Free agency was supposed to be the headline act of March in the NFL calendar.
But then a blockbuster Russell Wilson trade, the end (for now) of the Aaron Rodgers saga and the small matter of the unretirement of Tom Brady happened in a whirlwind week for the league.
As such, many of the moves that are reported when the NFL's negotiating window opens may seem insignificant compared to the events of the last seven days.
However, the right acquisition on the open market can have a substantial impact for teams looking to contend for the Lombardi Trophy.
Just look at the Cincinnati Bengals, who were in touching distance of winning the title for the first time thanks in part to the defensive efforts of two free agent signings in edge rusher Trey Hendrickson and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie.
With the salary cap increasing to $208.2million, the first time in league history it has been over $200m, plenty of teams will be ready to loosen the purse strings.
Yet free agency is often not about making the big splash move, it is more a matter of finding the right fit between player and team.
Using advanced metrics, Stats Perform looks at six of the best potential fits for this year's free agency cycle.
J.C. Jackson to New York Jets
Jackson is in for a monster payday after the New England Patriots elected not to place the franchise tag on a cornerback coming off a second-team All-Pro season.
Though they are clearly not ready to contend in 2022, the Jets present the perfect marriage of positional need and cap space, of which they have the second-most in the NFL.
Only four teams allowed more yards per pass play than the Jets (7.11) last season, with the secondary a long-standing problem for New York.
Over the past three seasons, no player in the NFL has record more interceptions than Jackson's 22. His closest challenger is Xavien Howard (16).
Jackson finished 2021 having allowed a big play on 18.9 per cent of his targets, the eighth-best rate among corners with at least 50 targets.
Pairing him with a corner in Bryce Hall who had the best combined open percentage (14.61) across man and zone coverage of any player at his position in the NFL last season (min. 100 coverage matchups) would go a long way to shoring up the Jets' defensive backfield.
Terron Armstead to Cincinnati Bengals
It almost makes too much sense. The Bengals are in obvious need of help on the offensive line and will have the seventh-most cap space of any team in the NFL with which to acquire it, making Armstead an obvious fit.
Though injuries limited him to eight games for the Saints last season, Armstead remains one of the premier left tackles in the NFL.
Armstead's stunt-adjusted pass block win rate of 91.93 per cent was third among tackles with at least 100 pass protection one-on-ones in 2021.
That is exactly the kind of excellence in protection the Bengals need to ensure Joe Burrow can keep them in contention for Super Bowl titles in the coming years.
Tyrann Mathieu to Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been mentioned as a potential destination for several free agents, which is unsurprising given they are in the top half of the league in terms of cap space and have a premier quarterback on a rookie deal in Justin Herbert.
They have already shown a desire to be aggressive in striking a trade to pair edge rusher Khalil Mack with Joey Bosa on the defensive line, yet there is no doubt the secondary would also benefit from an infusion of experience and added quality.
Mathieu would bring just that if the Chargers were able to lure him from the division rival Kansas City Chiefs. With free safety Nasir Adderley having so far struggled to live up to his status as a second-round pick, Mathieu's arrival would allow the Chargers to rotate him and former first-round pick Derwin James, who each possess the versatility to play free and strong safety and one on one with wide receivers and tight ends in man coverage.
Last year, Mathieu finished ninth among defensive backs with at least 100 coverage matchups across man and zone with a combined open percentage allowed of 20.3.
With another three interceptions added to a career tally that now stands at 26, there is no doubt Mathieu still has the playmaking ability and coverage skills to be an asset to any defense.
Von Miller to Denver Broncos
Everybody loves a reunion, and this would be a quick one after the Broncos dealt Miller to the Los Angeles Rams last season, with the veteran edge rusher going on to win his second Super Bowl title.
And after the Broncos struck a stunning trade to acquire Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks, bringing back Miller to boost a defense that will be run by former Rams secondary coach Ejiro Evero would be an ideal next move to make for a team clearly eyeing an immediate run at a Lombardi.
Miller ranked fifth among edge rushers with a stunt-adjusted pass rush win rate of 43.4 per cent in 2021, with that ability to generate pressure highly valuable to a defense that was a disappointing 30th in win percentage last year.
The Broncos are set up to contend, and a return to Denver would potentially give Miller the chance to compete for further titles while ending his career where it started.
