Rugby Championship: The Breakdown – South Africa face in-form Australia, can Argentina end All Blacks hoodoo?

By Sports Desk August 09, 2024

The Rugby Championship is back.

All eyes will be on the Southern Hemisphere's finest throughout six matchdays in August and September, with the tournament returning to a full 12-game format after the 2023 edition was shortened due to the Rugby World Cup. 

South Africa broke New Zealand's hearts in the final of that tournament in France, and now they are hoping to end the All Blacks' four-year streak of victories in this competition.

The two favourites have been kept apart on the opening matchday, and both will be desperate to avoid any slip-ups on matchday one, as the Springboks go to Australia and New Zealand entertain Argentina.

Here, we run through the best Opta stats ahead of this weekend's action, picking out the players to watch in each contest.

AUSTRALIA v SOUTH AFRICA

The action gets under way at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane as Australia host the world champions, who are targeting a third straight Test win against the Wallabies following triumphs in the last two editions of the Rugby Championship.

They only won two of their previous eight versus Australia (two draws, four losses) and last enjoyed a longer winning run against them between September 2012 and September 2013 (three matches).

With the Wallabies starting a period of transition under new head coach Joe Schmidt, Rassie Erasmus' men go in as handy favourites to follow up their 24-8 victory in Australia two years ago. They last won back-to-back Tests in Australia in July 1993.

The Springboks have won 13 of their last 15 Tests, their only two defeats in that time coming against Ireland, while their 10.8 offloads per game are the most of any Tier One nation in Tests this year.

They always bring plenty of physicality, boasting the only three Tier One players to make 10 or more carries into contact while managing a dominant carry rate of 70% or better this year, namely Ben-Jason Dixon (83%), Lukhanyo Am (82%) and Makazole Mapimpi (79%). However, the latter duo are absent from their matchday one selection.

Erasmus will be warning his side against any complacency, however, given Australia have won their last four Test matches including all three to be played in 2024. 
The last time they started a calendar year with a longer winning run was in 2008 (five matches).

No Tier One team has conceded fewer than Australia's 11.3 turnovers per game in Tests this year, while only Argentina (15.33) have averaged more than South Africa (15.25). Keeping the mistakes to a minimum will be key if the Wallabies are to spring a surprise. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Australia – Jake Gordon

Gordon will form one half of Australia's run-on halves pairing, alongside Noah Lolesio. The 31-year-old has been a reliable performer at the start of this new era for Australian rugby, seeing six of his 21 kicks from hand retained by a team-mate in Test action this year.

His kick retention rate of 29% is the best of the 25 Tier One players to attempt at least 20 kicks in Test rugby in 2024.   

South Africa – RG Snyman 

Snyman will start at number five in place of the injured Franco Mostert, having proven a capable deputy so far this year.

He has made 10 offloads in just 182 Test rugby minutes in 2024, averaging 4.4 per 80 minutes. No other Tier One player has averaged three or more per match this year.

NEW ZEALAND v ARGENTINA 

New Zealand have not failed to win the Rugby Championship in 2019, and retaining their crown will be all the more important this year, following their dramatic 12-11 defeat to South Africa in the World Cup final almost 10 months ago.

Opening their 2024 campaign in Wellington, the All Blacks will be confident of maintaining their 100% record under new head coach Scott Robertson, who oversaw two wins over England and a 47-5 rout of Fiji last month.

New Zealand have an excellent record versus Argentina, winning 16 of their previous 17 Tests against them on home soil and averaging a winning margin of 34.8 points across those victories. The only defeat in that run came in the 2022 Rugby Championship, at the low point of Ian Foster's reign as head coach.

The All Blacks got their revenge by destroying Los Pumas 44-6 in the World Cup semi-finals last year, and they have now won their last three Tests against them, scoring 40 or more points in each of those meetings.

Before that run began, New Zealand had only tallied 40 or more points in three of their previous 22 meetings with Argentina.

Argentina, meanwhile, are yet to begin a Rugby Championship campaign with a win, losing their opening match in each of their previous 11 appearances. They did, however, beat the All Blacks in their first game of the 2020 Tri Nations.

Like their hosts, Argentina are entering a new era under Felipe Contepomi, who took the reigns from Michael Cheika after the World Cup. 

Los Pumas have scored an average of 6.3 tries per game in Test action this year, the most of any Tier One nation, while they also lead the way for dominant contact on carries, doing so 51 times per game on average. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

New Zealand – Ardie Savea

Savea will lead New Zealand out for the ninth time on Saturday, with a finger injury leaving regular skipper Scott Barrett sidelined.

Savea has been directly involved in six tries in his last six Test matches (four tries, two try assists) and scored a try when the All Blacks last faced Argentina in the Rugby Championship last August.

