NFL

NFL Talking Point: Can Jaguars' comeback kings get to Patrick Mahomes?

By Sports Desk January 21, 2023

The Kansas City Chiefs can know one thing heading into this weekend's Divisional round: the Jacksonville Jaguars will not give up.

Last week's comeback win against the Los Angeles Chargers was the second-biggest turnaround in NFL history, having trailed 27-0 at one stage and 27-7 at halftime before winning 31-30, but that sort of rally is becoming commonplace for the Jaguars.

They head to Arrowhead Stadium on a six-game winning run but have been down at halftime in three of those games.

The Jaguars have been down by double-digits at halftime in six games this season, yet they have recovered to win three times. No other team have three comebacks from 10-point halftime deficits this year, with that tying a league-wide single-season high since Jacksonville entered the NFL in 1995.

There was understandable focus following the Chargers game on quarterback Trevor Lawrence's recovery as he followed four interceptions without a touchdown with four TD passes without a pick.

However, the relentlessness of this never-say-die Jaguars team might be best epitomised by its defense.

That unit gave up just three points after halftime against the Chargers, setting the stage for Lawrence to lead the offense back into the contest. Across their past four games – all wins – opponents have scored a combined nine second-half points.

Regardless of any lead, the Chiefs – and particularly the Chiefs' offensive line – will be made to work right up until the final snap on Saturday.

The Jaguars have registered 319 QB pressures in 2022, behind only the Miami Dolphins in that regard (325), while their pressure rate of 43.9 per cent leads the league.

That pressure rate was up at 46.8 per cent against the Chargers – albeit the Chargers have allowed comfortably more QB pressures than any other team this season (357).

But Justin Herbert, clearly a man used to passing under pressure, was restricted significantly by the Jaguars' pass rush.

He entered the Wild Card matchup with a completion rate of 64.9 per cent when throwing under pressure – the second-best mark of QBs with 100 or more such attempts – yet completed only seven of his 15 attempts against the Jaguars (46.7 per cent) despite having an open target on 12 of those passes.

As the tide really turned in the second half and this harrying took its toll, Herbert was 10-for-19 on all attempts and was sacked twice.

The Chiefs will consider themselves a very different prospect – with some justification.

They have this year allowed a pressure rate of 37.0 per cent, which is below the league average of 38.5 per cent, and Mahomes has actually already faced this Jacksonville defense at Arrowhead once this year.

Although Mahomes' completion rate of 57.1 per cent under pressure is below the league average of 58.3 per cent for the year, he completed eight of 12 attempts against the Jaguars (66.7 per cent).

That was one of the six games in which the Jaguars were down by 10 or more at halftime, and without effectively getting to Mahomes, who threw for 331 yards and four TDs, a second-half effort fell short.

Indeed, each of the Jaguars' three 10-point second-half comebacks this year have come at home. They are 3-0 in Jacksonville in such scenarios but 0-3 on the road. Going into Kansas City will make a repeat extremely tough.

Yet the last time the Chiefs blew a double-digit halftime lead was in their last playoff game.

The Cincinnati Bengals went to Arrowhead for last year's AFC Championship Game, trailed by 11 points through two quarters and won in overtime.

That win saw Joe Burrow – the first overall pick a year before Lawrence – really announce himself on the biggest stage. However, the Jaguars' hopes of claiming their own underdog victory may rely more on their success in stopping the elite QB on the other side of the field.

Related items

  • Cowboys quarterback Prescott reportedly expected to miss multiple weeks with hamstring injury Cowboys quarterback Prescott reportedly expected to miss multiple weeks with hamstring injury

    The path to the play-offs is now even tougher for the Dallas Cowboys.

    Quarterback Dak Prescott will reportedly miss several weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in Sunday's 27-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

    The severity of the injury was determined following an MRI, and reported Monday from multiple media outlets.

    Prescott is planning to get a second opinion, and the Cowboys have not decided if they will place him on injured reserve, which would keep him on the sideline a minimum of four games.

     

    Prescott, who signed a record-breaking, $240million contract hours before this season's opener, suffered the injury late in the third quarter.

    He was replaced by Cooper Rush, and the seven-year backup will get the start this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, but couldn't rally Dallas all the way back.

    The Cowboys ended up losing their third straight game to drop to 3-5, which matches the total number of losses the team had each of the last three seasons.

    They now sit in third place in the NFC East, 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Washington Commanders.

    Rush has found some success as a fill-in starter for the Cowboys, though, the 30-year-old hasn't been forced into the starting role since 2022.

    In six career starts for Dallas, he's gone 5-1 with 1,281 passing yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and an 83.6 rating.

    There is some good news for the Cowboys, though, as star defensive end Micah Parsons is likely to return this Sunday after missing the last four games with a high-ankle sprain.

  • Cowboys quarterback Prescott expected to miss multiple weeks with hamstring injury Cowboys quarterback Prescott expected to miss multiple weeks with hamstring injury

    The path to the play-offs is now even tougher for the Dallas Cowboys.

    Quarterback Dak Prescott will reportedly miss several weeks with a hamstring injury sustained in Sunday's 27-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

    The severity of the injury was determined Monday following an MRI.

    Prescott is planning to get a second opinion, and the Cowboys have not decided if they will place him on injured reserve, which would keep him on the sideline a minimum of four games.

     

    Prescott, who signed a record-breaking, $240million contract hours before this season's opener, suffered the injury late in the third quarter.

    He was replaced by Cooper Rush, and the seven-year backup will get the start this Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Rush completed 13-of-25 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons, but couldn't rally Dallas all the way back.

    The Cowboys ended up losing their third straight game to drop to 3-5, which matches the total number of losses the team had each of the last three seasons.

    They now sit in third place in the NFC East, 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Washington Commanders.

    Rush has found some success as a fill-in starter for the Cowboys, though, the 30-year-old hasn't been forced into the starting role since 2022.

    In six career starts for Dallas, he's gone 5-1 with 1,281 passing yards with seven touchdowns, four interceptions and an 83.6 rating.

    There is some good news for the Cowboys, though, as star defensive end Micah Parsons is likely to return this Sunday after missing the last four games with a high-ankle sprain.

  • Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

    We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.

    On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively. 

    It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.

    Pep Guardiola's champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola's Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.

    But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.

    Unlucky losers: Arsenal

    The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.

    However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).

    The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.

    Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.

    Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.

     

    Lucky winners: Southampton 

    Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.

    Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.

    While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.

    It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.

     

    Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace

    Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.

    Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.

    They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half. 

    With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.

    There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.

     

    Lucky winners: Chelsea 

    Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.

    Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.

    United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.

    Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.

    United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).

    Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.

     

© 2024 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.