The 2021 NFL Draft was unreservedly the year of the quarterback. The 2022 draft is anything but.
A year on from quarterbacks going 1-2-3 in a first round that saw five taken in total, it is tough to make the case for any of the consensus best five from this year's uninspiring crop going in the top 10.
None of that quintet come without significant concerns that will make it hard for franchises to justify spending a premium pick to make them the quarterback of the future.
But there is a clear hierarchy among the group, with two players the standout choices for teams eyeing a potential day-one starter and one prospect standing alone as the home-run swing who brings as much risk as he does reward.
Quarterbacks inevitably get pushed up the board in the draft but, even with the top three members of this class, it may take some teams to get desperate for that to happen his year.
The pro-ready pair
Talk of Kenny Pickett going in the top 10, with the Carolina Panthers viewed as a landing spot due to his connections with head coach Matt Rhule, has raised plenty of eyebrows.
Yet for all the justifiable concerns about taking a quarterback whose ceiling at the highest level may be limited due to arm strength that can make deep throws outside the numbers a challenge for Pickett, the reality is that the former Pittsburgh quarterback is the most pro-ready player at the position in this class.
Last season, Pickett produced an accurate, well-thrown ball on 82.70 percent of his throws, the highest ratio of anyone in the draft. His pickable pass rate of 2.11 percent was also best in class.
Pickett excels at throwing with timing and anticipation, frequently hitting his receivers in stride to maximize their potential to create yards after the catch. He can make throws with pressure in his face and moves well in the pocket to escape pressure while also succeeding at breaking structure and creating with his legs.
Having displayed accuracy in throwing across his body on the run, Pickett will not enter the league with the "statue" concerns that Mac Jones faced last year.
And, though the ball does often die in the air when he goes deep, Pickett's completion percentage of 51.4 percent on 20-plus yard throws put him top of the class, while he was second in well-thrown percentage (68.06) on such attempts.
The upside of a top-10 selection may be absent from Pickett's game, but he should be the leading candidate if a team is looking for a rookie who can play right away, and the gap between him and Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder is perhaps larger than many would believe.
Ridder will go into the league having had the benefit of succeeding while being asked to operate in a manner that should help him acclimatise to the NFL quicker than most. He showed calm under pressure, negating it through intelligent pocket movement, and consistently worked through his progressions before finding his checkdown.
Another impressive timing thrower who is a better athlete than he is given credit for and boasts a stronger arm than Pickett, deep accuracy will be the main concern surrounding Ridder at the next level.
His overall well-thrown percentage of 75.66 was the third-worst in the class and Ridder was the second-worst by that same metric on downfield throws as just 58.57 percent of his deep attempts were accurate.
Ridder can offer a baseline of quarterback play because of what he was asked to do at Cincinnati, but teams must decide whether that is worth the cost of a late first or high second-round pick when there is the possibility to swing for the fences on a higher ceiling quarterback who may take significantly longer to blossom into a starting-calibre player.
Talkin' bout Willis
Unquestionably the most divisive quarterback of the 2022 class is Liberty's Malik Willis, who between his elite-level arm and his remarkable proficiency running the ball in the open field has the highest upside of any signal-caller in this year's crop.
With his 27 rushing touchdowns tied with Malik Cunningham for the most by an FBS quarterback over the last season, Willis demonstrated speed, vision, elusiveness and contact balance as a runner, making him a threat with the ball in his hands from anywhere in the field. Willis led all quarterbacks in this class with a yards per carry average of 6.64 on scrambles and was second with 7.42 on designed runs.
Adept at completing off-platform throws and displaying unerring accuracy throwing on the move, it is extremely exciting to think about Willis could become, his ability to blend touch and velocity when going deep allowing him to post the fourth-best well-thrown percentage (61.11) in the class on throws of 20 yards or more.
Willis fits the role of modern-day NFL quarterback better than any of his contemporaries in the draft but harnessing his obvious potential will take time.
So little was asked of him by Hugh Freeze at Liberty that there are question-marks over whether Willis will be ready to start in the NFL even after a year on the bench.
Though he can get through his progressions and perform full-field reads, Willis struggles significantly as a processor. He plays far too slow in working through his reads, leading to him holding the ball too long and failing to hit open receivers underneath.
Playing too slowly at the NFL level is a recipe for disaster. A team will fall in love with Willis' traits, but they must be prepared to be ultra-patient in waiting for the right moment to maximize them.
A Rebel with a cause... for optimism?
Willis has remained in the QB1 discussion despite struggling in his only 2021 game that saw him go up against one of his quarterback counterparts in this class.
Perhaps unsurprisingly given their respective supporting casts, Willis was outplayed when he and Liberty faced off with Ole Miss and their quarterback Matt Corral.
