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• Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion

  Nashville SC coach Gary Smith is not looking forward to his team facing Lionel Messi for the third time this year, with the Inter Miami star fit and firing ahead of Saturday's MLS clash in Fort Lauderdale.

  A hamstring issue caused Messi to spend almost a month on the sidelines before he returned with a goal in Miami's 2-2 draw with the Colorado Rapids earlier this month.

  The Argentina great was then on the scoresheet again last weekend, as Miami ended a five-game winless run with an entertaining 3-2 success against Sporting Kansas City.

  With Messi also scoring in both legs of a CONCACAF Champions Cup triumph over Nashville in March, Smith is sick of the sight of the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner.

  "I'm a little bit disappointed that Lionel Messi has gotten himself back into tip-top sharp form as we come back into town again!" Smith said.

  "I think that what we can safely say is when he's in the group, there's a very, very different feel and look and inspiration about that team."

  Nashville are winless in three games since beating Charlotte FC 2-1 last month, with Daniel Gazdag's last-gasp strike condemning them to a 2-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Union last time out.

  Smith believes his team are at least giving themselves a chance of picking up results, adding: "When we've got our best group on the field — and we need to have our best group on the field — we're very competitive."

  Miami's win over Kansas City ensured they will enter the weekend top of the Eastern Conference standings, and boss Gerardo Martino is pleased to see them setting the pace.

  "Being first in the standings is comforting, especially with a long week ahead," Martino said. "It was very important for us to get out of that rut of getting ties, losses, and making mistakes."

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Inter Miami – Lionel Messi

  Messi has been involved in at least one goal in each of his first five league games of the season, the second time he's done so in his career, having achieved the feat in six straight matches with Barcelona to begin 2013-14 in LaLiga.

  The Argentine has also managed at least one goal involvement in each of his eight appearances for Miami across all competitions in 2024, including two goals and one assist in two matches against Nashville.

  Nashville SC – Jacob Shaffelburg

  Shaffelburg has assisted each of Nashville's last two MLS goals, one in each of their last two matches.

  Previously, he had only recorded one assist in his first 40 regular-season matches with Nashville. Will his purple patch continue in Florida?

  MATCH PREDICTION – INTER MIAMI WIN

  Nashville have only managed one win in their last 15 away games against MLS opponents across all competitions (six draws, eight defeats).

  That run, which stretches back to June 2023, includes a draw and a loss against Miami, who are also unbeaten in five straight head-to-head meetings between the teams (two wins, three draws).

  Last week's 3-2 win over Sporting KC was the 11th time Miami have scored three or more goals in their 22 games with Messi making an appearance, across all competitions. They have only scored three or more goals on 15 occasions in their 134 all-time games without the Argentine. He should be involved on Saturday, and that makes them favourites. 

  OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

  Inter Miami – 36.6%

  Nashville SC – 33.8%

  Draw – 29.6%

• Sheffield United v Burnley: Kompany wants fearless approach

  Vincent Kompany knows his team need to take more risks as Burnley prepare for another huge game in the fight for Premier League safety when they face fellow strugglers Sheffield United.

  Burnley dropped two points in a 1-1 draw with Brighton at Turf Moor last weekend, as Arijanet Muric's own goal denied them a win that would have inched them closer to safety.

  While Luton Town and Everton both suffered defeats, Nottingham Forest's draw means that Burnley sit six points from safety, though they are four points better off than the Blades ahead of Saturday's game.

  Asked about the approach his side will take against another team in the relegation zone, Kompany said: "Sheffield is another different game for us, it has a bit of a cup final feeling to it as well. We know we have to go there, attack the game, and show no fear.

  "Going there on Saturday, we have nothing to lose. We approach it with no fear, we have to show our strengths and go there to play our hearts out and run our socks off. We're playing to be in the Premier League and that's our goal."

  United head into Saturday's match with their survival hopes having been further diminished by a 2-0 defeat to Brentford.

  After failing to win any of their last eight games, Chris Wilder explained how his side has struggled to cope with the demands of the Premier League.

