The Open: Glory for Rory or in-form Schauffele – the experts' picks at St Andrews

By Sports Desk July 12, 2022

All eyes in the golfing world will be trained on St Andrews this week as The Open returns for its 150th championship.

The final major of a year of fracture for the sport will bring the biggest names together once more, but who is best placed to take home the Claret Jug?

Five Stats Perform writers have their say ahead of the tournament...

LIV AND LET LIVE? OOSTHUIZEN IS A ST ANDREWS MASTER – Pete Hanson

Is it time to live and let live (or rather LIV and let live)? The proverb is defined as being able to "tolerate the opinions and behaviour of others so that they will similarly tolerate your own", but in the instance of the LIV defectors it is increasingly difficult to accept the decision for jumping ship as anything other than a nauseating money grab. That being said, looking at this through a purely sporting lens, LIV players who have qualified for The Open are allowed to play this weekend and Louis Oosthuizen knows a thing or two about St Andrews. The South African romped to a seven-shot win at the home of golf in 2010 and only lost in a three-man play-off to Zach Johnson at the same venue five years later. He was also leading through three rounds at Royal St George's a year ago before a final round one over coupled with a Collin Morikawa masterclass saw him end up tied for third.

RORY WINNING POPULARITY CONTESTS AND NOW SEEKS ST ANDREWS SUCCESS – Ben Spratt

If the LIV breakaway has made villains of a number of star names, Rory McIlroy is the PGA Tour's hero. With news of each defector, McIlroy has stood firm in his opposition to the Saudi-backed series – all the while stringing together a superb run of form, finishing in the top 20 in each of his past seven entries and the top 10 in each of the first three majors of the year. Rory is a very real contender this week, and there could hardly be a more popular winner. He has unfinished business at St Andrews, too, having tied for third in 2010 and then missed the 2015 event – where he would have been the defending champion – through injury.

RED-HOT SCHAUFFELE IS THE MAN TO BEAT – Russell Greaves

Fresh from his victory at the Scottish Open – where other putative Open contenders floundered – Xander Schauffele is certainly one to watch. Last week's victory at the Renaissance Club, which came despite a two-over-par opening round, came hot on the heels of his triumph at the Travelers Championship, sending the Tokyo 2020 gold medallist to St Andrews as a man in form. The American has also been in the mix at golf's oldest major before, finishing tied second at Carnoustie in 2018, where a final-round 74 ended his hopes of a maiden major. That search will continue this week for the 28-year-old, with the Claret Jug firmly in his sights. 

MORE MORIKAWA MAGIC INCOMING? – Patric Ridge

Morikawa enjoyed a sensational 2021, triumphing at Royal St George's to claim his second major title aged just 24 and becoming the first player to win on his Open debut since 2003. Yet 2022 has so far failed to yield the same success for the defending champion. He went into the weekend with the lead at last month's U.S. Open, only for a wobble on the Saturday to prove costly. After recovering with a fourth-round 65 to finish tied for fifth, Morikawa said he had learned to "just go play golf", although that approach did not serve him particularly well at the Scottish Open, where he failed to make the cut. If he manages to find the composure that deserted him during that dismal third round in Boston, however, then the world number eight cannot be overlooked as a serious contender once again.

CANTLAY CAN COME GOOD ON THE MAJOR STAGE – John Skilbeck

As the rumour mill links him with an LIV Golf switch, Patrick Cantlay is keeping his focus on the course. The American had a win alongside Schauffele in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April and has achieved four top-fives and two top-15 finishes in his past seven events, including a tie for fourth at the Scottish Open. The elephant in the room is that Cantlay has mostly flunked the majors this year, tying for 39th at The Masters, missing the cut at the US PGA Championship and trailing home in a share of 14th at the U.S. Open. However, the 30-year-old is not fourth in the world rankings for nothing; his time is surely coming. Florida-based Cantlay ranks in the top five for birdie (or better) percentage on the PGA Tour when finding the fairway off the tee this year but is outside the top 70 when driving into the rough, so accuracy from the tee will likely determine his fate.