Argentina – Pablo Matera 

Matera is also a stand-in captain for this match, with Julian Montoya absent due to a rib injury.

He made a competition-high 44 carries in the 2023 edition of the Rugby Championship, while his four offloads were the joint-most of any player in that tournament. 

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    France posted a comfortable 37-23 win over Argentina on Friday to make it three wins out of three tests at the Stade de France to conclude their Autumn Nations Series. 

    Having also beaten New Zealand and Japan in Paris this month, Fabien Galthie's side claimed four tries, including a superb solo effort from Louis Bielle-Biarrey, as they eased to victory against the Pumas. 

    The hosts led 30-9 at the break after Argentina's Julian Montoya and Juan Martin Gonzalez were both shown yellow cards in the first half, with Thomas Ramos slotting his third penalty of the game. 

    Tomas Albornoz made it 30-16 for Felipe Contepomi's visitors, but their hopes of a comeback were dashed as Bielle-Biarrey scored his fourth try in three games before Ramos made it 37-16. 

    Albornoz then cut the deficit to 37-23 with a two-pointer with nine minutes to play, but that wasn't enough to stop his side from falling to a defeat. 

    "We knew it was going to be an 80-minute game. We saw last week how Argentina went all the way against a good Irish team," France lock Emmanuel Meafou told TNT Sports. 

    "We are happy with the win. We have three from three [in the autumn] and we will look to build on that in the Six Nations next year."

  • England must be 'brave on the ball' to halt winless run, says Borthwick England must be 'brave on the ball' to halt winless run, says Borthwick

    England head coach Steve Borthwick has demanded his team to be "brave on the ball" when they take on Eddie Jones' Japan in the Autumn Nations Series on Sunday. 

    Borthwick's side have lost each of their last five matches, their longest such run since another five-game stretch between February and June 2018.

    However, they have not lost more in a row since a streak of seven in 2006. Each of the five losses in their current streak have also come in single-digit margins.

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    "We are trying to play the game a different way," he told BBC Sport.

    "I am encouraging the players to be brave with the ball, to move the ball, that’s where the strength of the team now is and where it is going to be in the future."

    Borthwick named his 23-man squad to face Japan on Friday, reinstating Tom Curry and Sam Underhill, nicknamed the "Kamikaze Kids" by Jones in 2019. 

    Curry has been recalled to the team after he was knocked out against Australia, and he replaces Chandler Cunningham-South in the back-row.

    In the other change from the starting XV that lost to South Africa, full-back George Furbank comes in for Freddie Steward.

    Fin Smith replaces George Ford on England's bench while Cunningham-South steps in for Alex Dombrandt. Sale's Opoku-Fordjour could also make his senior debut. 

    "We anticipate a tough challenge from a team that thrives on playing fast and with tempo," said Borthwick. 

    "Japan are a dangerous team, so it’s important that we execute our game plan and maintain focus throughout the full 80 minutes."

    England team to face Japan

    George Furbank, Tommy Freeman, Ollie Lawrence, Henry Slade, Ollie Sleightholme, Marcus Smith, Jack van Poortvliet, Ellis Genge, Jamie George, Will Stuart, Maro Itoje, George Martin, Tom Curry, Sam Underhill, Ben Earl.

    Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Fin Baxter, Asher Opoku-Fordjour, Nick Isiekwe, Chandler Cunningham-South, Harry Randall, Fin Smith, Tom Roebuck. 

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    Wales have lost each of their last 11 Test matches, their longest ever run in men’s rugby, overtaking a 10-game stretch between November 2002 and August 2003.

    Their most recent defeat came by 32 points (20-52 v Australia), their heaviest loss since a 36-point thrashing at home to South Africa in August last year (16-52).

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    "We've got the best coach in the world who has had a legacy of more than 13 years," said Howley.

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    During Gatland's first stint in charge from 2008 to 2019, Wales were World Cup semi-finalists, Six Nations champions and Grand Slam winners.

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    Howley was asked if he would take an interim head coach job if Gatland departed, but responded defiantly by saying, "Warren Gatland won't leave".

    Howley insists Gatland's experiences can help turn Wales around, saying: "Warren is a hugely respected coach and has coached over a number of years.

    "His legacy with different teams is a winning legacy. At the moment, we are in this spell where we are losing.

    "We at some point know we will win, and I hope it will be the next game on Saturday. I think at the moment we've got the best coach who has got years of experience.

    "We've been in changing rooms where we've won and lost, Lions changing rooms going into the series at 1-1 with everything on the line.

    "He understands rugby, and I believe Wales have got the best coach in the world to get us out of this."

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