  "Like us, they've [Burnley] found results difficult to come by, and they've taken the beatings when they've had to – as have we," Wilder said.

  "They've picked up points recently. We’ve not picked up enough points that I believe our performances have deserved. We need to marry up decent performances with a big result. That's what we’re there to try and get.

  "Both teams are after three points, I think we all realise where we are with that. We're in it to win it, and so will they be."

  PLAYERS TO WATCH

  Sheffield United – Oli McBurnie

  McBurnie has been involved in eight goals in his last eight Premier League home games, scoring six and assisting twice. The only game in this run in which he has not registered a goal or assist was in the Blades' 6-0 defeat to Arsenal last month.

  Burnley – Josh Brownhill

  Brownhill has been directly involved in two goals in his last three Premier League appearances (one goal, one assist), as many as he managed in his 16 before that, with his goal last week opening the scoring.

  MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW

  United have lost just one of their last 20 home league games against Burnley (W14 D5), going down 3-2 in December 2008. They have won both of their Premier League games against the Clarets at Bramall Lane.

  However, only one of the five Premier League games between two newly promoted teams this season have been won by the home team (D1 L3), though that occurred in the reverse fixture between Burnley and United back in December (5-0).

  Since a 1-0 win against Brentford, the Blades are winless in seven home league games (D3 L4), conceding at least twice in each match. Only twice has a team conceded 2+ goals in eight consecutive Premier League home games – Wolves in 2011-12 (11) and Norwich in 2019 (nine).

  United have also conceded 84 goals in their 32 Premier League games this season; it is the most at this stage ever in a Premier League campaign, and the most the Blades have conceded overall in a league campaign since 1954-55 (86 in 42 games).

  Burnley, meanwhile, have dropped 24 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, with only Brentford (30) losing more.

  OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

  Sheffield United – 31.4%

  Burnley – 38.8%

  Draw – 29.8%

• Haaland, Palmer, Watkins? Assessing the Premier League's Golden Boot candidates

  There is a thrilling three-horse race for the Premier League title as we approach the run-in, but there is also another tussle on the cards.

  The Golden Boot is up for grabs, with Erling Haaland having not quite hit the same heights as he did last season, when he broke the Premier League record for goals, with 36.

  Manchester City star Haaland is, as it stands, level with his former club-mate Cole Palmer at the top of the competition’s scoring charts, with 20 goals apiece.

  Palmer, who will go up against his old club in the FA Cup semi-finals this weekend, moved way up in the charts after he netted four times in Chelsea’s 6-0 rout of Everton on Monday.

  But with Palmer and Haaland in FA Cup action, there are plenty of other Golden Boot candidates looking to take advantage and nudge themselves to the front of the pack.

  Using Opta data, we assess the numbers behind the players vying for this individual accolade.

  Erling Haaland (20)

  Sure, Haaland might not quite have scaled the same heights as last season, but he has still scored 20 goals in 26 league games, scoring a goal every 109 minutes on average.

  However, the Norwegian has actually underperformed his expected goals (xG) of 23.7 – that 3.7 differential is actually the biggest xG underperformance of any player on this list.

  What about Haaland’s expected goals on target (xGOT)? That metric can be used to measure the quality of a player’s finishing, and Haaland’s xGOT of 20.3 suggests the 23-year-old is about on track based on where he has been placing his shots.

  Haaland has also chipped in with five assists, giving him an overall goal contributions tally of 25. He has created 28 goalscoring chances for team-mates across the campaign.

  Of course, Haaland is a penalty box poacher – 16 of his goals have come from inside the area, while 14 of them have come with his stronger left foot.

   

  Cole Palmer (20)

  Palmer has stolen the show this season for Chelsea, and is arguably the Blues’ driving force behind their push for European football.

  Having signed from City last summer, Palmer has made an instant impact despite only playing 27 times – he averages a goal every 103 minutes, which is better than any of the other candidates featured here.

  He scored a perfect hat-trick in the first half of the demolition of Everton, before adding a fourth from the penalty spot after the break – that was Palmer’s ninth successfully converted spot-kick in the league this term.

