It is difficult to look beyond Ireland and France as the principal contenders for this season’s Guinness Six Nations title.
The tournament’s most eagerly-awaited opener for years will unfold between the main two teams on a Friday night in Marseille – and everyone else could be playing catch-up from day one.
There will undoubtedly be many twists and turns along the way, but whichever team triumphs at Stade Velodrome can expect to be nailed on as Six Nations favourites.
In many ways, it should be no surprise given that Ireland are ranked second on World Rugby’s official rankings and France fourth, while Les Bleus won a Grand Slam in 2022 and Ireland replicated the feat last year.
Both teams will also be driven by memories of crushing World Cup disappointment. Backed in many quarters as possible winners, they made quarter-final exits with Ireland losing to New Zealand and France being toppled by South Africa.
Their recent dominance of European rugby cannot be understated, although the bid for silverware this time around takes place without talismanic figures.
Ireland no longer have imperious fly-half Johnny Sexton at the helm following his post-World Cup retirement, and his fellow former world player of the year – genial France scrum-half Antoine Dupont – is playing sevens in pursuit of a Paris Olympics dream.
Both absences will inevitably be felt, yet there is still comfortably sufficient squad depth for Ireland and France to remain a good furlong or two clear of the field.
They are not the only nations dealing with key losses, as retirements, injuries and tales of the unexpected have taken centre stage.
The pre-Six Nations headlines were dominated by Wales wing Louis Rees-Zammit’s shock decision to quit rugby and target a career in American football.
It all unfolded during a frantic hour ahead of Wales head coach Warren Gatland’s Six Nations squad announcement, and Rees-Zammit was added to a list of absentees that included Test rugby retirees Dan Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny, Liam Williams, who is now based in Japan, and an injured trio of Taulupe Faletau, Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake.
England knew in late November that their World Cup skipper Owen Farrell would miss the Six Nations, having opted to take an international break as he prioritised his and his family’s mental wellbeing.
The Saracens fly-half has subsequently signed for French club Racing 92 on a two-year deal from July, which will extend his spell away from Test rugby as Rugby Football Union rules prevents players plying their trade abroad playing for England.
Outside of Farrell’s situation, Courtney Lawes, Ben Youngs and Mako Vunipola – more than 300 England caps between them – have left the international stage, but a crop of exciting newcomers include Exeter wing Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Northampton fly-half Fin Smith and Sale’s Tom Roebuck.
England appear best-equipped to head the chasing pack, but like Wales and Scotland, who meet on the opening weekend in Cardiff, they will need to start strongly in a competition where momentum is key.
Italy, meanwhile, face a tall order to avoid finishing bottom of the pile for a ninth successive campaign, although they have a new head coach in Gonzalo Quesada and leading Italian club Benetton, who contribute 17 players in the national squad, have won seven out of nine United Rugby Championship games this season and hold second spot.
Gatland 'still the best coach in the world', says Wales assistant Howley
Wales assistant Rob Howley described Warren Gatland as the "world's best coach" and insists the under-fire boss is going nowhere.
Wales have lost each of their last 11 Test matches, their longest ever run in men’s rugby, overtaking a 10-game stretch between November 2002 and August 2003.
Their most recent defeat came by 32 points (20-52 v Australia), their heaviest loss since a 36-point thrashing at home to South Africa in August last year (16-52).
And it is not going to get any easier with world champions South Africa the visitors to the Principality Stadium on Saturday for Wales' Autumn Nations Series finale.
South Africa have emerged victorious in six of their last seven Tests against Wales (L1) and have also won each of their last three games against Wales by margins of 16+ points.
Another triumph would see Wales going the calendar year without winning a Test, which has not happened since 1937, though Howley has no doubt that Wales are in safe hands.
"We've got the best coach in the world who has had a legacy of more than 13 years," said Howley.
"He's won Grand Slams and there is no better coach to have in your camp than Warren. He gives players the confidence and self-belief they need to go out and play."
During Gatland's first stint in charge from 2008 to 2019, Wales were World Cup semi-finalists, Six Nations champions and Grand Slam winners.
This time around, amid far more challenging circumstances and attempting to mould a new squad, Wales have won just six out of his 23 Tests at the helm.
Wales have also won just one of their last 11 Test matches at the Principality Stadium, last winning in Cardiff against Argentina in November 2023.