Cordarrelle Patterson to San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have a host of more important needs than a wide receiver-turned-running back, and given San Francisco possesses the gold standard in that regard in 'wide back' Deebo Samuel, signing Patterson would be a luxury move rather than a necessity.
Yet the thought of head coach Kyle Shanahan having both Samuel and Patterson to work with is an extremely enticing one.
Among running backs with at least 150 carries in the regular season, only James Conner (22.7) produced a higher percentage of big plays on targets in the passing game than Patterson (22.6).
Putting him with the play-caller who arguably does the best job of getting offensive players in space would be a match made in heaven.
Christian Kirk to Indianapolis Colts
It's not clear who will be playing quarterback for the Colts in 2022 following the Carson Wentz trade to the Washington Commanders, but that signal-caller will need receiving help beyond 2020 second-round pick Michael Pittman Jr.
With T.Y. Hilton on the downswing of his career and injuries preventing Parris Campbell from making any sort of discernible impact, the Colts are light on legitimate pass-catching weapons.
Kirk could stock the cupboard in that regard, giving Indianapolis a legitimate deep threat who fell 18 yards shy of 1,000 receiving last season and has 11 touchdowns over the past two campaigns.
He registered a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 66.4 per cent of targets (the average for receivers with at least 100 targets was 62).
Among receivers to meet that target threshold, Kirk was fourth in the NFL in 2021 with a burn yards per target average of 13.2, with his ability to separate much needed by an offense that heads into the offseason in questionable shape.
Browns score late touchdown to end Steelers' streak in snowy contest
Nick Chubb ran for a 2-yard touchdown in heavy snow with 57 seconds left, and the Cleveland Browns stunned division rival Pittsburgh 24-19 on Thursday night, ending the Steelers' five-game winning streak.
Chubb's score came in his first game against the AFC North-leading Steelers (8-3) since the running back sustained a season-ending left knee injury on a carry last year at Pittsburgh.
The Browns (3-8) had blown a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter and were down 19-18 before getting the ball back with 3:22 remaining after Pittsburgh punter Corliss Waitman shanked a 16-yarder.
With snow piling up and covering the yard lines on the field, Cleveland's Jameis Winston completed a third-down pass to Jerry Jeudy to the Pittsburgh 9. Two plays later, Chubb barrelled into the end zone.
The Steelers had one last chance, but quarterback Russell Wilson's Hail Mary on the final play was knocked down by Browns safety Grant Delpit in the end zone, touching off a wild celebration at Huntington Bank Field.
The Numbers Game: Man City need a win as Tottenham come to town
Manchester City are in uncharted territory ahead of Tottenham visiting the Etihad Stadium on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola's all-conquering side, who have won four successive Premier League titles, have lost their last four matches in all competitions.
It is the first time in Guardiola's managerial career that he has lost four straight games in all competitions, while it is the first time City have lost that many in a row since 2006, when they lost six on the bounce under Stuart Pearce.
A 2-1 EFL Cup defeat to Tottenham at the end of October started City's poor form, and defeats to Bournemouth, Sporting CP and Brighton followed.
With Liverpool continuing their fine form under Arne Slot, City head into the weekend five points behind the Reds.
Though with Liverpool not in action until Sunday, City can put the pressure back on by seeing off a Spurs team that lost 2-1 to Ipswich Town at home before the international break.
Here, we preview the clash using the best Opta data.
What's expected?
City have won just three of their last 10 Premier League games against Tottenham (D2 L5) and are looking to win consecutive league meetings with them for the first time since April 2019.
Yet despite that indifferent form against Spurs, City are still made the big favourites by Opta's supercomputer, which ranks their chances of victory at 59.5%.
Spurs' win probability comes in at 20.2%, while the draw is at 20.3%.
City's form has seen them drop off when it comes to the Opta supercomputer's forecast for the season, with Liverpool now the favourites to win the title (60.2%).
This match should promise goals, though.
Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League away games against City, winning 3-2 in 2021-22, losing 4-2 in 2022-23 and drawing 3-3 last season. No team has ever scored multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League visits to the Etihad.
Under Guardiola (since 2016-17), City have lost more Premier League games (six) and conceded more Premier League goals (22) against Tottenham than they have against any other opponent.
Saturday's clash also sees two of the league's top three scoring teams this season go head-to-head. Spurs (23) have netted the most goals in the top tier, with City (22) joint-second alongside Brentford.