  Unlike Haaland, Palmer has overperformed his xG (15), with his non-penalty xG coming in at 7.9, while also proving his creative talents with nine assists from 53 chances created, which ranks behind only Mohamed Salah (60) of players featured here.

  Those 29 goal contributions are matched by only one other Premier League player…

  Ollie Watkins (19)

  One goal behind Palmer and Haaland, and someone who will be looking to get ahead when Aston Villa face Bournemouth on Sunday, is England international Watkins.

  A deft chip in Villa’s brilliant 2-0 win over Arsenal last time out brought up Watkins’ 19th top-flight goal of the campaign – he is now the club’s joint-leading scorer in a single season in the Premier League, matching Christian Benteke (2012-13).

   

  What separates Watkins from Palmer and Haaland is his minutes per goal ratio – Watkins has netted every 147 minutes on average, which is 44 minutes worse off than Palmer and 38 than Haaland.

  However, with 10 assists, the former Brentford forward leads the goal contributions charts along with Palmer. Interestingly, however, Watkins’ assists have come from an expected assists (xA) of just 3.6, suggesting he has been the benefactor of some particularly excellent finishing from his Villa team-mates.

  A goal against Bournemouth on Sunday would see Watkins become just the third English player to score 20+ goals and assist 10+ goals in a 38-game season, along with Frank Lampard in 2009-10 (22 goals, 14 assists) and Harry Kane in 2020-21 (23 goals, 14 assists)

  Watkins has proved to be a deadly finisher under Unai Emery, though the trick for opposing defences could be to prevent him getting space in the area to begin with, given that all 19 of his goals have come from inside the box. Obviously, that is easier said than done.

  Mohamed Salah (17)

  Liverpool will be hoping to bounce back from their damaging defeat to Crystal Palace last week when they take on Fulham on Sunday, and key to the Reds’ clinching success in Jurgen Klopp’s farewell tour will surely be the form of Salah.

  Since sustaining an injury at the Africa Cup of Nations, Salah has not quite hit top form, but he has still netted 17 goals across 26 league appearances this term, though five of those have been penalties.

   

  With an xGOT of 18.4, Salah can point to some above average goalkeeping as a reason for a small underperformance.

  Creatively, Salah has been excellent, providing nine assists and crafting 60 opportunities, but the Reds will need him at his very best in the run-in.

  Alexander Isak (17)

  Isak was at the double in Newcastle United’s 4-0 thrashing of Tottenham last time out. He has now scored 12 goals in as many Premier League appearances at St James’ Park this season.

  His opener against Spurs saw him become the fourth player to score in six consecutive Premier League home matches for Newcastle, with only Andrew Cole (eight) and Alan Shearer (15) having longer such runs, with Isak now level with Les Ferdinand’s best such run. The only other Swede to have netted as many Premier League goals in a single campaign as Isak has this term is the great Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored 17 times for Manchester United in 2016-17.

  Only Palmer has a better minutes per goal ratio than Isak (104) of the players on this list, while he has overperformed his xG by 1.1.

  Isak has not provided quite as much creatively as others on this list, providing just one assist, but his 28.3 per cent shot conversion rate tops this list by some distance, with Palmer (24.4) next best.

  Dominic Solanke (17)

  Another player on 17 goals, and the final selection here, is Bournemouth talisman Solanke.

  His 18.1 per cent shot conversion rate may short fall of the other stars on this list, but Solanke is having a fantastic season, having become Bournemouth’s top Premier League goalscorer in a single campaign, surpassing Joshua King’s tally of 16 from the 2016-17 season.

  Only one of Solanke’s strikes has come from the spot, with the 26-year-old outperforming his 15.7 non-penalty xG, though his minutes per goal ratio of 167 is quite a stark drop-off from most of his Golden Boot rivals.

  The Chasing Pack

  Former Golden Boot winner Son Heung-min (15), Jarrod Bowen (15), Bukayo Saka (14) and Phil Foden (14) are all well in the hunt.

  The fact that 10 players are within six goals of each other shows just how tight this Golden Boot race is shaping up to be, though the chasing pack are running out of time if they are to make a late push for the award.