The Numbers Game: Free-scoring City aim to better Guardiola record as Ten Hag looks to end sorry run

By Sports Desk September 30, 2022

Premier League football returns in full fashion this weekend for the first time in four weeks, with the Manchester derby a highlight.

Free-scoring Manchester City have excelled so far this term, only dropping points in draws against Aston Villa and Newcastle United, while Manchester United have won their past four after starting the season with back-to-back losses.

United have already shown intent in key matches with victories against Arsenal and Liverpool, while City are yet to face one of the established 'top six' after their clash with Tottenham was postponed.

Ahead of the game, Stats Perform has dived into the Opta stats to highlight the key angles of the match.

City's pursuit of dominance

Victory for City would mark the third in a row in the Premier League against United for the first time since a streak of four wins between April 2013 and November 2014 – including a 4-1 triumph in this fixture last season.

Defeat for United would also be their 18th in the Premier League against their cross-city rivals, equalling Liverpool and Chelsea for the most losses they have suffered in the history of the competition.

City were last beaten at home against Tottenham in February and have lost only 15 of 117 Premier League matches at the Etihad Stadium with Pep Guardiola at the helm, though he has won only two of six in the league against United at the venue.

United's solid form

Four victories in a row in the Premier League for United, on the back of four consecutive defeats, has put Erik ten Hag's side in good form heading into a crucial stage of the season and the club have not won five league games on the spin since April 2021 under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

While City have home advantage on Sunday, the away side in the Manchester derby have won 21 times in the Premier League, with no fixture being won by the visitors more times in the competition's history – three of those being for United against Guardiola's City.

United have also won two of their past three against City at the Etihad Stadium, with a 2-0 victory in March 2021 and a 2-1 triumph in December 2019.

Haaland's haunts

Hat-tricks in back-to-back Premier League home matches heading into the Manchester derby have put Erling Haaland in with an opportunity to secure further history, with no player in the competition's history netting a treble in three consecutive home games before.

City's dominance at home is not just down to the former Borussia Dortmund man, however, as they have won each of their past seven Premier League matches at home, scoring at least three goals on each occasion – a run that stretches back to last season.

No team have won eight straight matches in the top flight of English football while scoring at least three goals in each since Tottenham between March and September 1965.

Guardiola's free-scoring side have scored 10 goals in the first half of matches and 13 in the second half, both of which are more than the eight goals United have in total – while United have conceded 75 per cent of their goals in the opening half (6/8).

Ten Hag seeks to end sorry run

Ten Hag has never faced off against Guardiola during the pair's managerial career and he will be looking to end a sorry run for United managers in his first Manchester derby since taking over at the club.

Each of the five previous United managers to have taken charge of a Premier League match against City in the league have lost their first – with David Moyes, Louis van Gaal, Jose Mourinho, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralf Rangnick all suffering defeats.

That leaves Alex Ferguson as the last United manager to win his first league match against City, which came way back in March 1987.

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  • Taylor proud of 'gritty' Man City display in Hammarby victory Taylor proud of 'gritty' Man City display in Hammarby victory

    Gareth Taylor was pleased with how his Manchester City players handled the atmosphere against Hammarby to secure their passage into the Champions League quarter-finals.

    Khadija Shaw opened the scoring in the 31st minute before Ellen Wangerheim restored parity shortly after the interval with a finish from close range. 

    But Shaw continued her fine start to the campaign, scoring the winner to become City's all-time top scorer in the competition, surpassing Georgia Stanway and Janine Beckie (both six). 

    The result saw City make it to the last eight of the competition for the first time since 2021, though the encounter was far from comfortable at the Tele2 Arena on Thursday. 

    Hammarby ended the contest with an expected goals (xG) total of 2.15 compared to the visitors' 1.07, despite both sides having 14 shots throughout the match. 

    However, City maintained their unbeaten record against Swedish sides in the competitor (W6), and Taylor was proud of his side's "gritty" display in Stockholm. 

    “I’m really pleased. It was about qualification for us tonight," Taylor said. 

    "There were a couple of ways we could do it. Obviously, we knew a point was enough, but I don’t think the players were thinking that way.

    “It was a really gritty performance on a really difficult on this pitch. It probably doesn’t look like that for the viewers at home watching it.

    "But it was a really lively surface and we worked so hard.

    “I felt there were some areas we could control the play better. I have to give credit to Hammarby, they were really aggressive.

    "The referee was on our side a little bit in the first half and maybe not in the second.

    “I’m really pleased and proud of the players, they really dug in tonight. You come away from a hostile environment with a win.”

