Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the real deal. The question is, can he match or even surpass the career of his Hall of Fame father?
Vladimir Guerrero is a name synonymous with baseball. Guerrero Sr. was voted one of the most feared hitters following a stellar career spanning 16 seasons that included an American League (AL) MVP, nine All-Star selections and eight Silver Slugger Awards.
Powerful just like his dad, Guerrero Jr. is now flying the family flag in living up to the hype, spearheading the Toronto Blue Jays' exciting young core in a bid to end their World Series drought, which dates back to 1993.
From prospect to star
Guerrero Jr.'s success is no surprise. He had long been on the radar when the Blue Jays signed the top international free agent in 2015. Before making his major league debut in 2019, he worked his way through the minor leagues – initially with the Rookie Advanced Bluefield Blue Jays before opening the 2017 season with the Class-A Lansing Lugnuts. He then joined the Advanced-A Dunedin Blue Jays later that year.
John Schneider – part of Toronto Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo's coaching staff – was manager of the Dunedin Blue Jays that year, a roster which also boasted Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Danny Jansen, as Guerrero Jr. had 56 hits, 31 runs, six homers, 31 RBI and a .333 batting average.
"Everyone sees the talent and the name obviously because of his dad and all that kind of stuff. But just how intelligent he is… and him as a team-mate and person," Schneider told Stats Perform News. "His team-mates love him. He loves coming to the yard and playing every day, having fun.
"It's been cool to watch him transform himself from a young kid with a ton of talent and having fun to a really established, difference-making major league hitter right now."
Guerrero Jr. – born in Montreal – has 35 hits, 24 runs, seven homers and 23 RBI with a .310 average this season, while boasting a .447 OBP, .549 SLG and .995 OPS – all career highs through 33 games in his third season in the majors. His 456-foot moon shot against the Kansas City Royals has put him in esteemed company in terms of distance this season, while his max 116.1 exit velocity is a number not many in the sport can even dream of matching.
A popular player in the team with an infectious smile, Guerrero Jr. also celebrated an accomplishment beyond even his famous Dominican father achieved – a three-plus homer and seven-plus RBI game last month against Max Scherzer's Washington Nationals as the 22-year-old became the youngest player in MLB history to achieve that feat.
The matchup against the Nationals also featured his third career grand slam. Aged 22 years and 24 days, Guerrero Jr. became the youngest player since Alex Rodriguez (20 years and 345 days in 1996) at the time of his third slam.
"People are drawn to him – players, staff. It's fun to be around him. He comes to the field with a smile every day and he comes every day having fun. It rubs off on guys. It's cool to have him go through the minor-league system with Bo, Cavan, Gurriel and those guys," Schneider said. "They know each other very well, they're comfortable with each other and it's something they've always done. It's easier for them to be themselves now and Charlie does a good job allowing everyone to do that. He has an infectious personality."
In his first 33 games of his third MLB season in 1998, Guerrero Sr. tallied more hits (39), fewer runs (19) and the same number of homers (seven), while he was inferior to his son when it comes to batting average (.307), OBP (.350) and SLG (.535).
"You forget how young he is because of how good he is," Schneider said. "He is always working on things whether it's offensively, defensively or game-planning wise. It's an adjustment period between the minor leagues and the big leagues.
"We've always kind of seen him as a hitter, being this talented and hitting the ball hard. But being able to watch him and look at advanced reports, have a much better plan going into every game has been a big difference. Watching him evolve at first base and third base for that matter has been great. You get the exceptional offense and forget that he is 22 years old and there is always going to be continued development throughout the course of his career."
Hard work pays off
During the coronavirus-shortened 2020 season, Guerrero Jr. finished with 58 hits, 34 runs and nine homers with a .262 batting average as the Blue Jays returned to the postseason for the first time since 2016. He had one hit as Toronto bowed out in the Wild Card Round at the hands of eventual World Series runners-up the Tampa Bay Rays.
Guerrero Jr. is now reaping the rewards after an intense offseason – shedding the pounds between the playoffs in October and Spring Training in February. He is gliding around the bases and making a mockery of major league pitching.
His walk percentage has rocketed from 8.2 in 2020 to 17.7 this season – a differential of plus 9.5, the largest increase in 2021, ahead of the Houston Astros' Yuli Gurriel (+7.7), Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Max Muncy (+7.5), Detroit Tigers outfielder Robbie Grossman (+7.5) and Nationals outfielder Victor Robles (+6.7).
