Round four of the 2024 Rugby Championship is almost upon us, taking us past the halfway stage of a competition so far dominated by South Africa.
The Springboks made it three wins from three games against New Zealand last time out, though they left it late as tries from Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Grant Williams handed them a dramatic 31-27 victory at Ellis Park.
Heading from Johannesburg to Cape Town on Saturday, they know another victory would all but wrap up their first triumph in the competition since 2019, ending the All Blacks' five-year reign.
The world champions enter round four with an eight-point lead over New Zealand in the standings, with Argentina one point further back ahead of their second Test against Australia.
Here, we dive into the Opta data to preview this weekend's action, bringing you the best facts and figures from each game.
SOUTH AFRICA V NEW ZEALAND
At various points last week, it looked as though New Zealand were set to breathe fresh life into this year's Rugby Championship race.
The All Blacks held a 27-17 lead at one stage, but Ofa Tu'ungafasi's 69th-minute sin-bin put South Africa in the ascendancy and two late tries helped them claim victory in a re-run of last year's World Cup final.
It will now take an almighty collapse to stop the Springboks from getting their hands on the trophy. They are chasing a fourth straight Test win over New Zealand, last recording more successive victories against them between September 1937 and September 1949 (six).
The All Blacks, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three Test matches (one win) after only losing one of their previous nine (eight victories).
Last week's defeat was a particularly demoralising one for Scott Robertson's team, as even scoring four tries was not enough for victory. Prior to that game, the last time the All Blacks were beaten when scoring four or more tries was in August 2019 (47-26 v Australia).
The visitors will now be acutely aware of South Africa's resilience, and the Springboks have actually won their last three Tests in Cape Town despite trailing at half-time in two of them, having lost four such matches in a row prior to the start of this run.
South Africa face a nervous wait on the fitness of Siya Kolisi after he took a heavy blow to the cheek from Sam Cane last time out, delaying their team news announcement by two days to give their captain every chance of making it.
But regardless of who starts, they will bring plenty of physicality. The Springboks have crossed the gain line on 64% of their carries in this year's Rugby Championship – at least 6% more than any other team. Their tackles success rate of 89%, meanwhile, is also the highest in the tournament.
New Zealand will have to make the most of their opportunities, but they can take encouragement from their efficiency in the 2024 tournament to date. Their 22 line breaks are at least four more than any team, while their average of 3.6 points scored per attacking 22m entry is also the best in the competition.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
South Africa – Elrigh Louw
Louw has crossed the gain line from 73% of his 26 carries so far in the 2024 Rugby Championship. That is the highest rate of any player with 20 or more carries in the competition this year.
New Zealand – Caleb Clark
While the All Blacks were unable to get over the line against South Africa last week, Clark impressed with two tries, having failed to score versus the Springboks in three previous career appearances against them.
Overall, he has six tries in his last six Tests, scoring at least once in each of his last three.
ARGENTINA V AUSTRALIA
Australia finally got up and running in this year's tournament in round three, overcoming Argentina in another dramatic finale in La Plata.
Ben Donaldson kicked a last-gasp penalty as the Wallabies triumphed 20-19, and though a fifth Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship title is now surely beyond them, they could restore further pride this week by claiming back-to-back wins in the competition for the first time since 2022.
Australia have now won four of their last six Test matches against Los Pumas (two defeats), though they have typically had to do things the hard way, not leading at half-time in any of the teams' last four meetings (two wins, two defeats).
Indeed, Argentina should be expected to keep things competitive again, having seen four of their last five Rugby Championship matches decided by margins of no more than eight points (two wins, three losses).
This will be the first time they have welcomed Australia to Sante Fe, where they will be desperate to improve on their underwhelming record. They have lost their last two games in the city, going down 30-12 to Wales in 2018 and 35-25 to England in 2017.
The hosts will again be looking to make the most of kick returns, having gained 423 metres from such situations in the Rugby Championship this year – 170 more than Australia, who rank second with 253m.
Australia, meanwhile, lead the tournament charts for turnovers won, with 16. The Wallabies have also registered 44 successful exits from their defensive 22m zone, with only New Zealand (47) recording more.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Argentina – Juan Martin Gonzalez
Gonzalez, alongside Australia's Carlo Tizzano, has made dominant contact on more tackles than any other player in the Rugby Championship 2024 (seven each).
Gonzalez has also crossed the line for a try in each of his last four Test matches against Australia, including for Argentina's sole score last week. He has gained 4.1 metres per carry in the Rugby Championship 2024, the best average among all forwards (minimum 10 carries attempted).
Australia – Rob Valentini
Valentini has been directly involved in four tries in his last four Test matches (three tries, one try assist), including going over Argentina last time out.
