It is difficult to look beyond Ireland and France as the principal contenders for this season’s Guinness Six Nations title.
The tournament’s most eagerly-awaited opener for years will unfold between the main two teams on a Friday night in Marseille – and everyone else could be playing catch-up from day one.
There will undoubtedly be many twists and turns along the way, but whichever team triumphs at Stade Velodrome can expect to be nailed on as Six Nations favourites.
In many ways, it should be no surprise given that Ireland are ranked second on World Rugby’s official rankings and France fourth, while Les Bleus won a Grand Slam in 2022 and Ireland replicated the feat last year.
Both teams will also be driven by memories of crushing World Cup disappointment. Backed in many quarters as possible winners, they made quarter-final exits with Ireland losing to New Zealand and France being toppled by South Africa.
Their recent dominance of European rugby cannot be understated, although the bid for silverware this time around takes place without talismanic figures.
Ireland no longer have imperious fly-half Johnny Sexton at the helm following his post-World Cup retirement, and his fellow former world player of the year – genial France scrum-half Antoine Dupont – is playing sevens in pursuit of a Paris Olympics dream.
Both absences will inevitably be felt, yet there is still comfortably sufficient squad depth for Ireland and France to remain a good furlong or two clear of the field.
They are not the only nations dealing with key losses, as retirements, injuries and tales of the unexpected have taken centre stage.
The pre-Six Nations headlines were dominated by Wales wing Louis Rees-Zammit’s shock decision to quit rugby and target a career in American football.
It all unfolded during a frantic hour ahead of Wales head coach Warren Gatland’s Six Nations squad announcement, and Rees-Zammit was added to a list of absentees that included Test rugby retirees Dan Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny, Liam Williams, who is now based in Japan, and an injured trio of Taulupe Faletau, Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake.
England knew in late November that their World Cup skipper Owen Farrell would miss the Six Nations, having opted to take an international break as he prioritised his and his family’s mental wellbeing.
The Saracens fly-half has subsequently signed for French club Racing 92 on a two-year deal from July, which will extend his spell away from Test rugby as Rugby Football Union rules prevents players plying their trade abroad playing for England.
Outside of Farrell’s situation, Courtney Lawes, Ben Youngs and Mako Vunipola – more than 300 England caps between them – have left the international stage, but a crop of exciting newcomers include Exeter wing Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Northampton fly-half Fin Smith and Sale’s Tom Roebuck.
England appear best-equipped to head the chasing pack, but like Wales and Scotland, who meet on the opening weekend in Cardiff, they will need to start strongly in a competition where momentum is key.
Italy, meanwhile, face a tall order to avoid finishing bottom of the pile for a ninth successive campaign, although they have a new head coach in Gonzalo Quesada and leading Italian club Benetton, who contribute 17 players in the national squad, have won seven out of nine United Rugby Championship games this season and hold second spot.
Robertson makes overseas players plea after New Zealand labour versus Italy
New Zealand head coach Scott Robertson has said he wants to see overseas-based players become eligible for the All Blacks after his side laboured to a 29-11 win over Italy.
The visitors recorded their 18th straight win against Italy to wrap up their autumn series, but Robertson's side were made to work for the victory in Turin in flanker Sam Cane's final Test for the team, ahead of his switch to play club rugby in Japan.
Speaking after the game, Robertson said he would ask New Zealand Rugby to follow in the footsteps of world champions South Africa and allow those playing outside domestic competitions to be eligible for the national team.
"We don't want to be a cycle behind or a couple of years behind," Robertson said.
"Professional rugby is always evolving. Let's keep an open mind and see what's next. I'll definitely be presenting.
"Using South Africa as an example, they get the opportunity to use a lot of experienced players who are looked after and managed well into their 30s so they've got a great balance.
"And they've got big squads, they can have two really quality 15s."
Gatland future up in the air after Wales suffer 12th consecutive loss
Wales head coach Warren Gatland did not have answers about his future following their 45-12 defeat to South Africa, their 12th consecutive loss.
The Springboks dominated from the off and were cruising 26-0 just before half-time, after Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Elrigh Louw crossed.
Rio Dyer's try before the break ensured Wales did not draw a blank in the first half, but South Africa did not let up as Aphelele Fassi, Gerhard Steenenkamp and Jordan Hendrikse all followed suit.
James Botham's late effort ensured Wales did not suffer their worst-ever home defeat, but they have now gone an entire calendar year without a win for the first time since 1937.
Gatland has come under increasing pressure as the losses pile up, and though his future remains up in the air, he was proud of how his inexperienced side held up against the world champions.
"It's about seeing what the Welsh Rugby Union has to say," he told TNT Sports when asked about his future.
"You don't make a decision straight after a game, it's always tough coming to a press conference straight after a game before you've had time to catch your breath and look at some of the stats and numbers.
"Let's just see what happens over the next few days."
On their recent run of form, he added: "We punched massively above our weight for a number of years, and we've been saying that when the dam bursts it's going to take a little bit of time to put things right.
"The dam has burst, but it's about making sure that, collectively, with the regions we work together.
"I think we need to be in better shape in a conditioning point of view. We will work on that with some of the players over the next couple of months, so when they turn up for the Six Nations, they're ready to go from day one."
South Africa have won each of their last three Tests, building on their wins over Scotland and England earlier in the series.
Captain Siya Kolisi was pleased with their ruthlessness in the game but also sympathised with Gatland's situation.
"It's been a really good tour," he told TNT Sports. "It hasn't been perfect, the first two games we weren't happy - happy we won, but there was so much we could have done better.
"The results are important, but it's how you do things, the standards we set for ourselves. We know we can do a little bit better as a group.
"We were where Wales are a couple of years ago.
"The only thing I can say is you just can't stop believing. If you look at their starting backline, one of our guys had more caps than all of them. You have to be realistic about these things."
Elsewhere, Ireland produced their most convincing win of their series, scoring eight tries as they cruised past Fiji 52-17 in Dublin earlier on Saturday.
France 37-23 Argentina: Les Bleus wrap up campaign with third win
France posted a comfortable 37-23 win over Argentina on Friday to make it three wins out of three tests at the Stade de France to conclude their Autumn Nations Series.
Having also beaten New Zealand and Japan in Paris this month, Fabien Galthie's side claimed four tries, including a superb solo effort from Louis Bielle-Biarrey, as they eased to victory against the Pumas.
The hosts led 30-9 at the break after Argentina's Julian Montoya and Juan Martin Gonzalez were both shown yellow cards in the first half, with Thomas Ramos slotting his third penalty of the game.
Tomas Albornoz made it 30-16 for Felipe Contepomi's visitors, but their hopes of a comeback were dashed as Bielle-Biarrey scored his fourth try in three games before Ramos made it 37-16.
Albornoz then cut the deficit to 37-23 with a two-pointer with nine minutes to play, but that wasn't enough to stop his side from falling to a defeat.
"We knew it was going to be an 80-minute game. We saw last week how Argentina went all the way against a good Irish team," France lock Emmanuel Meafou told TNT Sports.
"We are happy with the win. We have three from three [in the autumn] and we will look to build on that in the Six Nations next year."
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