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  • Rose wants Rahm to make himself eligible for Ryder Cup Rose wants Rahm to make himself eligible for Ryder Cup

    Justin Rose has urged Jon Rahm to make sure he is eligible for the Ryder Cup next year.

    The Spaniard, who plays on the LIV circuit, needs to play three events on the DP World Tour before the end of the season in November to be available for selection.

    The Spanish Open looks to be the most likely solution for the two-time major winner, but he has not yet submitted an entry, which would need to be in by September 12.

    If he fails to meet the requirements needed for his tour membership, Luke Donald will not be able to call on him, even for one of the wild card spots, as Europe look to defend their trophy at Bethpage next September.

    Rose believes not having Rahm in the team would be a huge blow to Team Europe's chances in New York last year, but understands the Tour's need to enforce the regulations.

    "No matter where the world rankings say he is or the golf that he is competing against, we know what a great player he is," Rose said, speaking after an event at Brocket Hall.

    "My point is you want him on the team. There is a pathway for him to play the Ryder Cup if he wants it.

    "I think that's all the DP World Tour can do, and they have their interests to protect, and I still think that it is a doable situation should the player want to choose to do it."

  • Numbers Game: Ex-Irish international Carsley out to prove England credentials in Dublin Numbers Game: Ex-Irish international Carsley out to prove England credentials in Dublin

    England will play their first match without Gareth Southgate in the dugout when they take on the Republic of Ireland.

    Southgate quit his post in the wake of England's 2-1 defeat to Spain in the final of Euro 2024 in July.

    That ended a hugely successful eight-year stint for Southgate when it came to turning around the fortunes of the Three Lions, and restoring England's pride in the national team.

    Yet for all the promise and potential, England could not get over the line when it truly mattered, falling short in two Euros finals, and a World Cup semi-final.

    England had endured a miserable Nations League campaign before their exploits in Germany, and in hindsight, it showed that perhaps Southgate's magic was wearing off.

    Now in League B, having been relegated from League A, England's first match after Southgate sees them face an old rival, as former Ireland international Lee Carsley aims to prove his credentials to the Football Association (FA).

    Having won last year's Under-21 Euros, Carsley will surely be hoping he can follow in Southgate's footsteps in transferring from the youth set up to the senior side.

    Here, using Opta data, we delve into the key talking points ahead of Saturday's clash in Dublin.

    What's expected?

    It's always hard to fully gauge what a team will look like under a new manager, especially in international football. 

    That being said, while we do not quite know what Carsley's England will look like, we can be sure that they are the favourites for this one, with Opta's supercomputer handing them a 70.4% win probability.

    Ireland, on the other hand, have been given just a 13.2% win likelihood, while the threat of a draw is 16.5%.

    This is England's first game without Southgate in charge since a 1-0 win over Slovakia in September 2016 in Sam Allardyce's one and only game.

    Including caretakers, only four managers have lost their first game in charge of the Three Lions: Alf Ramsey (2-5 vs France in 1963), Howard Wilkinson (0-2 vs France in 1999), Peter Taylor (0-1 vs Italy in 2000) and Stuart Pearce (2-3 vs Netherlands at the 2012 Olympics when coaching Team GB).

    It is fair to say Carsley, who played 40 times for Ireland between 1997 and 2008, has history on his side. Will he continue those strong records?

    New blood

    Carsley, as expected, freshened up his squad with some new faces. Angel Gomes, Morgan Gibbs-White, Tino Livramento and Noni Madueke all made the cut.

    Gomes, Gibbs-White and Madueke made 50 appearances combined for Carsley in the U21s, so it is not a huge surprise to see the trio given a shot, while Livramento has usurped Kieran Trippier, who has now retired from international football, at Newcastle United this season.

    At last year's U21 Euros, Carsley's team scored 11 goals in six games, outperforming their 8.5 expected goals (xG) and, despite not dominating possession, averaging 56.4%, they scored the most build-up goals at the tournament (seven) - a build-up goal is an open play sequence that features 10+ passes and ends in a goal.