Howley was asked if he would take an interim head coach job if Gatland departed, but responded defiantly by saying, "Warren Gatland won't leave".
Howley insists Gatland's experiences can help turn Wales around, saying: "Warren is a hugely respected coach and has coached over a number of years.
"His legacy with different teams is a winning legacy. At the moment, we are in this spell where we are losing.
"We at some point know we will win, and I hope it will be the next game on Saturday. I think at the moment we've got the best coach who has got years of experience.
"We've been in changing rooms where we've won and lost, Lions changing rooms going into the series at 1-1 with everything on the line.
"He understands rugby, and I believe Wales have got the best coach in the world to get us out of this."
Farrell backs 'composed' Prendergast to shine on first Ireland start
Andy Farrell believes Sam Prendergast is ready to step up ahead of his first Ireland start against Fiji at the Aviva Stadium on Saturday.
Farrell has made seven changes to his team, handing first caps to Leinster's Gus McCarthy and Ulster's Cormac Izuchukwu for the penultimate game of the Autumn Nations Series.
The Ireland head coach has handed Prendergast the number 10 jersey for the first time after he was used off the bench in the closing stages of last week's win over Argentina.
Prendergast has only started eight games for Leinster, but Farrell had no hesitation in handing him a first start after he impressed on the Emerging Ireland tour of South Africa.
"I'm confident from what we've seen. We took him on the Emerging [Ireland] and he played in all of those games," said Farrell.
"The aim of that was to grab hold of that team and make sure that he treated it like it was his own, as though he was in charge, and he did that in spades.
"This week we've seen the benefit of that, but we need to see it transfer, obviously.
"Yes, his character is composed, confident but yet not over-confident. He's assertive in what he wants, and he has a nice way about how he goes about his business.”
Farrell also had a glowing review for Izuchukwu, saying: "Izzy has been in and around the squad for a while. The first Emerging Ireland tour was when we first came across his ability, his athleticism, his point of difference.
"That was a couple of years ago but the improvement in his maturity of his game, because he was young in the 15-a-side game when the first tour was on, but the difference between the first and second tour was like chalk and cheese.
"His ability and potential with that maturity, he deserves a shot to show us all what he's got."
On McCarthy, who captained the Ireland Under-20s to a Six Nations Grand Slam in 2023, Farrell said: "He's been a captain and you can see why because his maturity in how he goes about the game."
He added: "We took him on the training week [to Portugal] as a development player and he showed up unbelievably well. He forced our hand to keep him in the squad first and foremost and he deserves a shot to see what he can do as well."
Ciaran Frawley also returns to the bench after missing out last weekend on the back of a poor outing against New Zealand.
And Cian Healy must wait another week for a record-breaking 134th cap - having drawn level with Brian O'Driscoll against Argentina - after the prop was left out of the 23.
Ireland team to play Fiji
Jamie Osborne; Mack Hansen, Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki, Jacob Stockdale; Sam Prendergast, Craig Casey; Andrew Porter, Gus McCarthy, Finlay Bealham; Joe McCarthy, Tadhg Beirne; Cormac Izuchukwu, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rob Herring, Tom O'Toole, Thomas Clarkson, Iain Henderson, Cian Prendergast, Conor Murray, Ciaran Frawley, Stuart McCloskey.
'World-class' Scotland will provide Wallabies' sternest test – Skelton
Australia will face their sternest test to date when they continue their autumn tour against a "world-class" Scotland team at Murrayfield on Sunday.
That is the view of forward Will Skelton, who believes the Wallabies' victories in England and Wales have brought a new energy and confidence to their camp.
Having crashed out in the pool stage at last year's World Cup in France before finishing last in the Rugby Championship, Australia have looked a team reborn in recent weeks.
A first victory at Twickenham since 2015 and a 52-20 rout of Wales – their biggest-ever away win in matches between the teams – have made it an excellent tour to date for Joe Schmidt's side.
But La Rochelle lock Skelton feels their toughest assignment is to come this week, saying: "We've won two games, we're very aware of that.
"The Test against Scotland is going to be the hardest one yet. We're excited about this weekend and we're looking forward to ripping into it.
"Physically they're up there with the top five in the world. I think set-piece wise they're really strong.
"You've got a guy like Finn Russell who's a maestro at the back there. I think it's going be a close one and we'll be up for it.
"There's some class players in the Scottish team and, when they're at it they're world-class, so we're going to have to be on top of our game."
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