Yet Corral does not head into the draft in the first-round discussion even after a season in which he helped the Rebels to 10 wins and delivered a well thrown ball on 80.69 per cent of his pass attempts.
He displayed that accuracy while averaging the lowest air yards per attempt (8.20) of any of the top quarterbacks. A decisive thrower to the short and intermediate areas, Corral had the confidence to let it rip due to playing in an offense that relied predominantly on run-pass option plays that provided him with open looks.
When the throwing windows got tighter, Corral struggled to display the same accuracy and consistently risked turnovers on deep passing attempts. No quarterback in the 2021 class had a higher pickable pass rate on throws of 20-plus yards downfield than Corral's 9.80 per cent.
Corral, though, does have the arm to push the ball downfield with success, as reflected by his well-thrown percentage of 60.78 on deep attempts, which puts him less than a percentage point behind Willis.
Possessing the elusiveness in the pocket to evade pressure and the athleticism to be a viable threat on the ground, Corral ticks a lot of the boxes required for a quarterback to succeed in the modern NFL. However, after playing in such a simplified offense at Ole Miss, it would be a significant stretch to expect him to be able to helm an NFL attack early in his pro career.
The team that invests in Corral will likely initially view him as a high-end developmental backup and that is the role North Carolina's Sam Howell can also expect to fulfil for many of the same reasons.
Howell understandably struggled to adapt after losing NFL draft picks Dyami Brown, Michael Carter and Javonte Williams following the 2020 season and there was little in last year's tape to build a compelling case for him as a first-round pick.
Blessed with the arm strength to make throws to every level, Howell averaged more air yards per attempt (11.45) than any quarterback in the class.
But only Willis had a lower well-thrown percentage than Howell's 75.60 and that declined to 50 per cent on throws of 20 or more yards.
Simply put, the consistency throwing the ball was not there for Howell in his final season, in which he was reliant on one-read RPO throws and scrambles or designed runs.
He frequently ran the ball if his first read was not open, showing impressive contact balance to stay on his feet through attempted tackles when he did so.
Howell's 8.42 yards per carry average on designed runs was the highest among quarterbacks in the class. The blend of huge arm and intriguing running ability is likely to entice a team into taking a bet on him as a day-two project, but the road to Howell being a viable NFL starter will be a long one.
Patriots select QB Maye with third overall pick
The New England Patriots hope they now have their franchise quarterback after selecting North Carolina’s Drake Maye with the third overall pick in Thursday's NFL draft.
Maye was the third straight quarterback selected after the Chicago Bears took Caleb Williams at No. 1 and the Washington Commanders chose Jayden Daniels second.
Since Tom Brady departed New England following the 2019 season, the Patriots used Cam Newton as their primary quarterback the following season before drafting Mac Jones 15th overall in 2021.
Jones had a strong rookie season with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions but tailed off to 24 TDs and 23 picks combined the past two seasons and was traded to Jacksonville in March.
Maye likely won’t be the Patriots’ starting quarterback at the start of the 2024 season after veteran signal caller Jacoby Brissett was signed to a one-year contract in March. Brissett has appeared in 79 NFL games with 48 starts and figures to serve as a mentor to Maye.
There is also the belief that Maye simply won’t be NFL ready in a few months and would be best served to sit a season, like what Patrick Mahomes did for the Chiefs in 2017.
Maye was the ACC Player of the Year in 2022 in his first season as a full-time starter at North Carolina, also being named the conference’s Offensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year. He broke Mitchell Trubisky’s school record and set an FBS freshman record with 4,321 passing yards and tied Sam Howell’s mark for passing touchdowns with 38 and threw just seven interceptions. He also displayed his mobility with nearly 700 yards rushing and seven scores.
This past season wasn’t as productive for Maye, who before the season lost offensive coordinator Phil Longo and receivers Josh Downs and Antoine Green to the NFL. Maye was still named to the Second Team All-ACC team as he passed for 3,608 yards with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 12 games.
Maye has all the physical tools to succeed in the NFL, namely excellent arm talent and good mobility for someone of his size (6-foot-4, 223 pounds). He made a host of impressive touch throws in college and understands where to deliver a ball for a receiver to make a play on it.
There are some issues with Maye’s footwork and his tendency to trust his arm strength almost too much and force some throws. His weaknesses, though, seem like the kind that can be improved upon rather quickly and sitting for a full season - or at least most of one - would help greatly in this area.
Maye has drawn comparisons to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.
He isn’t quite the natural athlete that Allen is and probably doesn’t have Hebert’s arm strength, but it’s not far-fetched to think Maye could put up similar numbers to those two at the next level given the right coaching and situation.
Commanders take QB Jayden Daniels second in NFL draft
The Washington Commanders are confident that they have found their franchise quarterback.
With the second overall pick, the Commanders selected LSU’s Jayden Daniels, one of the most electric dual-threat quarterback prospects in recent memory.