In terms of OPS, his increase from .791 in 2020 to .995 (+.205) is the fifth-largest this season, behind only the Boston Red Sox's J.D. Martinez (+.396), Gurriel of the Astros (+.301), Chicago Cubs star Javier Baez (+.208) and Los Angeles Angels superstar Mike Trout (+.208).
Guerrero Jr. has also reached base on 63 occasions through Toronto's first 33 games of the 2021 season. That number ranks eighth all time in franchise history – Jose Bautista (70 in 2014) is first.
"Throughout the course of his career, in the minors, he was always finding himself in good counts," Schneider said of Guerrero Jr's patience at the plate this year. "Part of it was people were very careful with him and I think it's a little bit different in the minors command wise. Now, the biggest thing is that he's doing the same thing – you look up and it's 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and he is laying off of borderline pitches where I think in his first two years he was putting in play.
"He is laying off those pitches knowing he can put them in play but maybe can't do damage with them. He has the very rare ability to be looking for a heater and get the hanging breaking ball and hit it out. He has better command of his strike zone with the combination of understanding how a pitcher is going to attack him."
Guerrero Jr. is fast becoming one of the elite first basemen in MLB. He is also forming a formidable partnership with team-mate and shortstop Bichette in the field.
In 2021, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette rank eighth for most direct assist-putout combinations by duos with 58 – Texas Rangers pair Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Nate Low (86) top the list, which only counts direct throws from one player to the other.
Guerrero Jr. is also fifth for the most total fielding chances in the majors without committing an error (228) this year.
"He has worked tirelessly with Luis Rivera our infield coach at first base but he always been a very, very good athlete," added Schneider. "Getting himself into really good physical condition has really helped him on both sides of the ball. Last year was kind of a crash-course at first base in a shortened season with a long lay-off due to COVID but he has taken it head-on and learnt new things.
"Just little things like when to get a ball to his right and when to go to the bag. It's just coming at you in a different angle than what he was used to last year. He's been doing a ton of reps and has always had the physical ability."
With 216 career games to his name, Guerrero Jr.'s stat line reads – 219 hits, 110 runs, 31 homers, 125 RBI, a .274 batting average, .353 OBP, .457 SLG and .810 OPS. It is not far off his father at the same stage of his career – 258 hits, 129 runs, 39 homers, 125 RBI, .317 average, .361 OBP, .541 SLG and .903 OPS.
Guerrero Jr.'s numbers also stuck up well against some Hall of Fame first basemen, including Orlando Cepeda, Tony Perez, Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell and Jim Thome.
Cepeda: 279 hits, 136 runs, 40 homers, 153 RBI, .319 batting average, .350 OBP, .538 SLG and .888 OPS
Perez: 144 hits, 66 runs, 16 homers, 88 RBI, .254 batting average, .303 OBP, .412 SLG and .715 OPS
Murray: 232 hits, 108 runs, 36 homers, 119 RBI, .280 batting average, .332 OBP, .463 SLG and .795 OPS
Bagwell: 216 hits, 110 runs, 23 homers, 120 RBI, .277 batting average, .372 OBP, .426 SLG and .798 OPS
Thome: 180 hits, 104 runs, 30 homers, 98 RBI, .256 batting average, .346 OBP, .449 SLG and .794 OPS
In the grand scheme of things, Vladdy's career is still in its infancy and he has barely scratched the surface of his potential, but he is on track to follow in his dad's footsteps, and then some.
McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United
Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.
United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.
While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.
That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.
McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.
"Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.
"It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."
Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.
Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off.
"I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea.
"You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that.
"We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Ipswich Town - Liam Delap
Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.
That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).
Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho
Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).
The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).
MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN
Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.
The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.
United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.
The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.
However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Ipswich Town - 22.2%
Draw - 23%
Manchester United - 54.8%
Slot deserves praise for modest approach to Liverpool job – Mills
Arne Slot deserves praise for not being "arrogant" with his approach to succeeding Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool boss, according to Danny Mills.
The Dutchman has made a hugely positive start to life at Anfield since replacing long-serving Klopp ahead of the 2024-25 season.
The 28 points Slot has collected is the joint-most of any manager in their opening 11 Premier League games along with Guus Hiddink at Chelsea.
