their strategy may revolve around an intense start as the Blaugrana have conceded a league-high 60 per cent of their goals this season in the opening 15 minutes of matches (3/5).

Barca's Lewy boost

Espanyol will have prepared for this game confident that Robert Lewandowski's suspension would at least aid their chances of springing a surprise. 

That was until Friday, anyway, when it was revealed the Polish striker would in fact be available.

Lewandowski was sent off for two bookings against Osasuna in Barca's last pre-World Cup game, while a gesture he made while leaving the pitch earnt him an additional two-match ban.

But a "precautionary measure against the suspension imposed by the Court of Arbitration for Sport" means a final decision on the suspension has been delayed, freeing the Poland star – who has scored 13 goals in 14 league outings this term – to face Espanyol.

The task awaiting Espanyol just got even tougher, and as such the importance of Joselu increased again for Los Pericos.

The striker has been involved in 50 per cent of Espanyol's goals in LaLiga this season (8/16), with Borja Iglesias (eight) the only Spanish player to score more than his seven.

He would surely trade all of those in for a decisive impact in the derby, however, with Barca's remarkable record making them overwhelming favourites once again.

Manchester United are on the search for a new striker in the January transfer window as they seek a replacement for Cristiano Ronaldo and a solution to their goalscoring issues.

While United may have put three past a poor Nottingham Forest side on their return to Premier League action, they have struggled to find the net in general this season.

With 23 goals in 15 matches, at an average of 1.53 per game, 10 Premier League teams are scoring at the same or a better rate than Erik ten Hag's side.

That means half the division are more prolific than United, including the likes of Brentford (1.56 goals per game), Fulham (1.69) and Brighton and Hove Albion (1.73).

Indeed, even in that routine victory over Forest earlier this week, United's profligacy was clear to see prior to eventually killing off the contest with their third goal.

"We have to score more goals," manager Ten Hag said. "We created so many chances and it takes us until just before the end to score the third goal. 

"You can see Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford are goalscorers; Bruno Fernandes scores goals. We have a lot of players who can score, but we have to be ruthless."

The Magnificent Seven

"Ruthless" is the key word there. Ten Hag has made it clear he is not after a creative player, or indeed a wide forward who chips in with, say, 10 to 15 goals a season.

What Ten Hag and United need is, as Michael Owen pointed out on Tuesday, "a Ruud van Nistelrooy, a Robin van Persie, a Wayne Rooney who scores 30-plus goals a season".

Finding one of those players is easier said than done, of course, not least in the notoriously difficult-to-negotiate January window.

Taking all competitions into account, seven players from clubs across Europe's top five leagues hit that magic 30 mark last season, led by Robert Lewandowski (50).

It is safe to assume United will not consider negotiating for Lewandowski in January; the same being true for Karim Benzema (44), Kylian Mbappe (39) and Mohamed Salah (31).

Christopher Nkunku (35) would have been a far more attainable target had Chelsea not got there first, with a fee reportedly having already been agreed with RB Leipzig for a future transfer to the Blues.

That leaves Wissam Ben Yedder and Ciro Immobile as Europe's only other 30-plus-goal forwards from last term, having both scored 32 times for Monaco and Lazio respectively.

Ben Yedder and Immobile are still netting regularly this season, averaging a goal every other game, though both turn 33 next year and have no English football experience.

As stated by Ten Hag, who has been honest in his assessment of United's squad since arriving in July, any signings must "match the sporting and financial criteria".

Negotiating fees for under-contract duo Ben Yedder and Immobile, and tying them down to deals lasting into their mid-30s, would certainly not tick the latter box.

So what United actually need to find, then, is a prolific goalscorer who is on the right side of 30, attainable and ready to hit the ground running. What could be easier?

 

Who needs Vlahovic when you can have... Mitrovic?

There is one player – a surprise name on the face of it, perhaps – that ticks every possible box. Yes, that's right – Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic.

Only Erling Haaland (1.3), Lewandowski and Mbappe (both 0.95) are averaging more goals per game among Europe's elite this season than Mitrovic (0.77).

It puts the Serbia international in a similar band to Marcus Thuram (0.76), Nkunku (0.74) and Victor Osimhen (0.71), each of whom have been regularly linked with United.

While it would be easy to dismiss those figures as misleading (he averages 0.31 goals across his Premier League career), he is a player very much for the here and now.

Mitrovic's 10 Premier League goals have come from an expected goals (xG) return of 8.6 – only three others have a higher figure – highlighting his prolific nature.

To put that differential of 1.4 into some context, United's leading scorer Rashford stands at 0.3 for the season – far from the ruthless finisher United crave.

That is not a slight on Rashford, who with 10 goals for the season has double the number of any other team-mate. Rashford is not the problem; a lack of centre-forward is.

Of course, for a club as big as United there is always an added onus to recruit marquee names, especially following the departure of a certain CR7.

That explains links with Enzo Fernandez, Dusan Vlahovic and Cody Gakpo, who starred at the World Cup with the Netherlands but has since agreed to join Liverpool.

A persuasive case can be put forward as to why any of those players still on the market could make the difference for United in the second half of the season.

Again, though, Ten Hag wants a "ruthless" striker. So how about the three names perhaps more synonymous with United and a January move than any other players?

 

The supporters' picks

Goncalo Ramos was still relatively unknown prior to the World Cup, but his hat-trick for Portugal against Switzerland in the last 16 changed all that.