That is more involvements than he logged across his previous 27 Tests for the Wallabies prior to this span (three – two tries, one try assist).
Messi not on Ballon d'Or shortlist as Yamal, Rodri and Bellingham included
Eight-time Ballon d'Or winner Lionel Messi has missed out on a nomination for this year's award, with Lamine Yamal, Rodri and six England internationals making the 30-man shortlist.
Argentina captaincy 'still belongs' to Messi, says De Paul
Rodrigo De Paul says the Argentina captaincy "still belongs" to Lionel Messi despite his extended injury lay-off.
The Inter Miami star has been out of action since the Copa America final due to an ankle injury and will not be involved in Argentina's upcoming World Cup qualifiers against Chile and Colombia.
Messi is still a key part of Lionel Sclaoni's plans with the national side, and he played in all but one of their games at that tournament, though only registered one goal and one assist for the tournament.
Angel Di Maria retired from international duty after their Copa America triumph and was the usual deputy to Messi, who has captained Albiceleste since 2011.
With neither of those two available, it is expected that De Paul, who has 69 international caps, will wear the armband against Chile, but he has played down the idea of deputising for Messi.
"I always say that I play the role that they give me," De Paul said.
"It's been many years. I feel like an important player in this team. That's all I can say.
"Afterwards, we know that the armband belongs to Leo. Whoever has to wear it will be circumstantial because he is the captain of this team."
Argentina are currently top of their qualifying group with five wins from six games. Meanwhile, Messi is back in training again and is expected to make his return in MLS later this month.
Premier League MD3: Lucky winners and unlucky losers
The Premier League takes its first break for international fixtures over the next two weeks.
But we had plenty of thrills and spills on matchday three.
Everton were 2-0 up in the 87th minute against Bournemouth on Saturday, only for Sean Dyche's team to lose 3-2. Manchester City continued their perfect start, while Arsenal were held by Brighton, with Declan Rice sent off.
On Sunday, Newcastle United overcame Tottenham and Chelsea drew with Crystal Palace, while the headline fixture of the weekend saw Liverpool hammer Manchester United.
But which teams were lucky, and unlucky, on MD3?
Lucky winners: Bournemouth
Andoni Iraola claimed Bournemouth were fortunate to come from behind and beat Everton 3-2 at Goodison Park. The Toffees were leading by 2+ goals until the 87th minute – the latest a team has ever been 2+ goals ahead in a game they've gone on to lose in Premier League history.
The full-time stats perhaps suggest a different version of events to Iraola's take. Bournemouth finished with a higher expected goals (xG) than Everton (2.22 to 1.97) while having 17 shots to the hosts' 18.
But up until late on, Everton had complete control. Indeed, as of the 80th minute, Sean Dyche's team had mustered 18 shots, 11 more than Bournemouth.
And just to hammer that home, 1.79 of Bournemouth's 2.22 xG came from the 81st minute onwards. While the Cherries deserve credit for a smash-and-grab, it is fair to say that Everton, who had five big chances but scored just two of them, will have been left scratching their heads as to how they capitulated.
Unlucky losers: Chelsea
Okay, so technically, Chelsea are not 'losers' - they drew 1-1 with Palace on Sunday.
But, based on the metrics, they were extremely unfortunate not to beat Oliver Glasner's team.
Chelsea had 13 shots and accumulated 2.4 xG, which was the third highest across the weekend's games, behind Brentford (2.78) and Man City (3.0), albeit a huge chunk of it came from Nicolas Jackson's close-range finish.
Palace goalkeeper Dean Henderson was in fantastic form, making some excellent saves to deny Noni Madueke and Cole Palmer and coming away with a goals prevented figure of 1.76, and ultimately, Eberechi Eze's stunner, which had an xG of just 0.06, was enough to claim a share of the spoils and frustrate Enzo Maresca.
Lucky winners: Newcastle United
Newcastle beat Spurs 2-1 at St James' Park, and Eddie Howe's team showed how clinical they can be.
They had nine shots, 11 fewer than Tottenham, but actually amassed a higher xG total (1.83 to 1.26), showing that the opportunities they created were quality ones.
Indeed, they converted both of their big chances, meaning they join Leicester City (1/1) as the only other team from the weekend to register a 100% big chance conversion rate.
Unlucky losers: Arsenal
Like Chelsea, Arsenal drew, but based on the underlying metrics, and even though they went down to 10 men when Declan Rice was sent off, they could be considered unfortunate not to have beaten Brighton.
Mikel Arteta's team finished with an xG of 2.14, the fifth-highest total from the weekend, while also creating five big opportunities, from which players would have been anticipated to do better, only for the Gunners to miss four of them.
On the flip side, Arsenal did face 22 shots going the other way, albeit those attempts did not account for a high xG (1.76).
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