  • Guardiola agrees two-year contract extension with Man City Guardiola agrees two-year contract extension with Man City

    Pep Guardiola will be Manchester City manager for at least two more seasons after 2024-25, after he signed a two-year contract extension on Thursday.

    The 53-year-old was coming to the end of his City deal, which was due to expire at the end of the current campaign, but he has opted to remain at the Etihad Stadium.

    The deal itself will take Guardiola's tenure at the club to over a decade, making him City's longest-serving manager since Les McDowall in 1963.

    There had been suggestions that he may leave at the end of the season following the announcement that director of football Txiki Begiristain was on his way out.

    Guardiola was strongly linked with the England job after Gareth Southgate resigned in the wake of their Euro 2024 final defeat, but the Football Association appointed Thomas Tuchel last month.

    “Manchester City means so much to me," Guardiola said. “This is my ninth season here; we have experienced so many amazing times together. I have a really special feeling for this football club.  

    “That is why I am so happy to be staying for another two more seasons.

    “Thank you to everyone for continuing to trust and support me – The Owner, The Chairman Khaldoon, Ferran, Txiki, the players and, of course, the fans… everyone connected to Manchester City. It has always been an honour, a pleasure and a privilege to be here.  

    “I have said this many times before, but I have everything a manager could ever wish for, and I appreciate that so much.  

    “Hopefully, now we can add more trophies to the ones we have already won. That will be my focus.”

     

    Having been appointed in 2016, Guardiola is by some distance Manchester City's most successful manager of all time, having won 18 major trophies during his time at the club.

    That list includes their first-ever Champions League triumph in 2023 and six Premier League titles, including an unprecedented four on the spin.

    He also boasts a 72.04% win percentage across all competitions, which is unsurprisingly the highest of any full-time City manager in history.

  • McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United McKenna fired up for 'biggest game in world football' against Man United

    Kieran McKenna believes Ipswich Town's Premier League clash with Manchester United will be the "biggest game in world football" this weekend.

    United are in action under new manager Ruben Amorim for the first time since the Portuguese officially replaced Arne Slot as head coach.

    While plenty of focus is on the visitors at Portman Road, Ipswich are fired up after beating Tottenham 2-1 before the international break.

    That was Ipswich's first league win of the season – and their first in the Premier League in 22 years – and now attention turns to facing United.

    McKenna, who previously coached United, said at a fan event this week: "Sunday, what a game. It's one we're really, really looking forward to.

    "Not for the personal connection, but as manager of Ipswich Town, to be on that stage, it's what we've worked so hard for.

    "It's the biggest game in world football anywhere this weekend, the biggest game in the world in the biggest sport in the world and it's at Portman Road."

    Ipswich's surprise win at Tottenham last time out moved them up to 17th, while United are 13th after beating Leicester City 3-0 in Ruud van Nistelrooy's final game in caretaker charge.

    Amorim took his first training session on Monday, albeit with many first-team stars away on international duty, and the former Sporting CP boss believes his style of play will be clear to see from the off. 

    "I think you will see an idea," he told the club's website. "You could like it or not, I don't know, but you will see an idea. 
     
    "You will see a positioning. You will see something that we want to reach that kind of level. You will feel that. 
     
    "We have to know it's [only] two trainings before the first match. This is the best league in the world. But if I have to say something to you, [it's that] you will see an idea. This I can guarantee."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Ipswich Town - Liam Delap

    Delap scored what proved to be Ipswich's winner against Tottenham and has now netted six of his side's 12 Premier League goals this term.

    That makes the Manchester City academy product one of only three players to have scored at least half of his side's goals in the competition this season, along with Erling Haaland at City (55%) and Chris Wood at Nottingham Forest (53%).

    Manchester United - Alejandro Garnacho

    Garnacho was among the scorers against Leicester two weeks ago and has now been directly involved in 20 Premier League goals for United (13 goals and seven assists).

    The Argentina international is one of only two non-British players to reach that figure for United before turning 21, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (25 goals).

    MATCH PREDICTION: MANCHESTER UNITED WIN

    Ipswich are seeking back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since February 2022, with that run also beginning with a 2-1 victory against Tottenham.

    The Tractor Boys are the only side in the competition without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted clubs have failed to win any of their first six home matches, all of whom went back down.

    United have won 17 of their past 19 Premier League games against newly promoted opponents, meanwhile, including nine wins in a row in away fixtures.

    The Red Devils were 1-0 winners on their most recent league trip to Portman Road in April 2022, but only once have they won successive league games away to Ipswich.

    However, the Tractor Boys have lost four of their past five league matches against Man United, failing to score in each of those losses.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Ipswich Town - 22.2%

    Draw - 23%

    Manchester United - 54.8%

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