Let us not forget, either, that Ramos was propelled into the side to replace Ronaldo up top. As the Primeira Liga's leading scorer this term, he is a young goalscorer with pedigree.

The aforementioned Osimhen has scored 10 goals in 14 games for Napoli this season, making it clear why many supporters have urged United to make a move.

Mohammed Kudus, too, is enjoying a good time of things at Ajax, and Ten Hag's previous business suggests he favours players with links to his home country.

There are certainly options out there for United, but whether the club can be shrewd enough in landing Ten Hag's top target, or targets, in a limited market is another question.

Yet for all the talk of chasing a star of Qatar 2022 or a possible star of the future, United may well be better off shopping closer to home to fulfil Ten Hag's wish.

As a year like no other in football draws to a close, a feast of Premier League action is on offer and presents a chance to pick up some crucial fantasy points.

With others potentially focused on New Year's resolutions or shifting their turkey-belly from Christmas Day, there is an opportunity to get ahead of the curve with your fantasy line-up before rivals catch on.

Navigating such a congested fixture schedule is never easy, made even more problematic by the late returns of many players following the World Cup in Qatar and the likely rotation on the mind of managers across the league.

Fortunately, Stats Perform is here to help, delving into the Opta data to find four players who could be shrewd additions for your team ahead of the latest round of fixtures.

Kepa Arrizabalaga (Nottingham Forest v Chelsea)

The Chelsea stopper is enjoying a rejuvenation in Graham Potter's side this season, reclaiming a starting spot and picking up four clean sheets in seven Premier League appearances this term.

Four saves in the midweek win against Bournemouth helped Chelsea return to winning ways in the Premier League and he will certainly fancy his chances of another clean sheet against a Nottingham Forest side who have scored just 11 times this season – only Wolves (10) have fewer goals.

An average of four saves per 90 minutes this season and 0.62 clean sheets per 90 both stand as the Spaniard's highest in a single Premier League campaign.

Eddie Nketiah (Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal)

A World Cup injury to Gabriel Jesus threatened to derail Arsenal's push for the Premier League title but Eddie Nketiah proved his worth in the comeback victory against West Ham, scoring in the 3-1 win.

Nketiah has six goals in his last eight Premier League starts, including in each of the last two, while his record in all competitions stands at 11 goals in 11 starts for the Gunners from just 16 shots on target.

Since the start of the 2021-22 season, no Arsenal player has a better minutes-per-goal ratio than Nketiah (176).

Miguel Almiron (Newcastle United v Leeds United)

Newcastle United are mounting a serious push to qualify for continental football next season and Miguel Almiron is playing a significant part, already scoring as many goals this term (nine) as he did in his four previous campaigns combined (nine goals in 110 games).

Against Leeds United, he could become only the fourth different player for Newcastle to be directly involved in a Premier League goal in seven consecutive league fixtures – where he would join Andy Cole, Alan Shearer and Ruel Fox with the accolade.

Leeds have conceded 29 Premier League goals this season, the fourth-worst defensive record in the division behind Southampton (30), Nottingham Forest (33) and Bournemouth (34).

Ollie Watkins (Tottenham v Aston Villa)

Unai Emery suffered defeat for the first time as Aston Villa boss on Boxing Day against Liverpool but can turn to Ollie Watkins, who scored in the 3-1 loss, for inspiration ahead of the trip to face an under-pressure Tottenham.

The striker has scored in each of his last two away games against Spurs and could become the first away player to score in each of his first three visits to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the Premier League.

Since the start of the 2020-21 Premier League campaign, Watkins is the third-highest scoring Englishman in the top-flight with 28 goals – only Jamie Vardy (31) and Harry Kane (53) have more.

There is perhaps no sporting debate that captures the imagination like that concerning the identity of football's greatest ever player.

The incredible goalscoring feats of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo put them at the centre of the discussion, but what about the greats of yesteryear? 

Does the cunning of Diego Maradona or the ingenuity of Johan Cruyff make one of them the best to have played the world's most popular sport?

The ultimate reference for all those iconic players, however, is Pele. The only player to have won three World Cups, the ultimate personification of "o jogo bonito".

With tributes flooding in after the Brazil icon passed away at the age of 82, Stats Perform delves into the Selecao star's incredible career, asking how it compares to those of the game's other greats.

Pele: The World Cup's finest

While any debate over the greatest player of all time will always be subjective, nobody can deny Pele his status as the ultimate World Cup legend.

His introduction to the global stage came at the 1958 tournament in Sweden, where Brazil exercised the demons of 1950 – when they lost the final on home soil to Uruguay in what became known as the "Maracanazo" – to clinch their first title.

A 17-year-old Pele missed Brazil's first two games at the tournament, but the Santos youngster quickly made the Selecao's number 10 shirt his own after coming in for a 2-0 win over the Soviet Union.

From there, he went from strength to strength, scoring his first World Cup goal against Wales before helping himself to a hat-trick against France in the semi-finals.

As Brazil overcame the hosts 5-2 in a thrilling final, Pele – at the age of 17 years and 249 days – scored twice. Only one other teenager has ever netted in a World Cup final – Kylian Mbappe in 2018.

 

As if one outstanding World Cup campaign was not enough, Pele was key to further Selecao triumphs in 1962 and 1970 – assuming a talismanic role in what many consider to be the greatest international team in history at the latter tournament.

Pele's tally of six assists in Mexico remains the highest tally recorded at a single World Cup since records began four years earlier, and his nonchalant lay-off for Carlos Alberto to finish off a flowing team move in Brazil's final win over Italy remains one of the most iconic moments in the tournament's history.