    Given England performed so poorly, relative to the quality at their disposal, in attack at Euro 2024, perhaps Carsley's approach can help get the best out of that star-studded frontline, albeit Phil Foden, Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer have all withdrawn from the squad.

    Indeed, England have scored just 13 goals in 11 games in 2024, having netted 26 in 10 games in 2023. Their 2024 average of 1.2 goals per game is their lowest in a year since 2000 (exactly one per game, 11 goals in 11 games), so Carsley has a relatively low bar to improve on.

    What about the defence, though? Southgate was a pragmatic manager, and in fairness, England only allowed 7.3 xG against through their seven matches at Euro 2024.

    However, they have shipped the opening goal in each of their last four matches, all in the knockout stages in Germany (W2 D1 L1). The Three Lions have not conceded the opener in five games in a row since between November 1953 and June 1954.

    And going back to that U21 Euros, Carsley's side did not concede a single goal, albeit the xGA metric suggests they should have conceded at least seven.

    While the fresh faces in England's squad will be looking to stake a claim, Jack Grealish has been handed a reprieve after missing out on Euro 2024. And, right at the top of the pitch, there is the experience and world-class finishing ability of Harry Kane, who is closing in on his 100th cap - should he play in Dublin, that will be appearance number 99 for his country.

     

    Ireland's new era

    It is not just Carsley that is making his bow in the dugout on Saturday. Heimir Hallgrimsson is Ireland's new boss, with the former Jamaica and Iceland coach having been appointed earlier in the summer.

    Hallgrimsson has previous with England, of course. He was in joint charge of Iceland when they knocked Roy Hodgson's Three Lions out of Euro 2016.

    The only manager to defeat England with two different nations is Bora Milutinovic, in 1985 with Mexico and in 1993 with the United States.

    And what better way to start a new era than a big win over a big rival?

    This is the first time Ireland will host England since a goalless draw in a friendly in June 2015. In a competitive match, it is the first time since a November 1990 European Championship qualifier, drawn 1-1 with Tony Cascarino cancelling out David Platt's opener for the Three Lions.

    England also won their last meeting with Ireland in November 2020 – they have not won consecutive games against them since doing so with wins in 1980 and 1985.

    Ireland last beat England in 1995, though the sides have only met each other three times since, with two draws and one win for England: that 3-0 triumph in 2020.

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Republic of Ireland - Evan Ferguson

    Ferguson could not quite get going last season after a bright start for Brighton, but he is still one of the Premier League's most exciting youngsters.

    The striker is Ireland's big hope going forward and will be out to make his mark against one of the best teams in the world.

     

    England - Harry Kane

    Kane ranks 10th on the all-time list of England caps and has made 85 starts, playing 7,616 minutes, directly contributing to 83 goals (66 goals – an England record – and 17 assists). He averages 0.78 goals per 90, and 0.98 goal contributions per 90.

    Indeed, Kane averages a goal every 115 minutes for his country, and he will surely be the key man for Carsley as the interim manager looks to capitalise on this audition.

  • The Rugby Championship: Springboks seek decisive victory over All Blacks The Rugby Championship: Springboks seek decisive victory over All Blacks

    Round four of the 2024 Rugby Championship is almost upon us, taking us past the halfway stage of a competition so far dominated by South Africa.

    The Springboks made it three wins from three games against New Zealand last time out, though they left it late as tries from Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Grant Williams handed them a dramatic 31-27 victory at Ellis Park.

    Heading from Johannesburg to Cape Town on Saturday, they know another victory would all but wrap up their first triumph in the competition since 2019, ending the All Blacks' five-year reign.

    The world champions enter round four with an eight-point lead over New Zealand in the standings, with Argentina one point further back ahead of their second Test against Australia.

    Here, we dive into the Opta data to preview this weekend's action, bringing you the best facts and figures from each game.

    SOUTH AFRICA V NEW ZEALAND 

    At various points last week, it looked as though New Zealand were set to breathe fresh life into this year's Rugby Championship race.