City have registered the highest xG (22.3), with Ange Postecoglou's team recording the second highest (21.7). These teams have had 401 shots between them across 22 matches this season, so expect entertainment.
Classic City, or is there something wrong?
There has been a tendency for City to take a while to get going in recent years, but they have never looked so short of form as they do now at this stage of a season.
Guardiola is on the longest losing run of his entire managerial career. Though they are the only team to have scored in every Premier League game so far this season, City have lost their last two (1-2 vs Bournemouth and Brighton). They last lost three in a row in the competition in February/March 2016, a run which included a home defeat to Tottenham.
City have already dropped seven points from winning positions this term, while they only dropped 10 from such positions across the entirety of last season.
They have gained a league-leading 13 points from losing positions, though that shows they are falling behind much more often than Guardiola would like.
The loss of Rodri to a season-ending knee injury has not helped, and City may have to dip into the market in January in search of a replacement.
Since the start of last season, City have played 13 league games without Rodri, and they have lost five of them. Their win rate without the Spaniard in the side in that time is 53.8%, while with him in the team it rises to 77.8%.
With Liverpool facing Southampton, City know they need to get back on track quickly, or they might simply have too big of a gap to bridge.
Road rage
Spurs have won just two of their last 11 Premier League away games (D2 L7), winning just once in five on the road this term. Since the start of this spell in March, no side have lost more Premier League away games than Tottenham (seven).
Postecoglou will not be changing his approach for this game, though. Spurs look to get forward at any opportunity, and the statistics back this up.
As a team, Tottenham have made more off-the-ball runs into the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (612), with Dominic Solanke having the most among players (138).
Spurs have also had the most shots inside the box of any Premier League side this term (134).
Tottenham have played more passes/crosses into the opposition box than any other side in the Premier League this season (429). There are 10 players in the division to have made 70+, with Spurs having three of those (Pedro Porro 96, James Maddison 77, Dejan Kulusevski 72).
Postecoglou promised Spurs fans a trophy this season, and their defeat of City in the EFL Cup was a big scalp, but in the league they have lost three of their last six games and are in 10th, though they are only three points off the top six.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City - Erling Haaland
Haaland netted a hat-trick for Norway this week, taking his tally for the season to 22 for club and country.
He returned to scoring form in the Premier League against Brighton, though City could not hold on for the win. While he may not have always shown his best level, Haaland is still betting at a remarkable rate of 1.1 goals per 90 minutes in the top flight this season.
Tottenham - Dejan Kulusevski
No player has created more chances either overall (30) or from open play (25) in the Premier League this season than Kulusevski.
His pace and skill on the counter could be a real asset against City's high line.
NFL: Texans bounce back, extend Cowboys' woes
Joe Mixon's 109 rushing yards and three touchdowns helped get the Houston Texans back on track with Monday's 34-10 win over the floundering Dallas Cowboys.
Houston (7-4) snapped a two-game losing streak behind Mixon's powerful running and a defence that sacked Cowboys' fill-in quarterback Cooper Rush five times and forced two turnovers, including a fumble Derek Barnett returned 28 yards for a touchdown that gave the Texans a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter.
Dallas (3-7) has now lost five straight, its longest skid since dropping seven in a row in 2015, and fell to 0-5 at home. The Cowboys have been outscored by 118 points (187-69) at AT&T Stadium, the third-largest negative differential through five home games in a season in NFL history.
Rush did throw a 64-yard touchdown pass to KaVontae Turpin in his second straight start subbing for an injured Dak Prescott, and finished with a career-high 354 passing yards with one interception while completing 32 of 55 attempts.
C.J. Stroud threw for 257 yards with an interception for Houston, which extended its lead over the second-place Indianapolis Colts to two games in the AFC South.
The Texans never trailed after Mixon ripped off a 45-yard touchdown run on the game's opening drive, and the veteran running back added a 1-yard scoring plunge late in the first quarter to give Houston a 14-0 lead.
Turpin got Dallas on the board by taking a short pass from Rush and breaking free from the Houston defence nine seconds into the second quarter, but the Cowboys were shut out in the second half after pulling to within 17-10 on Brandon Aubrey's 53-yard field goal with just under six minutes left before half-time.
Burnett's strip sack of Rush and return of the resulting fumble helped put the game away with 12:31 left, and Mixon tacked on his final touchdown of the night with 3:16 remaining to cap a 35-yard drive that began after the Texans stopped the Cowboys on downs.
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