While modern-day detractors may point to Pele's failure to test himself in Europe, his incredible record on the grandest stage of all dictates that he is remembered among the very best, and there can be no doubt as to his unmatched World Cup legacy.

Johan Cruyff: The innovator

If Pele's legacy can be measured in World Cup accomplishments, Cruyff's must be examined in a very different way.

Cruyff's unbelievable tally of 36 chances created at the 1974 World Cup may be a single-tournament record, but it was not enough for the Netherlands to avoid the first of their three final defeats at the competition.

Eight Eredivisie titles, three European Cups and one LaLiga triumph as a player does not exactly do justice to the career of football's great innovator, the man considered responsible for "total football" and by extension, every free-flowing Barcelona or Ajax team that has followed.

If Pele's is best remembered as the World Cup's greatest player, perhaps Cruyff deserves the title of football's finest pioneer.

Diego Maradona: The individualist 

No conversation about football's greatest could be complete without a mention of Maradona, the man who almost single-handedly carried Argentina to football's greatest prize with a perfect blend of skill and cunning.

Astonishingly, Maradona claimed five goals and five assists as Argentina won the 1986 World Cup – a feat no other player has accomplished since detailed data collection began in 1966.

Maradona's quarter-final brace against England, perhaps the most iconic double in history, encapsulated his on-pitch personality perfectly – a mischievous first goal being followed by a truly remarkable second.

Maradona's tendency to carry unfancied sides to success was replicated on the club stage, with his two Serie A triumphs with Napoli earning him a level of adulation that will perhaps never be matched.

A beaten finalist in 1990, not even El Diego could match Pele's World Cup exploits, but the Argentine carved out a reputation as football's finest individualist. 

 

Cristiano Ronaldo: The big-game player

Like Cruyff, neither of the final two players on our list have made their greatest impact at the World Cup, but the incredible goalscoring feats of Ronaldo ensure his place among the game's legends.

In the Champions League – arguably the true pinnacle of the modern game – no player can match Ronaldo's total of 140 goals.

Ronaldo – who scored his 700th goal in club football earlier this season – has also lifted the Champions League trophy on five occasions – a tally no other player has bettered.

The 37-year-old started off the 2022 World Cup by becoming the first male player to net in five different editions of the tournament, though he ultimately ended it in disappointment, making just 10 touches after coming on as a substitute in Portugal's quarter-final defeat to Morocco.

He has been the ultimate big-game player. Whether he is anymore is clearly up for debate. 

Lionel Messi: The Magician 

While some may prefer the efficiency and athleticism of Ronaldo, there is no sight in modern football as joyous as that of Messi slaloming through panicked defences.

Seven Ballon d'Or wins tells you all you need to know, Messi's army of fans may say, while Pep Guardiola's revolutionary Barcelona side – considered by many as the best team to ever take to the field – was built to accommodate the Argentine's incredible mix of elite finishing, dribbling and passing skills. 

 

Until the last two years, the only major blot on Messi's career was a perceived failure to replicate the feats of Maradona, with the expectations of the Argentinian public often seeming to weigh heavily upon the shoulders of the diminutive attacker.

However, having helped the Albiceleste end a 28-year wait to win the Copa America in 2021, Messi then contributed seven goals and three assists to mirror Maradona's achievement of leading Argentina to World Cup glory, with the Paris Saint-Germain forward's campaign in Qatar already regarded as one of the greatest in the tournament's rich history.

While the sight of Messi lifting the World Cup trophy at the Lusail Stadium caused some to declare any debate regarding football's greatest player to be over, the forward's age dictates he will not get the chance to equal Pele's feats on the game's grandest stage.

Everyone has a different opinion on what makes a player the greatest in history, be it their style, their goal record, or their impact on subsequent generations.

The role of football's greatest tournament will always be pivotal, however, and on that basis, Pele will always have a place among the legends of the game.

Pele was football's ultimate fox in the box, a player who dealt in quantity as much as quality, whose eye-popping career statistics alone marked him out as one of the greats.

Footage is scarce of peak Pele, the player who emerged as a teenage sensation in the late 1950s and shone on the world stage for almost 15 years. That which is available shows a nimble forward with a devastating finish.

The Brazil great became as globally revered as The Beatles and Muhammad Ali, who became peers of his, and Pele's death at the age of 82 has sent a shudder through the sporting world.

Those who saw him in action speak of a player who took football to a new level, leaving tormented defences in his wake as he set record after record.

Here, Stats Perform has picked out five games that underlined the greatness of the man born Edson Arantes do Nascimento.

 

1958: World Cup semi-final, Brazil 5-2 France

The World Cup would never be the same after the 17-year-old Pele took the tournament in Sweden by storm.

He hit a hat-trick in the semi-final against France, feeding off scraps for his first two strikes, both of which came from close range, before rattling in a stunning third.

Pele took a pass in his stride on the edge of the penalty area, and as the ball looped up he sent a rasping strike from 18 yards into the bottom-left corner.

He would hit seven hat-tricks for Brazil across his career, but this was the first, carrying the Selecao through to a clash with the hosts.

1958: World Cup final, Brazil 5-2 Sweden

After the semi-final heroics, it turned out that Pele had a pretty good encore to come.

Vava's first-half double put Brazil 2-1 ahead, but the final will be largely remembered for Pele's majestic strike that increased that lead early in the second half, when he flicked the ball over a defender at close quarters in the penalty area before volleying past goalkeeper Kalle Svensson. It was pure artistry, a teenage master at work.