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner led LSU to a 10-3 season last year and threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He added 1,134 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns.
On Wednesday, Daniels downplayed reports that he was unhappy with the Commanders conducting a group interview with other top quarterback prospects.
“I'm blessed to go wherever I'm called,” Daniels told reporters. “Whoever calls my phone, whoever gives the card to the commissioner that says my name, I'm blessed to go and they're going to get my all.”
Daniels later clarified that he was “one hundred per cent” heading to Washington.
Despite gaudy production in his senior year, scouts were split on Daniels’ professional prospects, with some wondering if he possesses the pocket passing skills required for the NFL.
At 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, Daniels is larger than most dual-threat prospects, and his ability to avoid turnovers his senior year was very promising.
But Daniels’ Heisman season is an outlier among his five seasons in college – three at Arizona State and the final two at LSU.
In his first 43 NCAA games, Daniels had a 143.8 passer rating. That number skyrocketed to 208.0 last season.
Due to his extended college career, Daniels will celebrate his 24th birthday during his rookie season in the NFL, making him significantly older than fellow top quarterback prospects Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
Daniels joins a Commanders squad that went 4-13 last season with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Dan Quinn replaces Ron Rivera as Washington’s head coach, and former Arizona Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury will take over as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator.
Record-setting first round of NFL draft goes offence heavy
Offence and then offence, some more offence followed by offence.
That was the story of a record-setting first round of the 2024 NFL Draft in Detroit on Thursday night.
For the first time in history, the first 14 picks were offensive players, including six quarterbacks and three wide receivers. The first defensive player didn’t come off the board until the Indianapolis Colts selected edge rusher Laiatu Latu from UCLA with the 15th pick.
The latest a first round had previously gone before a defensive player was taken was No. 8 overall. That’s where the Carolina Panthers took cornerback Jaycee Horn in 2021.
Not only were the 14 straight offensive players to start the draft a record, but it was also the first time 14 consecutive offensive players were taken at any point in the draft.
As expected, the first three picks were quarterbacks.
USC’s Caleb Williams – the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner - went first overall to the Chicago Bears, 2023 Heisman winner Jayden Daniels from LSU was picked next by the Washington Commanders and the New England Patriots took Drake Maye out of North Carolina.
This was the fourth time in the common draft era starting in 1967 that quarterbacks went with the top three picks.
The QBs continued to fly off the board soon after, with the Atlanta Falcons pulling the first surprise of the draft by selecting Michael Penix Jr. of Washington with the 8th overall pick.
The Falcons took Penix less than two months after signing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed.
J.J. McCarthy was the next QB taken, as the Minnesota Vikings moved up one spot to 10th in a trade with the New York Jets. McCarthy went 27-1 as a starter at Michigan and won last season’s national championship.
The Denver Broncos grabbed Oregon signal-caller Bo Nix with the 12th pick as they look to settle a position that has been in flux since Peyton Manning. The Broncos have had 13 starting quarterbacks since Manning retired as a Super Bowl champion after the 2015 season.
Six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks tied the 1983 draft for the most taken in any first round. Three of those became Hall of Fame quarterbacks – John Elway, Dan Marino and Jim Kelly. Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O’Brien also went in the first round in 1983.
The Arizona Cardinals stopped the run of quarterbacks by going for Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4. The Los Angeles Chargers opened the Jim Harbaugh era by taking Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt and the New York Giants picked up explosive LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth pick.
After the Tennessee Titans took Alabama offensive tackle J.C. Latham with the seventh pick, the Bears took Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze at No. 9 with their second selection in the top 10.
The Vikings made the biggest move up in terms of spots, going from No. 23 to 17 in a swap with the Jacksonville Jaguars to select Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner.
The Jaguars selected LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd pick as they try to fill the void left by Calvin Ridley signing with division rival Tennessee in free agency.
It was only fitting that the final two picks of the first round were wide receivers. Ricky Pearsall of Florida went 31st to the San Francisco 49ers and South Carolina’s Xavier Legette was the last selection to the Carolina Panthers.
The 23 offensive players picked was easily the most in history, surpassing the previous record of 19 (1968, 2004 and 2009).
The Philadelphia Eagles made the biggest move of the night outside the draft, agreeing to a three-year contract extension with star wide receiver A.J. Brown.
The contract includes $84 million in guaranteed money and will make Brown the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL at $32 million a season. He could earn as much as $96 million over the length of the extension.
Brown had 106 catches for 1,456 yards receiving last season after he had 88 catches for 1,496 yards in 2022, in his first season with the Eagles.
Brown spent his first three seasons with the Tennessee Titans after he was drafted 51st overall in the 2019 draft. He surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first two seasons in the NFL and had 869 in 13 games in his third season.
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