    The All Blacks held a 27-17 lead at one stage, but Ofa Tu'ungafasi's 69th-minute sin-bin put South Africa in the ascendancy and two late tries helped them claim victory in a re-run of last year's World Cup final.

    It will now take an almighty collapse to stop the Springboks from getting their hands on the trophy. They are chasing a fourth straight Test win over New Zealand, last recording more successive victories against them between September 1937 and September 1949 (six).

    The All Blacks, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three Test matches (one win) after only losing one of their previous nine (eight victories). 

    Last week's defeat was a particularly demoralising one for Scott Robertson's team, as even scoring four tries was not enough for victory. Prior to that game, the last time the All Blacks were beaten when scoring four or more tries was in August 2019 (47-26 v Australia).

    The visitors will now be acutely aware of South Africa's resilience, and the Springboks have actually won their last three Tests in Cape Town despite trailing at half-time in two of them, having lost four such matches in a row prior to the start of this run.

    South Africa face a nervous wait on the fitness of Siya Kolisi after he took a heavy blow to the cheek from Sam Cane last time out, delaying their team news announcement by two days to give their captain every chance of making it.

    But regardless of who starts, they will bring plenty of physicality. The Springboks have crossed the gain line on 64% of their carries in this year's Rugby Championship – at least 6% more than any other team. Their tackles success rate of 89%, meanwhile, is also the highest in the tournament.

    New Zealand will have to make the most of their opportunities, but they can take encouragement from their efficiency in the 2024 tournament to date. Their 22 line breaks are at least four more than any team, while their average of 3.6 points scored per attacking 22m entry is also the best in the competition. 

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    South Africa – Elrigh Louw

    Louw has crossed the gain line from 73% of his 26 carries so far in the 2024 Rugby Championship. That is the highest rate of any player with 20 or more carries in the competition this year.

    New Zealand – Caleb Clark

    While the All Blacks were unable to get over the line against South Africa last week, Clark impressed with two tries, having failed to score versus the Springboks in three previous career appearances against them.

    Overall, he has six tries in his last six Tests, scoring at least once in each of his last three.

    ARGENTINA V AUSTRALIA 

    Australia finally got up and running in this year's tournament in round three, overcoming Argentina in another dramatic finale in La Plata. 

    Ben Donaldson kicked a last-gasp penalty as the Wallabies triumphed 20-19, and though a fifth Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship title is now surely beyond them, they could restore further pride this week by claiming back-to-back wins in the competition for the first time since 2022.

    Australia have now won four of their last six Test matches against Los Pumas (two defeats), though they have typically had to do things the hard way, not leading at half-time in any of the teams' last four meetings (two wins, two defeats).

    Indeed, Argentina should be expected to keep things competitive again, having seen four of their last five Rugby Championship matches decided by margins of no more than eight points (two wins, three losses).

    This will be the first time they have welcomed Australia to Sante Fe, where they will be desperate to improve on their underwhelming record. They have lost their last two games in the city, going down 30-12 to Wales in 2018 and 35-25 to England in 2017.

    The hosts will again be looking to make the most of kick returns, having gained 423 metres from such situations in the Rugby Championship this year – 170 more than Australia, who rank second with 253m.  

    Australia, meanwhile, lead the tournament charts for turnovers won, with 16. The Wallabies have also registered 44 successful exits from their defensive 22m zone, with only New Zealand (47) recording more.

    PLAYERS TO WATCH 

    Argentina – Juan Martin Gonzalez

    Gonzalez, alongside Australia's Carlo Tizzano, has made dominant contact on more tackles than any other player in the Rugby Championship 2024 (seven each).

    Gonzalez has also crossed the line for a try in each of his last four Test matches against Australia, including for Argentina's sole score last week. He has gained 4.1 metres per carry in the Rugby Championship 2024, the best average among all forwards (minimum 10 carries attempted).

    Australia – Rob Valentini 

    Valentini has been directly involved in four tries in his last four Test matches (three tries, one try assist), including going over Argentina last time out.

    That is more involvements than he logged across his previous 27 Tests for the Wallabies prior to this span (three – two tries, one try assist).

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