It made Pele the youngest scorer in a World Cup final, at 17 years and 249 days old, and for good measure the teenager put the seal on victory with a late header, completing a double for a tournament haul of six goals.

Just Fontaine's incredible haul of 13 goals for France made him the top scorer, but Pele took the plaudits and Brazil savoured a first World Cup triumph.

1962: Intercontinental Cup final, second leg, Benfica 2-5 Santos

Injury cruelly meant Pele only played a small role in Brazil's successful World Cup defence, but three months down the line, in September and October 1962, he served up a dish of his world-beating best.

A clinical double at home in the first leg gave Santos a 3-2 advantage against Benfica in the Intercontinental Cup, a clash of the reigning Copa Libertadores and European Cup champions.

Pele saved his best for the second leg in Lisbon, grabbing a hat-trick against a Benfica defence who had little answer to his dribbling, pace and power. At the other end of the field, Eusebio could not match Pele.

Benfica goalkeeper Costa Pereira accounted for the 5-2 drubbing at the Estadio da Luz by lauding the prowess of the chief tormentor, saying he had been "undone by someone who was not born on the same planet as the rest of us".

Team-mate Antonio Simoes told Portuguese publication Sol in 2022: "Even today, when people ask me who is the best player I have seen in my entire life, I answer that it is Pele. I've never seen anyone do things like he did. I was dazzled. Benfica was the best team in Europe. But Santos was the best in the world."

1963, Roca Cup, second leg, Brazil 5-2 Argentina

Pele fired another hat-trick as Brazil retained the Roca Cup with a statement victory in Rio.

This was a competition contested sporadically by the great South American rivals, and a 3-2 win for Argentina at the Morumbi stadium in Sao Paulo had given them the edge heading into the second leg at the sprawling Maracana.

Reports said a crowd of around 130,000 attended the game, and Pele came up trumps with a hat-trick, including two penalties after he was felled each time.

Pele had made his Brazil debut against Argentina six years previously in an earlier Roca Cup clash, and now into his early twenties he remained the star man for the two-time world champions.

Brazil's 4-1 lead after 90 minutes meant they were ahead on aggregate, but curiously the game still went to extra time, with both sides having a win apiece, with the overall score only counting after they split the extra period 1-1.

1970: World Cup final, Brazil 4-1 Italy

Injury scuppered Pele's hopes of making an impact at the 1966 World Cup in England, but four years later he was back and eager to help Brazil reclaim the Jules Rimet Trophy.

The crowning moment of his career and this golden age of Brazilian football would come at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, with Pele to the forefront in a thumping win over the Azzurri.

Brazil won every game they played at this World Cup, including a group-stage victory over defending champions England, while Italy knocked out West Germany in the semi-finals.

Come the title match, Pele headed the opener for Brazil, climbing astonishingly high at the far post, and he later nodded the ball down for Jairzinho to plunder their third.

Brazil's piece de resistance in the final was Carlos Alberto's majestic strike that put the seal on the win, with an exceptional team move climaxing with Pele almost casually laying the ball into the path of the captain who thundered a shot past Enrico Albertosi.

Pele would never play another World Cup game, and he could hardly have gone out on a greater high.

Eyebrows were raised when Liverpool made the first big move ahead of the imminent January transfer window.

Cody Gakpo had been strongly linked with a move to their old rivals down the East Lancs Road, but instead of Manchester United, the 23-year-old Dutchman will be playing his football at Anfield after sealing a move to Merseyside worth a reported initial £37million (€42m).

One of the other reasons it came as a surprise was all the talk around Liverpool's transfer activity being based on the midfield, an area where Jurgen Klopp has struggled for consistency both in terms of performances and availability.

However, with attacking pair Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz both out of action for the next two or three months at least, Klopp has focused on adding to his forward ranks instead, and on paper Gakpo is an interesting choice.

So, why have Liverpool turned to him in their bid to kick-start a disappointing campaign?

Dominating the Eredivisie

Gakpo settled well in the Dutch top-flight after coming through the ranks at PSV.

After making his debut as an 18-year-old in February 2018 against Feyenoord, he improved for goals year-on-year, eventually making 159 appearances, scoring 55 times and recording 50 assists for the club.

But it's since the start of the 2021-22 season that Gakpo has found another level, with no player having more goal involvements in the Eredivisie in that time than his 46 (21 goals, 25 assists). In fact, no other player in Europe's top 10 leagues has tallied both 20+ goals and 20+ assists over the same period.

Only Ajax's Dusan Tadic (44 involvements) comes close among Eredivisie players, having played seven more games than Gakpo (48 to 41).

His form earned him a spot in Louis van Gaal's Netherlands squad for Qatar 2022, where Gakpo became the first Dutch player to score in his first three World Cup games.

He did so from a centre-forward position, but Gakpo has primarily featured from the left of the attack for PSV, and that could be where he gets most of his minutes at Liverpool.

How he compares to Liverpool's attacking options

Despite playing as something resembling more of a classic number nine for the Oranje in Qatar, Gakpo was deployed from the left in the majority of his appearances for PSV this season.

But the fact he's been able to operate in different roles for PSV and the Netherlands will have been another tick for Klopp, who could opt to use Gakpo centrally if needed once Diaz and Jota return.

In the meantime, expect to see him on the left, with Mohamed Salah on the right and Darwin Nunez down the middle.