Liverpool's only blemish on an otherwise perfect start to the top-flight campaign was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest in September.
Indeed, only in 2019-20 (31 points) have Liverpool collected more points after 11 games of a Premier League season than their 28 this campaign.
Former Leeds United and Manchester City defender Mills has been particularly impressed by Slot's approach to a new era at Anfield.
"Arne Slot has surprised me," Mills told Stats Perform. "They did have a difficult defeat against Nottingham Forest at home. That was a defeat not many people saw that coming, but the start he's had is unbelievable. It's incredible.
"Training might be slightly different, but the style of play is very similar. The players are comfortable with it. They've been high-energy, closing people down, and playing at 100 miles an hour when they win the ball back.
"It shows managerial intelligence to understand the players' qualities and build on what they had when they were successful. He hasn't overthought it or tinkered too much.
"He hasn’t been arrogant and said, 'I'm going to rip it up and start fresh'. It wasn't broken; it was already successful. He's just added to it."
Liverpool won a first ever Premier League title during Klopp's eight-and-a-half years in charge, as well the Champions League in 2018-19.
Klopp also lifted the FA Cup, two EFL Cups, the UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup, setting a high benchmark to follow.
"Liverpool identified the man they wanted, brought him in, and he's been very clever," Mills added. "He looked at the squad and thought, 'these are good players. I don't need to change too much'.
"That's smart because Liverpool were very successful under Klopp. If you come in and rip up the playbook and it doesn't work, players will question why they're not doing what worked under Klopp."
Liverpool have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – four fewer than next-best Nottingham Forest.
They are conceding at a rate of around 0.5 goals per game, compared to around 1.1 in Klopp's final season in charge (41 goals in 38 matches).
"Slot has tweaked things slightly, maybe made them more defensively solid, which they needed to really challenge," Mills said. "Championship-winning or Champions League-winning teams are built on solid defences.
"You don't win without that. He's shored up the defence and allowed the players to continue doing what they were doing before."
Sale, Skubal win MLB's Cy Young Awards
Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal and Atlanta Braves lefty Chris Sale were each named the winner of their respective league’s Cy Young Award on Wednesday.
The announcement was hardly a surprise after each ace won their league's pitching triple crown during the 2024 regular season.
This is the first Cy Young for both pitchers.
Skubal, who turned 28 on Wednesday, enjoyed a break-out year in his fourth full MLB season, and was a unanimous winner, receiving all 30 first-place votes in balloting by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. The Kansas City Royals' Seth Lugo finished second and Cleveland Guardians relief pitcher Emmanuel Clase finished third in the balloting, which was completed before the play-offs.
Sale received 26 of 30 first-place votes, while Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler finished second, ahead of Pittsburgh Pirates righty Paul Skenes, who was selected as the National League Rookie of the Year on Monday.
The 35-year-old Sale has come close to winning the award before, finishing as runner-up to Cleveland's Corey Kluber in 2017, with five other top-five finishes in voting since his first full season in the majors in 2011.
Since the inception of the Cy Young Award in 1956, there have been 16 pitchers to win his league's pitching crown. And now, every one of them has also won that year's Cy Young.
Skubal and Sale each won an MLB-best 18 games, while Skubal led all pitchers with 228 strikeouts – three more than Sale. Sale's ERA of 2.38 was just a tick better than Skubal's 2.39.
Both were dominant down the stretch in leading their teams to the play-offs, with Sale permitting two earned runs or fewer in each of his final 18 regular-season starts, though he was unable to pitch in the season final or the Braves' NL Wild-Card series loss to the San Diego Padres because of a back injury.
Skubal posted a 1.94 ERA in his final nine outings, and then threw 13 shutout innings in his first two play-off starts in helping the Tigers surprisingly reach the American League Division Series. He ended up going 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three post-season starts.
Skubal became the fifth Tiger to win the Cy Young trophy – and first since Max Scherzer in 2017 – and Sale is the fifth Brave to earn the award – and first since Hall of Famer Tom Glavine in 1998.
Despite several close calls in Cy Young voting for Sale, he has dealt with injuries for the past five seasons, and was limited to a total of 151 innings over the past three years for the Boston Red Sox.
In his first season with the Braves, however, he threw 177 2/3 innings and was awarded the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award last Thursday.
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