Both will look forward to playing with someone who can provide ammunition from a wide role, with all 14 of Gakpo's assists in games he has started this season for PSV coming from him playing on the left.

But beyond his output, Gakpo looks a good stylistic fit for the Reds. Quick, dynamic and good on the ball, he possesses the ability to both beat his marker and stretch play.

Salah is, of course, Liverpool's key man in attack, but Gakpo's arrival should relieve some of the burden on the Egyptian.

Of Liverpool's forwards, only Salah has been more creative than Gakpo this term, creating 2.2 chances from open play per 90 minutes in the Premier League, while the Dutchman has managed 2.0 per 90 in the Eredivisie.

Gakpo actually averaged more shots per 90 than Salah (4.1 to 3.6), though that's perhaps to be expected given he was PSV's talisman, and the comparative strength of the Eredivisie in relation to the Premier League should also be taken into account.

Nevertheless, it highlights Gakpo's positive mentality and the sort of attacking intent he should bring to a frontline that has been erratic this season.

Having the right mentality can be a vital element when it comes to thriving under Klopp at Liverpool considering the intensity they play at when at 100 per cent. That goes beyond chance creation and shot frequency, though.

Perhaps one of the main attributes that attracted Liverpool to Gakpo is this regard is his ability to win the ball high up the pitch, a key part of their high pressing approach.

Gakpo has won the ball in the attacking third 0.8 times per 90 this season in the league, more than any of Diaz (0.6), Salah, Roberto Firmino (both 0.5), Nunez (0.4) or Jota (0.0).

Can Gakpo fill old shoes?

One player who particularly excelled in such an intense role for Liverpool was Sadio Mane, who left the club for Bayern Munich at the end of last season.

Many have argued that one of the key reasons for the Reds' inconsistent form this campaign is the absence of Mane, with Diaz and Nunez both considerably different players to the Senegal star.

Gakpo could hardly be considered a Doppelganger either, though aspects of his style can be compared to Mane, who won the ball back in the attacking third 0.7 times per 90 in the Premier League last season.

The Dutchman's numbers this year are almost all ahead of Mane's from last year, though again the strength of both leagues must be taken into account.

Mane averaged 2.7 dribbles per 90 with a 54.7 per cent success rate. His frequency of 0.3 big chances created per 90 was way down on Gakpo's 1.0 average this term, while the former Red tallied 3.1 shots each game.

He scored 16 goals in 34 league games last season before departing Anfield, but provided just two assists, so in Gakpo Liverpool arguably have someone more adept at being able to both score and provide.

The pressure will be on Gakpo straight away as there is a gaping hole on the left of Klopp's attack until Diaz and Jota return, but if his career trajectory and numbers are anything to go by, it's reasonable to think he can have a similar impact to the one Diaz had when the Colombian arrived from Porto last January.

It is, at the very least, a statement of intent as Liverpool look to recover their season.

For most fantasy leagues, Week 17 brings the end of the campaign.

The number of players traditionally held out of action to protect against injury in the raft of games with no playoff implications in Week 18 means it is too risky to hold fantasy championships on the final week of the regular season.

Hence, most fantasy title games will take place this week, and those involved may spend the days prior to the upcoming kick-offs agonising over which players to put in their line-up.

Often players who appeared unlikely fantasy stars at the start of the year emerge as league winners, and here Stats Perform picks out four such players and a defense whose contributions could decide the destination of fantasy titles. 

Quarterback: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

The dynamism Fields brings as a runner always gave him potential fantasy upside and he has harnessed that spectacularly in 2022. Fields had been a top-10 fantasy quarterback every week since Week 6 before he was held in check by the Buffalo Bills last Saturday.

While the Lions are in the mix for a playoff spot, their defense, which gave up an astonishing 320 rushing yards to the Carolina Panthers last week, is not well-equipped to slow down Fields, who should be expected to bounce back and deliver a championship-game tilting display.

Running Back: Brian Robinson Jr, Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns

Robinson was frustrated by the San Francisco 49ers' outstanding defense last time out, but he is unlikely to meet much resistance from a Cleveland defense that is allowing the seventh-most yards per rush (4.87) in the NFL.

Between Weeks 12 and 15, only Miles Sanders (5.98) averaged more yards per carry than Robinson (5.69) among running backs. He hit a large speed bump in the Bay Area but, back in the friendly confines of FedEx Field against an opponent already eliminated from playoff contention, Robinson is in a good position to get back on track in a must-win game for the Commanders.

Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks

Wilson's production was submarined by the struggles of namesake Zach Wilson against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.

In a game the Jets cannot afford to lose, they will have Mike White back at quarterback in Seattle, setting Wilson up for a bounce-back game against an opposing defense that is very amenable to passing attacks.

Since Week 12, Wilson has racked up 24 receptions for a first down, tied for the third-most in the NFL. The Seahawks have allowed the seventh-most passing plays of at least 20 yards (49) and, despite possessing some talented rookie cornerbacks, do not have the means to stop White and Wilson rekindling their rapport.

Tight End: Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Engram received one of the more modest deals during the Jaguars' free agency splurge, but his signing has paid dividends over the last three games, in which only two players – Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown – can claim to have tallied more receiving yards than his 337.

The Texans are playing hard down the stretch and claimed only their second win of the season in Tennessee last weekend, but their defense is still the 10th-worst by yards per pass play allowed. Look for Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence to take advantage with an aerial attack that will heavily involve Engram.

Defense/Special Teams: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Despite being very inexperienced in the secondary, the Chiefs' defense sits an impressive 11th in the NFL by yards per play and, as Kansas City look to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills in the race for the one seed in the AFC, gets a favourable matchup with Denver's dismal offense.

The Broncos' 33.9 per cent Success Rate on offensive plays is the worst in the NFL and a Chiefs defense that has forced the third-most negative plays (103) in the league should relish going against Denver's beleaguered attack.

For years, the New England Patriots have been the model NFL franchise. They have represented consistency, discipline and, above all else, good coaching.

As they head into the final two weeks of the 2022 season, it is hard to think of three qualities that are less representative of this version of Bill Belichick's team.

The Patriots are still in the mix to reach the playoffs this season and may yet sneak is in as a Wild Card for the second successive season.

But their 2021 campaign ended with the Patriots being blown out by the Buffalo Bills, and all the signs point to this season coming to a conclusion in similar circumstances.

Indeed, any veneer of the Patriots as a postseason contender who could cause problems for the AFC's elite has been emphatically removed by a pair of dramatic finishes that both produced agonising defeats for New England.

The Patriots followed up their last-gasp defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders on Jakobi Meyers' inexplicable failed lateral with another heartbreaking finale that saw Rhamondre Stevenson fumble the ball into the arms of the Cincinnati Bengals safety Vonn Bell.

Those successive losses leave the Patriots at 7-8 and, while they are still only a game behind the 8-7 Miami Dolphins, their consecutive failures over the course of the past two weeks in situations where New England would normally thrive are significant enough to raise significant questions about the direction of a team whose success saw them established as the NFL's modern dynasty.

Most of those questions surround the offensive side of the ball. Last year, the Patriots let the draft board come to them and selected quarterback Mac Jones 15th overall, and looked to have themselves a steal as the former Alabama signal-caller impressed in helping New England to the playoffs.

But a failure to adequately replace offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has been succeeded by the bizarre combination of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia, has seen Jones fail to take the next step and the New England attack fail to deliver the explosive production needed to truly compete in a very competitive AFC.

According to Stats Perform's advanced data, Jones has actually been more accurate than his rookie season. He delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball on 80.1 per cent of his pass attempts in 2021, and that rate has increased to 82.1 per cent in 2022.

Yet Jones has thrown just nine touchdowns after tossing 22 last season, his struggles in that regard reflective of the Patriots' overall problems in punching the ball into the endzone, which they have done on only 15.4 per cent of their offensive drives, scoring six points on 26 of their 169 offensive series.

Their inability to turn possessions into touchdowns is in part a product of their lack of investment in the offensive skill positions. The Patriots rank 21st in win rate in pass coverage matchups, the starting wide receiver triumvirate of Meyers, Nelson Agholor and DeVante Parker unsurprisingly failing to consistently create the separation required for Jones to build a productive rapport with his receivers.

The Patriots' offensive issues are as much a failure of scheme as they are of personnel. Theirs is an offensive system that does not play to the strengths of Jones, who came from an offense built around the run-pass option at Alabama.

In 2022, the Patriots have used RPOs on just 1.3 per cent of their pass game snaps, below the average of 2.8. On top of that, they have eschewed the opportunity to capitalise on the influence of a run game defenses have committed at least eight men into the box to guard against 50.1 per cent of the time by leaning on the play-action pass.

The Patriots have used play-action on 9.87 per cent of pass plays, well shy of the league average of 13.3 per cent, limiting the easy buttons for Jones in an attack that is too reliant on the pure dropback game.

New England's offense has run a dropback concept 42 per cent of the time in 2022, nearly 11 percentage points above the average of 31.4 per cent, with the Patriots' primary reply to defensive aggression being a screen game that is overused and predictable. Screen passes have made up 16.3 per cent of New England's passing plays, with the league average being 9.9 per cent.

This static and ineffective offense is not only wasting the second year of Jones' development, but also an excellent season from the Patriots' defense, which ranks sixth with a Success Rate of 36.8 per cent.

The Patriots have two extremely productive pass rushers in Matthew Judon (15.5 sacks) and Josh Uche (11.5) and have pieced things together effectively in the back seven with a mix of rookies, veterans and emerging playmakers such as third-year safety Kyle Dugger, who serves as a tribute to Belichick's ability to develop talent on that side of the ball.

Belichick's defensive genius remains and it is undoubted, but in 2022 it is being cancelled out by the lack of offensive talent and a scheme that does little to elevate its young quarterback.

Jones is obviously a long way from being Tom Brady, and the talent on this Patriots roster is nowhere close to that of the New England teams he helped steer to six Super Bowl titles, yet Belichick has a quarterback and a group that can at be a threat to do damage in the postseason. Belichick excels at making teams into more than the sum of their parts, but it's hard to argue against the fact that, through negligence on the offensive side of the ball, he has missed an opportunity to do that this season.

The Premier League is back, and in many ways, it felt like it never left.

A number of teams picked up where they left off for the World Cup in Monday's action, with leaders Arsenal securing a win against West Ham, though having to come from behind to do so.

Tottenham repeated their party trick of recovering from losing positions, though had to settle for a point at Brentford as Harry Kane kept up his superb Boxing Day record.

Liverpool came back with a hard-fought win at Aston Villa, with teenager Stefan Bajcetic scoring his first goal for the club, while Newcastle United blew away Leicester City in the first half at the King Power Stadium.

Stats Perform takes a closer look at some of the more interesting stats from the day.

Arsenal 3-1 West Ham: Gunners keep up record to fighting back against Hammers

Arsenal went in 1-0 down at Emirates Stadium at half-time after Said Benrahma's penalty, but came from behind thanks to goals from Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Eddie Nketiah. It made it the eighth time they have come from behind to beat West Ham in the Premier League, more than they have against any other opponent.

Hammers boss David Moyes has now lost 15 Premier League away games against Arsenal, equalling Harry Redknapp for the most away defeats against a specific opponent in the competition (15 vs Manchester United).

In the presence of Arsene Wenger for the first time since he left the club, the Gunners won their 10th consecutive Premier League home game, the first time they have managed that since April 2019, while this is the first time they have done so while scoring two or more goals each time since November 2017.

Saka seems to enjoy his Christmas, as he has scored in three consecutive Boxing Day games (also 2020 vs Chelsea and 2021 vs Norwich City), the first Arsenal player to do so since Thierry Henry between 2002 and 2004.

Today was the second time Arsenal playmaker Martin Odegaard has provided two assists in a single Premier League game, with the other coming on Boxing Day last season against Norwich.

Brentford 2-2 Tottenham: Kane puts penalty woe bee-hind him

Following on from his agonising penalty miss in England's World Cup quarter-final loss to France, Kane kept his composure to plant a header past David Raya as Spurs came from 2-0 down to earn a point on Monday.

Kane has now scored more Premier League goals on Boxing Day than any other player in the competition's history (10), finding the net in all seven of his appearances on December 26, while he has also scored against all 32 teams that he has faced in the Premier League – the best such 100 per cent record of any player.

One thing that will concern boss Antonio Conte is that Spurs have conceded the opening goal in each of their last six Premier League matches; their longest run of conceding first in the competition since April 2014 under Tim Sherwood (also six). They have also conceded two or more goals in six consecutive league games for the first time since May 2003.

Brentford are now winless in their last 14 meetings with Spurs in all competitions (D5 L9), since a 2-0 home win in the second tier in March 1948.

Ivan Toney scored the second for the Bees, making him the first English player to register 30 goal involvements (23 goals, 7 assists) in his first 50 Premier League appearances since Jamie Vardy in 2015 (also 30).

Leicester City 0-3 Newcastle United: Almiron continues to fly

It was a fast start by Eddie Howe's men, going 2-0 up against Leicester inside seven minutes – the earliest they had been 2-0 up in a Premier League game since January 2007 (seventh minute v Aston Villa). In fact, it was the earliest a Premier League team had been 2-0 up on Boxing Day since 2010 (Manchester City v Newcastle, after five mins).

Leicester conceded three goals in the first half of a home league game for the first time since September 2003 against Manchester United.

Miguel Almiron picked up where he left off with a superb strike, and has now scored nine goals in 16 games in the Premier League this season, as many as he had scored in his previous four campaigns in the competition combined (nine in 110 appearances).

Newcastle have won six in a row in the Premier League for the first time since 2012 under Alan Pardew. In fact, the Magpies have won 21 Premier League matches in 2022, their most in a single year since 1995, when they won 23.

Howe is only the third English manager to win more than 20 Premier League matches in a single year (21 in 2022 so far), after Kevin Keegan (24 in 1994 and 23 in 1995 with Newcastle) and Roy Evans (22 in 1996 with Liverpool).

Aston Villa 1-3 Liverpool: Robertson provides historic assist

It has not been the best campaign so far for Liverpool, but despite a World Cup being sandwiched in between, this made it three consecutive Premier League wins for the first time since winning their final three games of last season.

Mohamed Salah both scored and assisted in the win, taking his totals to 125 goals and 50 assists for the club in the Premier League. The Egyptian is only the second player with 50+ goals and 50+ assists for the club in the competition, along with Steven Gerrard (120 goals, 92 assists).

Andrew Robertson provided the ball for Salah's fifth-minute opener, his 54th Premier League assist, making him the all-time leading assister among defenders in Premier League history, one more than Leighton Baines (53), while 10 of his assists have come for Salah, with only Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane providing more for him (12 times each).

Bajcetic came off the bench to seal the win, scoring his first Premier League goal for Liverpool aged 18 years and 65 days, making him their third-youngest Premier League scorer, behind only Michael Owen (17y 143d) and Raheem Sterling (17y 317d). Bajcetic is also the second-youngest Spaniard to score in the competition, behind only Cesc Fabregas in 2004 (17y 113d).

Another youth prospect, Ben Doak, came off the bench for Liverpool to make his Premier League debut aged 17 years and 45 days, becoming the youngest ever Scottish player in the competition's history, overtaking Nigel Quashie in 1995 for Queens Park Rangers (17 years, 163 days).

There have been only 15 Premier League matchweeks since the start of the season, but plenty has changed.

Arsenal, rather than Liverpool, look the biggest threat to Manchester City's title defence, while Newcastle United are third ahead of the campaign resuming on Monday.

With the January transfer window also just around the corner, it is time to revisit Stats Perform's ranking of the top 20 most valuable Premier League players, first published back in July.

Inspired by Bill Simmons' NBA trade value list for The Ringer, this is not a ranking of the 20 best Premier League players but perhaps the 20 most difficult to sign.

The following factors have all been considered: how important these players are to their clubs, how replaceable they are, how proven they are, how likely they are to be sold now or in the near future, and how much they would cost if they were to move, influenced by ages and contract situations.

There have been some significant moves since the previous edition...

1. Phil Foden – Manchester City (July rank: 2)

Foden has gone from strength to strength at City this season, excelled for England at the World Cup and, in October, signed a new contract. There is no amount of money in the world that could convince City to sell the 22-year-old.

2. Reece James – Chelsea (12)

James is perhaps Chelsea's equivalent of Foden, their most talented academy graduate and still only 23. He was in excellent form to start the season before sustaining an injury that ruled him out of the World Cup. His big leap is more due to Chelsea's continued commitment to success under new owner Todd Boehly.

3. Erling Haaland – Manchester City (3)

There will always be speculation around Haaland's future, the existence or otherwise of any clauses in his contract and the suggestion he might hope to play for a Real Madrid. But he is not going anywhere just yet and is surely the form player in European football this season.

4. Kevin De Bruyne – Manchester City (4)

De Bruyne is now 31, making him by some distance the oldest player in the top five, and endured a miserable World Cup. However, the signing of Haaland has allowed De Bruyne to again showcase just how good he can be, thriving playing alongside a dead-eyed finisher.

5. Bukayo Saka – Arsenal (14)

The biggest star of Arsenal's resurgence has been Saka, who then also starred at the World Cup and was highly unfortunate to exit the tournament alongside his England team-mates. There will always be suspicions Arsenal will move on their best players eventually, but they are proving right now he does not need to leave to succeed.

6. Bruno Guimaraes – Newcastle United (15)

Another big jump takes Guimaraes up the rankings, having impressively built on his superb start to his Premier League career. Now an all-action number six, rather than a goal-getting box-to-box star, he has been linked to Real Madrid but appears committed to Newcastle, whose rapid progress should keep him happy.

7. Bruno Fernandes – Manchester United (7)

The Premier League's other big-name Bruno only narrowly trails Guimaraes, with Fernandes set to be United's undisputed main man following Cristiano Ronaldo's departure. It would likely only be United's failure to secure Champions League football that would see Fernandes consider his future.

8. Virgil van Dijk – Liverpool (5)

Four of the five Liverpool players on this list have fallen, although Van Dijk remains the Premier League's most valuable centre-back. Whether he is still the division's best at his position could be up for debate, however, with the Reds far less steady in defence this season.

9. Mohamed Salah – Liverpool (6)

Van Dijk's Liverpool team-mate Salah is 30 now and has slipped below his lofty standards at least in league play, scoring only six times so far this season. Liverpool will not rush to move on the winger, but they will be in trouble if this proves to be a sustained decline.

10. Harry Kane – Tottenham (10)

Spurs have seemingly guarded off interest in Kane from elsewhere, with potential suitors City happy with Haaland, but the arrival of Richarlison might also make them less reliant on the England captain than in previous years. He has still scored 12 league goals this season.

11. Trent Alexander-Arnold – Liverpool (1)

Alexander-Arnold has long had detractors outside of Anfield – including Gareth Southgate, who seemingly considers him England's fourth-best right-back. But this is the first time the 24-year-old's Liverpool performances have really been scrutinised. Regardless of Liverpool's stance, rival clubs would likely look elsewhere for a more complete full-back option.

12. Ederson – Manchester City (10)

Ederson slips only due to the number of top players on the rise. He is the most valuable goalkeeper in the Premier League, and City's playing style would have to alter considerably if the Brazil man was ever to depart.

13. Alisson – Liverpool (11)

Alisson is perhaps a better all-round goalkeeper than his Brazil team-mate, but he does not have the City star's same passing range, making him ever so slightly less valuable. In his 2022-23 form, Liverpool will not be looking for a change.

14. Darwin Nunez – Liverpool (17)

Nunez is one of the more difficult Premier League stars to gauge, missing some huge chances and sitting out matches through suspension but still netting at an impressive rate and showing signs of his enormous potential. He looks likely to be Liverpool's main man in years to come.

15. Son Heung-min – Tottenham (8)

Son has scored in only a single Premier League match this season, albeit he netted a hat-trick against Leicester City, and this first real dip in form could eventually see the forward lose his place at Tottenham given the competition for places.

16. William Saliba – Arsenal (new entry)

The first new entry is perhaps the Premier League's outstanding defender this season. Saliba has clearly benefited from three years away from Arsenal on loan, returning as a commanding centre-back, brilliant both on the ball and off it. His limited role for France at Qatar 2022 will take some explaining.

17. Martin Odegaard – Arsenal (new entry)

Another new entry and another key Arsenal man, Odegaard is Mikel Arteta's captain at Emirates Stadium and has started to show he might just fulfil the huge potential that was evident in his play as a teenager. Legendary status would be secured if he led the Gunners to the title.

18. Declan Rice – West Ham (16)

Rice has not quite been at his best for West Ham this season, but more importantly, his contract is winding down. It has been reported the Hammers have accepted their most prized asset will likely leave at the end of the season. Still, the fee should be huge.

19. Sven Botman – Newcastle United (new entry)

Botman, signed from Lille at the start of July, was not even in the Newcastle team when the season began. He is now a guaranteed starter in a side chasing Champions League football and perhaps more. Newcastle have no need to sell a centre-back who is yet to lose a match in black and white.

20. Mason Mount – Chelsea (13)

Committed to repeating the success of the Roman Abramovich era, Chelsea have no need to sell academy product Mount. But he still has not quite yet shown himself to be one of the Premier League's elite talents, netting only twice for a team down in eighth.

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